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So here we go AKB... we see the bear strategy... to keep this focused on near term revs... to continue pretending that all material developments to the contrary are irrelevant... you are correct it is quite humorous from a certain perspective to see the rationales that must be imagined to keep this a failing storage company thesis in the face of overwhelming developments to the contrary... jmo... glta...
I have never felt more confident regarding this investment than I do right now. Many of our most knowledgeable longs share this opinion. We don't have time to banter back and forth on a message board, but that relatively diminished activity should not be misinterpreted as a loss in faith of the bull investment thesis... while we enjoyed the 67 cent rise on 10/02... the closing pps of 2.72 continues to grossly undervalue S3D... better days lie ahead... Friday was merely a taste of that... jmo... glta...
I do not expect the rev ramp to get robust until 2016... I had hoped for 2015... but I underestimated the complexity of scaling the ip... in 2014 ANY was put together as an entity merging 4 into 1.... in 2015 the scaffolding of the scale out is being built... in 2016 we will begin to see a robust revenue ramp that will continue for several years unless a buyout occurs... which is most likely.... imo...
I expect balance sheet issues to be resolved before the release of q3 financials in mid November. And yes this means a financing will occur. The participants in the financing and the terms will be of considerable interest to bulls and bears. We will see which investment theses the financing tends to confirm...
I expect q3 revs to come in a little over 20 mil... this number will not confirm the bear thesis of declining revs and it will not confirm the bull thesis of ramping revs... thus it will be unsatisfying to both camps... and the debate will rage on... imo...
As the ANY is a disruptive software company thesis gains momentum in the days ahead the price to sales ratio will shift from 1:1 to somewhere between 4 and 10 to 1. Thus the pps will rise significantly even if q3 revs are not robust. And I agree with JTFM that they will not be particularly robust... imo...
The webinar invite from 10/01 supports the competing investment thesis that has brought long horizon investors here. Our thesis is that S3D is a software enterprise that has disruptive ip which will play an important role in the paradigm shifts to cloud computing and the IoT. The evidence in the days ahead will overwhelmingly support this thesis... imo...
S3D is currently priced by the market as if it were an undercapitalized failing storage company. Up until now due to multiple factors this thesis has held the day. Because of this ANY stock is trading at roughly a 1:1 price to sales ratio. This investment thesis ran into the headwinds your post refers to on 10/01. The market clearly reacted on 10/02. An adjustment to this thesis has begun and the failing storage thesis will be increasingly difficult to defend... imo
excellent post... thanks...
Good to hear from you. Welcome back.
Thank you for your thoughtful post. S3D is making significant strides toward the monetization of glassware. I believe history will show q2 to be a trough and not a trend regarding revenues. Profitability a achieved sometime in 2016... jmo... glta...
Navy paying MSFT 9 million for xp support...
Navy deal contains option to extend xp support through to June 2017 at an aggregate price tag of 31 million...
"XP issue not restricted to Navy" ..."44% of corporations still have windows xp installed on at least one PC"...
http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/26/technology/microsoft-windows-xp-navy-contract/
Legacy software is the issue... GW solves this problem... efficiently and relatively inexpensively comparable to other options...
Two thumbs up for this post! Thanks.
Observation is spot on. Manipulation on low volume, accumulation by shrewd and disciplined investors in the afternoon. Not your typical retail investor. The float is churning and in the process being transferred from retail to pros... jmo... glta...
when it comes to monetizing Glassware the game is in the 1st inning not the 9th... those trying to proclaim a final score are way too premature... sure the visitors scored first in the early innings... but the home team's middle of the order sluggers are now coming to the plate... a long, long way to go on this one before a winner can be proclaimed...
Nutanix required 11 quarters of monetization to reach a 200 mil run rate... GW is only in its 7th quarter... mid-November 2016 we can expect the release of financials for S3D in its 11th quarter of monetizing glassware... by then maybe we will be ready for the 7th inning stretch... jmo... glta...
the first g-series device was created for education... think chromebooks and Google's chrome os...
this g-series device was created for Microsoft to solve the issue of legacy apps which have held up migration to newer windows versions especially for xp users... Microsoft is going to make sure their xp customers understand this technology because it is going to help them keep those customers in the Microsoft family and upgrade their devices to win10... the carrot for the customer is their ability to keep using their legacy apps many of which have years... even decades of data, etc... this is a really, really big deal for Microsoft... 250 million devices at stake currently utilizing xp... and Microsoft on the hunt for 1 billion devices to run win10 within the next 3 years... GW2.0 just added 250 mil to the pool of potential candidates... potentially 25% of Microsoft's goal...
Q: how many xp devices can be migrated to win10?
A: a lot more than before this g-series device became generally available...
think about this for a moment... with the two g-series devices S3D has now solved a problem for Google and a problem for Microsoft... hmmmm... jmo... glta...
yep... remember the msft staffers response to Bramfitt's question - why Spiffy? - "because they can do things we cannot"...
remember MK's tweet last summer stating clearly that GW2.0 adds significant value to both Win10 and Azure???...
250 mil xp enslaved devices now have a path to freedom and an upgrade to win10... and MSFT has a large pool of customers that it can keep and add towards it goal of 1 billion devices using win10...
Mark Bowker, Senior Analyst, Enterprise Strategy Group, "Also, I believe the simplicity of [GW2.0} application virtualization methodology, along with the ease it provides for mobilizing legacy applications, makes the G-Series a game changer."
"Senior Analyst Mark Bowker focuses on all things related to enterprise mobility, virtualization, and cloud computing. Mark researches cloud and virtualization technologies and evaluates the impact the solutions have (or will have) on IT strategy and the broader marketplace. His other research areas include data center management, application workload deployment in next-generation data centers, and the external influences driving adoption of data center technologies. Prior to joining ESG, Mark ran the IT organization for a business consulting and technology services company. A Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer, Mark is experienced in designing, implementing, and expanding network and system infrastructure for global organizations."
"Also relatively quiet there, patience set in"
Very much agree with your assessment at least as far as the ANY long-horizon investors I communicate with... there is a level of confidence, patience and steadfastness that has set in which is untethered from the day-to-day share price fluctuations of ANY... where does this calm confidence come from? quite simply from the vast due diligence done by this group of investors who know the ip quite well and who understand its potential role in the shift to cloud computing... this confidence is found in S3D management as well as in many long-horizon investors... for those with little more to go on than the most recent financial statement and the volatility of the stock price this can prove quite perplexing... jmo... glta...
ANY has certainly provided an opportunity to develop patience for long horizon investors as well as an exercise in developing the "conviction to hold"... the following article by Ian Cassel is worth a read imo... as it pertains to ANY as well as many other microcap stocks... the conviction to hold during times like these is not easily managed... jmo... glta...
http://microcapclub.com/2014/08/the-conviction-to-hold/
Good point... Docker has become a container darling precisely because it is open source and techies are able to kick the tires... this is what created its buzz... glassware, being proprietary, has not been available until now... the G-series device along with GW on Azure changes that equation... soon (a word that is almost as useful as "imminent") techies will have the opportunity to kick the tires on glassware as well...
...assessing by the comments of prior GW tire kickers... this release and availability to techies en masse has the potential of creating quite a stir... jmo... glta...
Thanks much for your informative post... this is an excellent example of the BASF effect regarding glassware... Novarad's product is Novaglass... it is their product... they take credit for it... as they should... they market it... as they should... glassware is utilized by and enhances this offering to the healthcare industry... glassware is and will continue to be used in this BASF-like way in a variety of settings... eventually this will show-up in S3D revenue... until then it remains somewhat invisible to the investment community... jmo... glta...
Not true. Wishful thinking perhaps on the part of the bears... While he did leave the ihub message board as did many others because it was overrun by nonsense and noise... the discussions have moved to other quieter locations... where reason can be heard without shouting... the stock price admittedly has run aground... yet the development of the business continues unabated... the underlying business that is S3D is developing quite nicely and is going to surprise some folks one of these days... jmo... glta...
Great story! Love that S3D is a part of it... and love what the project is doing for education... thanks for posting that link...
Hmm.... very interesting.... thanks!
Great post! Thanks.
"We can go broke using your philosophy. If we do not get compensated for our services what good is commentary saying it is wonderful?"
Wow... that is a pretty remarkable leap... I never said anything about S3D not getting compensated for services... nor is that in ANYway part of my "philosophy"... as I said... revenue is a lagging indicator... my DD on this entity is extremely thorough... I am confident that revenue is on the way... if that makes me a "dreamer" then so be it... but let's not pretend that I don't think revenue is important... revenue is what investing is all about...
Your point is well taken. For me the most important element of that list of quotes is that it represents people who have interacted with the ip... revenues are a lagging indicator... the perspective of early adopters is a leading indicator... jmo... glta...
Correct. Gw becomes available through Azure... globally available through Azure to be used by anyone who wishes to do so through the long reach of Azure... the #2 cloud platform on the planet, the #1 for business and the fastest growing. Through Azure and the G series device Gw begins it's journey to ubiquity. The "tire kicking" phase will commerce... eventually a buzz will build... and revenue will follow. None of this will occur fast enough for retail investors... but it will be worth the wait for those with fortitude and patience. It is a really big deal. That does NOT necessarily mean there will be much iimmediate mpact on pps... jmo... glta...
Gw's appearance on Azure is reportedly "imminent"... or was that "eminent"... (-: whenever it occurs it will be worth the wait... jmo... glta...
Excellent post! Thanks. I find it very helpful to be reminded from time to time what industry professionals who have actually interacted with the IP have to say about it...
I agree... it has grown beyond what Dell can manage now that MSFT has stepped into the picture... prior to that Dell did have its eyes on ANY... ANY is working with many including Dell... what we retail investors know about what is going on is just the tip of the iceberg... jmo... glta...
kind of leaves one scratching the old cranium doesn't it...
thanks much for taking the time to reply... and wish you all the best on your travels... you are our refresh expert... perhaps much to your chagrin...
so it sounds to me like the refresh process will be highly profitable to S3D, but also somewhat complex and play out over a period of perhaps a few years... it will begin with a reassessment of sites... likely there will some that are obviously ripe for this particular refresh... and those sites will probably be first... and then depending on manpower, etc... between Novarad and S3D... maybe 40-50 sites will be refreshed per quarter over a period of 2-3 years... ??? all speculation of course...
and from your post I gather there are elements that will part of a refresh, elements such as storage which could become new sales... and always the possibility for some sites that the refresh will be renegotiated into a brand new IT contract if entire new systems are called for...
finally we know that this is growing... the 400 sites have become 430 with Novarad... and now there are an additional 200 sites which are not directly Novarad, but which somehow tangentially grew out of the Novarad refresh project... so as the market is getting a taste for what S3D can do the market appears to be liking what it sees and asking for more...
I am guessing that we may see a g-series device for healthcare soon... as always... jmo... glta...
really appreciate your response...
thanks... good news... I look forward to it... I believe it will be an eye opener...
many folks do not wish to acknowledge institutional investment in ANY... this report is as of close of business on 6/30... 2+ months ago... I have observed a great deal of whale/bear samba dancing since then... it's a two-step... bears drive the price lower encouraging retail investors to divest... whales feed off the bottom... will be interesting to see what the 9/30 numbers indicate... but we will probably have to wait until December for that... jmo... glta...
Many longs no longer post here regularly... my own posts are becoming fewer and farther between... I can assure anyone who cares to hear that this in no way diminishes my personal stake in ANY or my strongly held belief that ANY is an incredible risk/reward speculative stock that holds the possibility of producing enormous returns for those with the courage to hold it during these dark days of imo artificially suppressed stock prices...
What is knowable about ANY the company is truly remarkable... and while the financials are not pretty... the partnerships, the validation of the technology, the importance and the need for what the technology does... these things are off the charts... Novarad went from Novaglass to one year later signing up for the entire S3D product line in a 400 medical site refresh... that has now grown to 430, plus an additional agreement for another 200 medical sites that is not directly Novarad, but is tangentially related to it... the details of which we do not yet have... 630 medical sites to be refreshed with ANY products... it's a very significant pattern and development...
Of course, nothing is bigger than the MSFT connection... imo... and GW is about to go live with GW on Azure which follows the initiation of sales for the G-Series glassware device... GW is soon to go live and become accessible to many... the day of scaling GW is at hand...
The pie ANY is competing for is a very big pie... apps reported to be a 500 bil industry by SB... cloud computing reported to be a trillion dollar industry... the internet of things reported to be a multi-trillion dollar industry... lot's of players trying to compete in this space... ANY has first mover advantage for a significant segment of this space... even a 1% percent market share in the future would be a huge multi-bagger return for current shareholders...
Anyone still holding ANY shares is a strong investor with fortitude and the ability to set emotions aside... you have my respect... the stock is under siege... the business is developing nicely... better days lie ahead for long horizon investors... jmo... glta...
Thank you for an excellent post -several excellent posts today actually... much appreciated...
An excellent and well-reasoned post... thanks for taking the time... you won't be shocked... I presume... if the poster you are responding to fails to match your high standards in his reply... wishing you the best with your investments...
Excellent interview. Worth a look from ANY invested here... ignore the noise.... jmo... glta...