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bullrider // Amedica had the clearance for K161405 on 19 March
They sat on it or better put, there was no rush to release a PR. I don't agree with management often but on this I agree with their tactical methodology 100%. Word from FOB SLC is insiders are making have been making real time purchases and the real news will be released when the timing is exactly right.
Clay // Nice analysis of yesterday's and today's chart. I ran stat analysis on the one, five and fifteen. One minute candles ---> nice consolidation pattern running up. $1.07/$1.08. Held very nicely. With the tight consolidation and relatively high short position, the slightest hint of FDA news on CSC CASCADE and AMDA will mirror CPXX. Very similar patterns.
Starting to implement and use RBFNN for prediction approximations. All about catching that fast convergence. Are you doing anything with neuronet analysis?
Seems like an eternity, but as my Discrete Mathematics and Algorithms prof use to say, "numbers don't lie, only people do". Again nice call on today's chart.
Also, good to go for the podcast. I'll reach out to you to discuss the parameters of the discussions due to certain NDA restrictions.
Paying down/off the Herc Loan
Is not material and does not require an 8-K. The company could simply disclose in the next Q CC. However, a PR disclosing the elimination in full of the Herc loan could occur. The working theory is Amedica will keep this very close and ONLY release when CSC is cleared thus catching short sellers and further "assisting" their friends holdings the warrant conversion.
Taking care of ones friends is a vital aspect in this business. Bidirectional flow.
Disclosure: We have not sold any portion of our position and have averaged up.
SEC Schedule 13's should be filed by COB next week
10days from trade date not settlement date. Sabby?
Atlanta // Breath brother
The lumbar news is actually a very big deal. Warrants exercised in full, Herc loan paid in full, zero long term debt liabilities on the balance sheet, and they are sitting on a pile of cash. I've and have my issues with decisions by management but the company really couldn't be positioned better to launch CSC and China.
Cash flow positive coming. I got your PM, so PM me your email and we can chat offline.
Clay // I will consider your request to do an interview for your podcast.
Given the obvious need for confidentially (I know you understand given your use of an alias), I have an NDA in place as part of my employment agreement. Let me check on a few things and I'll get back to you when I'm back in the office.
Boston // Clay was here yesterday COB
From Michigan to Boca to Connecticut to New Jersey, the minions will scalp their 10-15%. It is however good to have friends who have access to the "forums". Bottom line, they are like a pimple on the ass of an elephant.
HOOAH, Clay, HOOAH!
"Clay" // Really, a nasty private message.
How about you share with the world who is paying to generate those highly polished and well written videos?
Better yet your relationship with groups of short sellers.
No ill will brother. Just an honest guy making an honest living.
"Clay" // Who's paying your fee to generate Amedica charts?
Say hello to Rob.
GTC @ $12
Tell Tim, clay says hello. You have drill next weekend? HOOAH
aSnap // how's your friend doing after her surgery?
I wish her a speedy and healthy recovery. How long she expected out of work?
Mike // PR today @ 415 EST
Speculation right now is company is silent due to material events causing quiet period. Ran stats model and 82% chance acquisition target with buyout offer on the table. Intend to confirm with company but thus far company has gone dark.
B // message out
What group would pay for such charting expertise?
ATL Man // Good things coming.
I don't want to post certain aspects but know there a few things coming. Company is quite for a reason...Lock your shares up. Stay tuned.
Boston // Give me a few hours and I will.
Boston // PM me.
Haven't checked if "Clay Trader" and his buds have put out a "chart"
Been slammed in meetings all day, but rest assured if Tim, CT and his "friends" show, they will get hammered. There's a hedge in Princeton who alone intends to take a 12% position. Big money rolling in and it's only just Monday. This will be north of $7 very soon.
Congrats. Based on my statistical modeling we were 7-14days and today is day 11.
Congrats longs. Now my suggestion is if you're long, set high limit orders to force short sellers to drive the price higher. My group has two limit orders at $10 and $12. We will not entertain selling any portion until north of $12 per share. OEM, JV, China, Japan as well as positive cash flow and EBITDA all in the near future. Possible acquisition by year end as well.
Watch how quickly sentiment changes to positive.
Medtronic INFUSE --->nerve pain, infection and an increased risk of cancer.
This article is from August 2015 but still extremely relevant as legal claims against Medtronic reach all time highs. It is easy surmise after reading this article why a calculated war has been waged against Amedica to:
1) delay their product's FDA approval.
2) keep their products out of operating suites.
3) conduct global cyber psyops to spread disinformation.
The company and its execs haven't done themselves any favors by not purchasinh shares, private placement dilution with unscrupulous PE/Hedge. However one could argue Amedica wouldn't have had to seek financings from shylocks had they had a clear path to market. If clearance is obtained, there is ZERO chance of Amedica not being aquired.
https://www.drugwatch.com/infuse/
Boston // Yeah homey Medtronic up da creek
But then again not really. The reality is they will not be held liable if some doc has gone "off res" and uses a lumbar product for the cervical spine. Good luck proving Medtronic reps pushed off label use. UCLA however has already paid through the anus due to the Weiss and Lew cases. The crux of the decission with UCLA Spine Center is they failed to disclose the financial arrangements between the Doc's and Medtronic as well as failure to obtain patient consent for off label use.
Bottom line, off label usage is legal and if applied properly really can work. I remember reading a journal that one of Payton Mannings neck surgeries involved off label device. Baring complete failure of a given product, if the product worked properly, but was inappropriately used by the end user, the manufacturer shouldn't be held responsible. Preemption however is certainly an unsavory defense, but that's why Medtronic general council get paid the big bucks.
I here this firm is top notch should Medtronic ever need local council in North Carlolina. Haha couldn't resist.
http://www.balbrenner.com/phone/index.html
Boston // Last Post Today as it's Sunday and I'm going climbing today
Amedica is carrying approx only $9.5 million in TOTAL debt and its decreasing rapidly monthly. On the corporate grand scheme, $9.5mil is most company's quarterly debt payment. Now factor in a soon to be "cleared" product along with published data that asserts and establishes a new gold standard for an approx $2billion addressable market.
New OEM's and distributors. Positive cash flow and positive net income. Total debt liabilities will be satisfied. EBITDA won't mislead. If CSC can grab just a conservative 10% of the $2billion market, with zero debt, Amedica will be a cash cow. What do you think Amedica's established science, patents, sales, and market share would be worth in the rocket fueled synergies of the ultra competitive M&A world?
At what price would it take the Sonny Bal show to decide yes, Amedica would be better served as a subsidiary of K2M, Kycera, Zimmer, Stryker or another previously undisclosed player such as J&J? Some greedy retail shorts gonna get caught on the wrong side of this trade and that's sad because I hate anyone to loose money, especially if it was avoidable.
Boston
No I have not been over to the S-twits in a while. Don't care for it. I've certainly read some knowledgeable posts but that's few and far between. Again my opinion is pretty simple: A Hyperactive financial Twitter feed frequented by 18yo's with his/her first Robinhood trading account or the middle aged white male who listens to Howard Stern and Jim Cramer daily and thinks having a Gordon Gecko avatar is cool. Again there's some smart dudes there, just to much crap to sort through to find the gems.
Back to the Snapple dude. S/he has made some rather accurate assertions in the past. Not to say they weren't based on luck, but they were certainly correct with regard to the FDA. Time will tell...As for the pref conversations. Seems your trade data assumptions make sense as the volume would coincide with amounts remaining. Conversion appears to be over as well. I also added on Friday.
As for the retail shorts, history has provided them a blue print to make money but their ignorance and greed will get them into trouble. Remember even with dilution Amedica is still very much a low floater and my gut instinct tells me things are about to go parabolic.
Boston // Call Mike and ask him.
Beyond that advice, I'd say asnap seems to have cornered the market on prognostication. The reality is, baring a well placed source, it's nearly impossible to ascertain the exact date the FDA will provide clearance. I've personally done some statistical modeling and everything indicates the decission is soon. How soon, who knows but one thing is certain. The retail short groups are getting very nervous.
Asnap//correct. Original timeline was within 10-14days and we are on approx day 7 now.
Also was clear NASD letter was coming COB Friday. Was 99.999% it was coming but didn't require discussion as it really is a non event on the negativity spectrum.
A JV with K2 or other entity is a very real possibility.
My research "team" has gone as far to contact exec's at some of the players in Amedica's "sphere of influence" and I tell you our findings were extremely positive. I will leave it at that. With regard to the 3D printing, there are obvious value added benefits for Amedica to continue exoloration and ultimately with a solid partner such as K2. It will materialize.
Boston // No Worries Brother
Do I feel there is something nefarious going on @ Amedica. No. None of my research has revealed anything remotely close to that. Do I feel past and present Amedica exec's have made very poor decisions at the detriment to their shareholders, 100% I do. The hope is their science will forgive their unfriendly shareholder decisissions.
Listen, everything takes time and shareholders have been very patient, but there comes a time when management needs to just STFU and execute. Are you hearing this Mike Houston? Are you hearing this Sonny Bal? Are you hearing this Ty Lombardi? Enough with PR's about how great your over allotment was for your private placement, face the reality that your decisions to dilute caused the current erosion in pos valuation and investor discontent. Take a good look at your moral character and ask yourself am I doing right by those who have invested their hard earned dollars and supported me when no one else did.
Start executing so that your faithful shareholders and supporters like Boston will continue to believe and support you. It's really that simple. Boston feel free to forward this to your contact at Amedica...but I am confident some are lurking here.
Medtronic mislead FDA???
https://www.statnews.com/2016/08/15/medtronic-medical-device-surgery-fda/
I would agree that often condescending statements are lost in translation and don't necessarily mean they are true.
As to why exactly sales are down. F if I know. Maybe everyone at the company is short and by failing they secretly make millions. Maybe there were secret deals with the offering to tank the stock so the PE clients are kept fat dumb and happy, which will ultimately keep them participating in future offerings. Or maybe the CEO and sales team are dundeeheads like Atlanta says and couldn't sell half price beer on Super Bowl Sunday. F if I know. Ask your buddy the great Mike H what their dysfunction is.
But seriously. Don't fall in love with the company, fall in love with making money. Frankly you can hate the company, but still have tremendous opportunity to make a 400-500% or greater return. Hope that clears things up a bit. Hahaha
JoeyV // All valid points of contention
But now ask yourself this. The two largest investment banks on street paid how much in combined fines last year to avoid criminal prosecution, criminal negligence and essentially financially plead out of any wrong doing? Now ask yourself how much the two largest bio's paid lobbyist groups, physicians and reps last year to push their pills? Now ask yourself how much S&P, Moody's and Fitch cost American's, the Federal Gov in bailout funds due to their failure to adequately rate highly toxic debt instruments, aka subprime.
Now ask yourself this. What do all these darlings have in common? They are all highly regarded leaders within their respective sectors and instrumental in setting trillion dollar markets. So now that we have established the facts, let's discuss Amedica.
The Stock sucks, management sucks, sales suck, the board sucks, investor relations sucks, their burn rate sucks, and they gotta do what they need to in order to survive. But ironically what doesn't suck is their science and it is this science that will enable the world to forgive the fact that they suck so much. I always find the predictive psychology and how quickly sentiment changes when dudes make money. When this Roman Candle goes off, the back pressure will be phenomenal.
BDog you flushed me out. Have nothing to say on AMDA other then sometime in the near future the red tide will flow out to sea and be replaced with $$$$...watch how fast the sentiment changes when this pig flys on formal FDA approval combined with a new OEM/JV...So, how to conduct proper research?
How do you conduct proper research, start by asking the right questions, then ask again. When the investor relations dude refuses to respond or responds with ambiguous answers, then you request a visit and have face to face meetings. Make them look you in the eyes when asking the tough questions. Talk to the low men and women in companies, not the PHD/JD/MD/MBA types. Start with the pretty girls who like hit up Macy's and Nordstrom and talk about how her creepy old boss keeps hitting on them. Tell the secretary she looks beautiful and send her flowers. Buy the warehouse guys a couple cases of a quality America Pilsner and endless amounts of pizza. Build your rapport at every junction, then build even more rapport because it's the little guys who can tell you where the skeletons are kept or conversely when that pot of gold will be coming. Stop by the warehouses, watch how busy they are. Is UPS and FEDEX rolling in deep daily or never there. Is the company making a product, then how much raw materials are they burning through. Is the CEO flying Southwest to meetings, grabbing chow at Applebee's and racking out at the Holiday Inn Express or is the CEO flying First Class, town car service to the Plaza Hotel and dining at Morton's. The suttle often overlooked details will assist the "researcher" to make rather accurate deductions.
Then Scourer the financials. Read every SEC filing old and new. Open source tools will be become like family. LinkedIn should be your almanac and Google search should be your best friend. Search everything, cross reference everything and then connect the dots. Pull corporate recs from state SOS. Call the FDA. Spend time reading FDA documents. Access the public records of the courts. Did the CFO have a dui? Everything helps to establish the culture of your research. Call the financial houses involved in the private placements. Go to the investments houses. Hang out at the bars the brokers spend their 2hr lunches at. Call and meet with the prior employees. And remember numbers don't lie, only people do. The information you seek is readily available, you just have to learn where to find it, how to get it, and then figure out what's important and what is not. Deconstruct everything and when you have checked and triple checked and are absolutely sure of your numbers, your research, your hypothesis, stick to your gut instincts and don't let anyone persuade you from what you know. And there you have the G2G research primer. Oh make sure you listen to Metalica One as loud as your ear drums can humanly handle when finalizing your research.
Peace out bro.
Final Post
I've only shared my "due diligence" do to my pure distain for short groups who think they can manipulate without impunity. Well, I assure you with crystal clear visibility PE isn't their friend and the retail shorts about to get smoked by the mother of all calls. Our shares are locked GTC @ $10 and I won't be back until it begins.
Until then enjoy the nuggets I've left you as they'll provide a treasure trove of knowledge...if you learn to do proper research.
Boston / MCRA was your "Third Party"
Do I have to spoon feed you guys? MCRA and Mark D. He is one of the very best. Truly is. And for the record it's not an UDI label delay, as the time line is near term (very soon). So there I've given you TWO huge bright red clues that have been there all along. Conduct your research, ask the right questions, and you come away with the right answers. Do I need to put out the 510(K) number too?
This is boring. Back to my Wailua Wheat and Metalica
http://www.mcra.com
http://m.startribune.com/fda-wants-to-know-more-about-st-paul-firm-s-plan-for-zika-virus-test/371746951/
How far does the rabbit hole go?
One would only have to jump in a dumpster to find out...or keep a material girl knee deep in Nordstroms shopping sprees! WAHOOOO Hahahaha
Boston you don't have a private pilots license do you?
Now damn it lets get this girl Amedica all dressed up for big dance
Those toxic leeches are hear all around - some closer then others
I believe the term I've heard was "shenanigans". LOL
I even bet the IP addresses of certain posters would lead strait back to the SLC. Just based on certain key words, at a minimum they are lurking. At some point the curtain will drop and everything will be clear. Those shorting don't want to be exposed. Imagine if someone had leverage over them to force them to cover?
Well believe half of what you see and non of what you don't. Shit maybe my posts are AI and I don't actually exist. Hahahaha
Anti Spinner / Damn son, been reading your posts
Refreshing to hear some logic and reason. Where you dumpster diving your Intel from sir??? Haha
Boston / Yes something odd is afoot
I'm out of wailua wheat and I've gotta walk over to the ABC store. The horrors.
Again Boston, this is only for you and no one else. Ask Mike why Amedica has been working SO SO SO SO hard to improve their balance sheet and eliminate their debt load???
Hint: FDA clearance for a new gold standard, NEW massive partnerships, OEM's and distribution agreements, sales sales and more sales and a CLEAN balance sheet with no debt or warrant overhang. The PE guys gonna make 500% in a Roman Candle increase while the retail shorts will be like a deer stairing down a Mack truck wondering WTF just happened. Hahahaha
Boston / The labeling is a non issue. MCRA, Mark (was I not supposed to mention Mark-LOL), Sonny and the team is on it. Much further along then most think. As for the warrants. Is what it is. Mike Houston, Ty Lonbardi and the rest of the Kool-Aid gang love to say "warrants are fixed price and do not contain any variable pricing features or any price-based anti-dilutive features." While everything they say is 100% factual correct, what they fail to mention is the warrants (while eliminating toxic debt with Magna and Riverside, leaving only the Herc loan and covenants) came at the cost of dilution to shareholders. But that's ok because company insiders aren't shareholders because they own next to no common shares - Hahahah.
The warrants were exercised. Made 25-30% on the short position and balance will be exercised on the run up. Now Boston, I'm gonna share something with you and only you. Ever hear of KTWO? On your next call to the newly minted Vice President of Commercialization, ask him about expanded European AND North American distribution agreements with KTWO. Also ask him if anyone's been kicking the tires and looking under America's hood? When Amedica's crown jewel hits the market the race will be on. FYI KTWO just raised $50mil. Do you ever wonder if execs read these silly forums and then send subsequent company wide emails "loosely" addressing the dangers of "fiction" posted on said forums??? ????
The tail of two Eric's. Old and the new. Haha
Disclosure: long a truck load of Amedica common.
I've read enough meaningless talk on insider transactions
Insiders have made a decision to not purchase, period. Insiders have chosen not to take stock in lieu of bonuses and salary compensation, period. Yes there are specific SEC laws governing insider transactions - Sarbanes-Oxley, Dodd-Frank, U.S. Code § 78 etc. Baring company employees, execs trading on negative material news such as selling prior to FDA decission (ImClone), not making open market purchases or accepting stock in lieu of compensation is a decission 100% based on the BOD and company execs. Additionally execs can also legally short their stock through hedging.
If there are company employees or execs lurking, let's see some Form 4's and prove everyone wrong.
http://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=11335054
http://www.law360.com/articles/674725/best-practices-for-drafting-insider-trading-policies
Any concern regarding Weigao? Ahh yeah, hence my previous posts regarding temper expectations and a contract really means nothing until it's actually booked in as revenue.
Often times working with Chinese companies can present challenges beyond the normal contractual issues in the US. Do I anticipate issues from Weigao. No, but these are obvious concerns that must be tactful anticipated and prepared for.