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OK, I'll predict, too.
I previously did this analysis to come up with an estimate in the low 500s.
To clarify it a little more, my prediction is for revenues between 510 K and 540 K for the quarter (Q2).
Right now Q3, historically its worst quarter, is trending to be slightly better than Q2, but it's too early to guess a number.
I wish I could buy more at these prices, but I can't right now.
OnlyLeggings just completed its highest ranking 7-day period for pageview % since December 2012. It's at a 370 average for the past week (in millionths of a % of internet traffic), which is about 3 times its average pageview score for the year, which is in the low 100's.
It's a rather sudden turnaround from the 53 average pageview score it had in the month before this past week (late June to late July). In past years they've also had their slowest traffic of the year in early to mid July before picking up steadily from late July to the holiday season, but this 7-day surge has them close to holiday season levels already. Hoping it continues.
Liking the last few days of traffic, but not before that.
Up until June 28th, OnlyLeggings and some other Bravada sites were getting unusually high traffic for June. Then it all went quiet, dropping to very low traffic for 2 weeks, before startin g to recover mid-July. The last 3 days, though, have seen OnlyLeggings pageviews jump up big each day.
VivaVuva has picked it up a bit, too.
Most of the new sites had initial curiosity volume, but failed to sustain it.
Dresses Habitat did sustain traffic, so I might believe that it could do $10k for the quarter, but the rest of the new sites combined would probably be under $10k for the quarter.
So, that's why I'm putting my guess on the conservative side at $530k, because I think OL and WOL will be around $510 k to $520 k combined.
This is all AFTER returns and discounts. The top line revenue number would likely be more like $570 k, with $40 k in returns and discounts.
Again, these are all rough guesses. I've been off by huge factors before.
Revenue & traffic analysis for top 2 websites.
With the quarter now 95% over, we can project that the 3 month traffic stats for their websites won't be much different from current levels, when the quarter ends Monday night.
OnlyLeggings World of Leggings
Reach Pageviews Reach Pageviews Revenue (after returns)
Q4 '13 133 124 90 51 614 K
Q1 '14 102 108 64 41 407 K
Q2 '14 115 141 80 53 ???
These product PRs are mostly about improving the search engine rankings.
PRs about the company and stock don't improve the search engine rankings.
With a company as small as this, the quality of the CEO can make all the difference.
Sounds like we have ourselves a much better CEO now, with Justin.
I believe Nick gave it his honest best effort, and has things that he's good at, but just not the full skill set needed for CEO.
This company has had tons of potential that has gone unfulfilled. The new CEO has me believing that they'll fulfill more of that potential. The question is, how much, and how soon? That remains to be seen.
Q2 revenues are not likely to be up just because of new websites.
The reason they're likely to be up is that traffic on the 2 big established websites (OL and WOL) has been significantly up from Q1, and even moreso from the previous year's Q2.
Based on the numbers I'm seeing, I think revenues will be up 10% to 20% from Q1 for those 2 websites. Any increase from the other websites will be gravy.
Just saw the Alexa numbers, I think for Tuesday (they're usually out about 40 hours after end of day), and OnlyLeggings had quite the day!
Its "reach" for the day was almost double its recent average. This is the number of different people looking at the site. This is good but not unusual. It reaches this level once or twice a month, and much more during the November/December rush.
The amazing number was "Pageviews", which was about 7 times its recent average, and the highest single-day total I've ever seen. It might have matched this level in December 2012 when it hit obscenely high pageview levels, but back then the smallest breakdown I got was weekly, and today's (single-day) level was double the best ever weekly average from back then.
This is encouraging because I've noticed that having strong reach without strong pageviews means people are looking but not buying. Strong pageviews don't gaurantee sales, but they're a necessary condition for it (or symptom of it).
Other sites had average days, except Dresses Habitat which was significantly up from its norm.
It was expected that it would take a couple of years to develop the lactose product.
Last I checked, we're not quite a year into that, so, it could still be under development.
While the newer websites have been lagging, OnlyLeggings has maintained its elevated level of traffic through most of Q2 now, a quarter which traditionally is much slower than Q1. It's on pace to come in with better numbers than Q1.
World of Leggings is also enough ahead of Q1 numbers that they'll almost certainly finish the quarter with higher website traffic overall.
The other sites have fallen back during the quarter. So, the sites that are supposed to be picking up the slack in the summer are not doing that, but on the other hand, the big revenue sites appear to be doing fine, as long as the traffic translates to revenue.
Indeed, the correlation is low.
I'm beginning to think page views are more important than reach. Ranking is heavily weighted towards reach.
Certainly the ratio of revenue to traffic has gone steadily down over recent quarters.
If we start to see a higher conversion ratio, that'll be a really good sign, but it hasn't happened yer.
I do not post Alexa ratings to try to justify the CEO. I post them to try to get a read on what's going on.
The same strategy worked for Wayfair. They had hundreds of small specialized sites all in the area of home goods.
Indeed, it has been a downtrend. Here's some real data for those that want it.
While the ratio of revenues to website traffic has been declining in recent quarters (meaning they're not doing as well converting traffic to orders & revenue), there at least has been some correlation between the two. I have scripts to make downloading Alexa traffic data simple, and I do it once a day. Traffic has slipped in Y-over-Y comparisons in recent quarters, just not as fast as revenue, however, for Q2, traffic is up significantly.
Numbers for OnlyLeggings, as that's the big one (with rank, lower is better, with reach & pageviews, higher is better)
Q4, 2012: Rank: 96.7K Reach: 104, Pageviews: 211
Q4, 2013: Rank: 90.7K Reach: 133, Pageviews: 124
So overall, more people looking, but < half as much looking per person, and revenues way down.
Q1, 2013: Rank 98.5K Reach: 112, Pageviews: 147
Q1, 2014: Rank 113.6 K Reach: 102, Pageviews: 108
Down significantly on all 3 categories, both compared to previous year, and previous qtr.
Now, Q2 is seeing quite a change! Here are the 1 month ranks through May 17th, meaning April 18-May 17, both years:
2013: Rank: 154 k Reach: 64 Pageviews: 93
2014: Rank: 86.8k Reach: 140 Pageviews: 149
Holey Moley! Last year it was tanking at this point. This year it's SURGING past even Q4 levels!
I'm not sure what's driving it, but I like what I'm seeing.
World of Leggings is seeing a similar surge, though not quite as extreme as OnlyLeggings.
Interestingly, Dresses Habitat has been consistently strong lately, and has gone past World of Leggings in 1 month rank now. The only downer is that Fashion Jewelry Habitat has faded in recent weeks.
I PREDICT REVENUES FOR THE YEAR 2014 TO BE LESS THAN $2 MILLION.IMO
I think there are overreactions at the extremes with this stock. Right now we're seeing an overreaction on the negative side, which to me is a time to buy. 14 months ago we saw an overreaction to the positive side, which was a time to sell (I sold some then, but wished I'd sold more!).
Now I'm not in a position to buy any more, but if I were, I'd be confidently buying at these levels.
It's because of the evidence. The evidence clearly says that Q2 traffic has been amazingly positive... a big surprise on the upside. It also said Q1 was horrible. I expected between 490k and 500k after returns, and we got under 410k after returns. So even I was surprised at how low it was, but not by much.
But the same traffic data say that Q2 should be in the 600k-700k range after returns, and if a historically weak quarter can do that, there's definitely hope for the future.
I wish that were true, but based on traffic, we should be lower than Q4, and Q4 was less than half what you're predicting.
Traffic for Q1 was down about 20% from Q4 on both OL and WOL. That projects to about 500k revenue after returns (Q4 was $614k after returns) for Q1.
However, Q2 traffic is back up to Q4 levels, and rising, and that's just for WOL and OL. The new sites are completely additional, so Q2 might actually surpass Q4, but we'll need to wait 3 months to find out. An early guess would be about $700k for Q2, after returns. Q2 has been a very weak quarter in past years, so the rise would be significant.
I believe the SP will go up in July, in advance of Q2 results, given the unexpected surge in traffic they've had in the last 6 weeks, which will make Q2 a good one.
Q1 results will not be good. I think that's already factored into the SP.
Well, Q2 was already on track to be much improved before May 1st. Still, I always like to hear when someone promotes the site to their friends.
OK, here's a breakdown of monthly traffic ranks for OnlyLeggings.
2013,
March 106k
April 150k
2014
March 110k
April 102k
So last year April was much worse than March, but this year it's better, and that's not counting May 1st, which was the 3rd best day of the last 6 months.
This is why I believe that Q1 will be soft like Q4, but Q2 will be very good.
Another thing to note is that when OL has a good day, it seems to drag some of the other sites along with it.
Just checked the latest daily traffic for the sites. OnlyLeggings had a rockin' Thursday!
The website traffic was about 3 times their recent daily average, for a rank of 45k for the day (worldwide) . They've only beaten that rank twice in the last 6 months: on Feb 9th and Dec 23rd. This is UNUSUAL for May, a typically SLOW season for leggings!!
Also, this is hardly an isolated spike. Its traffic trend has been consistenly improving over the last month, at a time when it's normally dropping. I'll post more numbers about this soon.
I don't think Q1 numbers will be good, but they won't be bad either. I expect a rather neutral Q1.
Based on traffic trends, Q2 numbers should be a significant improvement over previous Q2, but we'll have to wait 3 months to see those numbers
I noticed a recent uptick in traffic for OnlyLeggings and WorldofLeggings and thought that last year, this was a time of weakening traffic. I looked back, and sure enough, it was.
Last year on this date, World of Legging's
3-month rank was 224k, and 1-month rank was 240k, with 1-month rank worsening quickly through April. Today, WOL's
3-month rank is 181,864, and 1-month rank is 151,426 and improving.
OnlyLeggings, ranks at this time last year and this year:
2013, 3-month: 102k
2013, 1-month: 117k
2014, 3-month: 110,264
2014, 1-month: 103,765
2013 was in a worsening trend and 2014 is in an improving trend in early April.
Also, VivaVuva now has 1-month rank of 280k, with Fashion Jewelry at 246k, both close to last year's WOL rank, and neither of them existed at this time last year.
Things are looking up, but they won't show in financial results until Q2 is reported, probably sometime in August.
Monday's Alexa traffic numbers are in, and it's another strong day.
6 websites had significantly better 1-day ranks than their 1-month averages, as follows:
World OL 82k (vs. 170k avg rank)
OnlyLeggings 82k (vs. 111k avg rank)
FashionJewelry 161k (vs. 192k avg rank)
DressesHabitat 173k (vs. 478k avg rank)
VivaVuva 239k (vs. 324k avg rank)
WomensTops 289k (vs. 778k avg rank)
After I posted that, there was one more good day, then a couple of bad ones, then a bunch of mediocre traffic days, with one spike last Friday. For the most recently reported day (Sunday), traffic picked up again, with 4 sites getting into the top 111,000 worldwide on Sunday.
Sunday's ranks:
Dresses Habitat 97k (previous month average rank 544k)
OnlyLeggings 98k (previous month average rank 103k)
FashionJewelry 107k (previous month average rank 203k)
VivaVuva 111k (previous month average rank 334k)
Web site traffic is perking up after a sleepy period, with OnlyLeggings and Fashion Jewelry leading the way.
I track rank, reach and pageviews daily on Alexa, although lately Alexa hasn't been updating consistently.
OnlyLeggings just had 2 big days in a row. By the units I use (e.g. millionth of a % of worldwide traffic), OL had never had 2 CONSECUTIVE days of 200 or more for both reach and pageviews. It just did that on Wednesday and Thursday (double its recent volume). The closest it had come before was Dec 23 & 24, 2013. It has had much bigger single days, but they were spikes with slow days around them. I'm hoping this is a sign it will sustain.
Other sites also woke up on Thursday.
TopsHabitat had its best day since Jan 29th, essentially tying its previous 2 best days.
BasicsHabitat had its best day since Feb 17th, but is still low in volume.
DressesHabitat had its best reach day ever with a "90", and its 4th best rank day, breaking into the top 200k of sites worldwide for only the 4th time.
VivaVuva was not strong on Thursday, but the 3 days before that were its best 3-day run since mid-January.
But the real nice surprise of late has been Fashion Jewelry. Here's its recent one-day totals for days when I was able to get Alexa data (NOTE that dates listed are download dates, GMT, which is 3 days later than the actual date the traffic reports on).
Note also that for the first number LOWER is better, and it represents worldwide rank to the nearest thousand (multiply it by 1000). For Reach and Pageview, higher is better.
Date Rank Reach Pageview
Feb14 785 40 4
Feb16 x x x
Feb18 x x x
Feb20 735 50 4
Feb21 524 40 12
Feb23 x x x
Feb24 560 40 8
Feb25 x x x
Date Rank Reach Pageview
Mar02 x x x
Mar03 581 40 8
Mar06 x x x
Mar07 141 90 150
Mar09 323 40 60
Mar10 127 90 260
Mar11 141 90 150
Mar14 150 90 110
Mar16 166 90 80
Mar20 761 40 4
Mar21 179 90 54
Mar22 224 90 27
Mar23 81 180 130
Date Rank Reach Pageview
Date Rank Reach Pageview
Mar02 94 170 80
Mar03 77 160 250
Mar06 45 400 90
Mar07 124 130 60
Mar09 86 170 110
Mar10 381 40 32
Mar11 124 130 60
Mar14 354 40 40
Mar16 73 160 310
Mar20 424 40 20
Mar21 106 130 120
Mar22 66 200 200
Mar23 58 210 330
Date Rank Reach Pageview
Not sure. I guess the challenge is spotting them before they blow. Seems like a lot of folks here with good eyes lately.
Right now I'm watching MDIN closely, which has had some interesting action lately, and also having fun playing some of the ones mentioned here recently.
Let's just hope that whatever is "infecting" these pennies will infect BRAV soon, too.
Yes, a nice, strong linear uptrend is starting to show, since the end of Thursday. Even if it doesn't go kaboom this week, and just keeps that uptrend of .0005 per day, we'll be breaking .0055 by the end of the week. I'll take that, as long as it continues!
Love the news this morning. This whole combination of PRs was handled perfectly, with the news on increase in float out on Friday evening, and the news on the MMJ partnerships out Monday just before open. Well done!
Still, I have to tease MDIN for this:
"another marijuana product manufacturer who has received many awards for their excellency in producing medical marijuana products"
I was thinking exactly the same thing! This lends mega-credibility to MDIN!!
How are we not above .004 yet?
Hmm, I like the part of what you posted where it says Dixie provides "innovative and delicious products". Hopefully they can help MDIN find a way to make the spray taste good, since that has been a problem with some sprays.
It is the only one of the new sites which showed steady, significant traffic in the past week, and it seems to be growing.
My wife loves FashionJewelryHabitat
we will be ordering every month
You state you believe the ones posting here but not Nick. ENOUGH SAID.....
Just a note that we already knew the A/S, and that hasn't changed in over a year. It's the O/S that just went up, and the float, and O/S is what to use in estimating share price, anyway.
nick chieco did say (very,very soon he will announce who the marijuana partner is), it would be fantastic if it was announced on monday or tuesday
what im getting from reading this is, Rays shares are now converted and in the treasury. Yes?
I think the truth is somewhere between the interesting contrast of YU's "yawn" and Nabbbss's super-excitement.
But, that gives me a pretty wide range to be right, so I'm not really saying much now, am I?