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Nice announcement on the Malaysian Fab. Raj is a guy who has done big things before and seems like a good guy for the job.
NG - Freeport final train restart approved yesterday:
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9760&intAcc_ID=77
LMB - Yeah, this feels more like a change in business approach that could be effective over years, rather than a quarter to quarter trading thing. Who knows, it could still all end up in the dumper, but the focused plan at least seems logical to me
LMB took longer than expected, but business plan of moving to more profitable, sticky, recurring ODR segment and away from higher revenue but lower profitability, one-time business seems to be progressing. Haven't listened to cc yet, but market reacting positively
17-Week Tbill Auctioned Off at 5.216%
OT: First US Nuclear Plant in 30 Years
On the energy front, Georgia Southern's Vogtle 3 has started its nuclear reaction. First nuke in the US in 30 years:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vogtle-unit-3-reaches-initial-criticality-301763807.html
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/23/bureaucratic_red_tape_is_blocking_a_us_nuclear_renaissance_877124.html
26-Week Tbill auctioned off at 5.183%
Chance
NG - But it's also true that the ng price declined from almost $9 to around $5.50 in less than 30 days after the shutdown, and that's when it was thought to be a short-term outage. So I wouldn't discount psychology either.
NG - Yeah it's interesting that even tho it's not a huge percent of the market thus it doesn't make any factual sense, Freeport seems to have a psychological impact. When Freeport shut down, that was pretty darn close to the high in the market for NG price. When it re-opened, that was darn near the low. Could be total coincidence, but could be big psychological impact on traders.
Thanks. Yeah, tons of spacs returning money and shutting down these days. Sounds like there were some SEC and tax rule changes that prompted some of this. Even the ones that do find mergers are suffering huge redemptions, which means the merged-in company is getting wayyy less money than the spac raised. This leads me to believe that the merged-in company still willing to go thru with such a transaction is pretty desperate. If you thought you were gonna get $300m by merging with the spac but becuz of massive redemptions only end up getting, say, $45m -- that suggests to me you're a money-losing company just trying to stay alive a little longer and simply can't find money anywhere else.
Some market operator buys up most of the remaining float before the transaction is completed and can run the thing once it comes public. That seems like the game to me.
I have not noticed, but that's probably worth looking at. Any symbols you're looking at? I'm mainly studying the spacs that have had huge redemptions on merger news and the stocks are extremely low float
Boy, some of these SPACs are just turning into govt sponsored pump and dumps. HPX hasn't even de-spac'd yet and it's already a low-float pump today because of the remptions. The stock was a one-day 4bagger, while the warrants moved a little, but not much. So I'm guessing just about everyone has some sort of a lockup period again -- everyone but the market operators who are running these things.
On Ameritrade Tbills, I'm not sure because even tho I had a small AMTD account, it has already transitioned over to Schwab. But once you get to Schwab, then yes you can, absolutely.
17-week Tbill went off at 5.049% today. First time in the 5's on the 17-week.
Also yielddude, individual tbills are totally liquid thru your broker. Can sell them anytime you want, don't have to hold to maturity
Treasury etfs of different lengths. Not that familiar with them, but these guys have a well laid out website and expense ratios are very reasonable:
https://bondbloxxetf.com/products/
SPAC redemptions answer, in case anyone else was wondering. Had already searched for it over the weekend, but tweaked a few words and came across some articles with the answer. Redemption data is usually in an 8-k filed a few days before the merged company (with new ticker symbol) starts trading.
FWIW, redemptions have been running very high on both extensions and de-spac mergers. Generally, these days about 40-50% of spac investors just want their cash back:
https://archive.ph/HqBWT
SPAC Redemptions. Does anyone know the SEC filing in which it shows how many holders of a spac redeemed before it starts trading as the new company? I know there are websites that claim to know this, but I'm looking for the actual source document filed with Edgar. If it's not in a filing, how do these other websites know?
Vanguard Turns Against ESG -- thank goodness. Probably realized that sooner or later they would be sued out of existence if they didn't:
https://archive.ph/T07EY
Thank you, Sir!
And does one just request it thru your broker, or do you have to notify the company directly, or how do you initiate the process? I've never done it, so I'm totally ignorant on this. Appreciate the help
SPAC Redemption. Does anyone have experience in redeeming their shares in a SPAC? This can usually be done prior to the merger occurring. Curious how long it takes, paperwork hassle, etc??
SPAC Redemption. Does anyone have experience in redeeming their shares in a SPAC? How long it takes, paperwork hassle, etc??
LUNR - a few more clues.
Once in a while, Reddit can have some in-depth posters on some more arcane stocks and deals. Here's a couple of comments from Reddit that make total sense to me:
And then this post may provide some real insight into what to look for in the future. Be sure to read this morning's press release in the post, as well as the comment below it, which provides a link to the Forward Purchase Agreement which was filed with the SEC a few days before the merger was completed:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Spacstocks/comments/119ybiu/polar_terminates_forward_purchase_agreement_with/
OT: Steve Jobs with a great bit of advice about life (1 minute):
Steve Jobs on calling up the founder of Hewlett Packard asking for spare parts to build a frequency counter (1994)
— Ticker History 🗞 (@TickerHistory) February 21, 2023
That summer Hewlett offered Jobs a summer gig working on the assembly line pic.twitter.com/gB0NX1mci9
Ha, Hanibal, I know what you mean. They've so destroyed the otc markets that the trading has become much less enjoyable
Oh cool, didn't even know the Financial Times had a free offer. Please let us all know what you think of it after a few weeks. You're now my go-to source on FT. Ha!
Also, forgot to mention on Freeport's debt, I found that downgrade of their bonds just by searching "freeport lng bonds" or "freeport lng debt" or some such. I didn't see it reported anywhere. It was really just my own curiosity as to how are these guys surviving . . . that's what led me to even search for that. You could probably find their bonds listed on a Bloomberg terminal or something, but I couldn't find it at my brokers. Wanted to see what a price chart looked like. Are the bonds crashing? improving? Couldn't find it.
And regarding the archive of the FT article, whenever I run into a paywall, I always paste the link into that archive.ph site and frequently someone has already archived it.
Sure thing. No, I have nothing fancy, just a search for "Freeport LNG" or something similar on Google News. (Though the Financial Times article doesn't seem to be coming up anymore, not sure why. It's possible I got that on a different search engine.)
As you've probably seen, Freeport did get full approval for commercial operations of Train 1, so seems to be progressing:
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9759&intAcc_ID=77
Ernie, question for you. Have you seen many instances where after a SPAC merger the warrants were NOT immediately exercisable?
I have not seen many instances, but I've also never really looked that closely. PHUN and ORGO were the only two I can recall where the warrants couldn't be immediately exercised.
The reason I bring it up, is because I'm wondering if the delayed exercise might actually be a sign that the investment banks, market makers, etc are going to run the stock. I can't think of any good reason why warrants shouldn't be immediately exercisable, can you?
The nefarious reason, however, would be you have a company with a tight float, want to be able to do some wash trades back and forth to run the price, and want to make it difficult for anyone to stop the price rise quickly. If the warrants were immediately exercisable, you could buy the warrant, exercise, and then sell the stock. (Or buy the warrant and immediately short the stock). But when the warrants can't be immediately exercised, you essentially have to naked short a low-float stock that is running like crazy, which is incredibly risky.
What do you think? Is delayed exercise of the warrants maybe something to look for in future SPAC mergers as an indicator to buy the stock?
Yeah, none of it really seems to make common sense. Company claims to have $45m cash (and almost no debt) and yet is raising another $40m?? Something just doesn't sound right.
Just remembered the name of the other one: Phunware (PHUN - current price .97, ha). This was the one that went to $550 but it actually held up a little better, because they allegedly had this huge world-changing software. Pull up a chart back to Jan 2019.
Even better, just looked up the warrants and they still trade PHUNW. You might pull their chart back to that time period. Looks like the warrants peaked around $1. But since then the warrants have had a few crazy runs that were even better. Even now they trade at .38 even though it looks like they expire end of this year and the stock is priced at .97. All the more evidence that warrants trade oddly and thus the reason for our little board here.
Anyway, I just offer these stocks and warrants for educational experiences from the past. Have no idea how LUNR and LUNRW will do, but best of luck to all.
Yeah, the whole ORGO board here on IHUB is only 92 messages but it's some interesting reading. I just flipped thru it quickly and sounds like it was 91% controlled by insiders so the float was tiny, thus could be easily manipulated. The company had also gone bk twice before. So sure seems like something scammy was going on.
They also mention there was another SPAC going crazy at that time, but don't name it. But this was one line mentioned which jibes with my memory:
"One day it is $550 and the next week it is down to $14.00"
Yeah, I remember a few years ago there were two SPACs where the price just went absolutely nuts when mergers were either announced or occurred (can't remember which). And it also happened during a govt shutdown when the SEC was closed, or else SEC may have stopped trading. The warrants on those couldn't be exercised for a couple of months
I believe one was Organogenesis (ORGO). It went to about $300 in just a few days, and then collapsed almost as quickly back to like $7. Pull up a chart going back to Jan 2019 and you can see it. The warrants at the time seemed incredibly underpriced, but ultimately ended up not being so.
There was another company at the same time that went to $500 but can't remember the name right now (I want to say it was a software company out of Austin). In both cases it seemed like a crazy price manipulation but I don't claim to know how it worked. It just didn't seem like natural trading.
So yeah, MWM, keep in mind that during some crazy manipulation the price can also fall incredibly fast. The warrants might work out great, but they also may not -- in spite of it currently looking like a gimme.
The problem with these Chinese companies is that the financials may not be true. The company's questionable auditor has been associated with many dubious Chinese stocks:
https://pcaobus.org/news-events/news-releases/news-release-detail/pcaob-sanctions-former-bf-borgers-audit-director-for-violating-pcaob-rules-and-standards-in-four-audits-of-three-public-companies
Corrected link: (story begins about halfway down)
https://saadvisory.com/update/archive/Feb-20-2023.htm
nsomniyak, I have to laugh at that becuz I've done the same thing before. If the option premium makes sense, I'll do it. Then talk to a friend later and they'll say "what does the company do?"
"Have no idea" lol
BOIL - It's also concerning that commodities in general are not more robust. Lumber, oil not moving, gold, nothing seemingly suggests a strong economic recovery.
For NG in particular, this article had a few more insights on Freeport:
https://archive.is/rtYio
Risk Assessment. Great article on when and how we learn it, learn to think independently, to govern oneself, etc
Called "in praise of lawn darts" the basis for a civilization of free people resides in the skills that children learn from the benign neglect of unsupervised play in an un-nerfed world:
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/in-praise-of-lawn-darts