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Missed the dollar spike up there....thx Snoot.
Seeing a low volume move at the moment into the lows of the day, but that low volume looks a tad spicier than i would expect for a test and rejection (so we should watchto see if vol really accelerates at the intraday lows or pulls back hard).
So we may see a pop at indice lows of the day. Regardless, not sure this is over but wanted to call attention to the prospect of intraday bounce since I'm so bearish here.
Dollar climbing still pretty hard intraday but would expect to see it comeback after another .05 to .10 move up (say 75.60-65.
At any rate, still maintaining my bearish posture but I would think that SPX a couple points down and DIA20 pts down will present at least an intraday bounce (since that will be towards the lows of the day).
Regardless, I see no big pop here to upside...more, that we should take care of being overly short on temporary bounces (and then shorting again into resistance). Mike
Thx much Accumulations....despite my bearish posture here, I don't like overlooking the obvious so appreciate your admonition here. Mike
DIA trying to stabilize here just under intraday low. If it can hold and trend up then us shorts need to exit. Me.... for now...keeping my market short but prepared to reverse if it looks like I made a stupid call....
Snoot
Big fan of yours... only thing I will say here is that despite al the naysayers when you look at .dxy and UUP, it looks like there is a serious move up to come in the short to mid term. However if FXE/EURO can Climb over $142.25 to $143 then I have this wrong. Mike
Accumulations
Thx much...I'm sticking with my stinking thinking that the market stinks here -- but the market doesn't always listen to what I think (and the hedgies out there....do play support/resistance like a fine fiddle or violin and I sometimes miss how they play that tune....)
Agree we have inflation, but thinking its a temporary phenomena.
IMHO one of several reasons that Bernanke and crew proceeded with QE2 was to avoid deflation. I think its safe to argue that by doing QE2 that they pumped up prices that are now bleeding into various aspects of the economy.
However, there is no support for QE3 (perhaps QE 2.5 by reinvesting their current balance sheet so to speak..) so likely we will see soon added deflationary pressures. Not sure that will last for very long (but long enough to make a difference in the market).
If I have this correct then we should see a dip in Oil and other commodities somewhat soon. If I'm wrong then we should see Oil spike over $100 sooner rather than later (Brent higher than that of course..). My view is that even if we get that spike up that its a good sell point.
Regardless, inflation is hitting a lot of the world's emerging markets, but not as much in the US. That is causing the emerging markets to throttle down and that will impact the US...likely in my view with more deflationary pressures in the mid term.
Its a tough call on all this stuff, but I like it in many respects, since it keeps the market depressed relative to its actual value. That to me is a very, very good positive longer term since we continually climb the proverbial "wall of worry". Mike
Well. looks like I'm, wrong at least intraday at this point...seeing some big spikes on DIA at the moment. The key will be if that can transition to added vol spikes and price movement up in the last hour of trading.
Thx BT. Thats what I like about your approach. Let the chips fall where they may. Generally most of us have enough confidence that we are willing to admit that we stuck our neck out...and got it wrong. A great thing. Regardless, Its not entirely clear here to me here, but wanted to make sure I shared my thoughts on the matter (so greatly appreciate your added thoughts here on my input). The tough part is that we have to have at least a dead cat bounce at some point...so if we are going to have it, it seems to me that we should it now or tomorrow. So that is my overall reticence in painting a more negative picture. Mike
BT: SPX 1273-74 & 1275 plus today/tomorrow will show If I got my more negative comments wrong.
If the market can get over these levels, & hit 1280 and then test 1290-95 then all bets off.
My humble view here is that the market cannot make it to those higher levels. So being short is little risk, despite the idea that the upside should be lower risk from a trader perspective,
At any rate...its more about getting this right in terms of making money despite the pride I may have in making a good call. I like the consolidated view here that keeps most of us in check...but really gets to a good conclusion overall on market direction.
At any rate...I'm putting out my view that we are not ready to bounce very far (and willing to tuck my tail between my legs if I get this wrong). Regardless, I appreciate that fact that many others do the same on your board... How cool is that? I think its the coolest from a traders/investor's point of view. Mike
re: BT/XLF
I'm with you that we will see a bounce soon on XLF/Financials. I just think it won't last long so I advocate folks not playing it unless they are fairly nimble here.
The mode I see is the classic - "gee, it sold off way faster than I expected". So that is more my caution.
Regardless, I don't see shorts at the end of the day saying "we have to cover". If I got this right then we will see sharp down moves n the market after a modest dead cat bounce (which could occur here over next 1-3 days). Despite my idea to short into resistant...it is dangerous given how over sold we are here and how these automated programs work when they hit certain technical levles.
Also, I will be looking for signs that I got this wrong and will update my thinking on it as we see this play out.
Of course a bit of a wild card here is index rebalancing and options EX (which coud provide some support for the longs as we wind into the week). Mike
Oops one correction...the topping pattern was in 2011, not across 2010 and 2011 as I mentioned... my apologies...misplaced my glasses last night....so dates are a tad blurry at the moment...but I can see the patterns loud and clear so to speak.
BT re: XLF
Just noticed something and thought I'd provide a quick comment here from a chart pattern perspective.
Last spring we saw a bit of a mountain top/selloff on XLF, now we see a rounded sell off at the same levels.
Classically that is referred to as an "Adam & Eve" topping pattern. Not sure exactly why that phrase is used (but I have a few theories).
Normally though this means we are at a substantial topping area here and that we have to test lower levels first (in a sense this is like a head and shoulders pattern - but from my standpoint its been a little more reliable when I've see it in the past). Mike
Jerry
Agree generally. I think we head soon for 1253-55 and thinking actually lower...say 1240-45 is a possibility (with 1190 area an outside possibility), We are oversold...but the condition to me looks like it will persist - so if we don't go down here - we will trade sideways or even go down now. The market sentiment here (as I read various sentiment indicators (especially technical)) stinks and that looks to me like we have to get to lower levels before we draw in actual buying from the big boys (as opposed to minor short covering rallies with some bottom fishing from value investors. As much as this looks like it has to bounce area...I just don't think the market is willing to go along right here. Too much overhang especially on the political front. Usually I discount those things...but lack of
discipline related to GOP and how to manage the tea party members is a substantial problem to the broader global investors... Basically, who wants to be in this market when you know that House will wait until the very last minute (aug 2) to address whether we go down the default path or not? One the few times when I think political fundamentals do matter here. So from my standpoint, I'm looking for a test of lower levels prior to the more value investors jumping back in. Say a 10% correction versus just a 5% correction.
Otherwise I have had a lot of network problems lately (and when network has been up my kids are crowding me out a bit). So thats why I dropped off for past week or so. Still having issues this morning but has improved somewhat. Hope I'm back up here for more than just 20 minutes....
BT - Not squared away on posting charts yet. I can copy Fidelity ATF charts on my slower PC and post to word file...but previously had trouble in pasting that chart to investor's hub. Will resend my phone number in just a bit. Will in meantime retry just in case latest ATF upgrade makes it easier to tpost charts. Mike
Oil Stock. Miners etc.
XLE/ERX, OIH, DIG, DIG, GDX/NUGT, GDXJ look to be stabilizing this morning at previous lows. Bought some ERX just a bit ago. Mike
Mossy Oak -- Loved that reply
Amazing that State of Texas.. We are going to some place called Friendstown or something like that..
Basically the eastern part of texas. I'm a bit of a history buff so will be looking to fill in those details. But from Colorado springs it seems to be a fairly dusty road that is filled with a tumble weed of travel.... However thinking that once we get there that there may be some interesting Historical things to uncover. We'll see - despite the the boring travel to get there... I would like to see some US History on the way (perhaps that is too much to expect - but usually you can pull something out of even the most boring of trips)
Skidstreet---Thanks on the MOS chart (and overall comments on the Ag space)... I appreciate the help on the call I made earlier on these stocks at being at a potential buy pt.
I'm getting ready to take off for a week or so...
That is, we are getting ready to go to 'hot, god for shaken Texas....' to see some our relatives...in Friendstown I think its in eastern part of Tx....
But at same time we are preparing for high school oral exams ( the nice thing about he charter schools here in Colorado is that we don't have to listen to dumb-assess on the left or right & their BS changes to text books....they actually use/read original text rather than the politically correct Texas or California legislature intervention....but as a part of that discipline...my kids have to take oral exams like they do in advanced college course. Which I like...but it causes a bit of a headache as I try to coax them into to adequately preparing for those oral exams.
So I really like that change or uptick in the Ag stocks.... but I will be increasingly offline for next week or two (and likely not able to take advantage of the move up as it occurs...).
Otherwise, a very interesting market day today and thx for providing the chart on MOS. Its one I'm tracking....
Thanks Big. Agree. Of course there could be a nice scalp like Trend1 does frequently on TNA/TZA prior to any further sell off. I just get the sense from the extended sector review that I have been doing over past week or so that institutions and hedge funds have changed their sentiment in the short to perhaps mid term.
So I see this as a start of at least a somewhat deeper cut. That said, mid to longer term there seems to me to be more "risk" to the upside. I just don't like the divergences I'm seeing now that point to more downside in the short to mid term. However, in a holiday period like Memorial day, the selling (when it occurs) is usually upfront and then we get a pop up towards the end of the week -- we tend to rebound and melt up higher on lighter volume.
At any rate, this looks to be an interesting week to test a few of our hypotheses about the market.
Otherwise, its much appreciated to see folks on this board 'stick their neck out' and defend their analysis. Its hard in any market to get a 1 sigma probability of being correct...but the composite input here gets towards 75-80% if not 2 sigma on frequent occasions. So I appreciate the idea that folks put out their opinions here based on their own technical analysis & defend that analysis. And that everyone seems to take those ideas into account and not hammer someone for getting it wrong. Different takes on the market I think are always welcome and help everyone to think through their own analysis more carefully... even though our projections may not turn out to be true at the end of the day... Mike
The target I'm working too for a "comfortable" long position is SPX at 1295-1297 (with a modest possibility of breaking that and heading for 1275-80). We are way oversold here, but that obviously doesn't stop sellers when they are headed for the sidelines. If market does fall back further like I'm projecting then that area on SPX (and DOW at approx 12,200 is my other target). Interesting too that the 1000 period on hourly chart is at approx 1296. It will be interesting to see if we tag that. If we do and then trade back up towards 1315-1325, then this will liikley end the current sell off. Overall, bull market to me looks intact, but we are seeing rotation into very defensive sectors. So folks aren't running for the hills, but it looks to me that we are in the midst of the "markdown period" of this current trend for the most aggressive sectors in the market (e.g., commodities, tech etc). So I'm expecting some further fallout over next several weeks as this "defensive" sector rotation winds its way through and the more aggressive sectors get marked down.... That said, I still like the miners on pull backs (e.g., GDX, GDXJ, NUGT) and I think the Ag stocks are ready for a climb up (MOS ANDE, POT, AGU, CF, MON, ADM,etc). Also think chemicals like WLK worth a look. Also, refiners like HOC, TSO, WNR, VLO, etc worth a look when the dust settles (and perhaps XLE/ERX). Mike
BT
I don't trust this move. Moved some psotions to cash this am (had some longs on miners & TNA from yesterday). Stepped a bit into the VXX at its lows just a few minutes ago, was thinking that sometime soon we should see a test another 50 pts lower on the SPX (say 1290-1300 area). But prepared to go either way.
At any rate initial mkt reaction to Fed statement usually is reversed to at least some degree by end of day (or next) -- so that was my thinking on picking up some of the VXX.
MCP looked to tag at or near the 40 day on the low today (Weekly 20 day is 40 is approx $55.35). There is a 61.8% fib line from more recent trend up at approx $55.38. Looking to see if we get a low volume pull back today or tomorrow that then gets back into that $55-$56 area and successfully tests and rejects it.
BTs previous comment/chart on MCP--
"MCP forked chart here..looks to bounce if it closes with this candle
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=62625262&txt2find=mcp"
MCP worth keeping an eye on. Trying to hold/consolidate here after nasty selloff earnings. Should run again (and may do it from here from approx $65)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=10&id=p73501400685&a=217569825
China PMI/CPI data out tonight. See link below for nice calendar of world economic calendar.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/World-Economy/Calendar.aspx
--If CPI much in excess of expected (5.2% increase for CPI is estimate) then would expect some hit to markets/commodity trade overnight or early in morning.
Also we get inventory data tonight and tomorrow on Oil. Lately that data has shown surpluses so Oil has had some pull back just in front of and/or just after the data is released. However, the flooding in lower Mississippi may mitigate downside volatility of Refiners/Integrated Oil -- if the Refiners get some hit related to the flooding. If no hit to Refiners, but flooding is perceived to provide some stalling to shipping, etc that lasts for a few weeks - then that could be a negative to Oil/Commodities & perhaps the market.
So far though uptrend still looks intact and unless there is some 'game changer' then I think the market will continue to consolidate & then melt up some more. But getting increasingly cautious here over next few weeks.
Jerry
Thanks. Tend to agree that the move down here in commodities is not over. I'm looking for a short to perhaps mid term move up and then a fairly long to sideways to down consolidation that should take a few to several weeks to play out. At any rate, I think the longer term rotation is going to favor the miners given how they haven't participated. But the down move is not quite over as of yet so I was looking for a swing up here in the interim. Mike
Just one other thing..
Several of you know me as someone that at times can pick out nice opportunities. I don't usually hammer away on those opportunities. Here though I'm saying to plow into GDX or NUGT (Note: NUGT is a shorter term trade since it is a 2x leveraged trade and those trades can work against you in some time frames -- often the 1x trade on something like this can work out better in the long term. )
That said, if the market holds and rebounds here -- the GDX/NUGT trade should outperform next week or so. But I would still be careful of Options Ex. This is a very skittish market..which actually is good -- since that sentiment helps the market to climb a wall of worry. But in the meantime longs and shorts can get hamerred if not careful. Mike
Cripes... I didn't realize the update rate was so slow at times on this board. It was relatively quick the other day so I was lulled into a false sense of security.... My apologies for multiple posts on the same subject. Mike
GDX/Silver etc
---this is the 4th attempt to post this thought -- not sure what I'm doing wrong since I can see no posting for my messages.
I spent about 10-200 minutes posting a reply to an earlier email I sent to BT & this board. But it didn't show up. And of course the link I posted didn't make the cut as well.... Unfortunately I didn't do a cut and save from my post ----so it is lost. So will try again here but with less info unfortunately...just getting really tired at this point....
So a more simpler version of the post I had was that GDX (e.g., ETF for selected stocks like AEM BVN FCX IAG EGO SLW etc) did exactly what it normally does as it bottoms...it rockets up initially and then sells off to even. Which is always frustrating when you think the new uptrend pegged....
That just seems to invariably happen. Then it takes off in coming days. If the market has found temporary bottom, then GDX should do well here especially given its overall low PE and the idea that it has not appreciated much while commodity prices have climbed incredibly (and now adjusting of course). See earlier post for link.
I will try to save this input just in case this time since I'm a newbie to the board and can't figure out what I'm doing wrong that allows my input to be lost. Everybody has rules...and even though I'm frustrated at this point - willing to give this another try or two to see if post actually holds.... Mike McManus
GDX - A third try
My posts are not showing up so here is a third try...
GDX/Silver etc
I spent about 10-200 minutes posting a reply to an earlier email I sent to BT & this board. But it didn't show up. And of course the link I posted didn't make the cut as well.... Unfortunately I didn't do a cut and save from my post ----so it is lost. So will try again here but with less info unfortunately...just getting really tired at this point....
So a more simpler version of the post I had was that GDX (e.g., ETF for selected stocks like AEM BVN FCX IAG EGO SLW etc) did exactly what it normally does as it bottoms...it rockets up initially and then sells off to even. Which is always frustrating when you think the new uptrend pegged....
That just seems to invariably happen. Then it takes off in coming days. If the market has found temporary bottom, then GDX should do well here especially given its overall low PE and the idea that it has not appreciated much while commodity prices have climbed incredibly (and now adjusting of course). See earlier post for link.
I will try to save this input just in case this time since I'm a newbie to the board and can't figure out what I'm doing wrong that allows my input to be lost. Everybody has rules...and even though I'm frustrated at this point - willing to give this another try or two to see if post actually holds.... Mike McManus
GDX/Silver etc
I spent about 10-200 minutes posting a reply to an earlier email I sent to BT & this board. But it didn't show up. And of course the link I posted didn't make the cut as well.... Unfortunately I didn't do a cut and save from my post ----so it is lost. So will try again here but with less info unfortunately...just getting really tired at this point....
So a more simpler version of the post I had was that GDX (e.g., ETF for selected stocks like AEM BVN FCX IAG EGO SLW etc) did exactly what it normally does as it bottoms...it rockets up initially and then sells off to even. Which is always frustrating when you think the new uptrend pegged....
That just seems to invariably happen. Then it takes off in coming days. If the market has found temporary bottom, then GDX should do well here especially given its overall low PE and the idea that it has not appreciated much while commodity prices have climbed incredibly (and now adjusting of course). See earlier post for link.
I will try to save this input just in case this time since I'm a newbie to the board and can't figure out what I'm doing wrong that allows my input to be lost. Everybody has rules...and even though I'm frustrated at this point - willing to give this another try or two to see if post actually holds.... Mike McManus
I was a a tad early here on GDX/NUGT (2x trade on GDX/IAU) but it did the typical action I've seen in the past - which was to make a 2-4% relief rally today and then fall back on the initial try.
If market holds next week, and dollar trades sideways under $75 to a tad down, then I think GDX/NUGT, SLW, PAAS, IAG, etc are compelling entries. NGD, GPL other ones to look at. At any rate, the miners have sat there forever it seems while commodity prices this last quarter or so have accelerated.
So I think we will see some serious rotation in next couple of weeks into these miners, then say a lull, and the another pickup as we get into late summer/early fall. Its just overdue in my view after watching this group for several years.
Along similar lines, I liked the market action today...it was skittish trade, but on relatively low volume, so likely sets up for a nice move up but options ex due at end of week so I would tread lighter into the end of the week until the dust settles. Mike McManus
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1540
Re: Gold Miners (GDX)
Thanks BT. Just wanted to keep within the spirit of what you look for. Will try to post link or static chart below. At any rate, I believe many of the miners will be reporting soon and some should have some very nice results (less costs due to the rise in energy expenses...). Note it looks like I could only drag the link over....
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1540
GDX/NUGT -- I can't find a post after looking for last 15-20 minutes for GDX/NUGT (NUGT is 3x of GDX Gold miners). But this sector has been dead for a long while and I'm thinking its way, way oversold here so worth a watch on the intraday chart for a reversal.
Hey this is mike from another (yahoo) board that BT supports.
I've recently been following some rather excellent posts on the market here (which is the norm here - these are just more stellar in my view).
At any rate, love BT,BIG, Jerry, Trend1's stuff and I left out several other folks.
But wanted to comment here. Thats not a hammer... A Hammer needs a much smaller head. On the other hand I think most folks get your drift....as long as we hold over & reject 1335-1340 (if tested) then we are good to go for another leg up.
For my part...
I'm transitioning over to Apple MACs and Linux based systems - my kids have killed 3 systems this year that were Microsoft based systems (Vista)...and the remaining Bill gates system I have running that can reproduce my Fidelity ATP charts is now a pathetic 32 bit system that I can barely keep going.
Will try to remedy that over time by getting a new MS system or building one from scratch with linux as the underlayment.
At any rate, I'm a big fan of BT and the many stellar talents he has collected here and would like to contribute over time. Mike Mac (McManus)