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ABK Dec 25 puts are seeing interest with 4590 contracts trading vs. open int of 9960, pushing implied vol up around 65 points to ~196%
Covered RYL @ $27 in Pre Market, don't like the way the futures are acting. (to be short)
You lost him! What happened to the GPS chip you planted on him?
Short RYL @ $27.50 Moody's cut to junk. eom.
LOL. I think it's extremely unfair to entice people with a reward for a task that is impossible to achieve.
That's the way I saw it but briefing has a large following and they say it was a beat. I shorted more at $59.95 stop loss at $61 willing to hold overnight and see if the excitement dies down tomorrow.
Looks like someone is trying to keep it down, every time it gets to $60 large numbers show up on the ask.
Will probably blow through it now that I posted. LOL.
Short a little JOYG @ $58.66 beat on earnings by .05 revs in line, guided in line. Growth going forward doesn't look that great, trading near high end of 1 year range...
7:03AM Joy Global beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS in-line, revs in-line (JOYG) 55.60 : Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.80 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.75; revenues rose 6.8% year/year to $736 mln vs the $717.2 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $3.10-3.35 vs. $3.30 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $2.8-3.0 bln vs. $2.88 bln consensus.
This story will really help WalMart improve its image. It's a long article but basically you can end up owing your employer more than you collect on an accident claim because they base your employers share on the total settlement and don't take into account your legal fees. Botom line these people spent years in court and ended up owing WalMart about $50k than they collected...
Employers grab accident victims' cash
Wal-Mart's health plan sued an ex-worker, brain-damaged in a crash, to collect money from a settlement she'd received. It's part of a trend in which companies aggressively try to recoup insurance costs.
A collision with a tractor-trailer seven years ago left 52-year-old Deborah Shank permanently brain-damaged and in a wheelchair. Her husband, Jim, and three sons found a small source of solace: a $700,000 accident settlement from the trucking company involved.
After legal fees and other expenses, the remaining $417,000 was put in a special trust. It was to be used for Deborah Shank's care.
Instead, all of it is now slated to go to Deborah's former employer, Wal-Mart Stores.
Two years ago, the retail giant's health plan sued the Shanks for the $470,000 it had spent on her medical care. A federal judge ruled last year in Wal-Mart's favor, backed by an appeals-court decision in August. Now, Deborah's family has to rely on Medicaid and her Social Security payments to keep up her round-the-clock care.
"I don't understand why they need to do this," says Jim Shank on a recent visit to the nursing home, between shifts as a maintenance worker and running a tanning salon. "This girl needs the money more than they do."
Deborah, who needs help with eating and other basic tasks, has spent more time alone since Jim had to let her private caregiver go. At some point, he says, she may have to be moved from a private to a semiprivate room in the nursing home where she lives.
The reason is a clause in Wal-Mart's health plan that Deborah Shank didn't notice when she started stocking shelves at a nearby store eight years ago. Like most company health plans, Wal-Mart's reserves the right to recoup the medical expenses it paid for someone's treatment if the person also collects damages in an injury suit.
Full Article...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/KnowYourRights/EmployersGrabAccidentVictimsCash.aspx?page=1
Your stalking skills have greatly improved since you first arrived!
I saw Hillary on a talk show say in addition to Bush's plan she wanted to establish a multi-billion dollar fund to give direct assistance to homeowners in order to help keep foreclosures from bringing down housing values. When the host asked her where she expected to get the funding she said something like, "Where we get all our funding, from the budget."
16:01 BSC Bear Stearns: Probe of insider trading at Bear Stearns - BusinessWeek Online (94.07 -1.22)
BusinessWeek Online reports The investigation by securities regulators and federal prosecutors into this summer's collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in risky securities backed by subprime mortgages is heating up. BusinessWeek has learned the SEC and the U.S. Attorney's office in Brooklyn are looking into an allegation that some Bear Stearns insiders associated with the funds may have been pulling their personal money out of the investment vehicles this spring when the market was in turmoil. The alleged redemptions occurred, sources say, during a time the funds' managers were urging other investors to stay put.
People aren't very bullish on NatGas, of course that could mean a big squeeze at some point...
15:48 According to CFTC NYMEX natgas speculative net short futures hit record high 92,881 contracts - Reuters
FRPT you got $6.00, still getting whacked in A.H. I can't find any news but it sure looks like something has leaked.
Out the rest @ $10.30 eom.
Out 1/2 PMI @ $10.24 eom.
After the beating PMI took I thought they would bounce more than that. Long a little @ $10.13 but don't ask me what I think if it breaks below $10 because I'll be long gone.
14:31 PMI PMI Group MTGE Subs Ratings Off CreditWatch, Affirmed; PMI Group Affirmed by S&P -- Bloomberg (10.10 -1.05)
CNBC says ACA will probably file BK. That should add downward pressure to ABK.
Pete Najarian(Fast Money) called WFMI a buy in A.H. and said it was up from here because they raised the dividend. Don't know if you watch it, but IMHO since Strazzini and Bolling left the quality is way down.
Anyone with experience could see he was just pulling it out of his a$$ and had no clue what he was talking about. I felt bad for the people who were blindly taking his advice.
LOL. I shop there too for some premium items. I think it's a great company; it's just overpriced. I get a kick out of some of the loons on Yahoo who think if you short a stock you are saying the company sucks.
I only held 100 shares overnight since the street loves the stock. RBC is out defending it this morning already. They think it's an attractive buy at this price since it is "only" trading at 30 x 2009 earnings and they believe the company has the ability to outpace the market's growth rate in 2010 and beyond;)
I hope it pops back to $47 again this morning.
Don't you mean the Gray's?
16:36 WFMI Whole Foods Earnings Color (42.25 -0.81) -Update-
Reuters Estimates is telling us that, including Pre-opening and Relocation costs & Stock-option expenses, an actual of $0.24 per share is comparable to Reuters estimates of $0.30. See earlier comment at 16:17.
WFMI really knows how to write a press release. Had to dig for the earnings number. I don't think the faithful who are buying after hours read all the way to the bottom to find this...
Did you notice they only guided for revs...
The Company does not expect to produce operating leverage in fiscal year 2008 due primarily to a decrease in store contribution as a percentage of sales driven by a higher percentage of sales from new and acquired stores, which have a lower contribution than our existing stores, investments in labor and benefits at the acquired Wild Oats stores, and continued, though more moderate, increases in health care costs as a percentage of sales. In addition, the Company expects G&A as a percentage of sales to be in line with the 3.3% reported in fiscal year 2007 due mainly to the temporary costs associated with integrating the Wild Oats acquisition, along with the cost of fully staffing the Company's three smallest regions which gained the greatest number of stores in the merger. The Company expects G&A as a percentage of sales to improve sequentially from the first half to the second half of the year.
Be careful the street still loves them. Might even pop more off the open tomorrow.
People still have jobs and they are still spending money on over priced groceries so things can't be that bad...
WFMI Whole Foods beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY08 revs (42.22 -0.84)
Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.34 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 35.0% year/year to $1.74 bln vs the $1.61 bln consensus. For FY08, on a 52-week to 52-week basis, the Co expects sales growth of 25-30%, which calculates to roughly $8.24-8.57 bln may not be comparable to $7.89 bln consensus, of which approximately 10% is expected to come from the Wild Oats stores, and comparable store sales growth of 7.5% to 9.5%. For the first seven weeks of Q1, comparable store sales growth was 9.5% on top of a 6.5% increase in the prior year, and identical store sales growth was 7.2% on top of a 5.9% increase in the prior year. Sales at the acquired Wild Oats locations open longer than one year, excluding closures, increased 6.6% on top of a 1.0% increase in the prior year. Acquired stores will enter the comparable store sales base in the fifty-third full week following the date of the merger. Co says capital expenditures for FY08 are expected to be in the range of $575 to $625 mln.
It's amazing how the fear builds on itself. FRE said on their CC that they mark the loans to market and they do not believe the low prices are justified because the loans are prime and they are performing but there is nothing they can do about it. Most people don't even look into it, they just say OMG Freddie had a huge write down and panic more and make the prices go even lower causing more margin calls and leaving less capital to be lent out.
14:01 FOMC Minutes: Rate reduction would provide 'additional insurance' against any unexpected severe weakening
I would interpret this as they were playing it safe, so unless there is substantial weakening there will be no rate cut in Dec.
Market is not going to like it.
Out JWN @ $33.88 for + .18 don't trust this market.
Shipping Insight: DryBulk spot rates continue to weaken
After reaccelerating last week to new highs last Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index has declined for the fifth consecutive session. The BDI dropped another 133 points in London to 10,647. All the components continue to roll over led by notable declined in Panamax rates that have declined nearly 14% from 10/30 highs. While down, Capesize rates continue to hover around highs of 16,256 indicating enduring demand for this class. Navios Marine (NM) operates the largest capesze fleet of 20 ships, followed by Diana Shipping (DSX) and DryShips (DRYS) with 6 respectively. Handysize Index remained roughly flat at 3,050 points...Click here for table of indices...For the tanker, Persian Gulf rates to Asia may continue to rise for the seventh consecutive day as vessel glut shrinks on strong regional demand. Asian refineries continue to boost imports. VLCCs rates to Asia (account for nearly half of total global demand for carrier) continue to strengthen. This is good news for Frontline (FRO), which operates the world's largest fleet of very large crude carriers. While drybulk fundamentals remain strong, stocks continue to follow the direction in spot rates that are likely to remain volatile for the near-term leaving stocks rangebound. Given near-trough expectations for the tankers, we continue to argue the risk/reward is much more attractive vs. drybulks at this point.
The Coming Consumer Crunch
Recession or not, American families will be forced to tighten their belts
BusinessWeek.com
updated 10:43 a.m. ET, Mon., Nov. 19, 2007
The long-awaited, long-feared consumer crunch may finally be here. That might not mean an economywide recession, but the pain for American households will be deep.
In recent years the U.S. mostly has seen narrowly focused downturns, where a few sectors are hit hard while the rest of the economy and financial markets remain relatively unscathed. In the dot-com bust of 2001, for example, tech companies and stocks took it on the chin, while consumer spending and borrowing sailed through without a pause. This time the positions will be reversed, as consumers tank while much of the corporate sector stays on track.
It's been a glorious run for the consumer. In the past 25 years, Americans have kept shopping through good times and bad. In every quarter except one since 1981, consumer spending rose over the previous year, adjusted for inflation. The exception was the first quarter of 1991, and even then the decrease was a mild 0.4% dip.
The main fuel for the spending was easy access to credit. Banks and other financial institutions were willing to lend households ever increasing amounts of money. Any particular individual might default, but in the aggregate, loans to consumers were viewed as low-risk and profitable.
The subprime crisis, however, marks the beginning of the end for the long consumer borrow-and-buy boom. The financial sector, wrestling with hundreds of billions in losses, can no longer treat consumers as a safe bet. Already, standards for real estate lending have been raised, including those for jumbo mortgages for high-end houses. Credit cards are still widely available, but it may only be a matter of time before issuers get tougher.
What comes next could be scary—the largest pullback in consumer spending in decades, perhaps as much as $200 billion to $300 billion, or 2%-3% of personal income. Reduced access to credit will combine with falling real estate values to hit poor and rich alike. "We're in uncharted territory," says David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, who's forecasting a mild drop in consumer spending in the first half of 2008. "It's pretty rare we go through such a pronounced tightening in credit standards."
Don't expect the spending to come to a screeching halt, however. Remember the stock market peak in early 2000? It wasn't until a year later that tech spending fell off the cliff and the sector didn't hit bottom until 2003. The same delayed impact holds true here. The latest retail sales numbers, which showed a soft 0.2% gain in October, suggest that spending may hold up through this holiday season.
Next year, though, will be much tougher. The consumer slump may be deep and long-lasting, and the political implications could be enormous. "There's growing evidence that the economy will become a dominant, if not the dominant issue of 2008," says independent pollster John Zogby. "It's even to the point where the numbers of people who say Iraq is the No. 1 issue are starting to decline."
Wide-open credit window
Truth is, economists have been complaining about excessive borrowing and spending since the early 1980s. Journalists began writing about consumers being "tapped out," "profligate," and "spendthrift." Magazines and newspapers regularly ran stories about debt-ridden Americans not being able to buy holiday presents for their kids.
But no matter how many times economists predicted the demise of the consumer, the spending continued. The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the personal savings rate — the share of income left after consumption — fell from 12% in 1981 to just over zero today. And debt service, which is the share of income going to principal and interest on debt, kept rising. Those numbers aren't dead-on accurate: The data has been revised endlessly, and the BEA includes outlays on higher education as consumption rather than saving, which would seem odd to families who have socked away thousands of dollars for college.
But the story line is clear. Consumers' outlays have outpaced the growth of their income for a long time. Lenders learned how to judge risk and expand the pool of potential borrowers—and the party was on. "The most important factor has been that it is easier to borrow," says Christopher D. Carroll, a Johns Hopkins University economist.
While many companies struggled in the 2001 recession and afterward, American consumers just kept borrowing. "In 2001-02, the credit window was open for anyone who had a pulse," says Merrill's Rosenberg.
Not this time, though. "The consumer is retrenching, bigtime," says Richard Hastings, economic adviser to the Federation of Credit & Financial Professionals. "It's starting to get to the point where people are achieving levels of debt that are getting uncomfortable."
The question, though, is just how much consumers will restrain their free-spending ways. Research by economist Carroll suggests that every $1 decline in house prices lops about 9 cents off of spending. The current value of residential housing is about $21 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. So if home prices fall by 10%, as many people expect, that would lead to roughly a $200 billion hit to spending over the next couple of years. A 15% tumble in home prices would produce a $300 billion pullback in spending, or about 3% of personal income.
That accords well with calculations by BEA economists. They figure that households took out $340 billion in cash from mortgage and home-equity financing in 2006. That source of funding could largely disappear over the next couple of years.
Three percent — that doesn't sound like a lot. Look a little closer, though, and it's a bigger hit than it seems. The reason is that much of what the government counts as consumer spending is not directly controlled by households. For example, the $1.7 trillion in medical costs is counted as consumer spending, but 85% of that is spent by the government and health insurers, not individuals. And $1.5 trillion in "housing services" is listed as part of consumer spending, but for homeowners it really just represents the value of living in a home rather than any spending they can change. It's mainly a bookkeeping convention, not a real outlay.
So that 2%-3% decline in income directly hits the wallet and the discretionary purchases that households actually control. One logical place for cutbacks is apparel. Autos will be hit. Another target could be luxury items, a surprisingly big part of discretionary spending. Pamela N. Danziger, president of Unity Marketing in Stevens, Pa., conducts a quarterly online survey of adults earning $75,000 a year and up. She found that people who make more than $150,000 have been unaffected, but the rest are cutting back on luxury goods such as fashion accessories. "They are taking a very cautious attitude," says Danziger.
A lift from exports
Will the consumer crunch spread to the rest of the economy? Conventional wisdom is that consumer spending makes up 70% of gross domestic product. While technically true, that figure is deceptive, because so much of what Americans buy these days is made overseas. Compared with the early 1980s, which was the last time consumers cut back, much more of what Americans buy is made abroad. Today, imports of consumer goods and autos run about $740 billion a year. That's fully one-third of consumer spending on goods outside of food and energy. As a result, most of the spending cutbacks won't cost Americans their factory jobs — those factory jobs have mostly fled offshore anyway. Workshop China, in contrast, will get hurt.
What's more, it's still a low-rate world for most nonfinancial corporations, which have access to relatively cheap funds for expansion and capital investment. Asia and Europe are continuing to expand, with German and French growth accelerating in the third quarter. Exports of aircraft and other big items are likely to rise, too, supplying the U.S. economy with an extra lift. In other words, globalization has made consumers less central to the American economy.
Still, the consumer recession will hit some parts of the economy harder than others. Particularly at risk are retailers, who have already seen sharp declines in their stock prices since the extent of the subprime crisis became clear. Nordstrom shares, for example, fell from 52 in September to as low as 32 before rebounding. On Nov. 14, Macy's cut its sales forecast for the fourth quarter, sending its stock down to $28 a share from $43 in July. "Retailers are looking to pare inventories," says Rosenberg.
Not everyone thinks American shoppers are tapped out. Consumers have about $4 trillion in unused borrowing capacity on their credit cards, enough to keep spending afloat, points out Stuart A. Feldstein, president of SMR Research in Hackettstown, N.J., which studies consumer loan markets.
But executives from Capital One Financial, Bank of America, Discover Card, Washington Mutual, and others have told investors in recent conference calls that they are using more caution in extending credit. Chief Financial Officer Gary L. Perlin of Capital One, the nation's No. 5 card issuer, says he believes last year's historically low defaults by credit-card holders were partly driven by the real estate boom, particularly in previously hot housing markets such as Arizona, California, and Florida. Those benefits also have seemed to run out. As a result, says Perlin, Capital One is tightening lending standards and limiting credit lines.
More rate cuts by the Fed can cushion the impact of the consumer cutbacks but not avert them altogether. It's best to think of this as the end of a long-term spending and borrowing bubble, where the role of policy is to keep the inevitable adjustment from turning into panic. "The Fed's job is to keep us all calm and reasoned," says Carroll.
Everyone now seems to be coming up with remedies. At a Nov. 8 congressional hearing, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested legislation that would temporarily add liquidity to the jumbo loan market. And the possibility of a consumer slump already has Presidential candidates and their staffs looking ahead. "Potentially, the next subprime crisis is the issue of credit-card debt," says Austan D. Goolsbee, economic adviser to Democratic hopeful Barack Obama and a professor at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. The Illinois senator's view, says Goolsbee, is that the U.S. needs to improve oversight in the credit-card market. Republican candidate Mitt Romney suggests eliminating taxes on savings and investment by low- and middle-class families, a move that could help make up for a tougher credit environment.
The politicians can say what they want. Recession or no, Americans had better get ready to tighten their belts.
Copyright © 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights
JWN Nordstrom beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line; guides FY08 EPS above consensus (30.52 -1.99)
Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.59 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.52; revenues rose 5.2% year/year to $1.97 bln vs the $1.96 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.93-0.97 vs. $0.93 consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.87-2.91 vs. $2.76 consensus.
How about just Black November?
Long JWN @ $33.70 way oversold. Looks like a decent value here...
Nordstrom Reports Third Quarter Results and Announces Expanded Share Repurchase And Approval of Quarterly Dividend
Monday November 19, 4:05 pm ET
SEATTLE, Nov. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE: JWN - News) today reported net earnings of $165.7 million, or $0.68 per diluted share for the third quarter ended November 3, 2007. For the same period last year, net earnings and earnings per diluted share were $135.7 million and $0.52, respectively. Total sales in the third quarter were $1.97 billion, an increase of 5.3 percent compared to sales of $1.87 billion during the same period in fiscal 2006. Third quarter same-store sales increased 2.2 percent.
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(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20001011/NORDLOGO)
Our results include $20.9 million, net of tax, or $0.09 per diluted share, for the sale of the Faconnable business, which closed during the third quarter. Third quarter adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.59, which excludes the gain on the sale of Faconnable, increased 13 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Included in our earnings per diluted share is a $0.01 benefit of a reduction in weighted average shares outstanding resulting from our stock repurchase program during the quarter.
The 53rd week in fiscal 2006 created a timing shift in the 4-5-4 calendar for fiscal 2007, which has 52 weeks. This timing shift positively impacted sales results for the third quarter of 2007.
THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
Our focus continues to be to grow market share by providing customers with a well-edited selection of designer, luxury, and quality fashion merchandise. We will also continue to strive to offer friendly, knowledgeable, welcoming service, both in our stores and online with an integrated offering and experience. The company is focused on improving results through existing and new stores and Nordstrom.com.
-- Same-store sales increased 2.2 percent for the quarter, within the
company's revised low to mid-single digit same-store sales outlook.
Merchandise categories with performance above the same-store average
for the quarter were designer product across categories, accessories,
and men's apparel.
-- Gross profit, as a percent of sales, decreased 38 basis points compared
to last year's third quarter. Merchandise margin rate was unfavorably
impacted by increased markdowns. During the quarter, the company made
good progress in aligning inventory levels to business trends. We
believe inventories will be in-line by year-end.
-- Selling, general and administrative expenses, as a percent to sales,
decreased 70 basis points versus the same period of the prior year
primarily due to reduced performance based incentives.
-- The company opened three stores in the third quarter in Natick, Mass.,
Novi, Mich., and Denver, Colo. and a Nordstrom Rack store in Tukwila,
Wash. These stores have generated a great response from customers and
to date have exceeded expectations.
SHARE REPURCHASE & CAPITAL STRUCTURE
The company's board of directors has authorized an additional $1.0 billion in share repurchase to bring the total authorization to $2.5 billion. The increased share repurchase authorization reflects management and the board's continued confidence in the company's long-term growth potential, financial outlook and positive cash flow generation. In advance of the revised authorization, management and the board of directors conducted a review of the company's capital structure and concluded that Nordstrom should add a moderate amount of leverage, recognizing the greater capacity for debt associated with the credit card business and the general under-leverage position of the balance sheet relative to current operating cash flows. Management plans to establish a new balance sheet leverage target, which should lower the company's weighted average cost of capital and still support the current range of credit ratings (low single "A" with S&P, "Baa1" with Moody's).
Nordstrom repurchased approximately 16.4 million shares of its common stock during the third quarter for approximately $750 million. The amount spent during the third quarter represents roughly half of the $1.5 billion share repurchase program that was authorized at the beginning of the quarter. Repurchases under the revised program may be made through the end of 2009. The actual number and timing of share repurchases will be subject to market conditions and applicable SEC rules.
CAPITAL INVESTMENT UPDATE
Nordstrom's board of directors recently approved the company's budget for capital expenditures for the 2008 through 2012 fiscal years. The total amount planned is for $3.0 billion over the five years, with approximately 80% of the capital allocated to new stores, store relocations and store remodels.
QUARTERLY DIVIDEND
Our board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.135 per share, payable on December 14, 2007, to shareholders of record on November 30, 2007.
2007 OUTLOOK
For the fiscal year ending February 2, 2008, the company anticipates earnings per diluted share in the range of $2.87 to $2.91. Our outlook includes the effects of the company's securitization transaction backed by the co-branded Visa and private label receivables, the gain on the sale of Faconnable, share repurchases through the third quarter, and other non- comparable items. Outlined in the table below are the anticipated relative effects on earnings per diluted share from non-comparable operating items expected for the remaining quarter of the 2007 fiscal year.
Updated full-year 2007 operating plan versus the prior year:
Fiscal 2007
Same-store Sales 3% to 4% increase
Gross Profit (%) approximately flat
Selling, General and
Admin. Expense (%) 10 to 25 basis point increase
Interest Expense, net $20 to $25 million increase
Other Income $25 to $35 million increase
Effective Tax Rate 38.6%
Earnings per Diluted Share (which
includes the gain on the sale
of Faconnable) $2.87 to $2.91
Diluted Shares Outstanding 250.0 million
Prior Year Earnings per
Diluted Share $2.55
Actual and planned performance for the quarters of fiscal 2007:
First Second Third Fourth Fiscal
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 2007
(Actual) (Actual) (Actual)(2) (Plan) (Plan)
Same-store sales: 9.5 % 5.9 % 2.2 % approximately 3% to 4%
flat
Earnings per
diluted share:
(a) Expected
results from
comparable
operations: $0.59 $0.79 $0.57 $0.93 to $2.88 to
$0.97 $2.92
(b) Impact of
including non-
comparable events:
1. Securitization
transaction (1) ($0.01) ($0.03) ($0.02) ($0.01) ($0.06)
2. 53rd week
timing shift &
calendar $0.02 ($0.03) $0.03 ($0.02) -
3. 2006 Visa /
MasterCard
settlement - ($0.02) - - ($0.02)
4. 2006 53rd
week results - - - ($0.02) ($0.02)
5. Gain on sale
of Faconnable (2) - - $0.09 - $0.09
Reported results
(combine a+b
above) $0.60 $0.71 $0.68 $0.88 to $2.87 to
$0.92 $2.91
(1) Notes on the $850 million securitization transaction:
-- With the completion of the securitization transaction, the company
began a new accounting treatment for the co-branded Visa receivables
and securitized debt, which is secured by both the co-branded Visa and
private label receivables. In the first quarter, pre-existing co-
branded Visa receivables totaling $943 million were recorded on the
balance sheet initially at fair value with no allowance for credit
losses. Normal write-offs for uncollectible Visa receivables and
other costs net, estimated at $20 million, will be recorded in Other
Income over the eight month period following the transaction. This
period is equal to the average repayment life of the acquired
receivables. This expense activity is expected to reduce annual
earnings per diluted share by $0.06 and will be non-recurring in
future periods beyond the 2007 fiscal year.
-- Income and expenses from our co-branded Visa receivables that were
previously reported net in Other income (under securitization
accounting guidance) are reclassified in our earnings statement. In
fiscal 2007, bad debt and write-off expense is expected to increase
approximately $25 to $35 million and impact the SG&A rate by 30 to 40
basis points, with an accelerated portion in the second quarter.
Interest expense, partially offset by interest income, is expected to
increase approximately $20 to $25 million. Other income is expected to
increase $35 to $45 million. The net combination of these expenses and
income is anticipated to reduce annual earnings per diluted share by
$0.01.
(2) Notes on the sale of Faconnable:
-- We closed the sale of the Faconnable business in the third quarter of
2007, and the company realized a gain of $33.9 million on that sale.
The gain on the sale of Faconnable, net of tax of $13 million, had an
impact of $0.09 on earnings per diluted share.
FOURTH QUARTER 2007 OUTLOOK
For the fourth quarter of 2007, earnings per diluted share are expected in the range of $0.88 to $0.92, including a $0.05 negative impact from the non- comparable items described in the performance table earlier.
The timing shift from the fiscal 2006 53rd week is expected to have a negative impact on the fourth quarter 2007 sales results. During the quarter, the impact of the shift will be more significant than it was in the first three quarters of 2007, as a week of holiday shopping is shifting from December to November. When compared to the planned same-store sales rate of approximately flat for the 2007 fourth quarter, the monthly same-store sales rates in November are expected to be above the anticipated quarterly rate. In December, the monthly same-store sales rate is expected to be below the anticipated quarterly rate.
CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION:
Company management will be hosting a conference call and webcast to discuss third quarter results at 4:30 p.m. (ET) today. To participate, please dial 212-547-0138 ten minutes prior to the call (passcode: NORD). A telephone replay will be available by dialing 866-396-6249 beginning approximately one hour after the conclusion of the call until 2:59 a.m. (ET) on November 23, 2007. Interested parties may also access the call in listen-only mode over the Internet by visiting the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate Web site at http://www.nordstrom.com. An archived version of the webcast will be available at this location until December 17, 2007.
Nordstrom, Inc. is one of the nation's leading fashion specialty retailers, with 157 US stores located in 28 states. Founded in 1901 as a shoe store in Seattle, today Nordstrom operates 101 full-line stores, 51 Nordstrom Racks, two Jeffrey boutiques, one free-standing shoe store, and two clearance stores. In addition, Nordstrom serves customers through its online presence at http://www.nordstrom.com and through its catalogs. Nordstrom, Inc. is publicly traded on the NYSE under the symbol JWN.
Certain statements in this news release contain "forward-looking" information (as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) that involves risks and uncertainties, including anticipated results for the fiscal year ending February 2, 2008 and our fourth quarter, anticipated monthly, quarterly and annual same-store sales rate, planned capital structure and targeted leverage position, capital investments, the timing and amounts of share repurchases, and trends in company operations. Actual future results and trends may differ materially from historical results or current expectations depending upon factors including, but not limited to, our ability to respond to the business environment and fashion trends, effective inventory management, the impact of economic and competitive market forces, successful execution of our store growth strategy including the timely completion of construction associated with newly planned stores, relocations, and remodels,, our compliance with information security and privacy laws and regulations, employment laws and regulations and other laws and regulations applicable to the company, successful execution of our multi-channel strategy, our ability to safeguard our brand and reputation, efficient and proper allocation of our capital resources, successful execution of our technology strategy, the impact of terrorist activity or war on our customers and the retail industry, trends in personal bankruptcies and bad debt write-offs, changes in interest rates, our ability to maintain our relationships with our employees, our ability to control costs, weather conditions and hazards of nature that affect consumer traffic and consumers' purchasing patterns, and the timing and amounts of share repurchases by the company. Our SEC reports, including our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended February 3, 2007, contain other information on these and other factors that could affect our financial results and cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking information we may provide. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events, new information or future circumstances.
Investor Contact: Media Contact:
Chris Holloway, 206-303-3290 Michael Boyd, 206-373-3038
Bloomberg.com reports that analysts at Birinyi Associates think the late-day sell-offs in the U.S. stock mkt this month may have been triggered by so-called quantitative funds dumping their holdings. The last 30 minutes of trading accounted for 80% of the losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between Nov 7 and Nov 15, data compiled by Birinyi show. When global equity markets tumbled in Aug, 65% of the declines were in the final half hour of trading. "We wonder if there are not again some quant funds experiencing deja vu," Jeffrey Rubin, director of research at Birinyi, said in an interview. "There are some similarities now with the July-August period that I don't think should be ignored.'' Quantitative managers were blamed by some investors for a sell-off that wiped out almost $400 bln in value from the Dow average from July 19 through Aug. 16. Funds were forced to sell because many owned the same holdings and ran similar computer models that were equally jarred by widening credit spreads and increasing stock-price volatility. Goldman Sachs' Global Alpha hedge fund fell 22.5% in Aug on losses from stock and currency trades. Goldman blamed the decline on too many quantitative funds making the same trades.
CRM Covered @ $55.90 Ouch! eom.
Short CRM @ $53.90 eom.
Fed Speak...
08:25 Fed's Poole casts doubt on need for more rate cuts - DJ
08:25 Fed's Poole: Current forecast sees weak 4Q, then rebound - DJ
08:26 Fed's Poole still does not expect recession - DJ
08:26 ADSK Autodesk downgraded to Buy at Needham- tgt $56 (47.46 ) -Update-
08:26 Fed's Poole calls current inflation 'low and stable' - DJ
08:47 Kroszner says oil price may put 'upward pressure' on inflation
08:46 Kroszner says absent changes, more rate cuts less of a shield against risks, more likely to cause inflation
08:46 Kroszner says downward pressure on house prices, weaker home sales, construction cutbacks likely
08:46 Fed's Kroszner says Fed's easing brought downside growth risks roughly in balance with inflation
08:46 Kroszner says U.S. job market conditions 'relatively strong'
08:46 Fed's Kroszner suggests further rate cuts would raise inflation risk - Bloomberg
08:45 Kroszner says core inflation date 'more favorable'
08:45 Fed's Kroszner says series of data showing economic rough patch would not suggest current policy inappropriate
Covered CRM @ $48.70 good luck with it.
These guys are some cocky MFer's, I guess they are enjoying it while they can, openly trashing Siebel, Oracle, Microsoft, not worried about competition from anyone.
Even if they really are that far ahead of everyone else, you don't stay there by being cocky about it and dismissing your competition.
Didn't say much but the analysts will probably gush over the Citi win and raise their price targets to $100.
Very surprised by the lack of volume in either direction.
Are you listening to this guy? He sounds like he should be doing an infomercial on late night TV.
YTD they got $123 mill in free cash flow, over ten times their earnings.
Not bad for a company with a $6 Billion market cap! lol.
You're screwed...
Filled Sell Short 100 CRM Limit 50.25 -- -- 16:25:22 11/15/07
Filled Sell Short 100 CRM Limit 50.48 -- -- 16:28:55 11/15/07