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Bac... the NDX didn't break the channel yet... The NDX might be more stable for you to track than the actual QQQ
Closing remaining 1/3 long positions.
Syl..Thanks for the channel education the other day. I never fail to learn in this room.
Here is the link to this weeks "The Trend Surfer" newsletter which I assist on.
I think the conclusions of the analyst, Henri Straetmans are generally in line with what most of the Black Box gang have been pondering this week.
http://users.skynet.be/bk340711/NewsLetters/Issue%204.pdf
Hope you enjoy it. Please feel free to distribute the link to whomever you like.
Anyone wanting to be on the regular email distribution can send a request to subscribe@thetrendsurfer.com with 'Subscription to your newsletter' as the subject.
Wishing good trading to all this week.
Thanks...this can be very useful!
Steve... if you have a minute would you elaborate on what your "Close on Low" signal is.
Always trying to learn
Thanks
SYL... Ultimately though...I really hope to develop a better sense of things ....much like you. I appreciate every post you take time to write.
SYL... Does seem a bit silly now.. still have 2/3's cash!
My logic was as follows.
1) Was 1/3 short and 2/3's cash going into tonight.
2) Longs that I sold last week were 7.2% lower on avg.
3) Want'ed to average in a hair long in case we didn't go much futher down.
So as you are fond of saying... I have lots of dry powder and I am just following my plan.
Suppose I would have traded differently if I still had a bunch of longs from the top.
Covering QQQ Short from 35.00 +.70
Buying back 1/3 of all longs sold last Wednesday/Thursday averaging back in.
WLD "EWJ" iShares Japan Tracking stock would get it for you during normal trading hours...
Bull... I think he just likes her in that sweater! LOL
Alex...We'll give you an "A" for effort. Plus I learned something too!
Thanks
Alex.. Darn fine play... would have really been a winner were it not for all this mornings carnage.
You said < just got some RFMD @ 11.71 in AH... just hoping too dump on the gap up tomorrow morning >
Amazon may be the catalyst to get the downside moving tomorrow. I was surprised how hard it nailed the QQQ
Disclaimer... Net Short...
Here are some of the more significant points about GNSS
Genesis Microchip's revenues are derived primarily from sales of the Company's semiconductor components into the flat-panel monitor market. For the year ended March 31, 2003, 84% of the Company's revenues came from this market. As a result, the Company derives a substantial portion of its revenues from a limited number of products. For the year ended March 31, 2003, the gm5020 dual-interface product contributed 26% of Genesis Microchip's revenues and the five products contributed 52% of its total revenues.
The Company's sales are also derived from a limited number of customers, with the largest five customers accounting for 55% of total revenues in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2003 (fiscal 2003). For the year ended March 31, 2003, two customers, Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics, Inc. each accounted for more than 10% of total revenues.
Competitors include Micronas AG, Macronix International Co., Ltd., Media Reality Technologies, Inc., Mstar Semiconductor, Inc., Philips Electronics N.V., Pixelworks, Inc., Realtek Semiconductor Corp., Silicon Image, Inc., SmartASIC Inc., ST Microelectronics, Inc., Topro Technology Inc., Trident Microsystems, Inc. and Trumpion Microelectronics, Inc.
Bits takes 1/3 QQQ short postion at close 35.00
Updates each Sunday
SYL, Analyst of this newsletter has drawn similar conclusions
http://users.skynet.be/bk340711/NewsLetters/Issue%203.pdf I thought it a tad bearish...Guess we have to wait and see. You guys may be proved correct.
<>this commentary isn't helping, is it<>
Big time WAHZ...
Black Box Gang - I have helped a new friend of mine publish a weekly newsletter of TA and E-Wave analysis on the NASDAQ. I think you'll find some interesting conclusions. At the very least it's a good alternative view point. I particularly like the Rate of Change analysis on page 5&6.
Here is a link to this weeks newsletter.
http://users.skynet.be/bk340711/NewsLetters/Issue%203.pdf
If you want to be on the weekly email distribution: send a request to thetrendsurfer@skynet.be with "Subscription to your newsletter" as the subject.
Enjoy
<>I'll give them credit for downgrading it after it broke 20 after initiating it as a buy at 120
there timning is just a little fu34ed up but hey its tough out there<>
And these analyst get paid large salaries too.
I'm in the wrong business.
Great gap article, very informative. Can I surmise that you feel the gap from October 3rd was a continuation gap based on this article from HardRightEdge?
I've done that at least 100 times... However, not losing money is the second best thing to making it!
Wow I may have just learned something here... Good call
A bounce off the 13ema is still about 15 cents lower than where you are... Be carefull good buddy
It's nuts that the NYSE is still uses specialists.
The world would be much better with an electonic order book model for all securites.
No doubt they don't want their cartel busted anytime soon.
And we are surprised by front running..imagine the tempation.
Thanks Wahz...this is very insightfull and exactly what I was looking for.
Wahz.. Trading Question
Before asking let me reiterate how much I have learned by hanging in your site.
We always hear you state that you are adding position on stock dips...
Assuming that you are not a bottomless pit of sideline cash... we rarely hear where you are taking profits or lightening positions to free up cash for further purchases.
Any comments your overall exit strategy would be cool.
My problem is that I see these dips with you..but many times am fully invested.
Maybe you just lighen up positions on big pushes when I am not doing that.
Any commentary would be appeciated... Of course, after the market closes if you're busy.
TIA
Public Ameritrade Bashing...
To all that care...I think Ameritrade Su_cks. I went to lighten up all of my long positions this afternoon feeling that the market was going to pull back big tommorrow (hope I am wrong). All my orders just sat there.. went to cancel them and the system was hung.. Called on the phone and was left to muzak for 30 minutes until moments before the closing bell. Seems they were down and couldn't do anything for me.
My only salvaton is that at the last moment, I thought to start posting market orders knowing that they may have to honor them. As of this post they honored 2 market orders, refused a limit that I know was traded through and shamelessly will do nothing for the rest of my trades.
I am very pissed.
No doubt we gap down hard tomorrow just because I am stuck with these freaking trades.
%$%
Sh_t one of my accounts is with Ameritrade and the system is total hung...bumms have had me on hold for 15 minutes.
I may have to move this account.
Anybody else screwed or is this just me.
Wahz...at what stike did you buy the EMC options.
I am not an option player..but want to learn
Wahz...comment to the on-deck list.
I don't think SUNW is worthy of your list.
1)Expensive proprietary hardware. Intel based units have closed the gap and Linux has corporate credibility.
2)UNIX/SUN employees are still harder to find and retain than the jillions with Wintel experience.
3)Large server farm upkeep costs more than ripping it all out for smaller Intel based units.
4) Microsoft will trump any significant software move they make. Particularly around software as a service.
I think this is a company near death....
IMHDO
My Vote...
I think we go to 2100 (2080) before 1800. No major resistance to the upside until 2080 which is darn close to 2100. This was the peak from the first week of Jan, 2002
I will particulary feel this way if we make it though this week without a big sell and if some of the negative divergences that abound, clear up.
Holding breath and longs until then.
HeavyDuty,
I think http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID95481 will take you staight there..
If not go to:
1) Stockcharts home page
2) Then public chart list on the left hand side under charts
3) Then Nasdaq Composite Dashboard which is the 7th link down
Yes rare indeed both down or up... however, they ususally get good follow thru. IMHO
Not really sure... I only starting following him in Sept...
Presently he seems to give a bullish case a bearish case and documents his triggers that would strenghen each case as the market action dictates.
No doubt we all have multiple people we watch...he is just one of mine. Always good to get multiple view points.
In case you really want to know....A distribution day happens when the market opens higher than previous day, the market closes lower than previous close, volume is higher than previous day and is greater than the average, lastly that there is a huge variation in price (>3%).
Just like September 24th
Edit: LJK..not meaning to imply that you should do anyting different if that kind of day shows up. Just that it would strenghen the 7% pullback scenario if it happend...and that a lesser or no pullback would occur if it didn't (statistically speaking)
They are part of the analytics done by Henri Straetmans. If you go to the public charts in StockCharts his work is listed as The Nasdaq Composite Dashboard. He is in Belgium so you have to read through some of the grammer issues. Further, he started a weekly (email) newsletter and has graciously allowed me to help.. He is currenly my second favorite prognosticator...after the Wizard of Wahz.
Regarding the scenarios discussed....
My two cents are(actually the brilliant comments of a friend)
1) Since we made a new high in the last several days..
2) And since this new high was on the break of a bullish flag formation (strangely shaped but a bull flag none the less)
3) That we need to look for a true distribution day during this week. (i.e. within five days of the new high breakout.
4) If we get this distributin day, we likely make bigger pullback
5) If we don't get this distribution day we go higher for now.
Edit: There is also huge resistance at 1940 that dates back quite some time. If we make it solidly through 1940 this week...the bullish case is strengthened in the near term.
Not me... I was to greedy to trim back
Documentum $$$ Just in case you didn't hear it on the news.. DCTM gets aquired by EMC. 29% Premium...stock purchase