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Alea,
obviously this could have a negative implication to companies that allow it to happen. It has been getting front page press for many months. It's like saying I am going to get hungry if I don't eat...pretty obvious. The point that I was trying to make poor sales are the result of executing poorly on something. You need to evolve to the situation.
The bottom line is you have to trust someone. The bottom line is you need to adapt to your environment. The bottom line is there is always an excuse not to sell something. The companies that prosper don't need excuses, they simply execute and go about their business. There exist ways to turn negative situations to your advantage.
It is easy to infer what you want out of a statement. My point was Wave does not need excuses. Evolve to the situation and sell.
The post you are referring to: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=93352114
Alea,
do you know who uses excuses? Companies that are not meeting expectations. When you achieve you say, "look what we have done". When sales disappoint you say, "the economy is bad". "Supply was disrupted." "Foreign competition."
If you are pointing to what I said about the NSA, you inferred what you wanted. The US markets are at all time highs, in spite of NSA revelations. If anything, Wave could use this to their advantage as Solms stated on the call. This should be a non-factor and if anything a benefit to Wave.
"No more fluff."
Anyone addicted to inflated and ultimately unmet expectations probably experienced a shortage of puffery on the call. If Solms is who he wants to be/says he is, the place between here and there (next earnings) should start a new trend as results trump words. New expectations that results trump words will abound if this is shown. If he can deliver, the greatest distress should be experienced in the window between his first call and first results when there are the lowest expectations and no associate results; the lull. I believe he believes himself to be an over deliverer. Time will tell! Two believes in one sentence and a lot of ifs!
New Wave TCG Rep:
Andy Avery
Director, Promoter Board Member
Wave Systems Corp.
http://www.trustedcomputinggroup.org/about_tcg/board_of_directors
Conference Call
Once he settled into the call, I thought Solms did a really nice job. He addressed many concerns. It sounds like Wave may be entering a new era of over delivering (an oxymoron around here).
He wants accountability and he is challenging status quo. He is placing a premium on results. He noted the balance of today/tomorrow; he talked about bringing in some new talent. A base can be built from here and if he can do what he thinks he can, it will be. From the words of Nike: just do it.
Alea,
Huh? It looks like the NSA found their way around quite well without the TPM. The TCG is an open standard and anyone can build the components. No back door if you control the manufacturing and the keys. You can build the Alea TPM. Based on the limited NSA endorsing and usage, I presume the TPM is backdoor free.
The market is more efficient at pricing liquid investments with established business.
Someone needs to be trusted, unless the digital age is not for you. An open standard by definition, is more trustworthy from my vantage point.
Alea,
my opinion is backed by the public markets which have done a collective yawn on the implication to these companies. You have to trust someone or you might as well go back to paper. Who are you going to trust? An open standard or other? I would trust the open standard, but that is just me.
Bottom line: This is not a TPM issue. It is one of trust. It will affect all equally and might be beneficial to open standards like the TPM. What has not been compromised?
Alea,
Until Google, MS, Yahoo and others start using NSA association (all implicated) as reason for lost biz, I do not see NSA participating in the TPM open standard as a hurdle. It only serves as an excuse to a hard to understand slow adoption rate. I think there are real reasons previously mentioned that are real hurdles. At present, this one is nonsense to me.
Security needs to be procured from somewhere. Who are you going to trust if you do not trust an open standard? Answer: No one and if you are off the grid the TPM will not be of much use to you anyway.
Alea, true, but American corporations (unless it hurts sales) and gov are not worried about the NSA. At the same time, it is an open standard. When entities are procuring pcs from Dell, Lenovo, and others with chips from many manufacturers and hardware from all over and software from all over the last of my concerns is the open standard TPM.
Alea,
a crazy day. I agree, I thought the Stiennon article was bad. In addition to your point, I absolutely cannot see NSA repudiation as a driver of TPM usage. Simply a crazy thought from my perspective.
In addition, he wants an open standard than bars a group. Huh? I get the point he is trying to make, but it is a silly one from my perspective.
Alea,
It’s tough to get a handle on the timing of the CEO swap. Perhaps there was a deal hanging in the balance in what appears to be a (hopefully not "the") sweet spot for Solms -- gov. Considering his background and his brother's role at MS, there is no doubt Wave now has spectacular connections into gov. Perhaps Tim will slide into the DOD role at Wave and we can fire up the boards on a new family running the biz.
Anyone who has taken over operations from someone else knows there is a high probability Solms is completely shocked at some of the Wave ways right about now. It is sort of inevitable unless something is firing on all cylinders. At the same time, hopefully he knows of a better way. Sometimes status quo is best, but when it is not, it needs to be challenged immediately.
Whenever there was confusion over biz strategy in my corp days, I used to joke about which way the company was going and point my fingers in opposite directions. When you are racing in 10 different directions, you end up nowhere. There needs to be a focus to get to one destination unless you have displayed a strong aptitude to pursue multiple, competing tasks at a time.
For a company like wave, I (like many) believe it is incredibly important to shore up the financials and not to rely on dilution to fund business. If Solms can deliver this in short order along with demonstrating revenue growth without comprising the future, he will gain the confidence of many. If he can close the credibility gap (results = or >= words), he will gain the confidence of more.
There are a lot of good reasons Wave has not been able to sell more product up until this point. I hope Solms and Co. are able to put some of them to rest.
Blue, thanks -- I sincerely appreciate it. I am not going anywhere unless barge or player muzzle me. I just don’t have the stamina to argue with Alea. It takes me 10 minutes to hammer out one half way smart sounding sentence and then there are still grammatical errors. I just pretend like I am too busy. :)
Alea, you're pulling me back in!
Here are two quotes from your post: "looks like the corner is alive and well" and "to this extent, your post was culturally distinct from this environment". That is going beyond disagreeing with an argument from my perspective. I get tempted into engaging in the subtle jabbery and fall for it from time to time, but I personally do not need it.
Anything that happens from this point forward is an opinion. You seem like a smart lad and you have some good thoughts. Let's leave it at that -- have a good one!
Alea, as a self-proclaimed bean counter, Wave seems like an odd vehicle for you. Many things had to happen before any beans could be counted. I have employed and worked with many who need to see things before they occur to believe they can occur. For many bean counters things are black or white. Grey does not exist and cannot be counted.
Success was never imminent, but the probability for success has been changing and evolving for 10 years. As I have stated, Wave has needed wide-spread adoption of TPMs and/or SEDs to have a chance at success. This was not in Wave's direct control; this was achieved by industry and roof top yelling.
As I tell my kids, the true mark of honesty/credibility comes when speaking the truth may cause you personal harm. Everyone is truthful when they personally benefit.
Everyone knows the fool me once idiom. Wave investors refused to be fooled at some point and it is reflected in the share price. The unfortunate thing in all of this is that SKS recently stated he wanted to positively surprise investors one quarter. That quarter never came. Wave investors were very forgiving for the better part of 40 quarters
Because of the credibility gap, Wave's valuation is much lower than it could be. Some investors care about now and some investors care about later. Neither investor has been satisfied with Wave. Now Wave is still losing money and SKS credibility with regard to later was long ago damaged. I believe that if a credible message can be crafted that is believable, investors will be more willing to buy the stock; go ahead and disagree, but it is simple math to me.
I know you like to pat yourself on the back, so pat away. I hold a different opinion than you -- like it or not. I thought this board was open to different opinions or do they need to conform to your different and if they do not, you disparage the thoughts?
New Wave, considering SKS has invested great parts of his life in TCG tech, I would suspect he would want stay active in the space. TPMs and SEDs are making their way into everything. This is simply amazing from my perspective.
I would like to see Wave continue to innovate, but to fund innovation from sales. The happy middle ground for me will be for Wave to obtain a conservative cash neutral stance (can absorb a hiccup in demand), with a strong desire to invest capital in gaining critical early-mover advantage in this rapidly developing space.
By pushing the gas a bit too hard, Wave jeopardized its own ability to innovate by needing shareholders to fund day to day operations, which in turn hammered the stock and made funding innovation multiples harder than it should have been. A happy balance needs to be found.
Had I never heard of this company and I listened to SKS at Singular Research, I would suspect something was fundamentally broken. Here is a company that is a self-proclaimed and industry recognized leader in a space that is about to touch every digital device with a market cap that is worth 220 shares of BRK.A. The only way that could be possible was if the space was past its prime or if something was broken with the company.
In Wave’s case, there has been a large credibility gap that has grown every quarter for quite a few years and the credibility gap is reflected in share price erosion. While the opportunity has grown and the probability of success increased, the share price has declined. This is a problem that can be explained by one thing; shareholders do not believe or understand the opportunity. Steven’s improved messaging and delivery was matched by a decrease in shareholder willingness to listen to the message.
While some have disparaged his content and delivery, I had no problem with either. Personally, I am more of an A B C presenter, but at the end of the day if the share price is zooming you can be completely indecipherable and everyone believes you to be a genius. See Greenspan in the 90s. There is a simple formula for credibility. Meet or exceed your words and you are believable. When you get to the point that your words are dismissed, there is a problem. This has happened to SKS at about the same time everyone with a ticket to the game should be slapping a high-five.
Wave could appreciate by a factor of 10x very quickly on credibility alone. The base is deservedly confused. IF Solms can deliver results and give positive guidance there will be new found excitement. This is a very interesting story that could rapidly change at a moment’s notice.
This technology is making its way into all things digital because it is cheaper, quicker, more secure, and simply better. Right now, no one is buying Wave’s story. Hopefully Solms can tell one that people understand and believe.
All in my humble opinion.
Gen. Alexander.
I do not know if this is good, bad or meaningless for TCG tech.
NSA director Keith Alexander and deputy expected to depart in early 2014
Alexander, who was rocked by Edward Snowden's revelations, has formalized plans to leave by next March or April, officials say
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/16/nsa-director-keith-alexander-depart
Kaleid, there's more:
November 1998 – October 2013 (15 years)Lee, Mass
CEO and President helping form and lunch the Trusted computing industry and building the leading player supplying the solutions built on TCG standards which includes bacon security
Okay, the last part, "bacon security" (baked in) was added for humor.
iacta est,
you're missing a few points. Without TPMs and SEDs, Wave's business model is only theory. They represent a necessary condition for Wave to do business. They represent a chance.
The business use case potential this hardware is receiving massive votes of confidence by key players. Without strong business use cases, you would not see industry wide adoption of costly new hardware. While it seems like no big deal today, 10 years ago it seemed close to impossible.
In most cases supply will be met if there is demand. In this case, supply is necessary condition for demand. Does it guarantee demand? No, but it is a precondition.
Wave misunderstood the challenges they would face with a new product introduction. Chalk it up to lack of experience or different skill sets. Unfortunately for Wave, they likely have faced TPM saturation issues (only 30% of my network has TPMS), new product issues (How do I know this is better), limited product availability issues (SEDs/Opal drives) and a host of other hurdles they were likely ill-prepared to overcome.
If you have ever sold to a business, you understand all businesses are fully equipped today. Selling is not easy. Sometimes it requires brute force. Sometimes it requires incredible connections. Sometimes it requires undeniable value propositions. I have both sold to and purchased business services. People are busy and no one wants to buy anything…everyone needs convincing.
The TPM and SED business are in their infancy. Many investors happened to start following the business when Wave went on its first date. First they had to get lucky in every sense of the word. This may seem drawn out, but unfortunately it is a normal business cycle. Wave was hyped before they got lucky and before the industry they were going to sell into was even born.
Many are talking of a funeral while life has just begun. This is an incredible opportunity. Success is not guaranteed. Wave is positioned incredibly well and has an opportunity to flourish. Demand will not come with the industry in infancy. Wave has to create demand. Wave has to use brute force, connections and undeniable value propositions. In infancy, selling will be hard. Every deal is an accomplishment. As awareness builds and industry adapts, new selling challenges will emerge other than awareness. Business is never easy and requires constant adaptation. Having the right people in place to meet the new challenges that await are key to Wave’s success.
It’s funny how you speak of dreams dying when I see Wave’s opportunity growing and becoming more realistic with every new TPM deployed. Success is never guaranteed. &%it happens. It will take a ton of effort and some luck along the way, but the dream is alive and well.
By NO MEANS am I comparing Wave to Apple…different industries, different circumstances different everything. However, one person’s incredible effort forever changed that company and that industry. One bob instead of a weave and that story looks completely different. The point is you never know and some luck is required.
I have no idea why Sprague was let go. I mean, I have ideas, but none that have been validated. Until then, I am curious to find out what the new guy has to say. Wave’s future is now very tied to his vision, his leadership and his ability to execute. I believe the next conference call will be very enlightening one way or another.
Solms words will be very important to the immediate stock price. A majority of Wave investors have not heard a view other than Steven's regarding the company's position. No doubt words from a different perspective should be enlightening one way or another. Wave needs to build shareholder credibility and hopefully he is a guy who can help build it.
TPMs will soon be everything. SED are poised to be in all computers. Whomever can sell product to manage these devices will do fine. A change to a sales culture may be just what the doctor ordered. I look forward to hearing what Solms has to say.
New Wave,
thanks for the clarity. Given the credibility gap, this is perhaps a case where having an ear to the ground may have been helpful. Sometimes reality is over ruled by perception and this should at least be understood. Given the potential conflict, this is one they should have raced in front of and over disclosed from my perspective.
Solm's first public words on Wave will be very important. Considering you and others have noted a no-nonsense approach, his words should hold more meaning. On a separate note, with Solms at the helm, when Wave salutes a new product announcement, it is going to take on a whole new meaning. :)
Return,
you don't actually know that he was an employee of Wave. Many in consulting profession list themselves with a company on linked in while not being technically employed by them. PM is a common consulting role.
I don't know about alive and well -- predates the current CEO. Hopefully the dev. work was not done on Wave time. Definitely blurred at minimum. This might explain some things. The company should have a policy on conflicts of interest. Depends on how things were vetted, but considering the credibility gap, this was probably not the best call by Steven unless it was absolutely necessary.
Doh, I did not look at the filing. Looks like we found the licensor.
Problem? That's the largest buy from an insider in company history and at or above market.
Rich Lee CEO
http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=308067&authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=UJiO&locale=en_US&srchid=76594961381526890790&srchindex=1&srchtotal=1&trk=vsrp_people_res_name&trkInfo=VSRPsearchId%3A76594961381526890790%2CVSRPtargetId%3A308067%2CVSRPcmpt%3Aprimary
Rich Lee
Product Manager, Cloud Computing and IT Security
San Francisco Bay Area Information Technology and Services
Current
Wave Systems Corp.,
EXO5
Sr. Product Manager, Cloud Services
Wave Systems Corp.
September 2011 – Present (2 years 2 months)|Cupertino, CA
EXO5
Founder
EXO5
May 2006 – Present (7 years 6 months)
IT Director
Marelich Mechanical Co., Inc. / EMCOR Group
January 1999 – May 2006 (7 years 5 months)|United States
John McConnaughy Jr.
His seat may have been more instrumental than investors realized.
All I can say is wow.
This has to be out of left field for most including me. There is no doubt Steven has had a great vision related to trusted computing and has put forth great effort. A massive new industry is potentially forming that Wave helped create and is at the forefront.
At the same time, Wave is at historic lows. Since shareholders are not privy to every detail that occurs within a firm, success tends to be reduced to one very important metric: shareholder value. I know modest changes can generate significant benefits to a company. What is obvious to one person is out of the question for another. I don’t know the inside operations of Wave, so I cannot comment intelligently.
Factually speaking, there presently exists a credibility gap. Hopefully Solms or whomever else can close that gap. As Steven expressed, Opal drives and TPMs will be in everything. That is one massive opportunity for company that sells software to manage these devices.
Barge,
it was a very good presentation and the best I have heard from Wave. Steven addressed verifiable actions have been taken that size the opportunity. As I have stated, now it is up to Wave to seize the opportunity.
I listened to it while exhausted last night, but I recall thinking I would present Wave's position not too differently than the way he presented; not the feeling I typically have after a presentation.
If Steven would have forecast numbers, he would have been roundly dismissed anyway. Instead he took the path of here is the size of the opportunity, here is what is changing in the space and here is what we do and how we fit in.
There are no guarantees and everyone long wants hard numbers. People who get married to the past don't like inflection points. Is Wave near one? Steven pointed out that Wave has approached the inflection point without using that exact term. Had I never heard of Wave and I listened to the presentation, I would be doing some heavy DD right now and I believe that was the point of the presentation.
Gartner some more facts:
1) September 2012: Microsoft, Novell, Verdasys and Secude were listed as Niche players in the market.
2) A majority of the companies were not in the visionary quadrant in Sept 12. 40% were in this category.
3.) In Aug 2010 only 18% of the companies were in the visionary category.
4) Wave was listed as a Niche player in Aug 2010.
5.) At the end of the day, this is only someone else's educated opinion, so take it for what its worth. At the same time, relatively speaking, the opinion of Wave has improved.
If you have the Sept 13 version, please let us know if Gartner pushed Wave up on their ability to execute.
The website and the introduction to the product video are 10x improved. However, there is still somewhat of a fractured strategy since Wave is counting on MS and at the same time unable to support IE. Scrambls is a very compelling product IMO. However, at the end of the day product products that sell are more interesting to investors than compelling products.
New Scrambls website:
https://scrambls.com/
No, but TPM is clearly required:
"All new systems submitting after January 1, 2015 must have TPM 2.0."
No doubt key management should be easier to sell with the expanded capabilities of the TPM and the expanded market. That said, Wave still needs to go out and sell.
New to me:
http://download.microsoft.com/download/7/0/E/70E74967-B0FE-477A-974F-C1ED16EE31DF/windows8-1-hardware-cert-requirements-system.pdf
"It is recommended the TPM state when shipped is enabled and activated."
If beating encryption was my business and the most critical of my targets were suspicious of me and there existed the near impenetrable – I would endorse its use and establish guilt by association…crazy like a fox or just crazy?
Debora
Perhaps a COO candidate? 2 weeks later, we still have not heard about the TPM advisory due 2 weeks ago. Perhaps she got the Wave bug (causes unexpected delays) from a sneezing Steven at the conference...ha ha.
Why don't you look him up and tell the board. I simply furnished a link and noted it was an opinion.
Another interesting opinion Richard Steinnon:
Dig, I think the world knows Wave has had cash flow issues for years; nothing new there. You point to other possibilities that I did not contemplate.
I don't know that their backs are against the wall, but they are constantly brushing the wall. This is not the photographic film industry on the eve of the digital age. This is an emerging space. The hope is, it emerges. Hopefully, better, faster, cheaper wins.
Alea,
true and that is exactly why Wave has a miserable valuation. I was shushed for saying it too much on the other board or perhaps for repeating myself? That said, in banking committee meetings in my past people used to wonder why I had a two pages dedicated to one topic for years (MBS litigation)prior to any issues on the subject. If you don't know, this type of litigation eventually almost help shut down the world economy.
We can glean a lot from the past and I have had teams use it as a great predictor, but inflection points diminish the value of such information.
I have no issue with Wave trying to plant as many flags as possible before the rest of the world realizes there is gold underfoot. In the event this real estate is without value, having more of it will not make much of a difference either way. The opposite is not true.