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I think this board is pretty good. I don't get bored or tired of anybody's posts as long as they are not personal attacks. I also tirelessly post what I believe.
As far as I remember, you are an old timer long. Once upon a time, you were attacked by gloria.hymen filthily on the YMB.
Merry Christmas and happy new year to you.
Positive indications after the Oct. 9 flash crash:
1. FMR continues to buy and hold ARIA after the big plunge, which indicates the largest mutual fund is very confident on Ariad. Fidelity added 7.8 million shares, totally holding 27.4 million shares; Sarissa Capital bought 11.5 million shares; Camber Capital 10 million shares.
2. The ASH Annual Meeting abstracts (published on Nov. 7) and Ariad Corporate Conference Calls (dated Oct. 9, Oct. 18 and Oct. 31, 2013) indicate that the FDA has intensionally exaggerated the lifesaving drug Iclusig's SAEs in order for it to come down hard on the company as observed by Crédit Suisse analyst Jason Kantor. I firmly believe doctors know more about Iclusig than the FDA bureaucracy.
3. Doctors and patients support Ariad as evidenced by the York Time article published on Nov. 1 and the Boston Globe article published on Nov. 24. The FDA has to listen to doctors and patients eventually. Otherwise, the FDA would face lawsuits by patients, investors and Ariad Co. Patients has planned legal filings as evidenced by the conversation between Hans Loland and ariad_investor on the Ariad Yahoo Message Board.
4. The best indication is the poison pill adoption on Nov. 1 for thwarting off hostile takeovers. The poison pill indicates that Ariad CEO is not knocked down by the unexpected set back or conspired takedown. The company remains confident on itself.
Forget about your investment for 3 years. Then on Chritmas 2016, look at Ariad pps to give yourself a white Christmas.
Fama found that it is nearly impossible to predict short term changes in stock prices. In the 1960s he showed that knowing how a stock performed last week will do little to help determine this week’s prices.
Fama: impossible to predict short term changes in stock prices.
American professors Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller have won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences “for their empirical analysis of asset prices.”
University of Chicago professor Fama found that it is nearly impossible to predict short term changes in stock prices.
Their research showed that while it is difficult to predict asset prices in the short term, prices can be predicted in broad terms over longer periods, such as three to five years, according to the academy.
You have to think what the value of Ariad is 2 to 3 years from now. For a newbie here who doesn't want to invest a lot of money, try investing in 100 shares of ariad today ($700 worth at $7 pps) and forget about your investment for 3 years. Then on Chritmas 2016, look at ariad pps to give yourself a white Christmas...
2da, thank you for your support and advices. Merry Christmas and Happy new year!
Thanks, Jesspro and AmpleKind.
We were "in denial" at the darkest time when the flash crash struck because we really knew what we owned. We were confident that Dr. Berger would turn things around as he did in 1999. We were right!
Joyakid was also on the list of "in denial" like us. I saw her post here right after the flash crash.
BOA should fire Rachel McMinn; She has hardly been right on Ariad. She is no better than gloria.hymen and pork_sandwiches about this stock.
When ARIA rose to $25, Rachel McMinn acted as a pumper and raised the price target to $30. When the flash crash brought ARIA to $4, the same Rachel McMinn lowered the target price to $2 and lowered AP26113's value to ZERO. What a paid pumper and basher!
She is pathetic as pointed by biotech_researcher.
I'd rather listen to Gloria/Pork than Rachel McMinn.
Only certain pathetic persons listened to her and sold this stock.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94808455
Lax, you need to listen to McMinn on all the Ariad CC over the last 12 months. She is Pathetic ... She missed the original run up, and now thinks Ariad is worth $4. Best contra indicator in the world. Condescending B.
You will regret if you Don't Buy Ariad Pharmaceuticals Shares At These Levels.
The seeking Alpha article would be creditable if it did not mention "billionaire Stephen Cohen's hedge fund SAC Capital that sold 6.82 mill shares."
SAC Capital was forced to sell because the government’s noose was tightening around the neck of billionaire Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital hedge fund.
On the day that the company first announced a hold on the product, the stock was trading in the $18 range. As of December 20, the stock traded in the $6 range. Although not without risk, we believe the company is currently undervalued and could trend higher as people begin to again speculate on the company's future.
We believe the company's next earnings call will serve as a catalyst date. The company will be able to discuss how successful the resumption of Iclusig sales was and give additional guidance about future sales and trials.
We expect Ariad to rally over the coming months into the large gap created by the October 9 news.
"ARIA shares are still the bags of gold. For the shares I bought at $0.625, the paper gain is 700%." ariadinvestor posted on Oct.9, 2013 on the flash crash news.
artware101: "That was one of the most pompous posts I have ever read. You are a really small human being."
"andy.pork.aknb9.fake.fraud.artware101, you are not a human being. You are a pathetic fraud&fake lowlife faking and attacking every faithful Ariad true longs filthily and racially.
One should not put any of his money in the stock market if he could not afford to lose it. Whether I make or lose money is none of the shorts and the frauds&fakes' business.
I did not lose my confidence on the gold bags of ARIA shares even at the darkest time."
CML is just 1/100th of ARIADs indication targets. You have to think what the value of Ariad is 2 to 3 years from now. For a newbie here who doesn't want to invest a lot of money, try investing in 100 shares of ariad today ($700 worth at $7 pps) and forget about your investment for 3 years. Then on Chritmas 2016, look at ariad pps to give yourself a white Christmas... Just my 2 cents.
William Blair Upgrades ARIAD Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) to Outperform.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Upgrades/William+Blair+Upgrades+ARIAD+Pharmaceuticals+(ARIA)+to+Outperform/9002938.html
Every dollar invested in this company may help somebody avoid death, in addition to our obvious objective.
Dew, do you agree with Hans Loland? He believes doctors know more about Iclusig than the FDA.
The clinical trial doctors have treated and examined the patients physically. Don't they know about the safety/toxicity of Iclusig more than anybody else?New Trials with low doses + Aspirin/Statin, Dr. Cortes suggested:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95203430
grandma, this flash crash if at all, made it a household name amongst medical experts. It is now stronger than before. Imagine, it will be marketed in Japan, China, Australia,Canada, South America and the rest of the world eventually. We're only talking CML. How about the other tentacles. Your BIIB comparison is not too far off...just my 2 cents.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95157237
"We will come through this stronger and as a better company, and Iclusig will prevail in Europe and, hopefully, in the US as well,” the CEO told the Boston Globe on 11/13/2013.
“Rather than work on several development programs in parallel, as we did before the reduction in force, we’re focusing the entire drug development staff on a single, very exciting target for solid tumors,” Berger said. But he declined to specify the compound Ariad scientists are investigating, or the specific type of cancer they will target.
Ariad will come through this stronger and as a better company. It will announce another new Best-In-Class life-saving drug for solid tumor cancer patients.
Why Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) is Soaring?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12163056/1/why-ariad-pharmaceuticals-aria-is-soaring.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
"The FDA isn't evil," said Hans Loland after the patients got the best possible Christmas gift gifted by the FDA God.
“For us patients, this was the best possible gift we could receive as we enter the holiday season,” Hans Loland, who has been taking Iclusig since he participated in a clinical trial in 2009, wrote in an e-mail. He is part of a patient group that advocated for the drug’s return to market.
Patients were willing to bring legal filings if needed.
This is almost identical to what Dr. Berger said at the 10/31/2013 CC. Patients supported Ariad that was right. Patients were angry about the FDA that was intentionally wrong.“The FDA cannot provide a comment, as these issues are under review,” an agency spokeswoman said Tuesday. “It’s important to note though that this action was not only based on event rates, but also the seriousness of these rates, where significant harm to patients was identified.”
FDA would face lawsuits by patients/investors/Ariad without the quick regulatory turnaround. Patients had planned legal filings.
"We were willing to picket the FDA and bring legal filings if needed, just glad it never came to that. I just think that the people making the medical decisions should be listening to our doctors first, they know better than anyone how the drug is working in their clinics.", posted Hans Loland on the Ariad Yahoo Message Borad yesterday.
I don't want to get greedy or stupid this time around.
Dr. Cortes: New Trials 30mg Pona + Aspirin/Statin:
Sb. posted at 5:00 am on Nov. 12: Ariad will partner Iclusig and restart an EPIC-like trial with 30 mg dose + a statin/Aspiprin"It really depends on the dose and the data we collect in the front line. Clearly, we need to run trials at lower doses. We don't rule out the front line. But it would have to be based upon data, not just hypothesis."
ASH 2013: CML - Clinical trial updates by Drs Cortes ..., Published on Dec 12, 2013
Didn't I tell you Ariad is not for sale?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95076491
Hans Loland: "Doctors know better than anyone how the drug is working in their clinics. I just think that the people making the medical decisions should be listening to our doctors first."
"... we shouldn't have had to go through this in the first place, there has to be a better way for the FDA to handle this, but with that said I'm super proud of how the patients reacted and didn't sit around waiting for something to happen. We were willing to picket the FDA and bring legal filings if needed, just glad it never came to that. We owe a lot of thanks to many journalists who picked up the story, and for the support of the AACR who helped connect us with the FDA. ... I just think that the people making the medical decisions should be listening to our doctors first, they know better than anyone how the drug is working in their clinics."
Patient group: "We were willing to picket the FDA and bring legal filings if needed, just glad it never came to that."
“For us patients, this was the best possible gift we could receive as we enter the holiday season,” Hans Loland, who has been taking Iclusig since he participated in a clinical trial in 2009, wrote in an e-mail. He is part of a patient group that advocated for the drug’s return to market.
“Although the outcome is positive as a result of the patients, doctors, drug company and the FDA working together, we wished this could have been done better without the massive disruption it caused,” Loland wrote. “Hopefully there are some lessons learned on how these things can be handled differently in the future when issues such as these arise.”
vidpok45 is an investor rather than a trader like you. You are not qualified to tell him what he should buy.
Do you know how long has vidpok45 been investing on ARIA?
Cantor: Ariad seeks approval as a first or second choice of drug to treat chronic myeloid leukemia.
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/bioflash/2013/12/ariad-may-still-try-for-approval-of.html?page=2
LMAO! What a crock! "ARIA will be the next BIIB and the next AMGN."
Cheers to the good doctors that provided the data that validated ICLUSIG and saved patients lives.
“For us patients, this was the best possible gift we could receive as we enter the holiday season,” Hans Loland, who has been taking Iclusig since he participated in a clinical trial in 2009, wrote in an e-mail. He is part of a patient group that advocated for the drug’s return to market.
“Although the outcome is positive as a result of the patients, doctors, drug company and the FDA working together, we wished this could have been done better without the massive disruption it caused,” Loland wrote. “Hopefully there are some lessons learned on how these things can be handled differently in the future when issues such as these arise.”
Two more years is nothing. I'm happy I didn't sell any shares during the disaster but was very fortunate not to have to do so unlike a lot of the good people here.
The investors that lost money should file a Securities fraud case.
But I would dearly love to see the bastards who were behind this at the fda and their hedge fund bosses pay for the extreme pain that this caused so many honest investors. ..if only that could happen but it won't.
The takedown which was orchestrated well in advance of the day on which it occurred, was due to information leaked to the same parties who have been running the stock up these last few days in advance of today's announcement. I'd like to know which prick at the FDA leaked information on both occasions to his hedge buddies so they could make hundreds of millions and ruin the life savings of many honest investors here like Doug and Jaybe to name a couple. This shit was absolutely criminal and needs to be investigated and prosecuted and the bastards who perpetrated the crimes should go to jail. Yeah right, call me a dreamer (another victim of these pricks).
How did Harvey sound? Bullish ,contrite?look for HB to file a law suit within the next two months.the fda is taking a back seat.
Ariad Upgraded by JMP to "Outperform" from “Market Perform”.
Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc was upgraded by equities researchers at JMP Securities from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating in a research report issued on Friday.
Analysts at BMO Capital Markets raised their price target on shares of Ariad from $4.00 to $8.00 in a research note to investors on Friday.
Separately, analysts at Thomson Reuters/Verus upgraded Ariad from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note to investors on Monday.
Analysts at Stifel Nicolaus upgraded shares of Ariad Pharmaceuticals from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note to investors on Tuesday.
http://tickerreport.com/banking-finance/95030/ariad-pharmaceuticals-stock-rating-upgraded-by-jmp-securities-aria/
BMO raised PT from $4.00 to $8.00 in a research note to investors on Friday.
http://tickerreport.com/banking-finance/95030/ariad-pharmaceuticals-stock-rating-upgraded-by-jmp-securities-aria/
I'd rather listen to Gloria or pork_sandwiches than listen to Rachel McMinn.
Only certain pathetic persons listened to her and sold this stock.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94808455
Lax, you need to listen to McMinn on all the Ariad CC over the last 12 months. She is Pathetic ... She missed the original run up, and now thinks Ariad is worth $4. Best contra indicator in the world. Condescending B.
Dew, the FDA changed its mind because of your standard SAE-reporting format?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95021812
"Rachel McMinn with Merrill Lynch is a complete unprofessional," said bloria_researcher.
Listing to Rachel McMinn is at your own risk. She is no more professional than Gloria.
so you think Ponatinib will have the same revenue once the fda allows it back in a salvage capacity as it would have had if the fda had maintained the standards utilized by Cortes and others? I don't see that possibly happening without another trial at a lowered dose at the very least.
Ariad will consider additional studies of Iclusig as a first option for patients, potentially with a lower dose, Berger said. He declined to comment further on those prospects, saying the company hadn’t yet made those decisions.
No news is good news while good news is pending as it has been proved by the last 2 days' price actions. They hedge fund managers have realized this, which is why they are covering their short positions. Short cover is far from over and will continue.
Any news will be good news because Ariad has run out of shoes to drop and has gotten the worst news thanks to the FDA. Don't you think so? You don't have to count on it. However, counting on it or not counting on it is at your own risk. You will see what is going to happen.
What happened to Ariad during 10/1999 - 03/2000 will probably be repeated. By 03/2014, ARIA may reach $50+ if history repeats. History repeats itself, doesn't it? Who knows?
I am not a trader. I don't predict target price because I don't think it is predictable. If anybody interprets my statement above that way, it is his/her freedom. However, he/she should have noticed the word "probably" in my statement. Ariad's history tells that during the period of 10/1999 - 03/2000, ARIA rose more than 50 folds. Who predicted when ARIA dropped below $1.00? History may or may not repeat itself. Who knows? When ARIA was at $25.40 in Oct, 2013, who predicted it would drop to $2.15 a year later? You were bullish back a year. you would have said $2.15 was off reality. However, it turned out that the reality was that people had to face the reality.
ARIA may reach $50. If it does happen, the shorts will have to face the reality. One usually doesn't realize reality until he/she faces it.
Honestly speaking, the sentence saying "ARIA may reach $50+ if history repeats" is actually for the shorts, not for the longs. The risk of shorting a stock is unlimited theoretically. $50 is a limited number, isn't? The risk may be more than $50 for a short.
Jesspro, very good post and very logical reasoning.
The 36 million shares shorted are the best friends of the longs. The shorts will be forced to cover.