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VRDM is now .22, up 70% on the day. Unreal. Am I glad I kept half my position or unhappy because I sold half my position at .18? I dont even know. I still think this is a silly stock, but I knew all this volume was leading somewhere. Still holding my half-position and not sure what I'll do with it.
HOKU beginning to perk up with the fuel cell sector running. I'm looking for significantly more upside on this one. Perhaps there will be some spill over from FCEL. HOKU just needs a good push and it'll run.
That one (KSWW) looks good if it can get some volume. It's a little too illiquid for my taste, but it does look like it could go if volume does come in.
VRDM is, in fact, breaking out. Almost .18 now on continuing big volume. I just sold half my position.
Tuna, are you still in VRDM? It looks like it might be breaking out today. I want out of it soon and today may be the day.
Thanks Newly. I'm amazed, and a bit overwhelmed, by all the technical tools Tradestation offers. It's miles beyond Etrade and the commisions are similar. From what I can tell the basic software platform (including the options component) is free if you meet certain trading requirements (either through balance or activity level), but you'd have to pay for things like RadarScreener (which seems like the only thing I might want to add). Is that accurate?
And, if I may ask, what has been your experience when calling in to speak with someone? Any long hold times? Do people seem knowledgable?
Hi Lee,
I've found the commissions are fairly similar on all the platforms I'm reviwing. Basically $7-$10/trade.
POLL/QUESTION FOR ALL:
I'm looking to change brokers/trading platforms and I'd really like to get as much input as I can. Basically there seem to be two options- your standard online brokers like Etrade, Ameritrade and so forth and the more sophisticated platforms like Tradestation.
I've always been with the standard group and I'm thinking of moving to one of the Tradestation-type platforms. The demo of tradestation I'm watching now is pretty impressive and is much more robust technically than Etrade.
What/Who do you all use?
Are you happy with your broker/platform?
Thanks everyone. I trust this will be valuable to others as well.
aya
OT-
Sorry for the baseball clutter...
You need to keep in mind that the game was very different in Johnson's days. Entire teams only hit 10 homeruns a year.
It's very difficult to compare baseball players across era's. I think the best you can do is compare how someone did against his peers. That's why Pedro stands out so much in my mind. Johnson, Koufax and others were undeniably great but if you compare them against their peers their numbers are not quite as impressive as they seem on the surface (which is not to say that their numbers are anything other than superlative, just that I dont think they are quite as superlative as Pedro's when you make these kinds of comparisons).
OT-
I think Pedro Martinez has had several seasons that can stand against any pitcher at any time.
1997, playing for the Expos mind you:
17-8
305 strikeouts in 241 innings pitched
1.90 era against a league average era of 4.21!
1999-
23-4
313 strikeouts in 213 innings
2.07 era against a league average era of 5.07!
2000-
18-6
284 k's in 217 innings
1.74 era vs. league average of 4.97!
2002-
20-4
239 k's in 199 innings
2.26 era vs. league average 4.42
Pedro's adjusted ERA+ (the ratio of the league's ERA (adjusted to the pitcher's ballpark) to that of the pitcher) in those years was 221, 245, 285 and 196 respectively. In 2003 he also had an ERA+ over 200.
For comparison, Kofax's top ERA+ scores- 190, 187, 161 and 160.
Guidry's great 1978 yielded a 208 ERA+ (excellent but a long cry from Pedro's 285 in 2000).
You're a funny chap.
What advantage does GSHF provide over VRDM, if you're playing this game? GSHF owns 70% of VRDM, which is the driver at the moment, and GSHF has a lot more shares outstanding. So why GSHF instead of VRDM?
Ultimately both are junk from what I've been able to glean. There's still a lot of volume and momo here so I'm riding VRDM, but not for very much longer. Come 4/28, VRDM will see significant dilution according to recent filings I read earlier this week.
I think that's very prudent advice. I have a small EGLF position but you are absolutely correct about the financing issues.
Of interest- a friend of mine is a bigwig at Golf Digest and he's been working with the Element 21 people. The impression I got was there will soon be some ads/reviews of their stuff in Golf Digest. He apparently plays cards with the CFO of the company and he confirmed they are looking to raise cash.
I think EGLF is a stock to watch but it may be prudent to wait before establishing a position. I'm probably going to sell my small position soon with an eye toward getting back in once the financing gets settled.
Are you still long BRCM? I was surprised to see your entry in that the other day. I have May puts and I think the stock looks awfully weak here.
Open order for some more VPHM Jan 07 7.5 calls hit today. Building to a pretty big position now. I also have shares but may look to sell those on a ramp now that I've got a lot of longer term options.
Good work Tuna! UNH is the one thing continuing to weigh on me.
Got to do some work for a while now. Keep watch on things and make sure all my stuff goes in the right direction. I'm counting on you!
Strong open for that VDRM. Should be an interesting one today.
Fish tend to find a way. 8^)
I dont know a thing about the stock (VRDM) other than the price, volume, chart and the fact that they are involved in ethanol. I wont be in it for long, but boy some of these little stocks have ridiculous moves. We're in it together for now!
Green is good Tuna. Congrats!
Have you looked at this VRDM thing? Crazy momentum and it looks like it might last at least into tomorrow.
IMO, GERN more than most stocks, depends on your timeframe. This is clearly a good support area for entry, but it's certainly possible it could go lower if it breaks this area.
I'm buying it here without too much concern because I think at some point, whether it's later this year or 2 years from now or whatever, the stock could well be a lot higher.
If it goes down to the 6's I'll double my position.
Against my usual inclinations with these things I decided to try a little VRDM at .0805. Ethanol stocks have gone crazy. I left A LOT on the table with both XTHN and PEIX (though I still have some PEIX). VRDM looks very strong here so what the heck.
Unholy if you ask me! I'm suffering mightily on UNH at the moment. Today marks the most volume in UNH in a good while. It'll probably trade 16 million shares today. Could be some capitulation in the works. I hope so and that this isnt a precursor to a real nosedive. Unless there is something really heinous going on behind the scenes I can't see this going a whole lot lower. I've got a cadre of losing positions in this stock though, so maybe I'm just hoping.
I wasnt looking for another chance to get more, but here it is. If I didnt already have a full boat I would add more here, but I do so I'm not. (HOKU)
Just got filled on GERN at 7.58. I've had an open buy on it for a long time now. This position is in an IRA and intended to be a long term hold.
I like the action! 8^)
Seriously though, the stock is up on nothing but a Cramer recommendation, and he liked it because of some energy drink that isnt even fully on the market yet. There are a million energy drinks out there, and I just can't see the one made by the people who bring us Fanta being all that exciting.
The low float makes it a high risk/reward. I think the upside is running on fumes at this point and it could easily fall all the way back to where this all began around 12.
Or another short squeeze could develop. I'd prefer if that didnt happen though. It is relatively strong in an otherwise down market, so we'll just have to see. I'll cover if it breaks the high it made this morning.
Not yet, but I think I'm going to join you on this one.
Short FIZ at 15.18.
That is the question most puzzling me at the moment. I can't explain the ongoing weakness in UNH. It's strange. It's one of these situations where the fundamentals and technicals aren't jibing. I haven't heeded Zeev's advice to believe the technicals, and so far it's costing me. However, technically speaking, it's is a pretty decent support area here. I'm considering buying more but I'm skeeeered.
Thanks for the update Dan. I like that IVN has hands in coal as well as gold and copper.
BTW, I picked up some MNEAF this morning at 1.10.
Hi Zeev,
That was the premise of the analyst who downgraded it this morning. It seems to be based on a statement made by the government that they would be cutting back orders of existing body armor.
The main problem with the existing armor is it's weight. It's not heavy (I think on the order of 5 lbs a set) but I've read a number of comments by military personnel indicating they dont like to wear it because it's too cumbersome/heavy.
CRDN is at the forefront of creating the next generation of ligher body armor. This will soon be adopted, not only by the military, but also by law enforcement.
Further, I believe we're headed for a military conflict in Iran. I hope not, but I think it's in our future. That will only require more armor, including vehicle armor which CRDN also supplies.
That's my thinking for being in this stock. It's a position I intend to hold for several months.
Why do you think this is a peak earnings year for CRDN?
Cautiously bearish in the near term. I'm short or have puts on GOOG, BRCM, NFLX, AFCE, BZH, MHK, and FSL. The techs are all intended to be relatively short term. The others (AFCE, BZH and MHK) I've been holding for a while and will continue to hold for a while longer.
Overall I'm holding more long positions than short, but a lot of my current longs are somewhat defensive (metals, healthcare, energy and defense).
I dont know whether that's sarcastic or not!
Aha-
Ceradyne, Inc. Receives $8.8 Million Order for Next-Generation Ceramic Body Armor
Tuesday April 4, 2:30 pm ET
COSTA MESA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 4, 2006--Ceradyne, Inc. (Company) (Nasdaq:CRDN - News) received a sole-source contract from the United States Special Operations Command not to exceed $8.8 million for next-generation ceramic body armor components.
These new components, developed by Ceradyne's research and development team to meet the Special Operations' unusual and compelling urgency, are scheduled to be shipped in the second and third quarters of 2006.
Joel Moskowitz, Ceradyne chief executive officer, stated that this order represents the first of what may be a new series of lightweight ceramic armor components to be used initially by the Special Operations Command and that he is proud of the level of effort and results that had been obtained by Ceradyne's in-house ballistic development team. He anticipates that these new components may become standard issue and, if that becomes the case, the next series of orders might be placed on an open and competitive basis. Moskowitz added that Ceradyne will be competing for future orders for this new-generation armor.
Ceradyne develops, manufactures and markets advanced technical ceramic products and components for defense, industrial, automotive/diesel and commercial applications. Additional information about the Company can be found at www.ceradyne.com.
You really should have held that CRDN- it just went positive. I'm currently sitting on a fairly big position from a little higher so I'm very happy to see this rebound on good volume. Perhaps a reversal of the recent downtrend? I hope so. Wish I had the courage to buy some more this morning when I saw it down $3 but I couldnt justify increasing my position any further.
In edit-
Maybe there's some news or something because it's now up over $1. I just got back to my desk so I've got to see what's going on.
Thanks. I was short during the S&P spike and covered in the 380's last week. That turned a nice positive position into a negative one. GOOG owes me!
I just think the market is due for a correction soon and I dont think GOOG is going to fill that gap above right now, so I thought I'd give it a shot here. It's not a big position.
Just started a short in GOOG at 401.30. Small starter.
Perhaps but I dont think so. I dont believe there was an unexpected delay in orders or anything, so there shouldnt be anything in the estimates that didnt come to pass. (ORCT)
Hi Zeev,
Regarding ORCT, they got an upgrade today from CE Unterberg Towbin who highlighted them as their "near-term top pick". I read the report and one thing that interested me (outside of speculation on further customers) was the fact that their current major customer, KDDI, just began their new fiscal year on 4/1. KDDI had indicated that they were holding off on new orders and deployment until their new fiscal year began, so it seems possible that they will now be giving ORCT some significant orders in the very near term. Something to consider as we move toward ORCT's earnings on 4/27. I expect some kind of positive pr on KDDI's orders before we get to the earnings date.
Adding SIRI short here.
Also adding Jan '07 7.5 calls on VPHM.
Looking to add to my AFCE short if it gets up to the 14.50 area, but I dont think it will.
Sold a little SSL, PEIX, DXCM earlier but still keeping positions in all three.
One night last week I was getting my kicks from Mr. Cramer and someone asked about IVN. He believes it to be a 'strong sell'. Don't hear him say that very often. It made me chuckle; and more confident in my position! 8^)
Thanks Joe. I actually picked up on them from you a good while ago and have been in and out ever since, only on the short side though.
Joe, do you still follow MHK? I've got May 95 puts and, I'm happy to say, they just warned-
Mohawk Industries lowers first-quarter profit view
March 30, 2006 16:25:21 (ET)
NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - Carpet and floor covering maker Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK,Trade) on Thursday lowered its first-quarter earnings estimate, citing higher accounting charges and lower sales growth in one of its businesses.
The Calhoun, Georgia-based company said it now expects earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $1.03 to $1.05. Analysts on average currently expect $1.22 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Mohawk said the LIFO (Last In, First Out) accounting charge for its Mohawk segment is estimated to be $13 million to $15 million this quarter, compared with $6 million for the prior year.
It also anticipated a greater improvement in sales and margins as the quarter progressed than was achieved in the Mohawk segment with sales growth of approximately 5 percent in the period.