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So - what's your point? Are you short now?
SMH meaningless v the SOX
a few bad apples: AMKR QLGC [ELX] hurting semi's
Take dip as oppportunity to BUY
Larry were you short AMKR?
QLGC 'confirms' eps - that's a stretch - more like a miss
Again..........
Can MER sales force dupe people to buy? Since the upped it recently.
This one is a dog - its biz is being supplanted by newer technologies.
That's why it has a relatively low pe to other techs.
Do not be fooled!
Another Exodus ..... which exited. [will just take longer]
Never a long candidate - always short/puts when semi around 95
[unfortunatelty it appears to have topped already]
SOX broke out as we all now agree, but stopped by 200d - good news [if you are a bull here] upper BB is 492.47, above the 200d at 488.67.
So we can and should slice through the 200d TODAY and push against or push open the upper BB
That's a measly 7 SOX points
Your Y says "$" and should be "%" perhaps the confusion
still would be nice to print semi value [cross of X axis] in the legend [for those who cannot tell exactly]
Note that the tops have values around 95! with slight std dev
bottoms around 7 or 8 with larger std dev
why not short SNDK or QLGC
I would not short CREE - its LED's are used in everything and a lot of everything electronic is going to be sold over the next year
FED move confirms economic growth despite the recent retail and car sales slowdown. Thus we are officially entering the 2nd phase of the bull market - typically the longest in point move.
So enjoy it!
No time to be negative. Any dips will be short lived as buyers line up bids under stocks. As stocks begin to move, money will pour in, pushing prices dramaticly higher.
Sorry - do not follow SMH option volumes
But semi rally is continuing [given it started 6/14]. SMH continues to lag SOX in performance - posted MACD buy after SOX and has not broken DT line. Does it lead its components or follow them?
I used to try to factor in volumes and put/call price/volume ratios, but found them to trap you once you thought you understood a pattern.
Sleeping....? how about some chart updates
Yes it's boring..............
Given action so far - semi's want to run [up]
C-PMI gave some pause, but BRCM for example ran to be DHH.
End of qtr sellers at work along with sellers at DT line.
Buyers looking for tech in next 2 qtrs to lead are winning the battle.
Wishy-washy action after announcement based on 'FED statement' may be tradable. I am raising some cash in anticipation.
[should have kept those SNDK puts - price war]
[also QLGC as some smaller storage co's saying sales down]
What if the FED does not raise rates??????
Car sales down - prices down due to rebates
Slow retail sales
Less refi activity
Jobs growing - but $ poor
Inflation will fall dramaticly for June
shhhh! don't tell anyone - SOX breaking out
again INTC is holding back
SOX/SMH has completed a very nice flag and ready to continue move to the upside.
I expect volume and price move which will open up and press the upper BB's
Bin Laden news has been very quiet - you can bet on us 'finding' him before the elections!
Check out these 2: MU TER
INTC move will push it through, perhaps not today
I did my part earlier - soaked up some seller action by banking some option profits in INTC and wrote the Jul 25 puts
here we are: SOX 480, INTC 27.60 like clockwork
INTC close to breaking its 3-4 day DT
getting some bids now - looking for 27.60 plus to start new up move. Crucial to SOX breaking out - duh!
Semi equips 'leading' for the most part with KLAC at new high from 5/3 pivot low.
KLAC new DHH and above May high - AMAT NVLS are not - yet
Lunchtime sneak up!!!!! Very telling
Out of QLQC puts - bought more XLNX calls
Update: calls purchased 6/14
KLAC Jul 45.00 - 1.95 now 3.60
MXIM Jul 50.00 - 1.60 now 2.80
BRCM Jul 42.50 - 1.80 now 4.00
I have been trading in and out on intraday moves and currently hold at least 100 contracts in each.
Plus calls in XLNX NVLS and puts in QLGC
Watch INTC closely for move over 27.60 which may be enough to spark SOX over 480 and Jan/Apr DT line
Watch? We could be on the verge of the best rally of the year in semi's.
First the short will have to cover, next the break of the 6 month DT will trigger traders to buy and the money will rush into a rather narrow pipe - thus big gains in the best stocks!
new semi highs - BRCM MXIM -who's with me?
INTC sitting on lower BB and holding everything back
3 day decline should end here with move above 27.60
out of SNDK puts at a loss
Enterring 5th day of sideways consolidation - just look at the semi numbers of late which show a narrow range.
This action brings the 10d SMA's up and narrows the standard deviation. Thus it does not take much price movement to be above or below the 10d any day later this week.
What does it mean? Any good dip could produce <10% and any good rise could produce >80 and perhaps higher given the current level.
Mkts are setting up for some action - I expect we start to climb and after the holiday week, we will accelerate as eps come out and Q3 guidance is above expectations.
I agree we need vol and we will get it.
Tue Wed should bring it on for qtr end & FED
SOX and SMH have both put in higher lows from over a month ago - now look for a higher high peak.
Are you short?
I call them the way I see them.
Les's Numbers have given false buy/sell before - you have to consider other analyses.
QQQ/NDX have broken 4/2 peak.
SOX/SMH consolidating last week's move at 20d SMA
Will move to upper BB - downside so limitted cannot trade it.
I do have puts in QLGC and SNDK and if they go against me in a rising tide - so be it - my calls are doing fine!
I picked up more XLNX calls today.
MACD: SMH buy signal - look for move to upper BB 39.12 area
BRCM continues to make breakout highs
semi's very close to breaking out - this time it should happen as rotation for next qtr favors techs.
Leadership change - as semi's start break-out will 'old' rules still apply?
[SOX artificially down because of ALTR 'drop' from funky close]
We should see minimal dips even from semi>80. Be careful in selling too soon - look for other confirming data before selling.
Right now, buy dips for quick trades.
Dealers caught off guard with early handover and mkts will churn a little to confuse people as to why it is not zooming.
Be patient. It will.
You have to be in semi-equips and remember my KLAC play on that mysterious huge booking that may or may not fall in Q2.
It looks like it may be time to look at MU again.
Due to bad close quote on ALTR - SOX close not correct?
Cramer thinks it was due to rebalancing
I show -
101K at 4:00 - 25.50
144K at 3:59 - 21.38
64K at 3:58 - 21.30
19K at 3:57 - 21.28
Perhaps trade should have been at 21.55 or 21.50?
If quote is in fact an error SOX should be something like 475.81 not 478.91.
So will we see an artificial down tick in the SOX on Mon or will they correct ALTR and the SOX closing prices?
Now that CNBC has reported it, let's see if the stock starts to move a little - went + when CNBC reported - it's a big nothing.
Sounds like Irag Governing Council will lay down the law when it gets 'control.' Martial law to collect weapons would be a very good thing!
We may see a very unexpected tough Iraq when the handover is made!
Curious - INTC holding back SMH/SOX advance
will it move 'em over lunch or are we in for another drift down close????
Semi equips leading - NVLS new DHH
KLAC missed DHH by .04 so far
XLNX finally getting some action perhaps aafter dogging it for weeks
NDX/QQQ - DHH so some stocks are moving!
bought calls on XLNX, puts on QLGC, SNDK
MACD: SOX gave buy Thu, SMH no buy yet
Semi's took some profits on bad economic data, but no pronounced selling. Today we are snapping back - need to see some DHH's in the likes of MXIM BRCM.
Semi's should keep edging higher as broader mkts flounder thru FED and turnover - both will be big non-events
I worry more about Bush in Turkey - a reason to be out for the w/e or hedged [perhaps some puts on QLGC now that MER glow may have run its course]
What are people's feelings on intraday v closing prices in making decisions?
Here is mine:
I feel that end of day prices are not relevant - they are just another data point and all of the other 449 minute readings muchless tick by tick should not be ignored for the sake of the 'final' numbers.
Using only the closing price came from convenience in a non-computer world, it was the only price published for all stocks - thus finding its way as the basis for almost all trading tools.
Since I do my own programming, I can create, for example, Bollinger Bands based on intraday highs, lows, avg thereof or whatever I can dream up.
Bottom line: semi numbers <10 or >80 occuring intraday are just as relevant [as end of day number] as they can occur frequently during reversals at extremes where the day before close was neutral and the current day close is neutral - but a bottom or top was actually made.
While on vacation I added to NVLS and KLAC Jul calls.
Now hold calls in only 4 issues: KLAC NVLS BRCM MXIM
Do not underestimate the move into semi's - it will be a stampede.
Worst thing you can do is to get out too early.
Semi's have been in the trash for almost 6 months and are finally getting some sponsorship.
Outside of the great ones [BRCM MXIM] semi equipment stocks are the most beaten down for all the worry that sales have topped - don't believe it - China is building a chip industry and is only starting - while traditional fabs purchases may slow, China will more than pick up the slack.
Question: how are you calculating your 10th day in the moving average.
1) Are you using today's price versus the past 10 days ending with yesterday's close?
2) Or are you using the last 9 daily closes and adding in today's current price for the 10th day to get you 10d SMA then comparing the current price to determine above/below?
May very well be - I will be on vacation for a week starting after the close - so, my bets will be down, and I will be watching.
With the semi-equip B2B today, semi's may well bottom or have bottomed today - let's see if they can start a little rally at these bargin prices before the news comes out.
Time to buy XLNX - broke through flat lower BB
My orders went in at -2.00
And the winner is ..... BRCM
Perhaps you should add MXIM to your nifty 11 list.
44.38 to 49.31 today is 11.1%
Looks like my system called the lull - now can the semi's get it going??????
I booked my Jun option profits in INTC and CSCO about 50/50 and wrote puts.
Plowed capital position back into calls - now running at almost 91% over my 'normal' exposure [investment]