Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Maybe we're talking about different people. Who are you referring to?
Don't disagree with that.
Most senators walk out of the chambers after they've had their Q&A time. Nothing unusual about that.
An MD knows nothing about business valuation, the same as a business valuation expert knows nothing about being a doctor. Circle of competence.
They can't. They're in conservatorship and they haven't came close to meeting the listing qualifications.
Watt has made it clear investors are not his concern. Nobody is thinking about investors except for investors.
90% of their assets were off-balance sheet items at that time giving them twice the equity value and they had less shares outstanding.
Of course they can.
What they call "misleading" was all disclosed in the footnotes of each and every 10-k and 10-q. They never read them.
Kitchen dining room table investors with no background in accounting. Without them, we'd never make a dime. So...thanks...lol.
They don't "get it" nor ever will "get it" which is why they invested in SunEdison to begin with.
I was a shareholder pre-BK. I made 56% on my investment on literally 2 hours of trading because I know what a DIP Plan is and saw it coming three days in advance. You need my help? Lol.
The shareholder committee is run buy a shoe salesman and a carpenter. It's a joke. They can't organize and can't calculate basic math because they don't have the professional acumen to read a financial statement. I warned them about the DIP 3 days before the DIP was released via 8-k at 8am EST in the morning before the market opened. NONE of them ever heard of a DIP. I guarantee they know what it means now. Can't fix stupid.
What would it take for nanologix, in the most extreme hyper-exuberant situation, to be valued at $0.07 per share? Let's look at the math:
Current share price: $0.072 pps
Industry Average PE: 58.8
Industry Average net margin: 15%
Shares Out.: 145,814,222
Assumptions:
PE: 100
Net Margin 25%
$0.072 / 100 = $0.00072 (EPS)
$0.00072 * 145,814,222 = $104,986 (Earnings)
$104,986 / 25% = $419,944 (Revenue)
So in order to justify a $0.072 pps, the company would require three things:
1. That fair value equals 100 PE
2. Net Margin is 1,000 basis points better than the industry average.
3. The company produces $420k per year in revenue.
Problems:
1. 100 PE isn't realistic for any company.
2. Net Margin isn't realistic due to the company's average annual expenses.
3. Point #2, company's average expenses are in excess of $1m per year which means revenue would have to produce $1.4m in revenue.
4. The company doesn't produce $420k in annual revenue. If they did, they'd let you know. They send out emails letting you know when they sell $1,000 worth of product. I assure you, if they sold $420k, you'd receive 20 emails per day.
Common sense dictates even at extreme illogical assumptions, nanologix is extremely overvalued.
What would it take for nanologix, in the most extreme hyper-exuberant situation, to be valued at $0.07 per share? Let's look at the math:
Current share price: $0.072 pps
Industry Average PE: 58.8
Industry Average net margin: 15%
Shares Out.: 145,814,222
Assumptions:
PE: 100
Net Margin 25%
$0.072 / 100 = $0.00072 (EPS)
$0.00072 * 145,814,222 = $104,986 (Earnings)
$104,986 / 25% = $419,944 (Revenue)
So in order to justify a $0.072 pps, the company would require three things:
1. That fair value equals 100 PE
2. Net Margin is 1,000 basis points better than the industry average.
3. The company produces $420k per year in revenue.
Problems:
1. 100 PE isn't realistic for any company.
2. Net Margin isn't realistic due to he company's average annual expenses.
3. Point #2, company's average expenses are in excess of $1m per year which means revenue would have to produce $1.4m in revenue.
Commons sense dictates even at extreme illogical assumptions, nanologix is extremely overvalued.
Because of the dilutionary effect of issuing more shares for a recap.
Par is the goal.
You're exactly right.
I believe you're wrong, especially in regards to two more years. The GSE's don't even have one more year before they'll be illiquid if NWS continues which will cause a crash.
Exactly.
If you ran out of hotdogs, it wouldn't have crashed the entire economy. Get it?
Show us the math.
I don't believe it would. They paid for the warrants. Can't accuse someone of taking what they paid for.
It's definitely a positive step. However, it's nothing different than I've heard him say for the last two years. Primary difference is that it looks like he's going to stop the sweep regardless of others opinions. But, I wouldn't misconstrue his actions as a concern for the shareholders. His concern, as he's always expressed, is for the safety and soundness of the enterprises.
Trying to keep the businesses from failing doesn't mean he's looking out for the shareholders. The main subject is still the businesses.
Your dates make no sense to me. The 2016 omnibus stipulates the senior preferreds can't be sold, tendered, exchanged, or any other transaction, until January 1st 2018. That means conservatorship cannot end without congressional approval until that date. After that date, Mnuchin can end it by modifying the SPSPA. That's specifically why your dates, especially your pps predictions, make no sense to me.
You've pretty much nailed it.
The preferreds aren't "ultimately" related to market price because their value is a set amount. Par value is a contract that is more reliant on the equity value of the company than its return on invested capital / net income.
The Commons aren't related to market price, which is why the point to the valuation is to find fair value (i.e. PE).
That's the diluted count. They're warrants that were issued but haven't been exercised. Because the assumption is that they will be exercised, you have to account for them. You can also calculate a scenario without them to give you perspective.
Here's the process.
1. $12.31b NI x 14.62 PE = $179.97b Mkt cap
2. $179.97b - $19.13b pfd's = $160.84 mkt cap attributable to commons
3. $75b recap assumption
4.$75b / $160.84 = 46.63% weight of recap
5. 100% - 46.63% = 53.37% weight value of total shares
6. 5.893b current shares out / 53.37% = 11.04b total shares required
7. $160.84b / 11.04b = $14.57 pps valuation
Point out the section you're confused on.
The total par value of all preferred combined is $19.13 billion. That amount doesn't change unless they issue more preferred shares or call the shares.
$7 - $12 pps has always been my projection so I doubt betting against myself makes much sense.
When do you think they'll relist?
Same document said the conservatorship would be very temporary. 9 years isn't temporary. Tim Howard has a different perspective on whether the warrants will be exercised. So does Fairholme capital, Perry, Ackman, and Congress. The warrants will be exercised. I guarantee it.