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The news many consumers have been waiting for, Apple's iPhone carried by Verizon Wireless, will be announced Tuesday, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
http://technolog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/01/07/5787083-verizon-iphone-will-be-announced-tuesday-report
Here's a relevant TNA 15 min chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p70183499196&a=220032411
Down: 1015 (NYT), Weakness: dark candle, RSI 2 declining, Sto sell signal.
Up: 1315, Strength: light candle, RSI 2 rising, Sto buy signal.
I typically watch at least two charts on intraday trades; in this case the 15 and 60 min ones.
The intraday market turn started about 1315 (NYT). See a 15 min chart scaled down from the 60 min one.
The evidence suggests the turn was preceded by exhaustive selling as shown on the 60 min candlestick chart.
Earnings season starts Monday with AA reporting.
Those TNA 60 min candles at 1100 and 1200 (NYT) are pretty scary, but do they represent exhaustion?
The most recent candle, 1300, is favorable for a possible market bounce.
We shall see.
Here's TNA on a 60 min intraday chart I sometimes use:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p38125607659
A few things I keep in mind:
1) A flat, horizontal 20 SMA indicates the trend is sideways, I probably should step aside, not trade; however,
2) RSI 2 is a leading indicator off local lows or highs, and,
3) A 5,2 stochastic below 20 or above 80 (or close to those figures) typically indicates a trade setup or price action turn is near.
TNA backing off here. . .
I'll have a chart later today. Got to run now.
TNA priming to rise.
Consistent with my TNA intraday model. . .
Very good! May your kids get a great education!
Is TNA in process of building a lower high?
Futures have been rising since about 0800. . .TNA followed, too.
FAS gaining as financials lead S&P.
But the trouble is not all the things that happen in the next 8+ years for AAPL, and the market more generally, are likely to be good.
What if. . .?
Do you suppose this person is just practicing her/his acting?
Delete
What market conditions must occur for you to sell?
TNA: 60 min intraday chart trending Down from 1100 (NYT) today.
My guess is TNA is headed lower.
. . .as suggested by the 15 min chart.
This market move, including TNA, is long in the tooth and due for a pullback.
Let's see what the last half hour brings. And the open tomorrow.
CES opens tomorrow and may drive stocks higher for a few more days. If not, I would consider that a bad sign.
PS: Ron, your 15 min chart is very nice. Clean, sharp, and to the point. Clearly, a keeper.
Thank you.
Thank goodness you're still alive and able to write after that bite! You must have quick feet.
Perhaps some of us can learn from your experience.
Perhaps traders today are inclined to take small profits, rather than letting profits enlarge, because our ancestors, out hunting and gathering, learned to grab the rabbit or pick the small patch of berries, rather than skip the near stuff and go over the hill for maybe a deer or large berry patch.
Those that went over the hill risked giving up the near, good stuff and perhaps not finding much, other than maybe a hungry sabertooth cat. And they didn't become the ancestors of anyone.
For now, a link to a TNA 60 Renko chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p26988795954&a=219457004
PS: The time frame for the model is a 60 min chart.
I've been working on a combo of my short term intraday trend model and a Renko chart for TNA from mid October 2010 forward.
I have four trades:
Sell 14 October 1400 (NYT)
Buy 2 November 1300
S 9 November 1300
B 18 November 0930
This is a hybrid model so it doesn't follow strict Renko rules.
The number of AAPL long term holders who don't want to sell because of taxes is probably enormous.
Yet imagine taxes rising in the years ahead in an effort to deal with rising costs for running the country plus an effort to reduce the national debt. What does that look like?
ES (S&P emini futures) Up 17.5 presently!
Is this indicative of a top?
IWM:SPY - There's a little pitching up and down here, too:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89985360108
Here's retail compared to the S&P 500. Notice the volatility, agitation, and uncertainty reflected in price action mid April to early June of this year:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT:SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05102395419
Remember the flash crash occurred on 6 May 2010.
Impressive music application. . .if it's stable and reliable, it will do well.
Excellent competition for AAPL. And much needed.
Even if the hardware and OS software are basically OK, the competitor's device must still compete with iTunes and Apple's ecosystem. A very difficult order.
Why are back test and paper trading gains often so pristine vs the real life records of many traders / investors?
Prospect theory studies indicate traders / investors are inclined to take small profits but let losses grow in size (gambling, in the hope that money will eventually recover, to at least even) vs letting profits run and cutting losses promptly, and moving on.
Evolved human nature and emotions complicate producing optimal returns in real time vs what is found in back testing and often reported in paper trading.
Very nice trading!
Chart would be easier to read if buys and sells were in a table, and chart only contained buy, sell arrows, MAs, indicators, etc.
Maybe limit size of chart to 2 to 3 month periods, too, with enough charts to cover time from August to present. . .or something like that.
Just a suggestion. . .
The time is ripe to study the decline in the market that started in late April, early May of this year. What can we learn from that period?
The market is near YTD highs; I suspect you would rather maintain those gains than be caught, like a deer in the headlights, as the market corrects sometime in the weeks and months ahead:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35309718709
TNA looks quite overbought here. I'll be surprised if this bullish move does not show a respectable pullback soon.
TNA: Up about 1230 (NYT).
FAS intraday turned Up at the opening today.
TNA nearing Up.
"Change trade, Buy to Sell or Sell to Buy, when slope AND MACD directions coincide."
For example, when slope is continuing Down change trade direction when MACD changes to Down.
. . .a great gift for a sports oriented boy or girl!
This is similar to a model I've used.
Here's an example using the "AND" rule: Change trade, Buy to Sell or Sell to Buy, when slope AND MACD directions coincide.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97088996394&a=218617516
What are some other rules?