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CBP's 4th qtr margins & eps were down. However cashflow & future guidance were strong.
It just seems anything less than robust current results & China stocks sell-off.
I have been looking very closely @ both cbp & bspm at their current pps & think both are current good buys.
Crystal research came out with another report on hfgb however nothing new was in the report.
Thanks Harley,
WKBT filed for listing on NASDAQ Capitol Market on 6-22-2010 at that time WKBT felt they satisfied most of the listing requirements however the pps was still well below the $4.00 minimal pps.
Today they are starting to see the 1st glimps of $4.00.
It has been a strong move up from the private placement done at $2.40 not to long ago.
But with the kind of numbers WKBT expects to report for 2010 its still not up to a current p/e of 4 with 30-50% more growth expected from organic growth "only" in 2011.
WKBT filed for listing on NASDAQ Capitol Market on 6-22-2010
At that time wkbt believed that they satisfied most of the listing requirements of the application.
Of course they did not meet the minimal pps of $4.00 at that time.
However as of today the minimal pps of $4.00 is starting to be reached.
We are all seeing one side of the growth story & organic growth has been as good as it gets.
The other side of the growth equation acquisition growth has been astounding as well from the 1 acquisition that led to most of 2009 growth when eps went from $0.29 the year before to $0.62 entirely from the acquisition because the original TCM division contributed flat earning but increased R&D spending to develop new products.
In 2010 we are starting to see the payback for the increase in R&D spending & this will continue in 2011 as many new products are still being launched.
Once listed they plan to get some more acquisitions done & if that last acquisition is any indication of what to expect growth will be off the charts in 2011&12 as growth thru both organic & acqusitions mesh together.
I own 5k shares of jada bought with money I made trading jada in early 2010.
I will ride it down to $-0- rather than sell for the few hundred that my 5k would bring on the slight chance it is not a fraud.
However I have found that when mangement & or I/R refuse to answer investors & go completely silent the chance of it being a fraud greatly increase.
Some on the jada board keep mentioning averaging down,,,It would be my opinion that they see a shrink instead.
Just one old farts knowledge & opinion on the subject of jada a stock that should not be listed on the progressive board anymore until the true nature of this silence is learned.
regards,pappy
I have my original 5k shares bought from my winnings in jada early in 2009.
I think it foolish to buy more shares when management refuses to answer investors.
I have run across this situation in the China space before & a hefty percentage turned out to be frauds.
My present investment is down to a few hundred bucks so I will ride it down to $-0- rather than sell currently on the chance it may not be a fraud,however anyone willing to chase this thing on the way down without knowing 1st hand,"What the hell is going on needs to see a shrink,"imo
regards,pappy
SGLA is suppose to open a green hub sometime this year as a giant gather place for farmers to sell produce.
SGLA seems to need continued funding.oranges & bananas are two of there feature products.
I sold when they started restating earnings & like snbp was lucky to not lose any money.
Now you tell me how I can keep from losing money on jada another of my low priced crap-shoots.lol
I suggest wkbt.ob be added to the index as the forecast growth is as good as it gets.
$3.34+$0.09 wow this puts WKBT almost up to a forward p/e of 3 & on a t/a basis its presently overbought.
This says loads for current lack of interest in China stocks.
However I believe this amigo is for real & is as great a buy under $5 as investors are likely to find in 2011.
Disclosure I am exiting my position in snbp today as I don't want excuses only results from my stocks.
I feel lucky to have come out even after seeing this report.
I didn't like that they didn't tell investors they would close up shop for two months.
Sorry to have mention snbp on this board recently.
Just goes to show how fast things can change in this space.
regards,pappy
Good luck to those that stay & sorry for the downdraft as I exit my position.
The report didn't make me want to camp here any longer.
regards,pappy
As you know a lot has happened with wkbt since my last post.
$77.8M revenue with earnings of $31.2M or $1.04 eps is now expected to be reported for 2010.
With the mid-point of expected organic growth for 2011 putting revenue around $109M & eps @$1.45.
In spite this kinda growth the stock has a p/e ratio of 3 & a forward p/e ratio of 2 when one considers that acquisition growth is the other half of planned growth.
With the stock expected to be listed in about 90 days institutions may become interested in a company with this kind of growth & a excellant balance sheet.
A lot of investors have said they don't like Chinese pharm. companies but there's no denying the future growth of this industry.
Besides wkbt nuin is also one of my favorites.
Both should be listed this year & both should continue their outstanding growth & at some point the market should give some recognition to the fine growth these two companies are achieving.
I feel your pain.
CKGT was by far my biggest loser over the last year & I held my shares expecting better sharevalue decisions by management.
Today CKGT is grossly undervalue with excellant growth ahead but nobody seems to care.
Today wkbt another amigo for 2011 gave preliminary 2010 results of $77.8M revenue & earnings of $32.2M or $1.04 eps.
They also expect 30-50% revenue growth in 2011 with 60% gross margins.
The pps of wkbt jumped all the way up to a pps of just over 3xcurrent eps before closing well below its high for the day.
Some stocks in our space are moving up while others like wkbt & ckgt barely move on outstanding forward guidance.
I think the wasteful use of shares to raise pitiful little money has done ckgt in until they prove they will do better in the future.
Those shares are now overhanging the market at a time of little investor interest.
They have a strong R&D capability & investment to promote a strong pipeline with a target of 4 new products released yearly.
For 2011 at least 2 groundbreaking products;
1] anti-cancer drug designed to treat radiation sickness & angiocardiopathy.
2]specialized muchroom formulation that helps prevent & treat cardiovascular disease.
Currently the company reinvests 10% of its sales in R&D & intends to increase R&D investment as the company grows.
Visit the company website & view the presentation & you will see a large number of products they are working on.
Manufactoring scalable up to $107M so they won't need to add capacity until late 2012.
Before then I expect them to expand via acquistion.
With listing comes analyst coverage & institutional interest & I believe with the growth wkbt has planned they will be interested.
"wkbt"
They did issue new guindance,,,2010 revenue of $77.8M & earnings of $31.2M or $1.04eps on a preliminary basis.
Those numbers are mind-boggling,,,More in line with 2011 expected results.
For 2011 they now say revenue gains of 30-50% with margins increasing to 60% due to the impact of new products.
4th qtr eps must have been around $0.60 giving wkbt a runrate of $2.40 going into 2011.
They have at least 2 ground breaking products scheduled for launch in 2011.
1] anti-cancer drug designed to treat radiation sickness & angiocardiopathy.
2] specialized mushroom formulation that helps prevent & treat cardiovascular disease.
With listing on the near horizon should come analyst coverage.
What kind of pps target will they assign to wkbt.
Things are looking up for this amigo for 2011.
Priliminary guidance for 2010 is $77.8M in revenue & $31.2M or $1.04 eps.
They also mentioned 2011 revenue gains of 30-50% & gross margins increasing to 60%.
The increase in revenue & margins from new products is mind-boggling.
With 4th qtr earnings giving eps a runrate over $2.00 heading into 2011 we can expect 2011 eps of somewhere between $1.50-$2.40.
Maybe Larry Isen with his target pps of $9-$15 in 18-24 months was not so far fetched.
He claims to have done on the ground research but did he really have wind that such mind blowing numbers were about to be reported.
Lets see how these numbers are received in todays trading,wow.
Thanks, I alway take these analyst & guru forecasts as just another guys opinion when not knowing what inspires him to do the write-up.
However wkbt stock has been strong lately in spite doing a pp priced @$2.40.
Maybe his write-up is adding to the wkbt following as I also noticed that volume for this once dormant stock has been increasing of late.
WKBT has showed increased growth trends of late & provided excellant forward guidance.
I had been a buyer @ the pp price of $2.40 filling my position.
I am now waiting for WKBT to produce on the guidance they provided.
Again thanks for the heads up on Larry Isen
Larry Isen editor of "Emerging China Stocks"has issued a 18 page report on WKBT his number #1 China biotech stock for 2011 with a pps target of $9-$15 in 18-24 months.
In order to get his #2-3 picks you must subscribe to his newsletter.
He mentions the increasing R&D budget that has 10 products in various stages of development with 3 expected in 2011 along with potential acquisitions as basis for continued strong growth.
He claims to do on the ground research with follow-up interviews with senior management.
He also claims to follow Benjamin Graham/Warren Buffett style investment principles.
Just received a 18 page copy of
"Larry Isen's Conservative Investor Alert"
It features WKBT his #1 China Biotech stock for 2011.
He claims to have done on the ground research on WKBT & was not compensated for his report although he hopes to add subscribers for his newsletter. OTC Journal on Emerging China STOCKS.
In order to get his number 2 & 3 recommendations you have to subscribe.
He mentions the strong organic growth with growing R&D developing many new products + growth thru acquisitions as the basis for continued growth + expected listing this year.
He has a 18-24 month target pps of $9-$15 on WKBT.
This will be fiscal yearend 2010 report which should be reported in about 60 days.
I am projecting revenue of $24mil with eps of $0.83 based on 16.5mil shares outstanding.
Cig revenue in 4th qtr of $1.2mil is about 10% of revenue.
In 2011 that revenue percentage is expected to double once more to 20%.
Keep in mind overall product revenue should increase in 2011 so 20% of total revenue will be huge for this "high' margined product.
The cashflow in 2011 should make CKGT'S CASH POSITION SOUND ONCE MORE,,,But please we don't need to spend such a large percentage of cash on patents this year.
The current pps is still trying to overcome managements 2010 shortterm stupidity.
Looks like we have a sellar willing to sell under the bid.
With the bid @$0.68 & ask@$0.71 this sellar was willing to take $0.65 in order to sell a 24,345 share block of lightly traded hfgb stock today.
This would seem to be one of the many Chinese merchants that got shares as payment instead of cash from hfgb.
I have seen no news,however UTA has been under strong accumulation in spite the continued high short position.
The p/e ratio got completely out of tune with the current accerating growth trend.
My target pps is $12+ at that pps UTA would still only be back to a p/e of about 8 & I believe the accelerating growth trend will continue in 2011 as they integrate the package tour acquisitions causing margins to increase.
IMO the combination of savy insider buys,strong individual & institutional buys & a high short position adds to a expanding p/e ratio going forward into strong eps growth that should beat yahoo guidance numbers.
Remember earnings are due Jan. 15th.
Hope this buying means positive news.
Harleyman,
As i said management ability is the main reason I am holding SNBP.
And even though they had a heavy amount of dilution eps went from -$0.03 to +$0.03 last year.
It take money to ready new drugs for market so further dilution can't be ruled out.
SNBP is now cashflow positive & has been partnering with others to bring some of their promising drugs to bear fruit so I believe further dilution will be kept under control.
Here is my low pps pick in the China space,,,,snbp.ob
The CEO Mr. Huang quit his job as head of Bayer research center to move back to China & start snbp.ob.
They have a flagship muscle relaxer drug that has 70% of the China market & is expected to be on the World markets including the U.S. soon.
They have a strong pipeline of products that should start adding to revenue in 2011& beyond.
eps went from -0.03 to + 0.03 last year & are projected at 0.05 this year & 0.07 next year in spite a large amount of dilution last year.
Some dd articles can be found on the snbp ihub board.
The current pps is $0.29...My main reason for owning snbp is the talents of the management team.
Although not one of my 5 amigos for 2011 snbp is my largest position in number of shares owned.
I hope that selected Chinese stocks will regain favor over the next 12 months.
I like how the growth & technicals of nuin are setting up & have set a pps target of $8.30 by early 2012. jmo
$3.52 unchanged with 18,655 shares traded.
All shares were traded at the ask.
I have been buying the dips but the dips are getting fewer & farther between.
I sold my shares in srry a long time ago.
I don't believe in managements ability to get the job done.
Crystal paid research report
http://www.crystalequityresearch.com/docs/HFGBInitialFocusReport-12-20-10.pdf
NUIN opened its 1st specialty store close to corporate headquarters & in a neighborhood that allows NUIN to cator to middle-to-upper class consumers.
More specialty stores are expected to be opened at a later time so lets see how this test store goes as they try to increase exposer to middle & upper class consumers.
A management team with a solid plan if you ask me.
"Oh then I guess this will be your last 12 months as a investor here..."
Actually my timeline is 6 months.
I believe drinks is a bonified growth driver with good margins.
I believe cigarettes growth will tapor off after a few years as people that smoke are hooked on nicotine not cactus.
I believe animal feeds is a bonified growth drive with lower margins.
They need another growth driver for the longerterm which I have long believed would be personnel care & hygiene products.
Personnel care & hygiene products have very good margins & should be introduce to supplement longterm growth.
Cactus cigarettes vs personnel care & hygiene I have made my choice & its about time management woke up & decided to launch a product with substained longterm growth & good margins other than drinks.
I am positive on ckgt because they not only have a product the consumer needs to stenghten the immune system.
They are showing solid growth without having launched their main product line.imo
I agree $0.75 in 2011 allows for a huge increase in cigarette revenue & continued strong gains from drinks & to a lessor extent animal feeds which has relatively poor margins.
It also allows for at least 3 personnel care products being launched by mid-year.
If all of the above don't come to past then a p/e of 4 or 5 or less than $3 would probably be a more logical outcome.
With the new distribution agreements from last year I am very puzzled as to why they continue to hesitate launching some of the many products yet to be introduced.
If they don't launch personnel care products by mid 2011 I will no longer be a ckgt investor as I have been waiting since 2008 choicing instead to buy more nuin.ob a company with forward thinking management & a product that also helps the immune system.
"Any price predictions on ckgt.ob for yearend?"
I think ckgt should reach a p/e of 5 or $3.75 in 2011 if management does a better job of managing the bottom line.
CKGT has shown strong relative strengh to finish out 2010 a good sign that things might be much better in 2011.
In fact my overall portfolio of small-cap Chinese stocks finished the day very strong the last two days after starting the day slow.
It maybe to early to tell but still this maybe a sign that money is starting to flow back into our space.
When I look at CKGT & its current depressed pps as compared to it future growth outlook I see a stock that should regain its former highs early on in 2011 as revenue continues strong & as margins improve to feed the bottom line.
Lets have no more $7M patend buys or buying of manufactoring facilties before cash from cashflow has a chance to replenish to the point that personnel care & hygiene products have a chance to join the mix.
They are starting to outsource more & more & with the arsenal of products yet to be introduced I see that as a good sign.
northernlights its a pleasant sight seeing you on this board.
I had not looked at enhd but now that you mentioned buying I will take a look.
Steve,
Although I don't currently hold bspm prefering both wkbt & hfgb in the pharm arena.
I am not so sure trading out of bspm ahead of what should be a excellant 4th qtr is the best thing to do.
I have some balance sheet & other issues with ltus that have me not buying that one.
As for ckgt I continue to believe 2011 will be a much better year for them however in that space nuin seems to have a better balance sheet to go with excellant management that has a better handle on present & future growth.
This is all just one old farts opinion & ltus could be a big winner in 2011 even though I won't be aboard.
Concerning ckgt it was no doubt underperformer in a underperforming group of stocks.
Management got themselves into a cash crunch & made some dilutive cash raising decisions that had a bad effect on the pps.
However as is often the case underperformer in a given year become over performers in the oncoming year.
I have always liked to buy the big revenue growers cheap before that revenue really starts to hit the bottom line.
CKGT will have its 1st 10M+ revenue qtr in the 4th qtr with revenue forecast of $12M+
And as cashflow replaces the cash used for patents & cigarette manufactoring facilities in 2010.
This should allow for continued revenue growth in health drinks cigarettes & hogfeed thruout 2011 with increasing margins that will feed the bottom line.
And if they finally find a way to introduce some of their many health care products that will allow margins to expand even more.
If they did all this starting early in 2011 eps could approach $1,,,however CKGT management has alway proceeded with caution in releasing new products [other than cigarettes]so 2011 eps will probably be closer to $0.75.
Another if eps of $0.75 the pps should return to the $3.00 $3.50 range in 2011.
I have to leave for my xmas dinner down on the river here in Parkville,Mo. with wife a son & his wife.
So I hope everyone enjoys their dinner as well as I eating seafood & crablegs one of my favorites.
Traderfan,
This seems to be something we both agree on.
May I wish you & you'res & everyone a merry xmas
Although my positive longterm view of ckgt was somewhat tempered in 2010 due to a number of moves by management that I can't say I approved of.
For 2011 I see that longterm positive view returning as cashflow should start to replenish the cash drain in 2010 that led to many poor management moves.
"It remains for me to see if they are getting A/R under control."
Even so at its current distressed pps ckgt with all its promising products should be able to return to better margins & net profits in 2011 & hopefully a higher pps.
CKGT was the last of my 5 amigos picks for 2011 because management needs to improve on their performance of 2010 but still made my list since management is bright enough to correct on the poor path they took for growth in 2010.
May I wish all a merry xmas & prosperous New year.
pappy