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Actually, the prices paid increased "at a slower rate" than September:
Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in October for the fifth consecutive month, but at a slower rate of increase than in September. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for October is 58.7 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the 60.1 percent registered for September. In October, the percentage of members reporting higher prices decreased 4 percentage points to 19 percent from 23 percent in September, the proportion indicating no change rose 4 percentage points to 74 percent, and the number who noted lower prices remained at 7 percent for the third consecutive month.
The industries reporting the highest rates of increase in prices paid in October are: Mining; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Entertainment; and Retail Trade. No industry reported price decreases in October.
Prices % Higher % Same % Lower Index
October 2003 19 74 7 58.7
September 2003 23 70 7 60.1
August 2003 16 77 7 55.7
July 2003 14 73 13 50.6
Notice price index went down a few points from September indicating little pricing power.
Now that these are out of the way, I am leary of the Initial Claims tomorrow and more importantly the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. I believe both of these numbers could UNDERDELIVER.
After the Challenger numbers of 170K jobs lost in October and just the daily announcements of job cuts, we could be set up for a fall on the employment numbers in the next couple of days.
Maine, could you do me a favor and Ask Jeeves if I should cover my Priceline short? {g}
Not sure why you would ignore them? Do you have statistics as to why they should be ignored vs. "your gut feel?"
They seemed to have been a precursor for where we are ending up today.
When was the last time we saw a 6 point change in SP futures less than 2 hours after the close? Any sudden change merits awareness it seems.
Any idea why the SP futes are down about 6 points from the close? Anyone? Mutual fund probe expansion?
SP 500 closed at 1050.71 on Friday.
SP Futes now sitting at 1053.20, 2.5 points higher than Friday.
SP 500 closed today at 1059.02, almost 6 points higher than where the futes are now.
I still haven't seen a reason for the drop in futes but have to believe it is related to the mutual fund scandals.
Good to have your comments again, especially in the chip and equipment areas. Keep 'em comin'!
Than any idea why the sp futes are down 4 points from the close?
SP Futes really 4 points off of the close? This because of the Putnam situation? NAS futes 3 points off the close?
For clarification are you saying a local low around expiry contained above 1842 is still on or there is a "change in the short term scenario?"
Thx!
Is the Equity p/c your biggest indicator of today being the st top? If not, what indicators are pointing you to a pullback - I believe you mention 100 point or so - no worse than 1842?
Funny getting that report and this comment on the same day:
Intel CEO..."Demand of businesses in the United States, in our biggest market, shows no signs of recovery," Barrett said in Sunday's interview.
Wahz, for some reason my posts were limited to 3 because I was an "unverified" user whatever that means so I had to wait until now to reset the counter, otherwise would have commented earlier.
Anyway, I want to commend your honesty and clarity in your post. I had a feeling the bear was a bit nasty for you but certainly do appreciate the forthright detail.
Fed, c'mon with this now. Someone rubbed you the wrong way yesterday and many of us showed you the support you deserve. You'd be the first to say that one bad apple shouldn't spoil the pie so just shake it off like we all do and get back to your old self.
That's always the problem with message boards - people sometimes say things they would never say face to face.
Wahz, seems you've been fairly accurate since this bull run for the last year and pounding the table on going long. Congrats on a ballsy call.
Have you always been very bullish and did you get hurt in the declines from NAS 5000 or have you played the crash as effectively as well?
More detail / insight the better.
Thanks.
So no historical patterns that have any predictive value for the next trading day? Is that kind of the bottom line?
What does this tell you Train? I am shocked we ended red today after that GDP number.
Now I'm missing something. Wasn't that just a couple point move off the lows? Is that significant?
By the way your Futes updates are always appreciated and you often include critical support resistance levels I guess from your P&F work. I guess no old ladies today.
Say it isn't SO-HU !
No I don't, not yet; but it seems you do quite successfully so any real time education seems would be appreciated by not just me.
Fully aware of the "old ladies" term and your use of it. Just let me know exactly if and when you pull the trigger on any trades related to it today if that's OK. Again, I don't expect you to post your trades everyday like Zeev does, just hoping we can try your methodology real time here and see what happens.
Probably because you had the dreaded "666" post
Except for my NTES short, correct Cannabis?
High expectations for the PMI - it better be stellar or you might see a selloff.
Jerry, the old ladies could be another perfect example of how to play the market reaction. Could you actually post real time today when you are going long or short due to the old ladies? I won't ask this everyday but let's have fun and use a real live example. Of course if you don't hold the trades overnight let us know when you take them off today as well.
The key I'm trying to get at here is exactly when are you pulling the trigger on the trades. Obviously catching the top or bottom is not nearly as important as getting the right direction.
Thanks.
OK, thanks for the explanation.
Thanks, so to make sure I have this right, how would you analyze this morning's GDP number which was obviously good? How do you determine if the news will be bought or sold?
Did you foresee the gap and crap today? And did the eco numbers give you any idea a V may be in play today?
Do you have any decent rules for determining market action from the eco numbers and if so, please explain in a little more detail - a couple examples would be great if you have the time.
I ask because I have really not been able to determine market action from the eco numbers. Sometimes we get great news and it's sold and sometimes we get horrible news and it's bought.
Jerry, haven't I seen you post that all these numbers are just noise anyway and you should "ignore the noise?"
Can you clarify what you believe is noise and what isn't noise? Seems you mention eco numbers positively in one breath and than say they mean nothing in another breath. Help me sort out my confusion.
Thx.
What employment number do we have tomorrow Jerry? Are you thinking of nonfarm payrolls which is next Friday?
Have you asked jeeves if you should cover yet again?
What price are you looking to cover NTES?
Bear, why are the GDP numbers fabricated in your opinion?
I think we're overbloated a bit here in the markets myself but haven't analyzed GDP in the past so looking for an education.
A few most important bullets would be great.
Thanks.
The NTES Ballad (Sung to KC "Get Down Tonight")
-----------------------------------------------
Do a little dance,
Make a little love (but don't show it via SMS)
Go down tonight!
Go down tonight!
Fed, don't let some clown wannabee board policeman scare you off the board. Your input is appreciated and your sense of humor really adds to this board. How that could offend anyone or cause people to be belligerent is beyond me.
Price / Sales of NTES / SINA / SOHU are bloated. Forget about P/E - price / sales is the problem and as soon as there is any hint of slowing like NTES today, you can have a big fall and never recover.
Yesterday's Business 2.0 arrived yesterday and NTES was one of the "10 stocks to sell" along with JNPR and other high fliers.
I used to think Business 2.0 was garbage but it's getting a little better these days so maybe they will have something with this recommendation.
Looks like SOHU earnings are out:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031023/nyth129_1.html
Cursory look seems to be a match on REV, a big miss on EPS with a one time charge, and lowering rev guidance for Q4 and a range of Q4 EPS of $.24 - .28 when consensus is $.27.
Seems tough to get any more upside out of this stock. Anyone have any more detailed analysis?
I have great respect for Vietnam vets bethere but unfortunately not much for you as you are clearly a bigot thinking your fighting entitles you to call people "slant eye" on a public thread.
Remember who dropped the bomb on Japan and wiped out more people than ever in a single bombing - your good old USA.
If you must use these words you should do it in private with others like yourself that appreciate it.
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you don't know the term "slant eye" is a degrading term to the Asian race. Even Oriental is not considered proper today.
If you are concerned about possibly offending someone of the Asian persuasion, you may consider removing the term "slant eye" from the vocabulary.
If it was intentional, this is not the thread that would get too much of a laugh out of it.
And the VBG doesn't give a free pass on this comment.
Did NVLS just warn on revenue for Q4? They have so many numbers, I'm not sure what's comparable but it looks like a warning.
4:55PM Novellus guides for Q4 (NVLS) 37.42 +0.47: -- Update -- On call, says it expects bookings of $230-245 mln in Q4 with best estimate at $235 mln; shipments between $210-225 mln with best estimate at $218 mln; SAB 101 revenues between $210-220 mln with best estimate at $214 mln; and EPS between $0.02-0.07 with best estimate at $0.05... Reuters Research consensus estimates are for EPS of $0.05 and revenue of $242.8 mln
Zeev,
I think the INTC earnings were decent but fail to see the stock take off from here. Here are some thoughts:
- $7.8B vs. $7.72B (not exactly crushing the revenue number but a little better nonetheless).
- .25 vs .23 EPS. Decent numbers.
- CAPEX changed from $3.5-$3.9B range to $3.6M - $3.7B range. This is a negative for the market - many expected them to raise CAPEX.
- Q4 guidance of $8.1 - $8.7B - expectations were already $8.3B so this seems to be right in line, maybe a higher upside.
- Q4 margins of 60% (sounds like they're keeping their expenses way down and squeezing suppliers who probably have no pricing power but this is nonetheless a positive for INTC but maybe not for the market)
- Biggest negative is the stock has risen over 50% already from July when they started raising their outlook.
Seriously, I'm trying to look at this from a balanced perspective. I have never seen as much bullishness in the press and on this thread as I see today which always calls for caution.