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Subprime mortgage money alas money heaven as well.
S&P 1425 going to be hard to hold after stuttering fool on squak box this morning.
My first impression was Derek Jacobi performance in I Caludius. How apropos for the current state of affairs we are in now
For all those missed it Paulson was on.
PANL is the foreever unprofitable OLED patent play stock.
FNM & FRE getting hit hard. FED to the rescue only few % points decline away. I wouldn't be getting super bearish. Biotech seems pretty safe today and new money still comes in.
BIDU CFO dies in accident. Is the unshortable shortable now.
My sister has lived in an Century old mansion in Atlanta for about 10 years putting a lot of money into it convinced that values in the neightborhood were only going to go up and away.
As of last year, she was totally convinced that her home was worth a whole lot of money based upon the fraudulent comp sales in the neighborhood. She listed it last year as a lofty value and did not get a single offer
I talked to her recently and she is critically aware how much prices have come down and has taken the house of the market.
Merry Christmas everyone
Nice call on move down. U still bearish for Monday
S&P unchanged. All I see is extremely strong short squeeze on financials for the umpteenth time in last 2 weeks.
AIG FRN FRE
Hard to time this market next move.
If anyone was going to flame me over my post, I was going to reply simply:
Only the the little people don't get 11% return on their asset backed bonds.
I actuallty got caught with a tiny long position on MBI today.
I think we are in good chance to get some more Santa claus rally appreciation in non financials until valuations get pretty stupid.
Iran and Iraq not adminisitrations primary focus IMO.
After 5 years of war mongering and associated war profiteering, the administrations desire on middle east war is slowing ebbing.
In its place IMO, we are getting the starting the picking of the carcass of GSEs, FNM & FRE, by the brokerages firms that gave us CDO and SIVs.
Reading from this AP newsclip it looking like FNM preferred stock is not convertible into common and buyers of it are just looking for the yield and and whatever assets that back the bonds if they have to seek some sort of government supported bailout or receivership that Englands's Northern Rock may be entering into.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071205/fannie_mae_capital.html?.v=5
The special stock sale "will provide the company with additional capital to conservatively manage increased risk in the housing and credit markets, help meet its mission of providing affordability, liquidity and stability, and free up capital to pursue emerging growth opportunities," Fannie Mae said in a statement.
The company said it expects the continuing turmoil in the housing and credit markets and anticipated further declines in home prices to "negatively affect" its financial condition and results next year.
Fannie Mae shares, already down $1.07 or nearly 3 percent to close at $35.18 Tuesday, fell another 81 cents to $34.37 in extended trading after the company's announcement.
"Fannie Mae has a responsibility to serve the mortgage market in good times and in times like these," the company's president and CEO, Daniel Mudd, said in a statement. "The steps ... are designed to enable us to meet that responsibility with a comprehensive, conservative plan to serve the market and manage our capital. The market needs us to be there -- and we believe this plan will help us do that."
The entire $7 billion in preferred stock to be sold will not be convertible into common stock, Fannie Mae said. Converting stock into common stock dilutes the value of outstanding shares and could further depress stock prices.
Typically, preferred stock pays a higher dividend than common stock and carries a stronger claim on the assets of a company if it goes into bankruptcy.
BKX hit 98 Friday. It was not able to close gap with 50 day MA.
Do you the potential extent of next move down.
From SEP 99 to MAR 00, it was greed not fundamentals that drove the market higher behind the backdrop of the downside of Y2K calamity and misguided FED easing.
This time sub prime meltdown is the fear and FED is again providing all the liquidity for the equity market excesses.
Lookig at RIMM and FSLR trading recently, we got earmarks that we are in the top.
I talked to an AIG manager in IT department yesterday, and his first comment on his company was " I don't much of it's reported $1 T in assets as cash.
I an glad you brought up SEP 99 as a turn date. I posted back in July that June 07 was lining up close to SEP 99 just from sector rotation and tranisent short squezes in pricey tech stocks.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21679197
I remember SPX from SEP till the top moving 5% down then 10% in cycles that driven by large program trades. It was hard to be right all the time and I think I wised up a little.
If market is offset by 3 months IMO, We are about at equilvent calendar date of MAR 00. The long party may be nearing the end and the shorts may rule going forward.
I am keeping in mind, if you want to be long don't get greedy; if you want to be short be patient.
The adage in real estate is location, location, location.
What's so bad about California. Is it the inability to build large developments on basically arid undeveloped rural tracts of land in the hopes of quick appreciation.
In NJ, some areas are up in value others are down in value but on the average everything is bearable since we still have jobs.
Most new construction is still cape cod knockdowns or "flag lots" carved out of subdivided lots.
Absent is the mega builders who can't get bank financing to build developments.
BKX @ 97 is getting most of the money. I see 10 day MA hitting the 50 day MA near 100-101 which is not too far away.
Are you bullish enough to see it break through 50 day MA.
I would have to believe short chasing becomes less productive as time goes on.
I just don't think all the bad stuff is been factored in yet.
VIX is 22.8 today but looking back historically it is still below previous levels in times of crisis. It is hard to say the bottom is in.
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/pricecharts.aspx
I am not counting them out in any sense. You just have to expect some flight to safety into larger caps like in 2000 in next 3 months as economic expectations get revised downwards.
You just have to expect that the way DELL SHLD RIMM are going today more sectors will follow in 10-20% corrections.
Not all proceeds of selling non S&P stocks like are going back in market into financials.
I see some lowering of allocation in equities.
Financials sector movement just short term trading nothing that most mutual funds would commit to on for the long term yet IMO.
The defense of FRE FNM CFC et al means shorting wide sectors of tech sector.
This is 2000 all over again but the the financials were one step removed lending to Enron Worldcom in 2000
Now they are up to their eyeballs trying to defend themselves.
RIMM starting to trade like year 2000 not just a mild retrace.
The markets got that strange feel to it.
internets and solar sectors could be next to get jiggy
IF APPL and GOOG go negative I can't much more of a move to the upside since where is leadership for next move coming from.
Dollar and Oil going in right direction for once but that could be transient phenomenon.
I see vigorous defense of financial sector. Rotation form anything with profits for the year like Shanghai market and tech RIMM DELL are being put into big bet this week that selloff in financeials is overdone.
Large caps outside financials GE IBM MSFT still not participating.
It extremely hard to figure out where S&P will go since liquidity supplied to market by FED could chase any shorts in financials.
If someone could do a preferred in Contrywide @ $18 recently, C preferred @ $37 looks like a another sure bet. right
I wouldn't want to be short C.
Futures rallied 10-12 pts on this news.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071126/citigroup_abu_dhabi.html
Pricey fees on UVPIX
Total Expense Ratio: 1.50% 1.96%
Max 12b1 Fee: 0.00% N/A
Max Front End Sales Load: 0.00% 4.75%
Max Deferred Sales Load: 0.00% 1.23%
I bought some long calls on PXI today and will sell the short calls tomorrow to pay any premiums.
FNI
A chart only a short could love.
It has some Indian computer outsourcing stocks in it as well.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=FNI
PS GXC and PGJ have similar same large cap Chinese stocks in them.
I am looking at China index funds to take advantage of their coming decline.
So far I have seen FXI & FXP
Have you seen any others that I missed.
This seems to be master respository of data
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
Everyone eat your turkey today because one needs some measure of tyrosine based medication to deal with down market.
Agree that fear and panic haven't arrived.
Decline as been orderly averaging about 0.5-0.6% per day on average. In the absence of panic, market continues until next inflection point on on DEC 11 or 12??? when the FED meets
Idiot math means approx 10 trading days at this measured decline or 5-6% lower from here.
FED decision provides the starting point for rally that retraces some of the decline into option expiry on DEC 19th.
S&P futures about 1435 cash.
Not much to protend today's low was the bottom not just a excuse to chase the timid longs because the shorts stll think they are in control.
I closed my short calls DEC 45 this morning to free up some new postions so I am not only other side of your trades anymore.
I surely didn't see this decline otherwise I would have been more aggressive writing short calls.
EURO 1.48 greater grief
add LEH to brokerages under pressure.
S&P off only 5 pts what sectors are being rotating into.
Someone is pumping liquidity into market because market breath just doesn't look right
Majority of financials test 1997 lows looking back long term.
APPL breaking down; FCX going nowhere.
I am not too encouraged where we finish today
Nothing up today but basically APPL RIMM MSFT XOM.
Can you say narrow market
It is only a question of today or tomorrow so on 1/2 day market open on Friday everyone can do some bottom fishing on their day off if they are lucky.
Watch out below SPX going for new LODS
FED acts not via rate cut soon but somehing more technically savy that helps FNM & FRE.
I am not economist but I have been told a peanut eater. <g>
Too many freight trains to hell on retail, reit, financals to get bullish.
AIG VNO SHHD MTG MBI ABK C LEH MER
Profit taking on anything that went up this morning is dooming any support for 1425.
It is only a question when we crack 1400 and what FED does afterwards.
What is happening to FRE and FNM makes me think they will act very soon.
Their capital requirements are busted so FED or Congress will need to issue a fiat to save them now.
Market will come back a little.
BIDU looks like best retro 2000 internet short stock play.
S&P glug... glug... glug... as it goes down the drain.
It is hard not to see how longs get control to the upside unless shorts get too piggish.