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I think It would be more correct to say ex husband.
Ae
Please try to put some paragraphs in your large posts.
You have important stuff to say but I’ll be honest I skipped over a lot of it because there’s no paragraphs.
The brain works by looking at packets of information. A large dump of verbiage and it’s really hard to follow.
Nice.
Yes many other smart modelers have shown positive results as well as what my model has.
PFS
Here is the movie. I had to complete some edits and therefore needed to put it on as a new movie.All the data was the same.
Hello all.
I finally was able to correct the problems with the video editing. Please see the new movie with the corrected video edits. The data is exactly the same it’s just that the video has been corrected with some editing.
Thanks Doc for the kind words.
OK all I want you to know I had to take the video down on the survival because of an editing error that photonic showed me.
I will re-edit it tonight and submit another one tomorrow. Nothing changes with the data it was more of a video editing problem.
Trying to do these all the while holding your phone to capture the video can be difficult.
Absolutely that’s one of the joys Of doing these models, is by putting it out before the results I get to see how close I came once results are reported.
I like the idea of being able to see the future results potentially, with these models.
And none of this contains any insider info, just using readily available, publicly available data points.
I think I’ll be pretty darn close but of course, a model is never perfect. And there are assumptions With any model.
So it will be interesting to say the least.
Absolutely agree Senti any little change in a single or even several data points will have a negligible affect on the results.
Hey all I was finally able to complete my overall survival model using the translational medicine data set.
It turns out that the median survival was 26.1 months in the experiment arm and was 19.7 months in the control arm representing a significant statistical difference favoring the experimental arm.
Check out my new video.
I’m still working on my new overall survival model utilizing the translational medicine published curves.
This uses real DCVax data points. Many more data points then I had to work with with the PFS curves.
Working about two hours a night on this. It is much more difficult And complex, but it’s looking to be very interesting.
I’m hoping to get another video out this weekend. The Alpha usually keeps his timelines!!
Let’s hope that the company starts keeping their timelines as well.
Just to let the board know, I am in the process of creating a new model using the translational medicine Kaplan-Meier curve for all patients that had been published as well as the IMUC overall survival data.
This model should be the most accurate because it’s utilizing real DC VAX survival data that has been published.And this should be very enlightening.
It is quite a bit more work so for the pain staking portions, so much so that I have had to enlist help from my beautiful wife who has been helping me with the measuring.
Believe it or not it’s pretty hard to measure something with a magnifying glass and then write it down. Much easier just to read off the millimeter reading and have your wife write it down. fyi
Also in case you are new to this board and have not yet seen my previous movies. Please review my DC VAX model regarding PFS survival. Links noted below.
NWBO DCVax-L PFS MODEL REVIEW NUMBER TWO
Check out my second video
Druggie
I will be posting my second video on the PFS model in the morning. It’s right now been edited.
Also check out my first video regarding the PFS survival curve.
What makes you so sure that it’s a failed trial???
What DATA can you give us that will educate us on your analysis?
Probably going to work on it this weekend sometime. Depends on if I can get the grass cut or not. I need to update the statistics software to a program that runs as an add-on too eXcel.
I want to update it using the N For control and experimental arms, from the translational medicine article. I was using an outdated N and for the control and the experimental arm because my model pre-dated the translational medicine publication.
Cannot really Use the model past 36 months because it’s based upon the IMUC Control curve and essentially that control dataset has no data past 24 months. Because essentially everyone by that time according to their published curves had either a evented or censored out.
Therefore I don’t have any data points that I can use for the later time to base the model on. So anything modeled during the time would be essentially guessing.
That’s why this DCvax trial will be so interesting is they have incredible follow up; unheard of follow up.
Thanks float. My model was completed prior to that translational medicine article was published. And I had not carefully looked at the numbers in each of the groups from that analysis. Yes the model can be adjusted for this.
Float, would be able to do this but please provide me a reference for where it has been published that there are only 99 people in the control arm.
That escapes me.
Was that the entry ramp that Bosch gave a few years ago?
Basically because I don’t have the data for the 10% of people who did not receive the DCVax in the trial.
I use the IMUC DATA because it’s data was published and I have a curve, a survival curve and a progression free survival curve, that I can use to formulate the data required to complete a Kaplan-Meier curve for the DCVax trial.
So when you have a published survival Curve one can painstakingly look at it and determine when the curve ticks down that represents an events and by looking at the X axis of the survival curve, at that point it will give you the time of the event.
I’m going to be making another video that actually shows my XL spreadsheet which will clear up a lot of these questions.
One can do these models utilizing any database. I picked the IMUC one because I thought that was the closest in terms of eligibility requirements with the actual DC VAX trial.
I’ve even completed one comparing the STUPP trail but I had to add additional time in terms of progression free and overall survival time onto the STUPP trial to account for the fact that they had 17% of the patients that had biopsy only. And therefore it would under perform the DC vac’s trial because of worse entry prognostic factors of patients on the trail, based on eligibility entry requirements. So that Model was fraught with more assumptions That I felt made it less valuable.
Basically with these models you’re trying to see the future with live very limited available data points.
I have been getting a lot of questions on exactly how the modeling occurs.
I am in the process of making another video that will go through the XL spreadsheet which is used to generate the models.
I think that will clear up a lot of these type of questions.
The modeling was completed before the real numbers were known. So I had to utilize what was stated in the protocol where there was a 2 to 1 randomization in favor of the experimental arm. The modeling could easily be recomputed using the numbers you provide.
Check out the video regarding The progression free survival modeling that I completed a number of years ago.
I recently re-reviewed it and created this video. This is why I remain long in this stock.
I am going on the record that the top line will be a significantly positive result.
Yes with LP’s free give-a-way warrant extension I guess I should be thankful and I’m quite surprised, that she didn’t extend her warrants for 300 years. Why stop at only three years?
So I guess we have that to be thankful for.
Yes certainly is.
This is being done because whoever is buying into the next dilution probably has something in the purchase document that says their price will be the five or seven day average over a certain period of time.
Then NWBO management can say “well we sold it at the market! and the market set the price”.
All the while the buying Entities are manipulating the stock to keep it low during that 5 to 7 day average time. So that ultimately they pay much much less for their large dilution purchase.
And you call and talk to Di and they say well it was done at the market price! So therefore that makes it right.
Even though the market price is being manipulated by the buyer of the dilution.
Marz.
I did hear that there was conclusive evidence that the aircraft carrier’s infection got started by seamen!!!
So Umibi
If 95 million additional shares have been given The LP sweetheart Warrantee extension free deal, then who might I ask is going to Initiate a short squeeze.
Including LPs freebies, added now with these 95 million freebies, they’ve extended nearly 1/4 of the total outstanding Potential shares of the company.
Totally unbelievably wrong and unconscionable.
I’m getting angry enough because I know the science and I know the outcome of this study from my own independent calculations and Kaplan-Meier curve Analysis completed from publicly available information, and have known for quite some time now that the trial is going to be completely successful trial. Yet All the while getting screwed on the business side by a bunch of self dealing insider lawyers who are tweaking the financing side of this so that it’s virtually freaking impossible for retail to ever make anything out of this investment.
I might be getting angry enough to hire my own lawyers.
Because now all of these freebie extended warrants are covering any potential short positions, so there will be no need for anyone to do any squeezing.
So because of all of this warrant extension there never will be ever a short squeeze of any kind.Why would there be? They’ve extended warranties to anybody who would want to squeeze.
Wow can they do a deal that is any worse for retail shareholders Or to the company? The company is a loser with this stupid free warrant deal, because the company does not get the income that paying for extending warrants would have provided the company.
I Cannot imagine they possibly could have done a more unfair deal for retail shareholders and in fact to the company itself.
Certainly they have not lived up to the fiduciary responsibilities that they have to all of us and to the company.
All of those warrants should have expired worthless. Then maybe we would’ve had a short squeeze.
Scotty
Correction
Linda keeps paying herself 500k + bonus + Essentially free 3 year warrant extension of 29 million shares.
Agree. You say it better than I. I suspect we will not get any explanations from the company. Starting to look like Scotty might be correct.
Senti.
Your analysis however fails to recognize that the one person who controls the price of the stock in the short term and in the long term is LP.
So she could for sure make the stock not spike or be valuable during her six month Non-exercise time. When she cannot exercise her options.
How do you say? Anytime there’s a little spike in the stock price she will just do a dilution at well below the market value and well below the price.
It’s not like you or I gave up an option to sell our stock during the six Month. In time. Oh no this is CEO LP who absolutely knows all of the details and has insider knowledge and has the ability to that will dilute the stock to keep the price down.
Hence she’s “giving up” something that she has Absolute total control of therefore the value “consideration” of her giving up this six months time, when she cannot exercise, is not very much.
Especially when you consider she gets A very valuable full 2 1/2 years after the six months in time value for her warrants.
It seems that you will defend LP at any cost no matter how egregious the items and the things that she does. This being probably the newest and most poignant example.
I just hope that she hasn’t done this for all of the warrant holders there by really taking it to us long-suffering retail long’s.
Kam FYI there is no ASCO this year
One thing I did like in the voting was that the most votes received was for the 1 year review of executive pay.
I think that the BOD wanted this to be 3 years. So I think alot of us independant shareholders, like myself voted against the BOD on that one. I think it shows the displeasure of the shareholders with the management.
TIMELINE GIVEN
Please review my prior post from 3-5-2020:
Alot of people jumped all over me when I posted that post and some even called DI and had him say that I misinterpreted what he was saying.
Turns out I was interpreting what he was saying perfectly.
Look at post 278215
Here is a quote from the post
"
Furthermore he (DI) did make an attempt during the call, to further kick the can down to road, and said we may have to wait until mid May for any significant announcements. When he had indicated this, I kind of jumped on him and called BS to this, stating that look you hyped the meeting up so much that to kick the can even a couple 2-6 weeks at the meeting and just say the normal cliché's of ‘shortly, pedal to the metal, imminent, ect ect’ is not going to cut it for the retail shareholders or myself, especially after the PR announcing that the meeting would be ‘interesting’.
At any rate, bottom line, I got thinking about it and likely I suspect what is going to happen is that the meeting will probably just give us a timeline.
Perhaps they will say we are going to lock the data at this date and or top line will be revealed at .... But now I do not expect any actual earth shattering news at the meeting.
But I do think (hope) we will get guidance on where they are at, which indeed likely for all of this could be interesting or very interesting"
Just want to defend my Credibility.
Also for the record, It will not be 2 weeks for the independent statisticians to run the data . . . Try at least a month or two... Have any of you ever seen a stats person do anything quickly??
So in reality when Linda says end of June to early July what she may really mean is Sept or Oct to be presented for SNO in November.
Umibe
I totally agree with your analysis regarding the value of Mr. Black on the board.
I would take it however a step further. Mr. Black gives the company something that the company sorely needs and does not have at all.
Credibility.
I remember speaking to Mr. Black at ASCO 2019 and the main point he made was that he would not be involved in NWBO if it was not legitimate. Furthermore he indicated that he had total faith in LP. In fact, he went further and stated that this company would not exist and would have become bankrupt many years ago had it not been for LP at the helm.
Sometimes I think all of us feel perhaps that LP May not act in a way that is positive to shareholders or may in fact even be in a conflict of interest.
Mr. Black had total confidence in LP.
And knowing this has helped me get through these dark times, feel a little better. Either you believe and trust in management or you don’t.
If you don’t believe in the management then certainly you should sell.
3,6,11,16, 20
Thanks nice information
Skits
Regarding your comment
“I'm not saying they'll go to the last day, but they could certainly need to issue the Proxy for the meeting well before the report is out.”
I can guarantee you they won’t put anything out until they absolutely have to. They have never done anything on time or anything except for the very last moment possible and only then when they were completely forced to do something.
Thanks reg. Good advice yes done. Fortunately no one in our sphere of contacts has become ill. That’s probably because we live in the country and are essentially quarantined by our lifestyle. We don’t get out much. But the kids can be carriers. That’s why I wanted to get an antibody test.
I’m using photonic as my control as I sneezed and coughed on him a couple times and he didn’t get anything! Just joking did not do this.
Thanks follower. Very good info.
I feel your pain flip. We all feel your pain.You’re not being sarcastic are you? Ha
Let’s hope that it really is truly interesting and or very interesting!
Thanks Reg hopefully I will see you there at the ASM as well.