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I don't agree with the logic in this case for APDN mostly because I'm already fully vested. My point is be a little more respectful. There is some logic to the strategy of buying when a stock should tank on apparent bad news but instead has no change.
I didn't do it but the logic to the strategy is very clear. In the surface to us outside investors, it appears the quarter was terrible and the stock should be down huge. The fact that it's not down huge means insiders or those more savvy think the quarter was better. They know better. They are keeping the stock up. So must be good enough to buy more.
That's the clear logic and strategy and you are welcome not to follow the strategy but to disparage the strategy the way you did there is not fair. There is clear logic to it which may just be right.
The only way they could legally say yesterday that they have enough for 12 months is they are accepting a ton of that accounts receivable to come in over the next 6 months. So some hope there I guess. Otherwise they are lying about the 12 month runway.
That's a bit misleading there SOL. The deferred revenue came from sales in prior quarters so they probably do have "sales" in this quarter but the revenue will be deferred to a future quarter.
Between cotton, leather, polyester, and car marking I was expecting at least $1.5M. Something doesn't add up
I thought we were doing $1M a year marking cars? That should be $250k this past quarter marking cars yet no mention at all. Verticals just mysteriously disappear with this company without a mention and even the analyst doesn't ask. I've seen this time and time again with APDN. Some vertical seems to be growing and then no more talk. What happened to those $70 home marking kits?
9 looks pretty good but who has faith in this management anymore to grow this PROFITABLY without losing current business? Gov went down then cotton came in. Maybe we lose cotton as some of these pilots convert but whatever happens who has faith it can be done profitably?
On the plus side, pull out a long term revenue chart on this company and you'll notice we are still trending up if this year comes in over $4M. The curve would have looked nicer if they didn't falsify 2015 revenue. Put a chunk of that in 2016 and things would look much better.
every other dilution came within a few weeks or months after they said they have 12+ months of cash left.
companies never wait for 1 or 0 months left to raise. They always do it when they are 12 months out
correction - it's 9 PRE-commercial contracts. They are paying for the costs of these pilots but doesn't seem that counts as revenue. Yeah, it's a huge increase in the # of pilots. Good for them. But why on earth we need all these pilots? I thought we have a commercial product. It works for cotton! If we have to do 6 month pilots every time before bringing someone on, then this isn't a profitable and scalable business. I think they are just bad salesmen. They need to say LOOK WE HAVE A PRODUCT THAT WORKS. YOU WANNA TRY US? BUY IT. DOESN"T WORK OUT FOR YOU? THEN DON"T CONTINUE
STOP WITH THESE DAMN PILOTS
Analyst Q&A
Brian Maxim Group
Q: what's the cash collection cycle for partners outside of Louis Dreyfus?
A: [blah blah blah blah blah blah blah]
Q: BB&B - how much old inventory remains?
A: [blah blah blah blah blah blah blah - empirical evidence wamsutta product 3 times more since a few weeks ago in a store in NJ]
Q: Inventory/Seasonal issues... is DNA depleted?
A: mostly depleted. still some excess inventory - but less than last year
Q: So if DNA is depleted, can you tell us current demand?
A: [blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah - "hearing optimistic things" blah blah]
Q: Prospects near-term in new government contracts?
A: DLA renewed and strong, also strong with OSD, and MDA. Frequent contact with other agencies. "We are included in many of their program suggestions" <-- BS blah blah blah.
Q: is a feasibility study a pilot and how long do they last on average?
A: yes. 2 weeks to 6+ months
No more analysts! Where was our GS guy? Speed of light was right. The myth lives on.
"intuit" new word of the day from our CEO
crap - louis dreyfus agreeement expires 5/30 and they are negotiating now. You know what that means with a lab geek as CEO they will rape him and drop our $/lb big time.
thousands of tons of fertilizer marked in feasibility study
just signed feasibility study in cosmetics moments ago
NINE pre-commerical contracts in the past quarter. Okay I guess that's news.
half their staff is apparently dedicated to graphics, making powerpoints, and coming up with new brand names
every few months they rebrand their product so they can go out and raise more money. This guy is a fraud.
This CEO is a joke. I regret ever investing in this garbage.
"revenue is not the only indicator of how we are doing... gonna show you what we are doing to expand our reach."
bogus
3.4M cash as of April 30th with 0.8M monthly cash burn.
They estimate they have enough to fund for the next 12 months. How??? Accounts receivable I guess.
Less R and D, more stock option expense. What a formula for success.
Unfortunately can't bring myself to leave.
True story
However none of that matters if they can't turn the corner to sustained profitability. We'll be diluted to oblivion.
With pimacott now officially launched and highly visible at both Costco and BB&B, we have reached a tipping point. Won't be long before every reputable manufacturer will get marked with Pima or HomeGrown upland. Feeling very secure with this vertical. By the looks of things we now have two secure and growing verticals. Auto-marking being the other one. $10M revenue should be our minimum revenue target for 2018.
More like $6M 2017 and $10M+ 2018
Buying vandalia has nothing to do with needing it to manufacture DNA for their core business. Go back and read the PR about the purchase.
$500k a year? That's bupkis. But add up the verticals and looking more and more like we can do over $10M in 2018.
APDN is a very similar company with a very similar path/history to PLUG and one day we will wake up to a huge 8 figure deal and share purchase by a fortune 100 just like PLUG got today with Amazon.
Great! When did this list come out?
CEO presented leather partnership at china leather conference yesterday. Let's see if any Chinese big boys step up to the plate today.
5:30am has come and gone and no new PR today. Better luck tomorrow!
You are correct about all that but you are incorrect with your hyperboles which come often about how the company is a scam and no one is buying their product. That is pure ignorance at best and an intentional untruth at worst and you know it. The reason the stock has maintained its relatively high market cap (price drop mostly due to dilution) to revenue is because the technology is catching on across many verticals and they have the most unbreakable sustainable mark in the marketplace. Patent-protected. So take your bias agenda and hyperbole elsewhere please.
I'm not buying more on this news either and I didn't expect it to pop. You fail to realize there is a HUGE premium in APDN which is reflecting its great potential. Core shareholders are happy holding on at this price because we are happy with the developments and the last several PRs. Yes, I agree the price won't pop until real revenue hits. That doesn't mean these announcements are not significant. They are. And without a constant drumbeat of announcements like this, the stock will easily go below $1. The stock is currently holding a $45M+ valuation which is what some 9x annual revenue? This should tell you everything you need to know about the prospects for this company and what core investors think of its future.
Why is it clear the market has not bought into this story? Why would Costco and bed bath and beyond buy this technology if it was not the best?
When people say the best, we mean the most durable, safest, and accurate. However, it may not be the "best" due to ease of deployment and total cost. However that is changing with CertainT
Interesting how SoL increases his bearish view of the company AFTER the company comes out with several good PRs. Just an observation.
There's a technical indicator for what he is trying to derive. It's called OBV - On Balance Volume. It adds daily volume on positive days and subtracts daily volume on negative days. If the net is positive or trending up it means people may be buying - and vice versa. The absolute number is not important. The trend and wether it's positive or negative is more meaningful.
Check it out. The number is about neutral to very slightly positive for the past month and negative for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years.
If APDN can keep their core cotton customers and keep growing car marking then 2018 will be record revenue. So far no signs either of these businesses are in danger.
It's fine. I'm happy with these two PRs. It's not like the 100M pounds of cotton PR but things seem to be moving now between rapid increase in car marking, onboarding of bed bath and beyond and Loftex, and now CertainT. This is the most hopeful I've been in the last 12 months.
I dispute your 2 conclusions.
1. You said they get no revenue? The PR says these five companies are "sponsors". You usually need to pay to sponsor something so all evidence suggests you are wrong and APDN is getting paid
2. This PR does not state other competitors are involved in this. Wether there is or there isn't has nothing to do with the paid sponsorship with 5 international brands.
Your slander and bias showing through as usual.
Things are different now. I only entered this company after Louis Dreyfus deal. Revenue immediately sky-rocketed in year one, year two small setback due to front-loading cotton, and here we are in year 3 with Bed Bath & Beyond and Loftex being added to Costco and clear re-bound in sight.
I understand things happening slower than we would like but this is not a nothing PR. I view this as an important revenue-generating PR. First of all, 5 international brands are sponsoring this which means APDN may break even or even make a profit on this 9-month research period. Second of all, based on our track record, I am fairly certain the pilot will pass and large revenues will follow.
Remember how I told you all Dr. haywards eyes lit up when I asked him about leather shoes? This was cooking and I nailed reading him. Woohoo!