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Silver lining is that JT and Kennedy will now be fired...
That should get us to the 7's at least...
Messages about how judge Du is obviously a leftist activist appointed by Obama are not out of line and should not be deleted. She didn't rule on the law as a judge (a lawyer not a scientist) is not qualified to overrule the patent office. Its too bad this will have to be appealed in the 9th circuit...
Handicapping the patent case.
In addition to JL's argument overruling the patent office on obviousness is a good way to get reversed on appeal.
Ruling against AMRN on inducement (so the legal eagles tell me) violates the Sanofi precedent, in addition while I can't read much of the case legalese I know AMRN's counsel cited that precedent. So ruling against them there also good way to get overturned on appeals.
Teva did not apparently think much of their chances to accept a small 2 million dollar settlement.
I would feel better with a strict constructionist federalist society judge but overall I like our chances.
Anyone have pacer access... looks like someone just bought???
Before Corona this was guaranteed... now it depends on how things recover (and I don't think Biden will be the actual nominee he is a ringer to keep out Bernie but he is a ringer for whoever the DNC is going to install).
LOL you want Trump to skip right over Venezuala and go right to becoming the Soviet Union by nationalizing production, setting production quotas and fixing prices. What could possibly go wrong? And our bureaucrats are about 100x dumber than the Soviet bureaucrats under Stalin ever were.
The people who are operating under the "its worth shutting down the economy if it saves just one life" theory are the ones being stupid. No society can operate that way and live and we gravely regret indulging such sentimental claptrap if this is not ended soon.
There are too many narcissistic idiots around nowadays who think they are going to live forever... well I know I'm not and neither are they.
They were never going to work. All the more reason to end the lockdowns and let this run its course. Some people are going to die and we just must accept it.
We can't take two weeks more damage we need to just accept the casualties.
South Korea had mass drive through McDonald's testing which our permanent government will take FOREVER to get done no matter what Trump does because unlike Korea our permanent government is incompetent.
Lockdowns won't work except to kill the economy.
We need to be willing to accept some causalties... Cloraquine and for those who know Vascepa should keep them low.
WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 23, 2020
Well the stock market panic certainly has started and may have run its course...
The cases may go up for just a little while longer as more are tested but now that we have an effective anti-viral and that everything is shut down... they will crater soon after that. The panic is not going to get worse it probably has peaked.
HydroxyCloroquine on Tucker Carlson
No doubt that word of it has reached President Trump now. I expect the order to put it on the label to come down by Monday...
Congratulations on being ahead of the curve as usual...
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/malaria-drug-sees-promising-signs-as-future-coronavirus-treatment
Lets be more accurate and realistic... Corona people (except for rare situations like planes where one infected person who coughs can infect the whole plane, for this reason one thing that should be done is to mandate masks in planes and perhaps trains... the Asians have the right idea) infect surfaces and the surfaces infect people.
But in warm weather they don't infect surfaces or at least not for very long, hence there seems to be little community transmission in warmer regions and as the year goes on less community transmission further north. So is this as contangious then the flu... probably not.
I learned long ago from all the global warming doomsayers to not trust doomsaying computer models... they keep pushing back the point of no return for that. I think it used to be 2008.
The flu is much more airborne than the corona virus. The corona virus main method of spreading is that it lasts on surfaces... but it doesn't last very long on surfaces in warm temperatures.
So as the weather gets warmer the spread will be less. Also its an RNA virus... notoriously RNA viruses evolve towards being weaker and weaker very quickly.
Why do that when we have Cloraquine, and even if we didn't have cloraquine why wreck the economy to save a small number of very old people.
Wrecking the economy is going to kill people too.
Yes its terrible. Bipartisan things are almost always terrible, especially when they are passed quickly. Trump should have shut these panicmongers down early by saying that the virus must be allowed to run its course (subject to mitigation in any ways that did not hurt the economy but that he would not tolerate any harm to the economy) and that furthermore he would not allow closures of anything and would treat such things as economic sabotage.
Hopefully AMRN doesn't get screwed.
The biggest concern is that this is destroying the economy, a sane society would have just allowed the virus to run its course which was Trump's (correct) initial instinct (other than him delaying its arrival via a China travel ban) before his hand was forced by hysteria from forces who are merely using this crisis...
Making field hospitals may help calm the hysteria so sure, respirators sure, and above all mass deploy cloraquine... this social distancing stuff needs to both stop and be actively discouraged soon. Need to restart the economy ASAP come what may.
And yes the economy relates to AMRN sales...
They never needed 600 million in cash that 400 million cash raise JT did was bullshit. He should use at least 200 million of to do a buyback now and for once do something right by his shareholders.
The sales reps were useless anyway. JT finally did something right.
I wish he'd get rid of all but a few on a permanent basis. Now if he'd just announce a share buyback I might start changing my opinion of him a little.
Contacting the Baker Brothers about getting new management for AMRN...
Do any posters know of any way to contact them nothing is listed other than them being in New York New York... I can't imagine they are very happy with Thero's performance either and maybe some letters from retailers about just how much we (most of us not all) are mildly speaking dissatisfied with his performance may well help tip the scales against him.
If we win this (we most likely will) generics can't challenge anything until the end of 2022 anyway and they'll still need to break the marine patents (which have been upheld) as well as the Reduce-It patents... ergo no if we win here thats it.
I don't think you need to per se be a big pharma for that... while I don't know this for sure you just probably need to payoff the right lobbyists and patient "advocates" and your tiers probably get lowered. What I do know is it seems like JT has no idea what to do.
Thero should fix the problem with the insurance companies or find someone who can...
After all this time we should have good script numbers not excuses.
Its not that BP is essential... I'd be fine with GIA if the company was doing better and I believe with better management they could do better.
Its that Thero is just a stupid bureaucrat in a job far above his competence level, an accounting functionary LARPing as a CEO who is out of his depth. It didn't matter when the clock was merely being run out on the reduce-IT trial anyone could have been CEO then (and JT DID do the right thing in hiring Bhatt and Cantor I'll give him that)... but his shortcoming s as CEO are obvious now. I had hoped when everyone was criticizing him a week ago that he would be fired soon after the patent case... I worry now that a lot of people have reverted to their old habits of making excuses for his obvious incompetence.
I want good sales not excuses.
"The market as a whole seems to be in a downturn, virus-driven rut that could last longer if these quoted observations are correct:"
Lets not have this turn into yet another excuse for the management's failing to sell this drug, to a degree beyond what I could have imagined possible.
John Thero is whats wrong.
Thero is not capable of doing that but Thero is likely to be fired soon after we win the court case. Judging from the last time he was discussed here just about everyone has lost patience with his failure and incompetence as a CEO.
Obviousness is not a close call
This is all bullshit. If it was obvious why did we have to do an outcome study at all, why was it upheld after high level review at the US Patent Office, why did Teva settle for almost nothing and why didn't Thero (Thero is many things most of them bad in my opinion but he is certainly not a brave man or a risk taker) settle this?
LOL this program would not have stopped this. I suspect you are just a TDS case looking for any excuse to blame Trump for the Corona virus, the market correction and the big drop in AMRN prices.
Trump had nothing to do with the creation of a Chinese worse than normal cold, the market correction is driven by professional panicmongers in the media who hate Trump and to the extent AMRN prices corrected even worse than the general market the president you should be blaming is John Thero (who I thankfully think is going to be gone soon).
I sold my inseego fairly early in the correction and bought AMRN fairly late and bought (unfortunately not quite as low as dmiller) more AMRN during the correction in the low 15s. The combination of us being so beaten down, the likely patent case victory, some kind of likely EU deal and the fact that I think everyone including the Baker Brothers have had it with Thero (who is the chief obstacle and problem with us unlocking the immense value of Vascepa) made me very bullish during the correction.
I'm not too worried about the Corona virus either.
99% chance we win the trial
As I've said you can divine the trial outcome by Teva's decision to settle for nothing and from Thero's nature.
Thero is many things but a brave man (or a reckless man) absolutely not... if Thero was informed by his high powered lawyers that the generics had a case he'd settle even if Dr Reddy wanted an outrageous amount like 100 million dollars.
I actually feel better about the stock today than I have since Thero diluted us 400 million, because I've seen a lot of longtime fanatics turn on him today and that makes me think hes probably lost the confidence of the Baker Brothers (who as far as I know only sold about 4% of their holdings contrary to what James Murphy said) as well. I hate him and think hes a terrible CEO who has terribly mismanaged Vascepa's commercial launch but I do not think he'll be around much longer. Before today I thought his stubborn defenders would never see what I see. Today I think was his Katrina moment if you will. The sky is the limit with this drug provided we have even semi competent management.
They probably wouldn't drop the tier before the label is granted (though they MIGHT if AMRN could convince the insurance companies this drug actually saves them money) but a lot of the groundwork on dropping the tiers could be done.
Also the FDA's stunt with the adcom should have been prevented, if AMRN is going to dilute our stock to raise money one thing they should invest in is high powered lobbyists. Our government (this is not a dig at Trump who I love just everyone else in the government) is not quite as corrupt as Mexico's India's or Nigeria's but its close. They need to play the game to win.
I think the Baker Brothers have already decided to fire him.
They will wait till after the patent case but (IMHO) he will not be around more than six weeks after that.
The work on getting the tiers reduced should not have started when they got the label it should have started the second they got the Reduce-It results on anticipation of the label.
He has failed to get the insurers to lower their tier coverage. He should stop spending money on useless sales reps and start hiring lobbyists and whatever sorts of consumer "activists" can get this done.
He has failed to get the word out about what Vascepa can do to consumers, we won on the First Amendment and we can tell the truth. If the FDA wants to try to stop that they will lose. Abiding by FDA restrictions isn't helping us. We aren't going to be moving very far trying to walk in manacles. If he wants to avoid DTC ads maybe he is right but he needs to get more creative...
Furthermore he cannot generate excitement about the drugs profit potential when he sandbags earnings continously and speaks in a way more boring (but less intelligent sounding) than Ben Stein in Ferris Bueller's day off. It is utterly inexcusable that he has not taken public speaking lessons and this simple thing above all demonstrates that he cares absolutely nothing for shareholders.
JT's only good decisions that were his own were to bring in Bhatt and to go against his normally timid nature and sue the FDA for 1st Amendment (and yet he does not exploit the 1st Amendment win).
As an aside (though I'm an EXTREME minority on this) I think he should have continued the SPA Anchor appeals to the very top not with the idea that the FDA ever would have reversed itself but with the idea that they could then sue the FDA in federal court for breaking the SPA and not with the idea that the courts would ever order the FDA to expand the label but with the idea that they could have gotten perhaps billions in damages from the FDA breaking the SPA contract. Now I'm not a lawyer but I think AMRN would have had a good chance in such a case.
Re: CmTerminator
Good news and bad news.
Bad news is JT is just not capable of this.
Good news is with Raf turning against him I'm fairly confident the Baker Brothers have already decided to fire him shortly after the patent case is resolved.
Oh stop defending him.
This is not a passing squall. Thero's execution in regards to marketing Vascepa has been pathetic and his dilution happy management style have ruined this company and nobody but you has any confidence in him anymore.
He can't speak in a way that inspires confidence in either the company or the drug, he is percieved whether you agree with the perception or not as a dilution happy bureaucrat who cashes options sandbags estimates and then barely meets his sandbagged estimates because good forbid he'd have to think of a better way to sell this drug. The last time the management did something genuinely good is when they got the diabeties society to proclaim Vascepa standard of care... but yet JT does not exploit this or other marketing victories he meekly abides by FDA restrictions which the FDA could never successfully enforce in court.
Even if hes not the worst guy in the world sometimes the Vizier's head has to be thrown to the mob. The Baker Brothers will likely wait until after the Patent case but I imagine they have lost patience with him as well.
Raf its good that you have seen the light, I saw this back when he initially diluted the stock for 400 million dollars the company did not need (and I was irritated with his inability to learn to become a decent public speaker before).
The question is does anyone know how to contact the Baker Brothers and Terrapharma, we should draft a formal letter outlining the reasons why he should be fired. A seekingalpha article about how AMRN's only real problem is the CEO would also help...
I hope nobody changes their mind once this correction ends. The stock is going to rebound and likely be in an uptrend soon... but Thero is going to remain a problem.
Should the company do something to reassure investors (like announcing a stock buyback) sure.
Should John Thero speak during this announcement... dear god no.
They should take 200 million of that 600 million and announce a buyback of 200 million worth...
Will they... you could get struck by lightning and bitten by a shark in the same day I suppose.
The markets really shouldn't worry about Bernie. Bernie has no chance of defeating Donald Trump and yes thats even if this Corona hysteria actually turns into a self inflicted real problem. Bernie has already hopelessly lost Florida because he can't shutup for five seconds about how much his commie a** loves Fidel Castro. Not that Biden can win either, he was always stupid and at this point is a visibly demented and senile old man. His ability to tank his own stock when he speaks is rivaled by very few figures in history, John Thero being one of them.
All the Democrats nowadays are basically communist though (Gabbard was the exception she is merely naive), Bernie's problem is he can't help but be honest about it. The markets should be more worried that the Democrats might do something where they have some shot of winning like nominating Michelle Obama at a brokered convention.
I also wouldn't worry about the patents, John Thero is many things but a brave or reckless man... no. If AMRN isn't settling its probably because he knows very well the generics are doomed.