is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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LMAO! Whatever you do, never pick a fight with either of my thumbs.. remember that scene in "The Presidio" with Sean Connery and those rednecks int hat bar?
usually in the comfort of my home... with an attractive member of the opposite sex.
seriously, why no trading today on uWink. is it a holiday there or something? just wondering.
Actually I am a piano player. Hence I can type real quickly. The spelling mistakes get me every time however. I have been trying to use all of my fingers with equal dexterity for years. My pinky is as strong as your arm.
I am an Enigma.
Try reading the first sentence and the last. Like a business case in B-school.. it works.
too bad.
I am consise.. consice..er.. consise. concise.
what do you require me to explain to you?
sorry, my gas tank is empty.
well well well .. seems as if Mr Hernandez has changed his tune.. OK, I find this debate and this stock extremely interesting. There is no room for false bravado here. It is not for the faint of heart and there is nothing wrong with selling at any time .. whether it be cutting your losses, taking profits, whatever your reasons may be.
I respect everybody on this board and wish you the very best in luck in deciding what to do. My opinions are well-known and I am not going to repeat them. I think it really is a unique situation and an unknown. I can only play the odds.
His point of view is diametrically opposite to what I have posted and where I have been supported by some very knowledgeable people with experience in the software business. In fact, it is almost a reply, and he even uses some phrases from recent postings here. How interesting... he even mentions the recent stock purchasing activity.
These are some undeniable truths/untruths that I think must weight heavily in this "bet". In order to help out those considering this:
- he blames institutional "culprits" for "bailing" in the middle of their "acceleration" as a software vendor. uWink has not left the starting gate yet in terms of being a software vendor. When I see the changes necessary, I will change my observation. Right now, they are not moving in that direction. Now, maybe the Father of Video Gaming can work some Magic. But, that is gambling in my view. There are no guarantees. He may, he may not. He undoubtedly has connections and commands respect. Blaming share dumpers is the oldest form of whining there is. Institutional holders dump for a reason. After all, it is Other People's Money. This time of year and until the year-end, alot of the time it is tax loss selling. Well, you can't blame them. It is their right to so that.
- to change his mind this quickly does not convey a very good message. Serious people do not change their mind too often. They realize the meaning of the phrase: "the trend is your friend". Too much trading is a bad thing. A mere few weeks ago he was saying that you could lose all your money with this stock. What is this? When someone slams the financials like he did, how can he change his position so suddenly when there is no new information that will cause the financials to change? Get real, Chris. Meanwhile, I feel that it will go down one final time, which is a better reentry point.. a far more credible position. All I am saying is let matters come to a head, which they will at the latest with their next qtrly report.
- he again asserts that uWink has 3.2M in the bank. This cannot be possible. His statement is applicable "As at" the end of the last qtr. Sub 600k for MV. Allow for some ST debt, which I believe left Working Capital of 2.2M in the last financials (a more meaningful number). Subtract 1M for further cash burn this qtr. MV will not contribute revenue. HH will and slow the burn, but they will still burn 1M. What can possibly be left? btw, we are halfway through the next next qtr now... Chris?
- he states that "breaking even on the restaurants was all they intended to do". I actually agree! I, in fact, figured out that on my own. Unfortunately, they are now not going to be able to stabilize financially with the 3 restaurants without cost cuts. I believe it to be impossible. They can't leave themselves with .5M in the bank or something. This is just poor execution, nothing else. They did not plan it out properly. I would think that with 3 restaurants successful, they could get debt financing... but they would have to downsize first.
- he makes a further note about the retirement home deal and is portraying it as their first "licensing deal". It is a joint development deal with a customer as a venture partner that will benefit both parties and from which uWink will not make money. I was involved in something like this with Nortel in 1995 (50/50 joint funding). It is a way to develop software with a business' help where both parties win. It is a way of turning vaporware into real software and for the retirement home to get automation cheaply. uWink will in fact lose money on it. Chris shows that he does not know the software business in saying that.
So in considering this; ask yourself a question. What is going to change that will stop uWink from losing money that I can say with certainty? Answer: nothing. After they get MV open, they will break even if they cut cost. Then they must transform to a software vendor.. that will take time and money they don't have, and will accelerate the current trend. The trend is due to their financial condition. Seen it many times.
I think pessimistically in a downward market and optimistically in an upward one. 2006-207 was up, now we are down. Being pessimistic is good in this market. All I am saying is let it fall further.. before you buy. Yes I am a pessimist.. the times call for it, caution and pessimism.
Anyway, having said this.. I wish everybody the best of luck. We all have guts for even considering this stock and chasing our dreams. Good luck everyone.
yes you are right. Makes me wonder why shareholders are not hearing about it.
scenario: stock goes down some more.. stuff/changes happen.. then
movie ==> sales ==> growth
in the Inside Sales scenario.. the sales team would usually arrange appointments/ sales meetings for the partners/more experienced guys. In this case.. that may be Nolan, certainly in the case of the gaming.. Nolan would close. It should have been happening by now. Not sure about the restaurant side of it.
My most positive view of uWink. Greenband, I am interested in your opinion on this.
I do see how uWink could be successful as a sales-driven organization. In fact, it plays to their strengths. First of all, remember, their target market has changed. It is no longer women 21-35 year olds. It is the restaurant market across the US, and possible California initially. They are no longer a restaurant chain, they are a software vendor.
What are their competitive advantages:
1. they have no debt. Therefore they cannot possible go bankrupt, no matter what. There are no creditors to go after them., ergo no need for protection. The worst they can do is be insolvent (unable to pay their bills).
2. Multiple revenue streams.. ie. those revenue-producing restaurants. Not many vendors can claim that.
3. The ability to mount an effective sales demonstration without any props or the need to travel.
OK, so they cannot afford a big-buck sales force. Well, the next tier of sales is a dealer network. Many blue-chip companies have abandoned an in-house sales force because of cos t reasons and gone with a dealer network. Nortel, for instance. I worked for a few Nortel dealers during this last recession. This is the "boiler-room" environment I was talking about. Large sales staffs on zero-base schemes. The pick of the crop rise to the top in a competitive hungry environment. The fat cats running the show get all of the leads. The strongest survive. Not exactly ideal, as the sales techniques deployed and the knowledge of the sales people does not tend to give the product credit, in fact it can harm the product's reputation. Cold-calling aggressive techniques are deployed. However, it could work. Key thing; no one is spending any money until a deal gets done. uWInk could provide training courses in LA for dealer reps. That would be the extent of their involvement and cost. We could see lots of these types of announcements.. I would classify them as meaningful to the stock price maybe in a temporary way. Not long-term. Look for money changing hands for something meaningful.
Example of that is the Florida deal. An area Development Agreement is the same thing applied to franchising. When I read the document it seemed powerful, as there was an implementation schedule and money down. How did it turn out? Money in escrow was refunded and nothing happened.. not meaningful.
There is another kind of sales position called "Inside Sales". It is a fancy term for a telephone salesman. uWink would do well to hire a team of such people and deploy them. They would need someone to finalize the pricing, come up with a pitch..and train the sales force. They would be more knowledgeable than dealers. Inside Sales people make about 50k base and maybe 100k max.
What do I see as the advantages of this? They could offer packages involving trips to LA. There is lots to do/see in LA, great for entertaining. Instead of getting meetings, doing demos.. etc, just pitch to come to LA. Pay for the ticket and hotel stays.. Host a restauranteurs convention...
They could do well even locally for an odd reason. There has been talk of the labor-saving cost advantage to buying uWink. Well, what about labor availability? It is well-known (correct me if I am wrong), that there is a labor shortage in California, and especially in Silicon Valley. So it is not a matter of saving money, it is the lack of people in these rich areas that are willing to do that kind of menial labor. I would imagine that it is not minimum wage, simply for that same reason. That magnifies the cost advantage to the customer. So, uWink would do well in the Silicon Valley area.. or this reason alone.
Apparently it is difficult to find people to pump gas there.. (I know I would always have something to do.. lol.. baaa haaaa).
Anyway, I see this working for them. I have not seen the kind of changes necessary to get them there, and I think those changed will drive the stock down further.. to the .10-20 level. The only reason why it can't go lower is the fact that they have no debt... it can only go so low. Companies that are in danger of bankruptcy go down to sub - .10.
Speaking of which, that is my .02.
Good article. The last paragraph is especially significant. The statement "a la carte approach" is a reference to the fact that they are not tied to a franchising concept where the customer has to buy the entire package in the form of a franchise. The customer is able to pick and choose the applications they want, based on some central core. The central core would likely be nothing other than a proprietary uWink database. As I have posted previously, almost for certain some venues would not want the gaming but might want the POS, and vice versa. Hence the need to package the applications into different pieces with associated pricing. In that way, licensing and franchising are two different beasts. I would be interested in seeing the resulting price list..
One other thing.. I disagree that the system would pay for itself in 6 mo. , but I am in no position and do not have the data to argue it either. If their franchise fee was 1.6M, I would guess that about 1M of that was for technology, that is a big number that 6 mo. of minimum wage labor would not cover.
Actually, I do see a positive outcome for uWink... but not at this stock price. And it will involve a downsizing, which I would think must .. oops.. damn. "will likely" involve senior executives. And i think the CFO/Operations guy will go.
I will post my Positive outcome tommorow evening. The scenario will result in a stock in the .10-20 range, at which uWink will be a great stock once again!
The resulting runup could mirror 2006 or whenever when it exploded... there is a chance..
later.. I have a few forehands coming at me..
Actually I am into hybrids now. In an effort to recover from a recent injury, I am getting electroshock treatments. Feels especially better after a fillup.
If you will excuse me I have a tennis game, followed by a few NBeers.
In his position he cannot be held to blame. At that level the company's Strategy is not under his control. But, he would feel the most heat from the Institutions and have to answer to shareholders. He is responsible for Cost control. The spotlight is on him.
he is "uncomfortable".
I am making a prediction that has a probability. It might happen or not. If I were a betting man I would say it will.
The word for a senior executive at uWInk right now would be "uncomfortable". All of them. But, the fact is that they are committed to getting that last restaurant open. It would cost too much money to back out and be foolish. theother thing that is true is that there is a financial problem. In looking at the chart, it is the reason for the stock's behaviour ever since that offering. They simply have burned too much money with nothing to show for it.
So he would be the most uncomfortable. Without another explanation for the stock purchase, it would be my guess he is making plans for departure... settling things. It may be a gesture or a requirement.
I simply realized that i was being sarcastic for no good reason and apologized. simple..
i did not understand how your post onthat company related to the discussion however. It was interesting though.
actually Netman your comment was a good one. I learned something from it and did not intend to be offensive. My apologies if I was.
aah, something I don't know or can't read for myself from Netman...
Another prediction.... the CFO pumped up the stock price last week in order to fulfill some of his final obligations before he leaves uWink. This is a transition that would take several months to do, would be very private, and there is no other logical explanation. The timing is also perfect.
He has presided as the chief financial executive over a rollout of 2 restaurants that has been badly handled and has presided over a situation where investors money has been squandered. Of that 9M or whatever they received from that offering, only 2M has been put to use in a way that benefits shareholders, namely the investment in the restaurants. Beyond that, what has it accomplished? (that is directly beneficial to shareholders..) SG&A & salaries is not beneficial to shareholders. There has been alack of business planning and basic cost controls.
This is embarrassing for him and not something he wants to be a part of. He may or may not be able to control it, that is up to Nolan. He will be the fall guy if something has to happen.
He just finished releasing annual financials after quarterly financials... he is at a point where it would be good timing to leave. Someone in his position and making his number would take several months to transition. Also, he is going to make whatever final arrangements need to be made. He won't stick around for more than 1 more qtr, as the company simply cannot survive in it's present form longer than that. Judging from his resume, he has better things to do.
Lastly, he makes a big number which is not being utilized. For that operation they need an accountant, perhaps an accounting clerk would do. 3 restaurants? give me a break...
Also soon to go in a cost cutback is the franchising guy. He may be able to sell/market but it is not his strength. He is being wasted and also is making a big number. And guess what will be left.. nothing but members of Nolan's immediate family! Ever worked for a company run by family? think "circus"...
There will be a financial reckoning before the end of this year at uWink. The current CFO will not release financials like that again.
I am thinking of writing a book about this company...
it will be called :
"Implosion of a uRestsoftrantware"
The publishers did not like that name, so I have proposed:
"uWait until U are screwed"
better yet..
"U screwed up - a family thing".
My comment about vaporware was directed that the new software that is detailed in the product links your provided, ie. the
- airport stuff
- other..
I don't have the list in front of me. It is vaporware and of no immediate interest. Software companies do however, conceive of things, sell them, then develop them. Hence I would believe that this software may be in the beginning stages. If it is not even on the public web page yet, there is no reason to believe it is any more than a concept. There may or may not be any working version. It is possible that uWink may be selling it or talking to people about it. All of that is part of the definition of vaporware. Oracle did that in the ERP systems space back in the 90's. They had a team of professional salesmen selling software that did not exist yet. Their competition was PeopleSoft, Baan (for which I worked for a time), and SAP. Oracle is now an established ERP player.
That does not mean the uWink has no software up and running. Of course they do.. in their restaurants. That would included the POS and gaming applications. I never said they have nothing... just to recognize vaporware for that it is.. uWink Air will not fly for awhile!!
This attitude is naive and is not indicative of someone who does/ did own a software company.
Netman, we have a Director of sales echoing the vary same things I have been saying. That poster said they need another 5-15M to develop those components. ie. it is what is called "vaporware", software that does not exist yet.
Therefore, to the investor it is not of immediate interest.. same thing said a different way.
I am not going to try to argue with Greenband.
Good luck.
THANKYOU GREENBAND. So Green band.. i know this has been keeping you up at night... how do you see uWink transitioning to a sales-based organization from what they are now.. how do they become a software vendor?
just to be clear..the CFO was responsible for the recent recovery, which was only temporary.. I thought it might just stabilize back up at .80! interesting..
Well, my knowledge is based on the job interviews I have had with employers when I considered this line of work way back, plus talking with HH (headhunters). You have got to remember, call a scam a scam, and lots of sales work consists of scams. Especially those "zero base" schemes (50% of GP). Usually they are boiler rooms, bogus operations that take advantage of people. The people doing it make next to nothing. 50% of zero is zero.
To my understanding there are 3 types of pay scales in the software industry; pure consulting, pre-sales, and pure sales. As the position moves towards more of a pure sales position, the base gets to be less. But, they are there for a reason.. they would have a substantial quota, and as such 10% of that as commission is reasonable.
Consulting types are typical salaried workers that come in after the contract is signed. They make typical salaries with a small bonus of 10-20%. They travel alot.
Pre-sales people work with the Sales people to close the deal until it is signed. They make a substantial base.. I have been quoted 70k in specific positions I have interviewed for. plus a substantial bonus. Total salary in a good market could be 120k.
Pure sales people make enough money as a base that it is not a scam and they can live on it. They are money-motivated and hence do not care about the base. 1M annual quota for an experienced guy is not that much. I worked for a time in the telephone systems marketplace and guys were doing that. That is Gross Margin or maybe Revenue. Anyway, I did not check to see what kind of sales numbers might apply to uWink, hence size of team. Don't know. Hence if these are serous guys pulling serious numbers, yes 10% would do it. That gives $150-250k annually.
The only other variation I have seen is a "draw". That is a variation of the Scam, where you draw forward against your commissions. I once got sued for repayment of draw. Don't ask..
My impression of uWink is that they have a pure Product that would not have alot of consulting work associated with it and would not really be custom in nature. Hence, I would foresee a team of pure sales people that could sell that software once it is stable and deployed in those restaurants. They may make a bit less than 70k as a base, but don't count on it. uWink would also have some Consulting/training staff. Training was specifically mentioned in the Florida document that Net posted.
That is the extent of my knowledge. How else is it going to happen at uWink? I read an interview with Nolan some time back where he stated that (wrt selling to restaurants) "it will just happen". Well, I don't think so, but a salesman is paid to make it happen.
Greenband help me out here, after all, your bio says you are a Director of Sales.
I am not sure what you think the nightmare is.. those are typical compensation schemes for salesmen. No nightmare..
Was just looking at your bio and posts. Very impressive. I was curious about something. Your bio says you are a VP of sales. What do you think about uWink's strategic shift and their current makeup in senior management? ie. They have a franchising guy acting as the sales guy.. and no hard-core sales experience I can see in their senior ranks, much less software. Not saying Nolan can't do it it is just not his strength. I would see a team of 4-5 people on a 70k base with 1M sales targets as fitting the bill. They take home 10% each for total salaries of 150-250k.
?
thanks.. well put.
I was going to say "not really", but then again... That is why Options, not stocks would be preferred, because they are cheap comparatively. I guess if the stock becomes worthless it is indeed a loss.
On a serious note.... I am wondering whether or not and to what extent insider trading would be possible here. That is what I meant by "something up there sleeve". I have never heard mention of a Board of Directors to represent stockholder's interests. Imagine the carnage if Nolan even had a shareholder's meeting.. anyway...
What is to stop management to drive down the share price maybe unconsciously, then with knowledge of a Big Deal, purchase shares at an opportune time? This kind of things happen all the time. You can see it in the charts prior to news. Volume and price increases due to public knowledge of insider information or insiders themselves...
In fact, a relative of mine is a broker and got a call from a highly placed client one day about selling stock, which he executed. This client was a high-level executive of a hi-tech company. The stock crashed shortly thereafter after a poor earnings report. He later got a call from the regulatory authorities about it. This matter also appeared in the papers up here in Canada. It was a Canadian company, fairly well-known....
I am curious about all opinions on this matter. The fact that this is an OTC company does not help matters much. Thanks.
stock in place of bigger bucks in a cost savings move would be the normal reason.. does not seem to apply here.. lol.
Darn it, that word "must" again.. I must stop .... oops did it again.
Well , what can you expect after a fill-up, a tennis game involving a few to the head, and a few nBeer to dull the pain.
The comment about averaging down was not directed at you Raw...
aaaah good old Rob Thornton and Continental Home Healthcare. My very first disaster. You bring back such memories. I never saw such horrible ST unrepayable debt in my life when I looked at the last set of financials they published. That chart gives the terms "myopia", "narrowmindedness" (in terms of what else is out there) a whole new meaning. What was the reason for buying in the first place?.. Demographics! lol..
I finally called them to ask WTF. I got the CFO on the line. He asked how many shares I had, then said that their financial institution had gone bankrupt, ergo the problem. So it was not his financial management, it was their bank's fault... wonder why their bank would have gone under, making loans to businesses like that. hmmm..
Anyway, thanks for bringing back the memories.. I swear he used that m-word in the MD&A one time.. of course he is a hard man to reach now.. companies in bankruptcy do not publish financial statements! It costs too much!!.. LMAO..
OH and BTW, they FIRED THE CFO!!!!!
lolol.. hehehe..
Thanks for the info! Great input. I have always associated stock options/ownership with highly entrepreneurial companies... but will take your word for it that it is a big corporate thing.. anyway, thanks..!!!
He was responsible for about 80% of the volume in that period. Interesting... he single-handedly drove the stock up. Why would he do that? The volume since then is more typical.
It could be. I have heard of such things. Any way, guys, if want to think I am wrong go right ahead and average yourselves to oblivion. This guy makes a big number, being an MBA/lawyer with his background. Who knows what is going on within their management team? He is part of the salaries they need to eliminate. Management will always take care of themselves first. I have almost every time seen a company like this pay themselves huge salaries while the stock goes into the ground. That is basically what they are doing.
Next you will post his salary, likely public. Do that as well. My only point was that I have observed that this kind of s__t just does not matter. Average away.
One of my first stocks (huge loser) was Continental Home Healthcare. It was one of my "doing what my friends did" things. The owner/President came out and said in his MD&A that he "must" support the stock price and he did. Owned alot of the company. They are now in bankruptcy protection... in the State of California.
anyway.. no I did not "fill up" today.
I am going for an nBeer.
You are the only guy I know that would post a response like that when I say I my post that it is very strange to me. That means I don't understand it. I am saying nothing of any consequence. I advise not reading much into it. Go figure. But, I do have the intelligence to at least know what I don't know and be conservative.
I have observed lots of technology companies in situations like this. For whatever reason, management continues to buy the stock as it falls. It could very well be that his compensation package requires him to do that. Maybe management is under pressure to do that. Or maybe he is just acting on his beliefs like everybody else. I really don't know. I just know what I have observed and for that reason.. I WOULD NOT READ MUCH INTO IT.
and he is the Finance guy.. hmm. You would almost wonder of this management team has something up their sleeve, something no one else knows..
I would be curious if he already has a large position. I believe he does... I think it was posted earlier by someone. Maybe he is just averaging down a bit. But he must have a good sense of where the business is going.
I would not read too much into it. very strange.
Just wanted to let you know that I realize that this game is full of normal human emotions, and as such I understand how you may object to what you perceive to be my negative contributions. I have had my share of losses and so totally understand. It is likely impossible to have a logical unemotional conversation with someone who is invested in this stock and believes it will all work out in the end. I will try to continue to add only helpful information.
Remember how this started. All I did was post that a restaurant or fast-food chain apparently has technology similar to what uWink the software vendor has to offer. You questioned my credibility, and I hence dd some quick research. There was no reason for you to take offense in the first place.
Some advice (if you are reading this). Recent stock activity indicates that this stock may rebound from such future drops. Buy when this thing crashes again.. it may come back up. Think of it as averaging down, not at a certain price, but at the right time... then sell some when it goes back up! That has tow positive effects; a small revenue stream.. and it reduces your average buy-in cost. You will realize a loss on the books, but will feel better about doing something about it. You may actually get out of it all right.