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FishyFingers,
High volume on up-bars typically indicates that ther is supply (selling) present. That high volume combined with the fact that it failed to close higher than the previous high of 3.32 tends to confirm this weakness
This is a spurt, not a volcano.
Wrong. Buying begets buying 83838. AMRN has a rare bullish price pattern nestled within another
The chart comparisons below (PLA vs AMRN) show two identical squeeze patterns. You can see that as prices continue to trend up, we see bullish price action set off a series of other price/volume surges - each perpetuating the other. Here are some of the technical events that are inducing this:
• Close above resistance of the 21-day EMA on strong volume due to short covering (A) and MACD crossover (yellow circle).
• Close above the 50-day EMA (B) plus a breakout of the down trendline brings a volume spike.
• Price surge on moving average crossover, (fast over the slow) (C). Volume soars from automated buy programs.
• Volume expands as a result of MACD centerline crossover (D).
• Soon a golden cross (blue circle) will likely bring another high volume surge.
This buying momentum will lead to a breakout of the larger pattern:
Looks as though the gap at $4.50 is going to fill (finally).
Cheers,
FFS
How do you know they didn't delay, assuming they knew continuation was going to be decided all along? They made some bold financial moves that took time to plan/execute, the footprint of which was not exactly characteristic of prior management. Leads me to believe they relied heavily on Kalb's recommended strategy.
Let's not forget that this time around they won't have to delay to bring a new CFO on board, plan dilution, equity exchange, etc., prior to the IA announcement. If the data from the 2nd look meets their desired threshold, this could be revealed quicker than we think (May 30??) - especially when preventable death is on the line. After all, these placebo patients are getting sicker by the day and have ingested a hell of a lot of mineral oil... yikes! Also, the clock is ticking in terms of staving off generics.
This bodes well for AMRN. The Biotech Group as a whole is tracing a rare volcano pattern, with the 3X ETF of the index (LABU) leading the way.
This should help AMRN's unique pattern resolve quicker as we run up to the 80% look.
AMRN Targets:
$4.50 = October 2013 gap closure
$5.00 = Citigroup price target
$5.09 = level at which the October 2013 selling accelerated.
$6.00 = Cantor Fitzgerald price target
$10.00= H.C. Wainwright price target
$19.44= Post R-IT news gap
$38.10= run up target based on buy out expectations
$66.30= Buy out price
yes indeed
So am I to interpret that you are predicting a breakout much like 1/19/17 where the SP actually closed down .04 from the day before (2.88) and that massive breakout up until this past Thursday had amounted to .08 or a ravishing 2.7%?
You realize your trianglotomy would be much more revered if you had saved the truck for an SP in the 2.80's rather than 3.34?
What we've since then is higher lows and lower highs. Not condusive to breakout. Please save this and be sure to quote me for revenge if things do head past 3.34. TIA.
Perhaps it was simply due to gRAFFs and triangles? Could be pending news but I don't think it was anything more that a spirited bounce off support that caught many traders with their 'shorts' down (squeeze!).
Ok, thanks. Next time you're down by the lake, drop in.
Py, FYI, your buddies are covering. Sure you don't want to join them? I wouldn't want you to get burned while being preoccupied with your bear thesis on this piddly board. After all, "price is king" and right now it's casting a vote against you!
Ok, gottcha. My system consists of biotechs, gold stocks and TQQQ/SQQQ timing system. The former two segments return handsomely. The latter, timing system has gained +413% in the past 30 months on 53 trades (1500 shares ea.) with - get this - NO LOSES.
It feels good to be a "Lone Ranger."
Cheers,
FFS
the sellers are meeting the bid. Buyers with a serious intention to buy and sellers wanting higher prices are the last element missing for me. The last condition, time/rumor/the market as a whole, has not triggered the surge... or the melt up.
I agree, thus the agony of slow basing consolidation. The pps has spent six months being prey to Hedge fund hyenas biting it in the behind - trying to push it off a cliff. So far, they can't even achieve a lower low. At some point there will be a change of character in the price action; close at the high of the day vs the low, or a few key indicator reversals, sufficient to mark a pivot point and begin what you describe as the last missing element. Like this:
Cheers,
FFS
It has a 30% chance of resolving down, 70% up; a game of probabilities. That's trading. Wave 5 of this pattern is still alive until and unless it follows through to the downside with confirming volume. When that happens you won't have to ask me what went wrong, I'll beat you to it and say, "The pattern busted."
By the way, in case you missed it the volcano already had an eruption in 2016 as expected, even without a halt!
You tell me what went RIGHT with triangles, TA, volcanoes, etc. $$ in the bank baby
It's looking that way. A sharp follow though break of 2.90 will bust the pattern and confirm your stance.
My guess is yes but I don't know.
Today is the deadline for note holders to exercise the optional put. The stock has been under pressure ever since Amarin released this press release on 12/16/2016.
Does this event have more bearish or bullish implications? No doubt bullish if the holders were to exercise and then use the cash to purchase shares, but bearish if not - as perceived by the street?
JL, Depression does not lead to CVD..It's just that high systemic inflammation causes depression and CVD...So it makes perfect sense if your inflammatory levels are high enough to create depression...they are also high enough to cause CVD...
and cancer (Immunity, Inflammation, and Cancer). This paper does a good job explaining the role inflammation plays in tumorigenisis. Does V effectively disrupt the inflammatory mechanisms that fuel tumor promoting activity too? Wow!
I would think so, yes. The timing couldn't be better either.
Psychology of participants will ensure a big win for R-it results IMO. This trial consists of sick people getting sicker. Most have addictions they cannot shed; smoking, drinking, over-eating AA enriched diets, no desire to exercise, etc., and are under the misleading impression that statins will nullify the ill effects of their actions. I'm sure there are some who have suffered a wake up call (MI) and have committed to change which probably on average lasted 2-3 mos before they once again succumbed to the weakness of human behavior.
Which group is going to be more successful at changing their lifelong habits, those taking a mineral pill or those taking V and are experiencing all of the potentiating pleotropic benefits ( mood elevation, etc)? I believe these positive psychological elements will combine in one group vs the other to bring about greater separation of the treatment arms.
That's exactly how a bear should feel about his short position
Zum, well said. I take 4g/day for CRC recurrence prevention. My refill in Nov, 2016 was $190 for a month's supply. In January, 2017 it was only $92.
Pie- blah, blah, blah.. you always come out of the darkness when the PPS is clinging to support. How many times has your short been burned betting against the trend. Remember last time? Perhaps you should hedge your short.
If what you say is true, this 5 month consolidation/accumulation pattern would not have ensued and converted shareholders would have exited in droves. Don't you know by now people talk? Eyes have been laid on the data and smart money has been informed to go LONG!
BB – it all depends on your entry point. This stock is a tale of two halves. I don’t care about the “drivers,” the stock is up 70+% from my perspective. On the other hand, those who have held since green rectangle area are beneath the ice line. But their positions have regained nearly half the loss in spite of your perception that there have been no drivers.
Is that not cause for celebration? It's a new day man,.. enjoy the ride.
The data leak, initiated accumulation and the strategy is executed like this:
In AMRN's case, to 'follow the money,' retail longs (who trade some or all of their position) should be averaging in near the primary support line (determined by price volume) or below:
That is exactly what I have done throughout this 5 month pattern of accumulation:
So far it's been an easy/predictable pattern to trade (buy low, sell high). But now I'm loaded and ready to harvest or exit if the 30% chance of pattern failure plays out.
Think like a criminal. If word has leaked regarding the primary efficacy and you are a fund wanting to accumulate as many shares as possible, at as good of price as possible, you would quietly execute an accumulation strategy like the one Wykoff first identified in the markets: Accumulation Phase; Absorbing Stock Like a Sponge
This strategy keeps your operation clandestine until you've accumulated as many shares as possible and then you enjoy the ride up.
Has this happened before? Yep.. in 2012:
These operations represent big dots in the probability of success puzzle. You know what they say on the street,... "Follow the money"
Mayo article, if I'm not mistaken, was the first widespread media report that did not refer to the med as "fish oil."
Perception is changing
nice trades, congratulations.
Important difference: XLRN and ACAD have nasty overhead resistance. AMRN,...blue sky
Obviously most funds, investors and especially retail traders vacillate when it comes to margin. IMO, the price pattern and associated supporting indicators are the best determining factors governing the magnitude of risk associated with a trade on margin.
The current price squeeze we have seen with AMRN pps is a great example. Big funds use these bullish squeeze patterns to build positions for a future reward. With a 70% chance of an upward resolution, and prices consolidating on the lower border, there is not a better time to maximize a margin position. Also, I don't believe there is a better setup to buy calls (when prices finish oscillating towards an apex). Volatility and premiums are low and poised to explode. That's the nature of squeeze plays - best risk in the market that also offers the biggest opportunity cost to those who shy away from the sleepy price action.
JL, That was a beautifully written post with sage advice. Thank you
Nukem, There are many different approaches to risk management. Is it wiser to put no more than 5% in each of a number of micro small cap crap with minimal average volume as Kiwi is doing, or leverage 100% in one position (AMRN) that offers about as favorable a reward/risk ratio you could find? Consider this setup:
For what it's worth, if one is willing to risk the minimal stoploss, IMO, there is nothing wrong with putting more into AMRN given current circumstances. If it turns sour, losses are predetermined. If the stock sprints out of this pattern (70% odds, as it did in the past), it will likely close the 4.50 gap, producing substantial profits that then lessen the risk of holding through the halt-or-continue secondary interim announcement.
4:34am post. LOL. Did you lie awake all night thinking about it or did you set your alarm? :)
PPS Projection:
I'm asking you. Is it really that difficult for you to explain your projection in numbers and dates?
And the craziest thing is to compare the two time periods. It's like if a meteorologist shows a weather pattern for 1997 and says because it looks similar to present, he predicts XYZ to occur in 2017.
The reason that the earlier chart shaped the way that it did, is because of the two successful trials. By comparing the two, you are inferring that RI will be a homerun - but you don't know this, no one knows this. And if RI does turn out to be a homerun, do we really need a chart to tell us that PPS will skyrocket? Hence my question, what does the chart predict and when??
Why don't you give me YOUR interpretation of MY chart since you seem to think it is so ineffective. Arrows will work, I don't need $xx on xx/xx/xxx. Up, down or sideways will work just fine. When the canvas dries, I don't think too many will see it as differently as you think.