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If TSHO produced this infomercial, I'd be worried.
Emotions take over and people lose sight of the fundamentals that have kept it on a steady increase for a year. I see the logic in that. Whether short-selling was in the equation or not, it's ultimately the emotions that cause the swing.
I also imagine that the swings can be much more rapid and extreme given the small amount of shares available.
Buckey,
Would you care to lend some insight on the shorting that happened recently? How it makes the price rise and fall so rapidly? I would value a short-sellers insight on it.
I did read it. It seems fine to discuss them as a group, but not to post the content they charge for. It's still their content, not public domain.
Also, that addition might be one of the legal aspects that will allow them to go after some of the attacking parties.
I'm sure they'll issue a separate public statement if it serves their best interest.
Hard to say. If Skymark and TSHO's lawyers find legal violations and can act on them, the smear campaign might die quickly, with apologies. Plus, if a large number of short-sellers really did lose big on the stock, they probably aren't coming back. If the stars align here, we may not see anything like that again. Slow steady increase will be very welcome. I liked today's stabilization for the second half of the day. A boring day is a nice change of pace.
Great, thanks for the resource. Helps a ton.
Whatever they release, I hope it is concrete information with little room for interpretation. Given the recent events, the quality and clarity of PRs from here on out is going to be extremely important.
Daisy, you seem to be pretty familiar with how short selling works. When they are required to cover, what time of day is the deadline? Can they wait until 3:59 and cover in that last minute or does it have to be taken care of earlier?
We won't have any breaking news until they give us some idea of how the first week of tests went and what their plans are for the next phase. If that happens next week, I would be surprised. They have to analyze data, make adjustments, and schedule new infomercials. I'm thinking that nothing substantial will be reported until the second week of March. That would still be right on track with what the CEO said he would do.
Well, if there really is a large number of short-sellers who got burned on this stock, they may never come back.
Will we see the short-squeeze through a spike in volume? If so, then it doesn't look like it's happening.
I see some sell orders at 1.03 coming through on Level 2. Someone is settling...
What's the impact of the new SEC rule? The stock went down a lot more than 10% right off the bat. I thought this should trigger the halt on shorting for the rest of the day.
I guess there is logic in that. Not like the care one iota about the company, so there's probably not much research going into it.
The statement that bashers don't bash bad companies continues to resonate with me. Anyone else feel the same way? This is a scenario that has played out through history many times over.
Spongetech's management was shady and did a great job of hiding it. I don't think anyone saw that coming. Always a risk with any company. Another reason I place so much emphasis on the quality that Luniel De Beer has shown. Could be wrong, always could be wrong, but I don't think so. Not this time.
Who does Scottrade use for their trades? I'm assuming they go through a market maker?
Also, if a firm like Scottrade has members buying and selling the same stock at the same prices, does it ever actually hit the market? It wouldn't make sense to me that they would even have to trade it in the public if they can accommodate the trade in-house. Is this accurate or are there rules that pertain to this?
Thanks,
Ryan
Another Skymark bashing article:
http://microcapspeculator.net/2010/02/05/skymark-crosses-ethical-lines-to-pump-tradeshow-marketing-tsho-ob/
There's a theme going on here. Bashers are saying Skymark is sending misleading e-mails setting unrealistic expectations of PPS. These people must be illiterate because it appears they are only looking at the graph and not reading the e-mail. It's pretty clear Skymark has published graphs with many theoretical scenarios and long-term extensions of those situations. I've never looked at one and said "they guarantee this stock is going to be worth $30.00 per share."
Disinformation, disinformation, disinformation.
Just what I was looking for. Thanks for the help.
Maone, this might be a stupid question, but how do you determine the P/E number with a new company that has no historical price and earnings numbers? I have been trying to wrap my ahead around general P/E, but it gets even more confusing with a brand new company.
Also Daisy, do you have any insight into the potential effects of the new SEC ruling?
And, has anyone confirmed that this takes place immediately? I can't find anything regarding the day it is implemented, or how it is implemented. I am assuming it would take some major changes to how the systems run their processes.
When that pick comes out, I ought to have some beta versions of the new tools I mentioned a few days ago. Hopefully it can help us gather our data much faster for this one.
I decided to venture into the world of Level 2, at least for the next month. So, as I'm reading this, I see ask prices at 0.87, 0.93, and 1.30. Does this in theory mean that once we get past 0.93, we should see a sharp increase in share price?
Any pre-market Level II's available?
Recap Of What We Know (Important)
Let's look at what we know:
1. We know TSHO has a strong business plan and they are executing.
2. We know Skymark Research has a successful track record.
These are inarguable facts. These are the reasons we came here and the reasons we stay. This hasn't changed.
Let's look at what we don't know:
1. We don't know the circumstances of the relationship between Skymark and TSHO.
2. We don't know the circumstances surrounding Billy Samra's departure from ESR.
There might very well be a strong personal link between Skymark and TSHO, but it doesn't make either company any less valid. The actions speak for theirselves. Also, I couldn't care less if Billy Samra worked from Seattle or Calgary or Paris, France. A lot of companies have employees working from home or remote offices. This is the information age, it's normal.
I do think that these should be researched further just to round out our due diligence.
(This is post #15 for me, I'll be watching from the sidelines the rest of the day. Also, all those who sent me private messages, I apologize for not acknowledging them. I didn't even know I could receive private messages.)
Later.
-Ryan
There's a message on the Yahoo board about some guy named Bill Samra that worked at ESR until a couple weeks ago. I can't find anything that links him to ESR but he claims to have worked there. He left a recording at 206-905-9407 with an explanation. I'd recommend calling it.
He may not be around much longer. If the SEC isn't just doing a smoke and mirrors routine, he's going to have to adjust his strategy to comply with the new ruling today.
Can anyone explain to me why short-selling is even allowed? What is the benefit to the whole? The more I research, the more it seems like it should be completely eliminated.
Maone, you must have taught everyone well because the board went from concerned to confident without your intervention today. I think "Stick with me kid, and you'll be alright" really proved itself today. Nice quote.
It isn't just Skymark, it's going to be PSC, TSHO, and everyone else who is looking to fight back against Sykes and Davis. If this SEC ruling does what it is intended to do, they are in big trouble.
New SEC Rule:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/25/business/25short.html
I'm amazed that only five people are involved in voting for new rules.
There is another major component of this going on that we aren't talking about enough. These attacks aren't specific to TSHO. These attacks are very directed towards Skymark. TSHO is the vehicle. Some people out there feel threatened by Skymark and are doing anything to discredit them.
It isn't a coincidence that this started right before the SEC ruling came down.
I don't really know to be honest. I don't think it's $1.50. I'd like to think there is a confidence level associated with being over $1.00, so I'd be pretty happy anywhere in there, but I am not basing it on any type of precedent.
I suppose normal would be better defined as less swings in the stock. Get rid of some of the short-selling, calm the investors, long holders keep building positions, and stabilize the stock with slower increases. That's my definition of "normal."
What do you think?
Agreed. Also, did anyone really expect to stay at 1.50ish after that huge boost? This isn't all just short-sellers and bad PR. Some of it is market correction. We might be to low now, but it's tough to tell when we don't have sales numbers. We'll know when we do get them and we'll be happy investors.
Look, we're already back to 0.98 today. We'll keep creeping up and be back to normal in no time.
Does it cover all markets or just the major ones? I couldn't find an answer on this, but I know some of these rules sometimes go into effect only on major markets. It might not apply to pink sheets.
Right! And since we haven't ramped into the real sales yet, the PPS is just a number that remotely indicates investor confidence. It doesn't indicate a change in the company's operations. A few bad eggs like Timothy Sykes and Melissa Davis are enough to cause some fluctuations, but nothing much. We always stay long and strong.
Sykes also has to get in his last hurrah before the new SEC rules kick in. This is his going away party.
In all honesty, it makes me nervous to wake up, see the stock spiraling downward, then read the article I read. After about an hour though, my senses are coming back. The company still hasn't changed. This is going to be a trying period, but I still believe the company is strong.
There are some glaring errors in the article. One big one is she is essentially calling TSHO a squeegie company. We know full well how ridiculous that sounds. The research is pretty one-sided.
And yes, Melissa Davis has an affiliation with Timothy Sykes. They collaborate on research to drive stock prices down and help short-sellers.
This is being voted on today. I can't seem to find anything on when it would go into effect. This is a short-sellers nightmare if it happens.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704240004575085344139674042.html?mod=WSJ_Bonds_RIGHTMoreInMarkets
This article is geared towards people looking to short the stock. Shorting seems to be a theme here lately.
Hey all, don't forget that there is another team of analysts watching this stock as closely or closer than we are. Skymark/ESR/Liberty is watching like a hawk. When SpongeTech started to look bad, they issued a warning. When it was for sure, they issued a hard sell. If there is something that we don't see, they will.
Since they have not issued any warnings but have given positive updates, it's more confirmation that we are correct in our DD and should be holding strong on our positions.