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20-F in 4 days?, AMEX listing in near future?
email from McCluskey
see: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=1247899
"U.S. listing status is clearly one of our key corporate objectives... Alamos filed a 20F registration with the SEC on June 30th. This is step one. This takes about 60 days to be effective. At that point we have something like a bulletin board listing. Obtaining an AMEX listing means we must meet the minimum qualifications. At this point we would, except for share price and market cap. I can't say at this point when we will cross that threshold, but I don't believe we are that far off in time."
With recent PP and increase in share price, AGI should be getting closer to AMEX listing, this could explain recent share price strength and RBC purchasing...?
Marcos, summer vacation is officially over...
HUI:Gold Ratio analysis
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/rodin082703.html
"Conclusion: I think that the HUI : Gold ratio may be headed for somewhere between 0.55 and 0.75. This would give at gold 400 - HUI 220 - 300. Previous wave analyses I have done (Gold, HUI) targeted 395 and 275 respectively by/before October. I will gladly be proven wrong - so long as it is to the upside!"
Alamos going vertical today...
close to another 52 week high @ 1.65
Atna Golden Cloud News Release
Atna Resources Ltd. (ATN: TSX) and Great Basin Gold Ltd. (AMEX: GBN; TSX --Venture: GBG) are pleased to announce that Great Basin has entered into an option agreement to acquire an interest in Atna's Golden Cloud project, located in Elko County, Nevada.
The Golden Cloud Property lies on the eastern margin of the Northern Nevada Rift system at its intersection with the Carlin Trend. The property is contiguous with i) the southern boundary of the Ivanhoe claim block, about 3 kilometres south of the Hollister Development Block where the high-grade gold-silver Clementine-Gwenivere vein systems are currently being developed by Great Basin and Hecla Mining Company; and ii) the eastern boundary of the Silver Cloud prospect that is being actively explored by Placer Dome and Teck Cominco. The main Carlin operations of Barrick and Newmont are located 10 kilometers to the southeast.
The principal target at Golden Cloud is a 'bonanza style' epithermal vein gold deposit. Outcrops of silica sinter and silica replacement bodies with widespread cinnabar mineralization are developed on the property, and occur within Tertiary 14-15 million year old volcanic flows and tuffs. Historically, some of the sinters associated with gold deposits in the vicinity of Golden Cloud were mined for their mercury content. Golden Cloud, however, is a new discovery, untouched by previous mining. Gravity anomalies, magnetic anomalies, and mineralized fractures and sinter trends on the property suggest northwest and north-northwest trending structures, similar to ore-hosting structures at Placer Dome's nearby Silver Cloud deposit and Newmont's Ken Snyder mine. The gravity survey results also indicate a potential high in the basement rocks underlying Golden Cloud's silica cap.
Most of the high-grade vein mineralization on the adjacent Ivanhoe property occurs within the basement Valmy Formation rocks beneath the Tertiary volcanic section. Gold becomes increasingly anomalous to the north on Golden Cloud, near a northwest striking structure that appears to bound the silica cap's northern flank.
Geological, geophysical and geochemical surveys by Atna have identified a second target area on the northern part of the property: an extensive, structurally-controlled zone of sinter and silicified volcanic rocks that strikes northward toward the area of the past producing Hollister pit and its feeder vein sets (Clementine & Gwenivere) on the Ivanhoe property. The qualified person for Atna's work on the property work is R. McLeod, P.Geo.
Great Basin Gold can earn a 70% interest in the property by spending $2,500,000 on exploration and development, including a minimum of 30,000 feet of drilling, making cash payments to Atna, and by assuming underlying option and property maintenance payments. Upon fulfilling the earn-in requirements, the companies would form a 70:30 joint venture for further exploration and development of the property.
Atna and Great Basin look forward to further exploration of the Golden Cloud property. A fall/winter exploration program is being planned. Great Basin Gold will manage the project with support from Atna personnel.
Copyright © 2003 by Great Basin Gold Ltd. All rights reserved worldwide.
For more information, send questions and comments to info@hdgold.com
This page was created on Tue Aug 26, 2003 at 10:27:21 AM Pacific Time.
http://www.greatbasingold.com/gbg/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=67131
MOY-using fully diluted shares
Need to consider the 1.96M in the money warrants/options to derive fully diluted shares. Warrant/Option details at very bottom.
Bottom Line:
*28,375,264 Fully Diluted Shares
*US$ value of NEM distribution at $37.70 = US$.80 per share
*For each share of NEM, MOY shareholder will recieve .021145 NEM shares
*Warrants/Options proceeds will be C$2.05M
*With option/warrant proceeds, cash value of MOY shares post distribution will be US$.28
Pretty sure this is accurate...
______________________
800,000 total NEM shares to MOY 800,000 800,000
% distribution to MOY shareholders 75% 100%
Share distribution to MOY shareholders 600,000 800,000
26,414,014 MOY shares o/s 26,414,014 26,414,014
Warrant & Option Exercise 1,961,250 1,961,250
Fully Diluted MOY shares o/s 28,375,264 28,375,264
0.021145 NEM shares per MOY share 0.02114518 0.02819357
$37.70 NEM share price $37.70 $37.70
Value of NEM Distribution US$ $0.797 $1.063
Value of NEM Distribution C$ $1.115 $1.487
Post Distribution
Cash In Bank-Can$ $9,000,000
Exercise of Warrants/Options 2,052,625
Total Cash C$ 11,052,625
Cash per Share C$ 0.390
Cash per Share US$ $0.279
Warrants & Options Shares Proceeds C$
Cdn $1.00 February 5, 2004 1,100,000 $1,100,000
Cdn $1.15 September 24, 2004 792,500 $911,375
Cdn $0.80 July 11, 2004 68,750 $41,250
Total 1,961,250 $2,052,625
Well, not to rain on the party, but MOY management leaves much to be desired..., especially its investor relations. To be fair, I admire MOY's prof engineer also taking on the I/R duties..., but I have had enough.
For all new MOY purchases I make, I will likely hedge by shorting NEM or selling Dec NEM calls..., effectively locking in a 10%+ profit, by holding 2-3 months. At this point, this is an arbitrage position, nothing more, and we will have to wait until the NEM deal closes to receive full value on MOY, IMO. I will sell my MOY shares for at least its cash value per share, post-distribtution. Cannot fathom MOY not selling for at least its cash value per share, post distribution. Thus, there is at least a 10%+ arbitrage opportunity left by buying MOY and shorting NEM.
Because of Kiernan's 30%+ shareholdings and age, MOY has acted as anticipated, i.e. cashing out its major shareholder upon terms VERY favorable terms to all shareholders. MOY management has performed well in regard to cashing out all its shareholders, on the same terms.
As for accolades, my thanks go out to bayview for his insights into MOY, he was proven right, as well as to Russ W.
Had to go to a Estate & Tax planning seminar..., put in a bid on MOY at US$.91 for 2000 shares, and was filled..., last thing I needed was more MOY..., now about 14% of my trading portfolio..., and I have a bit in my IRA...
At NEM = $36.75, MOY distribution alone is worth US$.82
Re-reading press release, MOY anticipates C$9 million in cash after paying transaction costs and legal, this equals US$.24 per share. Still need to add in the US$.20 guesstimate for the 2% NSR, thus FMV of MOY should be US$.44 or C$.61 post distribution... (giving no value to other mining assets).
"Following the distribution to its shareholders, the Company will have working capital of approximately Cdn$9 million after payment of taxes and costs in connection with the transaction."
MOY still getting no respect as an arbitrage play, likely because it is so thinly traded... Will add more if MOY share price is less than NEM distribution plus $.05 (i.e. US$.87), at least that is my current thoughts...
resumed trading 12:53, anyone have a real time quote
VERY positive...
800,000 NEM shares instead of 784,314
600,000 distribution = 75%
That equals US$.84 with NEM @ $37.00, for the NEM share distribution alone, = Can$1.18
Total value MOY via NEM distribution alone (i.e. without royalty, other properties) = Can$1.57
"It's about time!" Amen...
Just noticed last time MOY was halted on 3/24/03, it did not resume trading until the next day, 3/25/03...
It figures, MOY never in a hurry...
Note this APG statement:
"The Company does not currently have the financing to complete the stripping required in the mine plan and its ability to exploit the Montana Tunnels Mine is therefore dependent on arranging financing or entering into a joint venture with a third party.
The Company ended the quarter with $2.482 million in cash compared to $13.293 million at the end of December 2002. The decrease in cash is due to ongoing capital expenditures at the mines and the continued exploration activities, especially at the Black Fox Project. Additional financing is required to complete the stripping at the Montana Tunnels Mine required in the current mine plan. The Company is currently evaluating its financing options."
Need to watch upcoming PP...
Robry Graphs & Comments updated for 8/22/03
http://amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html
Remember Robry Comments:
This "longer-term model is not really intended as a prediction but a tool. It is an extrapolation of the supply/demand balance of the past 10 weeks, extended out with seasonal factors & degree-day-norms, to its either reasonable or unreasonable conclusion. If it gives an unreasonable conclusion (ie fall storage peak of 1200 BCF) then it is used as an indication of an impending price change for natgas which would be required to correct that unreasonable conclusion (ie higher natgas prices)... The longer-term model already includes the demand-destruction, so you need not worry about it..."
How about that 2 year chart, wonder how many folks looking to get out at prices above $4-$5...? Also, how did so little volume drive the stock price over $10?
7/16/03 Burnstone Resource Estimate @ 5M ounces
Area #1 only, does not include Area #2
Bottom Line at page 30, using 300 cut off and 1m (100cm) width, total resource is 5.05M ounces for Area 1 of which 3.06M ounces is measured.
pdf pages 20-31 are most important, IMO, i.e. page numbers 16-27
http://www.sedar.com/csfsprod/data39/filings/00552932/00000002/m%3A%5CCAROLW%5CGBG%5CBehreDolbearTec...
MOY:
http://www.sedar.com/csfsprod/data38/filings/00547392/00000001/w%3A%5C3w_out%5C25493%5C1qtr.pdf
"Prior to the combined Annual and Extraordinary General Meeting to be held in Toronto at the end of July, 2003, a circular detailing the proposed transaction and the eventual path forward for your Company will be distributed to all shareholders."
Well, as we all know, this Annual Meeting has still not happened, and certainly did not happen in July as hoped per this 5/28/03 letter... But maybe, just maybe, MOY has its lawyers right now preparing "a circular detailing the proposed transaction and the eventual path forward for your Company will be distributed to all shareholders." That may account for the recent MOY strength?
PP closed, cash in the coffers less that pesky 7% commission...
Alamos Gold Inc. Announces Closing of $12,325,000 Private Placement
21 Aug 2003, 3:08pm ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S.
NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.
Alamos Gold Inc. has closed the private placement announced August 8, 2003 of 8.5 million units at a price of $1.45 per unit for gross proceeds of $12,325,000. Each unit consists of one common share in the capital of Alamos Gold and one-half of a transferable share purchase warrant. Each full warrant entitles the holder thereof to purchase one additional share of Alamos Gold at a price of $1.75 for a one-year period following closing. The shares, warrants and any shares issuable on exercise of the warrants are subject to a hold period expiring December 22, 2003.
RBC Capital Markets, the Lead Agent, and Haywood Securities Inc., the Co-Agent, have received a commission equal to 7% of the gross proceeds raised from the sale of the units.
Agree. You were wise to downsize your MOY position. When CVOL made up 70% of my portfolio, I was calling the President, VP, the analysts following the synfuel industry, CPAs knowledgeable on taxcredits, etc. each week to keep on top of things... Too much money invested not to keep constantly updated. A single large position does concentrate your mind...
Cannot even imagine having 98% of portfolio in MOY, given the inability to talk with MOY (quiet period), none from NEM either (too large a company & quiet period), and no analysts following in last few months/years... Such a small cap, not even arbitragers are participating...
APG, tend to agree with you tf..., only have a small, initial position...
Am wondering if APG is about to do the PP thingy, which would not be helpful... Would not be surprised to see them do a PP and wondering how market would react, hopefully not...? Sure has not hurt AGI, MVG, CBD and others...
(FWIW, APG is a light hedger, under 1 year of production (about 6 months if they hit the 200K ounce production rate in 4q), but their hedges were underwater last quarter...)
98% of your holdings...
you live up to your login name!
been there, done that with CVOL (70%+ of holdings) which became HDWR, but sold at a miniscule 3x profit (could have held on for 10x), but I did pay off the house and unfortunately lost a lot of the remaining capital with IPP's such as WMB and MIR, but did buy GLG, RGLD, Francisco and FN.to near there lows to offset the IPP debacle... Now I try to ensure that no stock makes up more than 15% of my portfolio, but GBN now does, with its runup...
FWIW, MOY only makes up 14% of my trading account, with its near double for me...
Good luck, and you are in fact better off diversifying with these junior golds, 98% is a tad much...!!
agree, holding all my MOY... no better spec out there and @ 30% discount you have great downside protection given the NEM deal goes through, has to be a 90%+ probability this deal will be consumated, IMO..., just like all the other deals NEM has done recently, slow but eventually gets done in line with the agreement/letter of intent...
no sense in selling until the deal announced, and even then you are likely better off waiting for the actual NEM distribution to get full value.
however, I am strongly considering a short on NEM to cover 33% of my MOY shares. if gold goes over $410 before this deal consumated, then I will likely short NEM... FWIW, MOY has publicly stated it would distribute over 50%, so 33% would still leave some upside... just some thoughts
HUI/Gold & XAU/Gold
HUI:Gold Ratio
XAU:Gold Ratio
US NatGas Comp Valuations-Raymond James
as of 8/18/03
http://beacon1.rjf.com/researchpdf/iEne081803b_0923.pdf
Purchased APG today at US$2.15/Can$3.00
Have previously invested in APG/WHT via EDV (Endeavour Mining Capital) which has large positions in these "second tier" miners and EDV sells at a discount... But at $3.00 this looks like a good entry point so got a starter position... EDV owns shares and warrants in companies such as APG/WHT/Bema/Northern Orion...
http://www.endeavourminingcapital.com/inv_info.php
APG will list on AMEX per 8/15 news release, and this should help market liquidity, etc.
NEM vs. MOY charts (3 month/6month)
Charts pretty much in parity, MOY has consistently retained around a 30% discount. Current NEM arbitrage value* = $1.61 vs. $1.12 = 30.67% discount... (*not including royalty, cash on hand and other gold properties, however, does include MOY's effective PR campaign)
3 month
6 month
NatGAs-Robry forecasting +78 build this week ending 8/15...
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7081371&tid=cwei&sid=708...
+78 should be neutral for natgas prices...
okay, how about $1.38 on an odd lot trade of 58 shares...
12:18 1.380 58 OLT Haywood RBC
Is printing $1.40 close enough to fill that gap...??
what's a penny between friends...
Goldheart index updated...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/goldheart.html
Gold, 30 Year Treasury & Euro
Gold
30 Year Treasury
Euro
BEEP takes a director seat at GBN
Previously Rob Still, now the largest shareholder of GBN, took a seat. But I find the election of Nkosi to the board as a wise political decision...
Eyesizwe is Tranter which is the 20% Black Economic Enterprise Partner (BEEP) at Burnstone...
______________________
Mr. Sipho Nkosi Joins Board of Great Basin Gold Ltd.
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug 18, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
Ronald W. Thiessen, President and CEO of Great Basin Gold Ltd. (AMEX:GBN) (TSXV:GBG) is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Sipho Nkosi, B. Comm., MBA, as a Director of Great Basin, effective Wednesday August 13, 2003.
Mr. Nkosi is South African and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of South Africa and a Master of Business Administration from the University of Massachusetts in the eastern United States. He has an extensive background in the mining and power industries. He is a founder and currently Chief Executive Officer of Eyesizwe Coal (Pty) Ltd ("Eyesizwe"), a Black Economic Enterprise ("BEE") as established by law in South Africa that is one of the country's largest coal producers. Prior to founding Eyesizwe in 2001, Mr. Nkosi spent three years with ABB and Alstom, initially as Managing Director-ABB Power Generation (SA), and then as Country Manager of ABB/Alstom Power until December 2000. From 1993 to 1997, he was Marketing Manager for Billiton Ltd., an international mining company.
Great Basin is actively engaged in two advanced stage projects: the Burnstone gold project on the famous Witwatersrand gold field in South Africa, and with Hecla Mining Company, the Hollister Development Block gold project on the prolific Carlin Trend in Nevada. Mr. Nkosi's background and experience will be valuable asset to the Company as it moves the Burnstone project toward production.
For further details on Great Basin Gold Ltd. and the Ivanhoe property please visit the Hunter Dickinson Inc. website at www.hdgold.com or contact Investor Services at (604) 684-6365 or within North America at 1-800-667-2114.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Ronald W. Thiessen, President and CEO No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved the information contained in this news release.
SOURCE: Great Basin Gold Ltd.
OT takes a while to load, but pretty funny...
http://www.bordergatewayprotocol.net/~jon/humor/web_animations/may02-smilepop-soapbox4.swf
thanks for that link...
NatGas-FWIW, check out Robry update:
http://amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html
also this message:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7081371&tid=cwei&sid=7081371&...
OriginalFred has a nice wedgie chart...
here is his home page, updated infrequently, but has the best Dow/Gold ratio graph there is...
http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/
Rand Price of Gold: 10/99 - 07/03
may have to add a Mostly Silver board, but will have to find the links...
not sure how kitco and comdirect servers work, but if this board starts getting too many hits, then kitco & comdirect may somehow unconnect the links...? thus, may be best to keep this board's existence as quiet as possible...? mums the word...
IMO, this may be the best single page website to monitor the price of gold in real-time...
FWIW, here is the comdirect silver link...
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1
$Gold - This board may be of interest, please no posts, but if you do have a real-time gold chart link, please advise and I will update the i-Box charts. Would like to find a real-time December Futures chart and US$ Index chart to include.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1921
MOY pasting a new 52 week high...
Thanks, like the i-hub board format with the i-Box/Board info... Allows "one click" links by specific company, which results in less clutter/deletions in my IE Favorites folder... Also, i-hub does not have as much chit-chat and meaningless clutter as pervades most other message boards..., so one can more easily find relevant prior posts.
Can someone e-mail me the best/most thorough of these Yorkton report(s) or similar analyst writeups on CBD, will update website with some of this info... amarks@bearfourm.com
http://www.yorkton.com/webapp/v3w3/x03_03_main.jsp?txtTicker=CBD
http://www.yorkton.com/webapp/v3w3/x03_02_main.jsp?PersonID=1251910
Thanks!
Okay, some of you TA gurus get off your butts and get as creative with Great Basin, Alamos, & Cumberland charting (my largest 3 juniors...) as this guy.
I am looking to unload some of these at higher prices... :)
Get me some charts showing my juniors going to $100 like this guy does, post them on some internet chat sites, and let's all retire pronto...
see http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/rodin081403.html
Notes to the above chart (from link):
The pattern exhibits rotation & reflection symmetry about the purple downward-pointing 'axis' arrow 4 fans in 2 symmetrical pairs define major support and resistance.
The divergent green fan that opens up moving forward whose apex is on the 'axis' is postulated purely on symmetry grounds as a rotation of the convergent green fan about the purple 'axis'. Its validity is yet to be tested, though price action has been supported by the upper line recently.
The orange fan pairs are similarly related by c2v symmetry. Both fans are already supported by chart data, the divergent one obviously less so.
The white dotted line shows a possible inverted head & shoulders formation, aligned along the trend angle of inclination - the way the wind is blowing - identified in second chart above. This H & S is centred on the purple 'axis', and indicates possible price support going forward.
The ultimate price peak will depend on how long and high this silver bull runs.