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JT, my team won the National Championship.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/boxscores/2007/04/02/43391_boxscore.html
Future is relatively flat at the moment.
WB, We WON - NCAA National Championship!
Florida Gators National Champion 2006 - 2007
The Florida Gators won the 2007 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship on April 2. The Gators held off Ohio State 84-75 to successfully defend their national title.
TRIN & TRINQ
We WON - NCAA National Championship!
Florida Gators National Champion 2006 - 2007
The Florida Gators won the 2007 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship on April 2. The Gators held off Ohio State 84-75 to successfully defend their national title.
TRIN & TRINQ
Yes, China is taking off again, it is trading at 3267 at the moment. It is having all the fun!
S Korean Kospi is catching up. $NIKK is also trading positive today.
Yes, just maybe...
Enjoy
Welcome aboard, Treat50
Thanks and I am happy to see you. Hope that you will enjoy sharing your expertise with us.
NVDA is trading at important support in a strong down trend. Breaking above 50dma is a very good signal for positive future price actions, but it has to reverse at the current support, 50% RT. I hope that it will reverse. Caveat: breaking 27.70 +/- will be opening up retracing to the Jul 06 bottom.
Florida Gators are winning so far.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/boxscores/2007/04/02/43391_boxscore.html
BEBE is trading at very important LT support with the very similar pattern which we have seen during 2005, as a fractal formation. The same as NVDA, seeing successful reversal at the current, critical support is very important.
Again, welcome aboard and Best Wishes
Yes, true that market is keeping us on our toes riding along the edges of the TL supports. Both bulls and bears are glued to the S/R lines for ST trading. Good idea which you noted for your trading strat.
We have holiday trading during this week, so will see relatively light trading volumes.
If you would like to check on P&F charts for PF technicals, it will be good.
$SOX & SMH are trading in the range even after the ISM report.
Enjoy the afternoon and the basket ball game (if you watch), ALL
~~~
Wishing "GOOD LUCK" to Florida Gators for the game tonight.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/02/sports/ncaabasketball/02buckeyes.html?8dpc
CSCO & SPX COT:
ajtj commented on CSCO reporting on May 8 as a pivotal event as well as the May Fed meeting. A very good thought.
My comments on CSCO and SPX COT:
CSCO remained in a trading range, 17-22, for two years from Jul 2004 to Jul 2006. During that time, most of analysts and market participants abandoned CSCO as a bellwether stock. I think that it was a management change when CEO Chambers changed his position or responsibility in the company which sparked the rally after higher earning guidance pushing the stock to breakout level above 22. Since then it ran to retest the Jan 2004 high near at 28 during Jan 2007. So far, CSCO is showing “3yr Cyclical” price performance. It is now trading with a “Round Top” formation since Jan 2007 top with a support at 25. It already established ST downtrend formation.
SPX COT
Large speculators are net long since March double bottom and commercials decreased the risk since Feb 2007 high.
Commercials reduced the risk hedge as we can see that Commercial net-short positions are smaller since 3/20/07 after the “double bottom” suggesting that Commercials do not see a significant market sell-off.
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
Hi AJTJ,
Thanks for your comment on CSCO. I agree with your comment that CSCO earning and the Fed announcement will likely be the catalyst for the next market direction as you noted as “a key market turn” event.
CSCO remained in a trading range, 17-22, for two years from Jul 2004 to Jul 2006. During that time, most of analysts and market participants abandoned CSCO as a bellwether stock. I think that it was a management change when CEO Chambers changed his position or responsibility in the company which sparked the rally after higher earning guidance pushing the stock to breakout level above 22. Since then it ran to retest the Jan 2004 high near at 28 during Jan 2007. So far, CSCO is showing “3yr Cyclical” price performance. It is now trading with a “Round Top” formation since Jan 2007 top with a support at 25. It already established ST downtrend formation.
I can see that large speculators are net long since March double bottom and commercials decreased the risk since Feb 2007 high.
the SPX big contract commercial traders are practically net long, which has not happened since Oct. 2005 from my memory.
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
Could you explain where you see that big contract commercial traders are net long? The chart shows Large, Small, and Commercial speculators. Are you saying “commercials” or “large speculators”? I think that you are referring to “Commercials”. It seems to me that Commercials reduced the risk hedge as we can see that Commercial net-short positions are small since 3/20/07 after the “double bottom” suggesting that Commercials do not see a significant market sell-off.
Thanks again for your excellent comments.
Market bounced off at the triangle TL supports, Qs 43.30 and SPX 1416 as shown on the 60m charts after the weaker ISM report at 8:30am. SPX 1425 +/- and Qs 43.60 are intraday resistance which we need to see trading above the resistance for further upside price actions.
Qs intraday shows a resistance at 43.80 and then 44 which is the triangle down TL. The gap resistance which was the last intra high was at 44.44 which I do anticipate that Qs will trade above it to close the run-away gap. SPX 1425 is intraday resistance and 1430 down TL resistance. Unlike Qs-NASDAQ, SPX and DOW do not have "Runaway" gap; however, as we can see the Qs-NASDAQ gaps were served as resistance for "double bottom" and "W" formations.
NASDAQ 2440 is a resistance and 2460 which was the late March '07 high at where Nov-Dec 2006 peaks were.
Market actions have not negated the "Breakout Retest" scenario which is filling the gap, retesting the Feb '07 high, and possibly making new highs. As of today, the "Breakout Retest" scenario is valid.
Holiday trading Light Volumes during this 4 trading-day week, I expect.
We had relatively light volumes during the last week as well.
Any good news? ISM # was weaker than anticipated, so now we are seeing market pulling back after the report.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070402/markets_stocks.html?.v=8
Like I am looking for a directional confirmation, many are either with short or in cash looking for a directional confirmation. Of course, I was expecting a "Breakout Retest" Scenario, but as we heard eco #, it wasn't encouraging. However, the "Breakout Retest" scenario is not negated as of now.
Qs and SPX, trading above the supports which I commented during the last week. As noted, breaking the support is bearish. Market is trading with the Triangle formation as S/R as shown on 60m charts.
At this point, I remain cautious.
AAPL is trading at 93.96 in premarket with a news - AAPL/EMI.
Trading above 94 +/- resistance will target to the recent top near at 98, Jan 2007.
up/downgrades
LINKS
Yahoo Market News || World Market || Pivot Calc || Yahoo Finance || Sentiment Trader || StockCharts || PowerShares
Yahoo A/D || Yahoo Indices || Earning Calendar || Eco Calendar || Splits || StockMaven || CBS up/down || FOMC
SeasonalChart || Bloomberg || Trader's Almanac || Option Vol
ISM/SMH, Asia & Euro markets are moderately positive.
ISM number at 10 AM will likely move market.
$SOX is trading in a trading range as we discussed SMH.
While China $SSEC has shown bullish price actions finishing the day with 2% gain, Japan $NIKK performed opposite 1.5% loss. This could be viewed as $NIKK perceives China as economic competitor in exporting to U.S., but of course there are many other factors impacting the economies of Asian countries. $NIKK is also trading near the recent high, though.
We have a shorten week with Good Friday.
Oversea markets are trading positive.
I commented on $SSEC trading at 15yr Resistance, 3050, and noted that it was breaking out from the resistance. I also noted that $SSEC and $KOSPI are showing Asian Bull market actions.
It is now trading 3200.
S. Korean market, $KOSPI, looks like it will break out soon. Alerted that it is trading near at the two year resistance. While $SSEC has broken out to upside, $KOSPI is yet to breakout.
Not sure what it is about today... but this picture is a good one.
Internet, COT & PF charts:
Good that you are pointing out COT chart. As you might have noticed, I have posted the chart on my website as shown below. It is a good thing that you are posting the comments since I am still getting used to getting familiar with iHub environment and traders-talk. Each of the website uses different links to post charts. They are all different, so I need to modify for each website.
http://www.trend-signals.com/Comments/2007/COT.htm
PF Chart:
If you could also focus on PF charts, it will be great since I don't take a look at PF. Please post your readings on PF charts. I know that some do favor PF over other TA readings, but I do not use PF, but I am interested in certain PF patterns. When scanning stocks, I use PF formation scan; then check it with normal TA. Nice that you like PF.
SMH:
Yes, SMH is staying in a trading range for several months and when it breaks out from the range, it will make a stronger move.
I am also changing computers, so it takes time to link those together as well as visiting other states. So, I will be busy and hope that you are keeping your good eyes on markets and post comments.
FUTURES:
Futures, indeed, have turned positive since I posted last time as I can see that it is positive now.
INTERNET:
BIDU is trading at an important support.
AMZN is also trading in a range and closed at lower range.
GOOG is trading at 50ma resistance. Breaking above the resistance will be favoring it to retrace to the top.
YHOO is trading at Symmetrical Triangle resistance; trading at an important S/R. Good to watch for a breakout.
TWX closed at a support with a big head & Shoulder formation.
Breaking the current support will be bearish.
Hi ajtj,
Yes, great to meet interesting people like you. It seems like you really have done those. I can say the same thing as well.
As for the market, I was bearish as well, but have sensed extreme reading of market sentiment. Actually, I just made a comment on the subject under the following link.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18391791
VIX/VXN is trading at normal range. As noted earlier, the extreme reading of VIX/VXN was due to much anticipated sell-off instead of extreme fear showing uncertainty. I also noted anticipated sell-off and also found out, as one trader informed about it, the sell-off date of 2/27/07 was well-advertised. Also the Greenspan remark which was used to sell-off by $SSEC to lock in profit at the 15 years resistance was a good excuse.
As you noted, May 8 is Bradley turn date which I need to check because I am on my lap top so my regular files are on my other computers.
For future reference, love to hear your interesting stories which you experienced when appropriate since you are an older member knows the iHub environment better than I am. I am not so sure what is acceptable or not even though I know the general rules of postings. If you post elsewhere when you are on casual topics I may try to get involved as long as I feel comfortable with the board environment. True about vacation since when we enjoy trading, it is really what we are interested in, not a work. Also, we can do trading anywhere around the world.
Enjoy the evening & All the best
MOT, AMAT, XNLX
MOT is trading at RST - Megaphone formation support and 200ma. Breaking the support is very bearish.
AMAT is trading with Sym Triangle Formation. Breaking lower support will be targeting 17.
XLNX had a false breakout from Sym triangle upper TL. Will be looking for another breakout attempt.
Hi ajti99,
Thanks for your reply. I have followed your suggestion, but I haven't received a reply to my post. So, I guess that I have found most of available instruction to posting messages on ihub boards.
I saw that you are going on a vacation, and wish you that you have a great fun and relaxing time. Well, I am guessing that you are going on a vacation.
With regard to market direction, it seems like you are bearish on the market. I am flexible as to market direction at this point, but I commented on the "Breakout Retest" scenario. We will know soon enough.
Best wishes
~~~
A couple of charts:
SMH is showing 7-mo trading range.
GOOG is trading at 50ma resistance.
A/D - VIX/VXN - SMH - GOOG
JT, We will know soon enough. And the statistical analysis certainly helps since the probability of outcome favors.
VIX/VXN is trading at normal range. As noted earlier, the extreme reading of VIX/VXN was due to much anticipated sell-off instead of extreme fear showing uncertainty. I also noted anticipated sell-off and also found out, as one trader informed about it, the sell-off date of 2/27/07 was well-advertised. Also the Greenspan remark which was used to sell-off by $SSEC to lock in profit at the 15 years resistance was a good excuse.
The modern computer program trading certainly created higher volatility as many hedge fund traders were selling at the same time. To simply state, many were watching markets with one figure at the sell key - ready to push - when they heard the news, many pushed the sell-key at the same time.
A/D is improving as 10 dma has traded to higher range than Jan 2007. Negative market breadth which I noted during Dec '06 - Feb '07 is worked off, and now it is improving.
Well, if you break your own rules, you know what to do.
SMH is trading in a range, as shown on the chart, for several month.
By the way, I am keeping the first 8 letters on the subject so that I can see it since I am not yet paid subscriber with iHub which I can use "search" function.
Since I am subscribed to stockcharts.com and my website, etc., I want to see how this works out. In the meantime, I want to be efficient as possible.
If you would like to let us know, what is your specialty in the field, science which you have noted. Of course, you do exercise a care about posting personal info.
Futures are relatively flat.
Have wonderful evening & All the best
~~~
GOOG is trading at 50ma resistance.
Hi Matt and ALL,
Thank you all for your helpful comments.
As always, your insightful comments with co-operative approch are valuable for those who are willing to learn and to understand.
As for me, I am trying to get familiar with posting on iHub with advanced feature directions which might not have posted on the iHub board as I am trying to find the instruction.
Could you please let me know if there is other features which I can use in addition to basic features of linking, hyperlinking, bold, italic, sounds, pre, format, etc.?
Again, thank you, in advance, for your comments and wish you are enjoying the weekend.
All the best
~~~
Posted by: ajtj99
In reply to: __1Best__ who wrote msg# 101927
Date: 3/31/2007 9:51:01 AM
Post #
1Best, there's a stockcharts support board on IHUB that could give you some ideas regarding stockcharts postings, but it appears you have that down.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1277
Otherwise, Matt or Meatloaf at the Q&A board could help you with your inquiries
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/Board.asp?Board_ID=504
Coming to a Pivotal Week:
Markets bounced off from the important supports which I noted during the last several days since 3/21. Since market has not shown strong move to upside breaking above the upper TL, we need to see directional confirmation.
Trading volumes show normal profit taking and consolidation. Market closed with "doji" signaling indecision and also indicators are mixed. At this point, we need to see directional confirmation during the next week.
Market Correction is coming, this time for real
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=68491
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/06246766-dd93-11db...0b5df10621.html
Note that his projection is vague as he is referring the correction will occurring
QUOTE: “I believe that over the next 12 months a market correction will occur and this time it will be a real correction….. Market developments in the past few weeks should be seen as a warning. What has been evident for a number of months is that, in the US, we are seeing lagging inflation and slower growth. Whether this means that we are going to have to fend off recessionary tendencies is not yet clear. However, what is clear to me is that in the next year a material correction in the markets will occur.”
Comment: This is nothing new since we knew about the housing market bubble and correction as I commented during “Jan-Mar 2006” for the forthcoming housing market correction and its impact on the economy. That was 15 months ago when I projected the correction by which we now see the impact through “subprime market meltdown” which I forecasted during “Jan-Mar 2006” market comment posts. Having said that, I do not believe that housing market is bottomed; but, we will see a meaning bottom and confirmation of housing market recovery within 12-24 months. I do realize that R.E. market cycle is longer than other soft financial market cycle such as financial instrument markets. LIQUIDITY: Recently I noted about the liquidity which is an old news; thus, it is not a new event which market is now pricing in. YEN CARRY TRADES: Again, this is not a new news which market has priced in since May 2006 which US and International markets initially reacted to the BOJ comment at the same time when Dr Bernanke and other Fed speakers were inducing a market correction. At that time, market corrections which we have seen in financial markets – US and International markets – were from 8% - 30%.
Conclusion: In summary, I do believe that we will see a correction more than what we have seen during the 2/27/07 – 3/14/07 which was 5 – 10%; however, at this point, as I commented before, “Retest of Breakout” Scenario which was supported by the Double Bottom actions on 3/5/07 and 3/14/07 has not been negated. Therefore, as of today, the “Retest of Breakout” Scenario is valid.
EQUITY - FINANCIAL MARKET CORRECTION:
I consider a “meaningful correction” in given context within which we are viewing market condition and phase. What I am referring to is “Given Market Condition” which we need to consider because market does not always follow predictable pattern which we have observed based on the historical patterns and data analysis, such as “Time & Price Correction” which is a typical 10% and 3-5 months.
NEW POLICY ON TRADE DEFICIT:
Taking corrective actions on "Trade Deficit" such as we heard on Friday, 3/30, is a good news as I noted. I consider it as a positive development which I commented during Jan - Feb 2007 when I noted various charts showing increased trade deficit trend. The recent trade deficit is unprecedented high number in our history. Since the trade agreement can't be accomplished by mutual consent, we need to take action as we have seen on 3/30. This development is positive for LT US Economy even though WS can make a point that it is not good for WS. It may not good for particular companies which do international trades, but is good for US workers. The new trade policy may lead the current trade deficit trend to equal trades which are balanced, not trade deficit for us and trade surplus for them.
COMMENT ON RATIO CHARTS AND ANALYSIS:
The ratio analysis is valid when it is used in the context given in market condition. I posted many ratio charts in the past. Ratio charts can be in combinations of many different indices, breadth, markets, etc.. Recently, I have noticed that some traders are using ratio charts to time the market turns after observing other traders presentation of the market analysis based on the analysis which was successful.
I also presented Breadth and ratio analysis as a part of market analysis and timing studies in the past. The variations of ratio analysis and timing are many such as various $RH__:$CPC, $various $BP___:$VIX, $NASI:$VIX, $NASI:$VXN, $GOLD:$ HUI, $COMPQ:$INDU, etc. For those who are in the market long enough and have done due-diligence have come across those presentations. I came across that many traders are using the same indicators when they noticed successful methods which have shown effective market turn. I would like to note when most of traders are using the same methods, such as $NASI turning signals, the signals will be ineffective since everyone can’t be right at the same time. Having said that, during the middle of a trend, majority traders are correct since the new trend is developing until it reaches at a point when it is about to reverse. To apply this concept, the question which we are addressing right now it whether the ST/IT trend is reversed.
TREND CHANGE:
VST-ST (very short term) Trend was reversed as we have seen during 2/27-3/14 and reversed again on 3/14 with “Double Bottom” and “W” formation. Now, we want to know whether ST-IT trend is changed.
We now need to see a directional confirmation during the next week.
wonderB, GOLD & new policy on Trade Deficit,
In LT, specifically during the last few years, the GOLD trend and SPX trend was similar even though the performance was not.
There are many factors impact gold performance based on various speculations such as currency valuation, deficit, inflation, gold demand, geopolitical risk, etc. When I consider the current situation, I think that the current trend of Gold:SPX performance is reasonable. I will elaborate on this subject in detail later.
re: New policy on Trade Deficit
What do you think about the development?
While some are taking the news as negative thinking that it is negatively impact corporate profits and future growth, but I consider the new policy on trade deficit/trade balance as positive because any extreme development will eventually do harm to what was intended for good purpose.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18384926
Have a Wonderful Day
New Policy on TRADE DEFICIT: Market Reaction to the news
Thanks, JT
You certainly make good points. Please let us know when you have specific sectors which you are studying and alert us with your observation.
I briefly noted on new policy on Trade Deficit on Friday.=
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17871535
http://www.trend-signals.com/
Taking corrective actions on "Trade Deficit" such as we heard on Friday, 3/30, is a good news as I noted. I consider it as a positive development which I commented during Jan - Feb 2007 when I noted various charts showing increased trade deficit trend. The recent trade deficit is unprecedented high number in our history. Since the trade agreement can't be accomplished by mutual consent, we need to take action as we have seen on 3/30. This development is positive for LT US Economy even though WS can make a point that it is not good for WS. It may not good for particular companies which do international trades, but is good for US workers. The new trade policy may lead the current trade deficit trend to equal trades which are balanced, not trade deficit for us and trade surplus to them.
~~~
The question is how market will react to the news.
While some are taking the news as negative thinking that it is negatively impact corporate profits and future growth, but I consider the new policy on trade deficit/trade balance as positive because any extreme development will eventually do harm to what was intended for good purpose.
What do you think about the development? Anyone?
Have a great Sunday
Best
Hi ajtj99 - board members,
Thanks, I appreciate your thoughts on Qs and markets. Qs formed symmetrical triangle as shown on the 60m chart, so, am waiting for a confirmation.
Actually, you are one of the oldest members, if I may ask you a question, could you tell me where I can get posting advanced features on iHub? Such as font color, size, html codifications, etc? I saw simple Text features such as bold, italic, underline, etc; but, haven't seen other advanced feature. wonderbuy helped me with posting links with hyperlinks, but I am wondering whether other features are available? Could you direct me?
Thanks in advance and have a great weekend... ALL
Good morning, market formed "Symmetrical Triangles" as shown on the intraday charts.
Markets bounced off from the important supports which I noted during the last several days since 3/21. Since market has not shown strong move to upside breaking above the upper TL, we need to see directional confirmation.
Trading volumes show normal profit taking and consolidation. Market closed with "doji" signaling indecision and also indicators are mixed. At this point, we need to see directional confirmation during the next week.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18334432
Have a nice weekend, ALL
CHART FORMATIONS:
HIGHER-Low Intraday Market Action - so far, so good:
The volatility created nice volume. Qs traded to anticipated lower range making higher low as shown on the 60m chart.
So far, I consider intra market action as expected, but of course, if I see selling into close, it is bearish.
But I anticipate, as noted before, bounce into close, making nice HIGHER-LOW as shown on 60m chart.
"Trade news on China".
I consider it as a positive development which I commented before that we need to do something about negative trade trend, i.e. trade deficit. Well, since the trade agreement can't be done by mutual consent, we need to take action... which is a positive note for LT US development while WS can make a point that it is not good for WS. Well, it may not for good for particular companies which do international trades, but is good for US workers. OK, this is also debatable, so, I will make this simple. In conclusion, I think that it is a good development. Hopefully, maybe we will have equal trades which are balanced, not trade deficit for us and trade surplus to them.
--------
CLOSE is really what does matter and SO FAR SO GOOD.
As shown on the Qs 60m chart, market made HIGHER/LOW which is expected.
Of course, CLOSE is important.
Bulls need to join
We now have nice volume. The drop created more volume inducing volatility.
The drop range was expected as I noted during premarket.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...age_id=18349306
All right.. Resistance Qs 43.87 R at 30m holding up.
PREMARKET COMMENT:
Qs resistance as shown on the 60m chart is around 44 and support at 43.50-43.30 +/- which were the supports yesterday to continue upside momentum. Market will react to 10am Eco #.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...age_id=18341441
HIGHER-Low Intraday Market Action - so far, so good:
The volatility created nice volume. Qs traded to anticipated lower range making higher low as shown on the 60m chart.
So far, I consider intra market action as expected, but of course, if I see selling into close, it is bearish.
But I anticipate, as noted before, bounce into close, making nice HIGHER-LOW as shown on 60m chart.
"Trade news on China".
I consider it as a positive development which I commented before that we need to do something about negative trade trend, i.e. trade deficit. Well, since the trade agreement can't be done by mutual consent, we need to take action... which is a positive note for LT US development while WS can make a point that it is not good for WS. Well, it may not for good for particular companies which do international trades, but is good for US workers. OK, this is also debatable, so, I will make this simple. In conclusion, I think that it is a good development. Hopefully, maybe we will have equal trades which are balanced, not trade deficit for us and trade surplus to them.
--------
CLOSE is really what does matter and SO FAR SO GOOD.
As shown on the Qs 60m chart, market made HIGHER/LOW which is expected.
Of course, CLOSE is important.
Bulls need to join
We now have nice volume. The drop created more volume inducing volatility.
The drop range was expected as I noted during premarket.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...age_id=18349306
All right.. Resistance Qs 43.87 R at 30m holding up.
PREMARKET COMMENT:
Qs resistance as shown on the 60m chart is around 44 and support at 43.50-43.30 +/- which were the supports yesterday to continue upside momentum. Market will react to 10am Eco #.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...age_id=18341441
All right.. Resistance Qs 43.87 R at 30m holding up.
Light volume again.
PREMARKET COMMENT:
Qs resistance as shown on the 60m chart is around 44 and support at 43.50-43.30 +/- which were the supports yesterday to continue upside momentum. Market will react to 10am Eco #.
Qs bounced off from 43.55 support which I noted.
It is 5m action which market pulled back - general market action.
AMAT is in a SYM triangle pattern.
BRCM up 2% with the sector upgrade to "Overweight".
Internal- breadth is good.
Market Internals
Issues NYSE Nasdaq
Advancing 1,889 1,626
Declining 1,088 1,105
Unchanged 154 152
Total 3,131 2,883
Ratio
Advancers to Decliners 1.74 1.47
Yes, also someone else made a fortune... that is the risk with small cap stocks with higher volatility.
It is important to take financial risk which one can be responsible.
Market is staying in NR so far with a positive note with EOM/EOQ actions as well as the comments which I noted EOD market action.
Semi sector is upgraded to "Overweight"
BRCM is responding to the upgrade.
Certainly we don't need anymore of bad news, but like to hear good news.
ALTR 20.02 -0.08 -0.40%
AMAT 18.37 -0.13 -0.70%
AMD 13.04 -0.04 -0.31%
BRCM 31.67 0.62 2.00%
IFX 15.54 0.09 0.58%
INTC 19.05 -0.04 -0.21%
KLAC 53.42 -0.05 -0.09%
LLTC 31.42 -0.05 -0.16%
MRVL(E) 16.97 0.20 1.19%
MU 12.05 0.21 1.77%
MXIM(E) 29.62 -0.12 -0.40%
NSM 24.07 0.24 1.01%
NVLS 32.42 0.22 0.68%
TER 16.47 0.03 0.18%
TXN 30.37 -0.02 -0.07%
XLNX 25.61 0.08 0.31%
Premarket action to 8:30am Eco number is relatively flat and mute, but the initial reaction was to upside since, as noted yesterday, market bias was to upside with intraday oversold condition. I monitor Qs for market direction since market relatively - SPX, DOW and NAS - moves in syn.
Qs resistance as shown on the 60m chart is around 44 and support at 43.50-43.30 +/- which were the supports yesterday to continue upside momentum. Market will react to 10am Eco #.
Comment on DNDN: DNDN is hot stock this morning with a news - up 250%. It has about 30% short interest.
SMH closed at 200dma at support and at lower LT trading range with 33 as a major support; therefore, it is good to watch for a directional confirmation.
Best of luck to ALL
Hi WB, thanks. Market will react to eco numbers this morning. Particularly to Consumer Sentiment/Personal income.
Premarket is flat going into the morning eco numbers.
I posted your post along with gold charts.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18339987
Inverted Yield Curve number is coming down lately after the bad news since market discounts future price actions.
Good luck
good morning, Eco numbers - Consumer sentiment 10am, Personal income 8:30, NAPA, construction spending
Premarket is flat going into eco numbers.
Good comments. I will take a look at XAU:SOX ratio chart, however, there is a trading signal used by many traders on XAU:GOLD. I will post my comment on the XAU:GOLD ratio.
If you find good tradable signals, please let us know.
Of course, GLD is a good one to trade on GOLD/XAU moves.
wonderbuy's post is a good one which other posters discussed on other boards.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18338347
Working on transition.
Have a great day and Good trades
JAMESTOWN COMMENT:
Gold at one point during the day gold was down 10 bucks and did manage to recover one half of that loss. Nonetheless, the XAU came back with a vengence to be down very modestly considering the fall in the physical. The short term XAU charts looks very similar to the rest of the market. And I have always wondered if there is a relationship between the XAU and SOX. But ratio charts are hard for me to understand.
Great charts on GOLD and comments. One could even draw a trendline on the weekly further back in time to see the progressive uptrend that is still intact and we are riding just above it at current levels. If I am not mistaken, physical is on the verge of a sustained upswing starting now. And it can be independent of the trend in the US dollar. Or so I believe.
Trading the XAU can be nerve racking but once the uptrend has been confirmed you have to hold on fast. Then again no matter what position one has, money management is paramount.
Inverted Yield Curve ratio is coming down from the high reading after the recent housing market bad news.
Hi WB, yes, AAPL formed "hammer" at the breakout SUPPORT which is a good support area.
I hope that you had a good day.
Best wishes
This is my market thoughts:
The last five trading days and today market actions are exactly what I have anticipated as commented on March 21 rally after the Fed announcement -- a period of mild profit taking and consolidation days in low volume. Also noted on Qs support 43.30 +/- and SPX 1410 +/- as the reversal points at which we saw today that market has reversed going into close.
MARKET DIRECTION
Let's recap the recent market actions. Market sold off on 2/27/07, then formed "Double Bottom" with "W" formation. This is based on "Breakout Retest" scenario which I commented when i called the double bottom which the call is based on other market analysis, but the strongest technical factor for the reversal is "Breakout Retest" Scenario. The scenario suggests that we will see "Filling the run-away" gap, and possible "Making new highs". As I noted earlier, today was technically Pivotal Day for the market. The pivotal day when Bulls and Bears fought to gain their grounds and so far bulls won the battle as we see that market was supported at the aforementioned major support area.
We can say that the reversal was due to the EOM/EOQ market actions; but, also, the reversal was technically forecasted 5-trading days ago. We now have confirmed a reversal at the targets, i.e. Qs 43.30 +/- and SPX 1410 +/-, "Breakout Retest" scenario to fill the run-away gap and possibly making new high can be anticipated.
BREAKOUT RETEST
We now have two major views for future market actions as I commented on 3/11, "Breakout Retest" vs "ECM cycle top as of 2/27/07". http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=68420
While I do respect the recent pull back from 2/27/07 as I predicted the sell-off as well, I do not believe that we have the LT top as of that day. This belief is consistent with my forecast to SPX 1550 +/- during Jun-Jul 2006 that we will see a retest of the Mar 2000 high. I am not saying that we do not have the LT top as of 2/27/07 because I forecasted that we will see SPX 1550 +/- during this year, but it is because, based on my TA analysis and market sentiment, we do not have the LT top. I stated the reasons for my belief that we will see new high toward SPX 1550 +/- which I will state again in the future, but for now, market has not negated the SPX 1550 +/- target. I know that we have problems with inflation, Iran issues, subprime market, etc.; but, considering all the factors, unless proven otherwise, we will see higher than SPX 1460.53 which is the intra high of 2/20/07.
INTRADAY MARKET ACTIONS
As commented during premarket, the morning gap is faded trading to lower. I also noted that intraday pivot was 43.68 and when it broke the pivot, it traded to targeted Qs 43.30. Even though Qs were breaking noted Qs 43.30, market was oversold. As I noted that it is building a base, we saw market was trading higher into close. The link below is real time calls. http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=68412
As noted earlier before the reversal at 2:30 PM into closing, intraday is oversold; thus, I am anticipating further price advancement.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18334432
Yes! Certainly market reversed at the right time into close. When market broke Qs 43.30, I was cautious; but, I was looking for a reversal into close. Certainly was concerned that we might see a sell-off into close. Of course, since market was oversold and it is EOM/EOQ, I was expecting a reversal into close though.
GOLD looks like forming a possible sym triangle?
Nice observation on GOLD, thanks.
Could elaborate on "considering physical gold was down"...
I like your energizer bunny part... in other words, it is resilient.
Have a nice night and ENJOY
OIL/USO certainly performed very well. OIL breaking above the resistance & USO heading to 55.
TRAN is trading at lower TL support.
These factors are not good for market, i.e. higher oil prices, but since markets have oil-based companies, it will help general market performance even though it will eventually hurt consumer pocket for middle class. I heard more people is riding public transportation instead of driving cars to work which is a good trend. We need to develop solar and turbine energy resources. We invented those, but we didn't develop them as much as we should have. So now, euro and Japan is ahead of us in that field.
Have a good trading and enjoy.
Market Commentary
The last five trading days and today market actions are exactly what I have anticipated as commented on March 21 rally after the Fed announcement -- a period of mild profit taking and consolidation days in low volume. Also noted on Qs support 43.30 +/- and SPX 1410 +/- as the reversal points at which we saw today that market has reversed going into close.
MARKET DIRECTION
Let's recap the recent market actions. Market sold off on 2/27/07, then formed "Double Bottom" with "W" formation. This is based on "Breakout Retest" scenario which I commented when i called the double bottom which the call is based on other market analysis, but the strongest technical factor for the reversal is "Breakout Retest" Scenario. The scenario suggests that we will see "Filling the run-away" gap, and possible "Making new highs". As I noted earlier, today was technically Pivotal Day for the market. The pivotal day when Bulls and Bears fought to gain their grounds and so far bulls won the battle as we see that market was supported at the aforementioned major support area.
We can say that the reversal was due to the EOM/EOQ market actions; but, also, the reversal was technically forecasted 5-trading days ago. We now have confirmed a reversal at the targets, i.e. Qs 43.30 +/- and SPX 1410 +/-, "Breakout Retest" scenario to fill the run-away gap and possibly making new high can be anticipated.
BREAKOUT RETEST
We now have two major views for future market actions as I commented on 3/11, "Breakout Retest" vs "ECM cycle top as of 2/27/07". http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=68420
While I do respect the recent pull back from 2/27/07 as I predicted the sell-off as well, I do not believe that we have the LT top as of that day. This belief is consistent with my forecast to SPX 1550 +/- during Jun-Jul 2006 that we will see a retest of the Mar 2000 high. I am not saying that we do not have the LT top as of 2/27/07 because I forecasted that we will see SPX 1550 +/- during this year, but it is because, based on my TA analysis and market sentiment, we do not have the LT top. I stated the reasons for my belief that we will see new high toward SPX 1550 +/- which I will state again in the future, but for now, market has not negated the SPX 1550 +/- target. I know that we have problems with inflation, Iran issues, subprime market, etc.; but, considering all the factors, unless proven otherwise, we will see higher than SPX 1460.53 which is the intra high of 2/20/07.
INTRADAY MARKET ACTIONS
As commented during premarket, the morning gap is faded trading to lower. I also noted that intraday pivot was 43.68 and when it broke the pivot, it traded to targeted Qs 43.30. Even though Qs were breaking noted Qs 43.30, market was oversold. As I noted that it is building a base, we saw market was trading higher into close. The link below is real time calls. http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=68412
As noted earlier before the reversal at 2:30 PM into closing, intraday is oversold; thus, I am anticipating further price advancement.
Pivotal day with Qs 43.30 +/- and SPX 1410
CLOSE - we need to see positive price action into close to see future positive price actions.
Market intraday is oversold. We have selling in light volume.
Well, we would wonder where are all the Bulls looking for EOM action, JT.
correction: Just broke Qs 43.22 and OIL over $66 showing very high speculative risk premium.
Qs trading at support as noted earlier that we will likely see 43.30 +/-.
Close is important to support this level for any positive price actions; otherwise, it is quite bearish.
Oil is trading above 66 which is not good for market.
USO is trading close to 55 target.