Monday, April 02, 2007 7:01:14 PM
CSCO & SPX COT:
ajtj commented on CSCO reporting on May 8 as a pivotal event as well as the May Fed meeting. A very good thought.
My comments on CSCO and SPX COT:
CSCO remained in a trading range, 17-22, for two years from Jul 2004 to Jul 2006. During that time, most of analysts and market participants abandoned CSCO as a bellwether stock. I think that it was a management change when CEO Chambers changed his position or responsibility in the company which sparked the rally after higher earning guidance pushing the stock to breakout level above 22. Since then it ran to retest the Jan 2004 high near at 28 during Jan 2007. So far, CSCO is showing “3yr Cyclical” price performance. It is now trading with a “Round Top” formation since Jan 2007 top with a support at 25. It already established ST downtrend formation.
SPX COT
Large speculators are net long since March double bottom and commercials decreased the risk since Feb 2007 high.
Commercials reduced the risk hedge as we can see that Commercial net-short positions are smaller since 3/20/07 after the “double bottom” suggesting that Commercials do not see a significant market sell-off.
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
ajtj commented on CSCO reporting on May 8 as a pivotal event as well as the May Fed meeting. A very good thought.
My comments on CSCO and SPX COT:
CSCO remained in a trading range, 17-22, for two years from Jul 2004 to Jul 2006. During that time, most of analysts and market participants abandoned CSCO as a bellwether stock. I think that it was a management change when CEO Chambers changed his position or responsibility in the company which sparked the rally after higher earning guidance pushing the stock to breakout level above 22. Since then it ran to retest the Jan 2004 high near at 28 during Jan 2007. So far, CSCO is showing “3yr Cyclical” price performance. It is now trading with a “Round Top” formation since Jan 2007 top with a support at 25. It already established ST downtrend formation.
SPX COT
Large speculators are net long since March double bottom and commercials decreased the risk since Feb 2007 high.
Commercials reduced the risk hedge as we can see that Commercial net-short positions are smaller since 3/20/07 after the “double bottom” suggesting that Commercials do not see a significant market sell-off.
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
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