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PLEASE READ AND COMMENT ON: this is quite long but I think it's well worth the read...
MY JEFF/Urban/Naked Short theory:
First, we need to go back about a year:
1) Jul/03 - CMKM files "Certification and Notice of Termination of Registration" Form 15-12G with SEC. CMKM becomes a non-reporting company.
- What does this mean? Well, for one it could have been a ploy by Urban to cover up heavy dilution, and insider option/warrant grants and thus make this one of the largest pump & dumps in pink sheet history. Personally, I don’t believe that Urban could perpetrate such a scheme and have the bravado to have personal meetings with shareholders, advertise the company through a racing team, and get one of the top Securities firms on board. IMO, it was for another purpose…to disguise his actions from the MMs or hedge funds he believed were naked shorting this and in doing so brought it down to the .0001 x .0002
2) Aug/03 - CMKM announces share dividend payout for CMI.
Aug/03 - CMKM announces 2 for 1 foward stock split.
Urban’s first attempts at reconciling the Naked Short position…either there was none at the time or they completed disregarded the CMI dividend and their obligation to either obtain CMI shares or cover CMKM shares.
This is where the trading begins to get interesting, especially the volume…looking at a 2 year chart we see that beginning the end of August/Early September 2003 trading volume picks up immensely and not just because of the 2 for 1 split. It goes from 100’s of millions to billions of shares traded every day.
3)
Sept/03 - CMKM announces six billion shares are being retired back to treasury.
Nov/03 - CMKM announces over twenty billion shares have been retired back to treasury to date.
Dec/03 - CMKM announces 16.5 billion shares officially retired to treasury.
September is exactly the time that the volume picks up…probably because of all these shares being returned to the treasury. Now if the volume suddenly surged from millions to billions and its all buy volume (the company buying back its stock) then how come the price of the stock went down to NO BID x .0001 ?
Urban thinks to himself - what the hell is going on here? I’m buying tons and tons of this stock and the price is going down?
Now Urban being experienced in the market, and probably having friends who deal in securities starts to realize what’s going on…His stock is being cellar boxed by offshore hedge funds naked shorting it like crazy(thinking it will go bankrupt, underestimating the company and the FALC region).
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2543926
It is around this time that Urban starts to concoct a plan…start buying the naked shorts, pull certs, and return them to the treasury(thus the buy backs in November/Deceember). He probably uses a MM to do this…And that MM was most likely JEFF. People who have been in this stock for a while remember JEFF being a large net buyer over the last year at the basement level(.0001)
The dilution issue: If you believe that Urban used this time to dilute than he was doing it while he was retiring shares…a little counter intuitive and if proven is grounds for showing that he in fact manipulated this stock by releasing info about a buyback while diluted this stock into oblivion. Thus, if this was proven I’d call this a scam and Urban a scam artist. BUT, I do not believe this happened because 1) I think Urban is a fairly respectable person(from what others have said) and 2) he could make a lot more money from concocting a plan to elicit one of the largest short squeezes in history.
Now, some will argue that he has been Using JEFF recently to dilute. But this as well doesn’t make sense since JEFF has kept a strong lid on the pps…if he were diluting or dumping his own shares he would allow the pps to run up over .001(we’ve certainly had the demand to do that) and raise twice as much capital, or make twice as much money.
Now, JEFF starts buying up the basement @ .0001 or maybe even less and starts accumulating 100’s of billions of naked short shares
Just look at the volume for the last 9 months or so…it has to be a couple trillion…not saying there are that many shares out, just that a massive amount have been traded…and being that dilution doesn’t seem the likely cause, than process of elimination leaves us with the short issue.
Now Urban has bought back a decent chunk of the O/S as well as a good piece of the Naked Short shares. Remember this thing was in the cellar for almost a year and there were billions of shares being traded every day – those shares were coming from somewhere; either 1) they were coming from the treasury i.e dilution 2) they are naked short shares. It can only be one or the other; either Urban diluted this into the ground or offshore hedge-funds working together with corrupt broker/dealers have shorted this into the basement trying to bankrupt it. I geuss it’s all a matter of personal opinion. If you honestly believe Urban is a dishonest person and a scam artist and had the nerve to Issue some 450 billion shares to the general public after publicly stating he was in the process of retiring shares than this whole theory is bogus. But if you don’t believe that than the only possible alternative is a large naked short position
4) June/04 - CMKM Diamonds, Inc. Announces It Has Retained D. Roger Glenn, Partner at Edwards & Angell, LLP as Securities Counsel
June/04 - CMKM Diamonds Inc. Announces It is Retaining a Large New York Law Firm to Represent Its Interests.
June/04 - CMKM Diamonds, Inc. Announces Edwards & Angell, LLP. and CMKM Diamonds Inc. Begin Work
This is the strongest evidence to support our theory of a naked short position. CMKX is a small pink sheet company that was rumored to be a scam. It blows my mind that one of the leading securities firm, and a partner of that firm, with profound experience in securities law & corporate governance would take on a client like this. Glenn’s law firm would never allow CMKX as a client unless they had ‘something’. Something that was going to overweigh the risk of taking on a pink sheet, something that would put Angell & Edwards, as well as Roger Glenn, at the forefront of the securities world.
I believe, that Urban bought back and returned to the treasury a good deal of the O/S through JEFF and then proceeded to buy a ton of the naked short shares. Urban knows the O/S and he knows the number of naked short shares through the transfer agent who is responsible for keeping track of the company’s stock, whether in be in cert form or in a brokerage account. Now if you were planning the largest short squeeze in history, would you want to release the O/S and the NS position to the entities you will be squeezing? Of course not, that’s your ammunition, you have one up because you know both what is real and what is fake(if any)
Now, after Urban was satisfied with what he had accumulated he then went to Roger with the certs returned to the treasury, the actual O/S(from the treasury register), and the TA’s report of the number of shares held aggregate in brokerage accounts…
The T/A was reported as saying 400 billion O/S. This is probably true but may be the OUTSTANDING and not the ISSUED. If indeed there are naked shorts than the outstanding will not be the same as the issued. Because what is aggregate in our brokerage accounts is the outstanding, but it’s not necessary what the company has issued.
Once Roger looked over the evidence he realized what he had here…a chance to make history, for himself and for his firm.
5) With Glenn at his side and probably after a lot of work hunting down the MMs and broker/dealers responsible for assigning valid cusips to bogus shares, Urban in short(excuse the pun) tells them they are royally screwed.
The MMs and broker/dealers realize the situation they are in and report back to their hedge-fund clients what’s about to happen. The hedge-funds either say ‘F you’ to the MMs and broker/dealers, saying it was their responsibility to make the affirmative determinations as to the availability of the security being sold short, or they said - please help us out here.
In any event I believe there were numerous meetings with Roger, Urban and the culpable short sellers who threatened to not cover their shorts and tie the matter up in costly litigation that could easily swing the MMs way if they were to use just a smidgen of the money created from the naked short selling to hire one of the best securities team in the legal world. Urban and Glenn did not want that, it would leave the issue in limbo giving the hedge-funds the ability to cover cheaply or continue manipulating the price.
So they come to an agreement for something of a partial covering situation by the MMs at a low price, of less than .001
They would allow them to buy back say 250 billion(random geuss) shares through the market maker JEFF at a price that would suppress demand for the stock and keep the price low giving them a chance to cover and buy a good deal of retail shares as well at these low prices.
Why would Urban let them get off so easy? 1) The MMs and guilty broker/dealers most likely threatened to tie this up in court 2) He wants to raise capital for the company: .0005 - .0001 = .0004(profit) * …billion = a lot of money for expenses, explorations, buy outs, legal fees etc. 3) He needs the market makers to be on his side in the future 4) We would still have a massive short squeeze because of the drastic decrease in supply as JEFF’s shares are being bought to cover and immediately destroyed.
5) July/20 - CMKM Diamonds, Inc., to invest in Casavant International Mining, Inc. Declares Dividend For Shareholders
July/18 - CMKM Diamonds Inc. Announces Dividend to Shareholders of Record Date and Option Agreement
Now, here it is - the deadline… either the MMs weren’t covering or Urban felt they have had enough time already so he forces them to cover by August 20th.
He allows JEFF to keep selling and keep the price down so as to allow as many new investors to buy in and old longs to add to their position. Anyone buying before August 20th is going to receive a huge dividend, a dividend that sets a value to the company, forces short positions to be covered, and gives a definite timetable to what is going on.
In conclusion; this is all merely speculation and just my opinion. I was looking back on what went on and what is going on now and it just seemed to make sense…All I know is naked short selling is a problem, and has destroyed thousands of companies. All the evidence hitherto shows a large number of shares in the publics hands… a number of shares that seems so large there are only 2 possibilities
1) Urban has issued over 400 billion shares since his last filing of doing just the opposite, making this one of the largest scams/pump & dumps/corporate printing presses in the market’s history. This in turn would create a myriad of legal action against Urban, his coconspirators, and one of largest and most prominent securities law firms in the country. I feel that if the O/S of this company is anywhere near 500 Billion this is indeed one of the largest security scams in American history, and Urban is not only a scammer but a conmen among conmen. IF he has the audacity to print up over 400 billion shares after saying just the opposite, and doing it in such secrecy he is not only a conmen of Enron-like proportions, he will be one of the most hated men in America. He has met with hundreds of shareholders face to face and put his credibility on the line numerous times; if he is in fact lying to us all I surely feel bad for him, his family, and his friends, for as it stands thousands of investors have put their trust and money in his hands and if he blatantly spits in their face there will certainty be hell to pay
2) There is in fact a large naked short position that Urban, Glenn, and JEFF have been dealing with for the last year. If this is the case this stock will make history for 2 reasons 1) it will be the largest short squeeze in history, consequently creating vast amounts of wealth for CMKX investors 2) it will mark the beginning of the end of naked short selling and offshore manipulation of American companies.
Again, this is all speculation but seems to make sense to me…If in fact what I say is only partially true then we are in for one hell of a ride and all I can say is – prepare to be astonished.
PBT...continues to retrace
looking to cover some @ 10.40
just got some VIGN @ 1.39, looking to get more @ 1.38
JEFF:
I dont think anyone can argue with the fact that JEFF is the AXE here and is controlling the trading. So, what is he doing?
1) He is dumping from an offshore account a boatload of shares that were either purchased at .0001 as part of a pump & dump or were part of some dilutive scheme that Urban has concocted.(not likely IMO)
2) He is selling CMKX stock directly from the treasury. i.e dilution (eh, maybe)
4) He continues to short this stock, under the directives of large offshore hedge-funds that are disregarding the upcoming dividend and taking their chances.(I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS IS HAPPENING)
5) He is involved in a complex and unexplainable short covering manuever that we, watching L2, can not begin to explain(something like sterlings covering theory, even though that doesn't make alot of sense IMO)
5) He is dumping stock he purchased @ .0001 on pure speculation or some 'info' for an enormous profit
6) He is working with CMKX to help other short MM's and hedge funds cover their large naked short position either by selling them treasury stock(to create a ton of free cash for the company) or stock he had accumulated @ .0001(this is whats going on, IMO)
this is a great little tactic for the MM's
1) supress all buying pressure by keeping JEFF at the ask(don't know what he's doing there, but I don't feel he is shorting)
2) Absorb all the shares you can at .0004 when retail investors/traders don't see this thing moving and dump
3) Quickly pull the bids @ .0004 to indicate weakness and selling pressure
4) Sit 1 - 3 MMs on the bid @ .0004 to absorb all the weak hands dumping after they see the .0004 bid retracing
5) Drop the bid to .0003 and absorb everything you can there
6) create a huge %66 spread which makes the MMs ton of money flipping this as well as stopping retail investors from buying because of the huge spread and an immediate %40 loss if one was to buy .0005 and be forced to sell @ .0003
7) Rotate 1-3 MMs on and off of the .0004 bid to absorb more shares
I just put an order in for a couple mil more @ .0004 - lets see if it gets filled
let the MMS take this down to .0001 for all i care
think about it, if they take it to .0003 it will cost you $300 for a million shares, if worst case scenario we have 500 bil O/S
that means about 1 UCAD for every 67,000 cmkx
1 mil/67,000 = ~ 15 UCAD Shares
so for $300 you receive a $75 dividend(15 x 5.00)
AND THATS WORST CASE SCENARIO, what if O/S is 200 bil, 100bil, 40 bil etc. etc.
PBT starting to drop already...
may start to cover and take profits soon...
would like to see it break 10.30 though
shorting PBT again... upper 10's seem to be resistance
when this thing corrects it should be sginificant, this one has been tough to call so I'm playing it safe with a tight stop/loss in @ 10.90
also, trying to pick up some more vign @ 1.39... a great scalp play between 1.38 - 1.45
let's break the dividend down:
worst case scenario: 500 bil O/S
7.5 million Ucad/500 bil CMKX = ~ 1 UCAD for every 67,000 CMKX
67,000 CMKX x .0005 = $33.50
1 UCAD x ~ $5.00 = $5.00
5.00/33.50 = %15 ROI
so for every dollar you invest prior to August 20th you receive a %15 retrun on investment...not bad for a days work
HERE IS THE INTERESTING SCENARIO
Urban has bought up a majority of the O/S @ .0001 leaving
40 Billion
7.5/40 bil = ~ 1 Ucad for every 5,350 CMKX
5,350 x .0005 = 2.67
5.00/ 2.67 = %187 RETURN ON INVESTMENT
SO - worst case you will get %15 interest for holding for 3 days, or possibly upwards of %100 if O/S is low
you're right...the PR was bad news
i think 5 bil + shares a day(probably the most traded stock in the world) is plenty of volume
oh, and what was the volume on monday? almost 15 billion
plus %85 of that volume is buying
that's millions of $'s flowing into this stock every week
not bad for a pink sheet...
haha...watch Level 2 and you'll figure it out
and what about the offshore hedge funds shorting the hell out of the otcbb and pinksheets...maybe they have a vested interest in keeping the pps down
if you believe naked shorting doesn't exist, and isn't a huge problem than you're just ignorant:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2543926
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3320736
lol
i can give you a list of undervalued companies that trade @ average volume and just keep going down...
we just dont know the intrinsic value here...it's all speculation
plus, there is something happening with the MM JEFF on the ask, his relentless selling won't let this thing move, and no I don't believe he is shorting, I think he has a large order to fill
ya and about %85 of the trades were at the ask
UCAD has economically viable gold through its stake in Juina mining and viable zinc deposits... and yes, we the shareholders do now own a large part of UCAD
CMKX has found microdiamonds in its sampled kimberlite and has spotted numerous magnetic anomalies in recent areal surveys...we currently have 1.4 million acres in an area that has some of the most promising kimberlite formations in the world where over %80 of the kimberlite is diamondiferous...we are sampling in the same 'area' where Shore Gold has pulled a modest number or sizeable and colored stones out of the ground already..
so we have gold, zinc, and diamonds...
well, we're going to receive 7.5 million dividend shares which, using todays pps for ucad, is valued at over $35,000,000 for a %5 claim to our mineral rights...
100/.05 = 20 * $35,000,000 = $700,000,000
take from that what you will...
is that a particular investment strategy... owning stock in companies you feel will go 'belly up'?
Sell your shares please.
do we hold?
ya at 7.95...then went long and just got out @ 8.20
actually made a little on it...lol
short SWKS... upward trendline broken
stop/loss @ 8.00
price signals coming accross too:
11:46:54 100 0.0004 - OTCEQ_NBB
11:47:57 101 0.0004 - OTCEQ
11:49:39 102 0.0004 - OTCEQ_NBB
check out what's been going on at the bid recently:
about 750,000,000 shrs have hit the bid in the last 30 minutes and NOT ONE MM has flinched... cover cover cover
11:38:27 2000000 0.0004 - OTCEQ_NBB
11:38:27 9000000 0.0004 - OTCEQ_NBB
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some interesting things going on this morning;
so far about 2.1 billion shrs
about 550 mil @ the bid
1.55 billion @ the ask
have seen alot of 9mil blocks which I beleive, for the most part, to be intra-market maker/wholesale tades...
%65 of the total traded shrs are in that form
%85 of all trades at the bid are in that form
all i can say is...wow
almost 9 out of every 10 shares traded is at the ask and the MMs actually have the balls to increase the ask and pull their bids...
they are really trying hard to shake shares here, but they seem to be getting little to nothing
was thinking about the short situation again and...
what could we do, as shareholders to put more pressure on the short MMs(if any) and the DTC
for one, I think anyone that is long(long term) here should contact their broker about pulling certs. Even if you don't intend on doing it, the broker/dealers will begin to see a demand for the certs and this will trickle down to the MMs and the DTC...if all the shareholders out there started pulling certs we could literally 'squeeze' the DTC.
Here is the response from freetrade I got:
"They are held at the DTC in street name, however, the number of shares that you have purchased are credited to your account. You will not lose the shares is a market maker illegally shorted the stock (which has not been confirmed) and will be able to trade them at any time."
I like the little addendum in parenthesis...it hasn't been "confirmed", but I get the feeling even they think its going on...
WISI just jumped up to the bid, but he has no ask
and here comes HILL, his ask is outside @ .0007
SEAB is also on the inside, his ask is outside @ .001
I wonder what they could possibly be doing? Certainly not playing the spread...
then the theory about jeff selling legitimate shares as a conduit for cmkx is plausible...
these must be the shares he bought @ .0001 months ago
the question is - do the shares have certs?
the more he sells the more validity there is in a naked short theory... because he can only have so many shares left(he's prob sold close to 200 billion since the Roger Glenn news)
a couple other things;
shareholders who have spoke with urban say he owns 100 billions shares...
he also said there are between 75,000 and 85,000 shareholders
so (500bil - 100bil)/ 80,000 = average of 5 million sharers per shareholder
Now if you believe the average shareholder has more than 5 million shares(which is my opinion) than it basically proves there is a naked short over the possible 500 billion shares...
some more interesting data;
so far this morning(as of about 12:30)
total trades - ~ 3,550,000,000 shrs
trades at the bid of .0004 - ~ 410,000,000
trades at the ask of .0005 - ~ 3,140,000,000
I was thinking, how can we figure out what trades are retail and which are the MMs either trading between themselves, or wholesale short covering...
If you are a retail buyer how much do you purchase on a normal transaction? most likely its under 5 mil at a time so we'll use that as an arbitrary share amount that seems 'likely'. Also, I figure odd lot trades to retail as well because any wholesale buying/covering would not be broken down in odd lots(for the most part)
the total trades at the ask for blocks under 5mil shrs and odd lots over- ~1,300,000,000
the total trades at the ask for blocks over 5mil shrs - ~1,835,000,000
total shrs traded in 9mil blocks(include in the 1.835 bil) - ~1,735,000,000
I believe the majority of those 9 mil blocks to be intra-Market Maker, or some type of organized wholsale buying/covering...
I think, therefore, its safe to assume the majority of the volume is not from retail orders...
ya, didnt know he said something similar
just trying to hypothesise the reasons for the obvious market manipulation...
just an idea, but...
what if JEFF is not the MM that is short. what if some or all the MMs lined up @ the current bid of .0004 are short and are the ones needing to cover...
I've only been following this stock for about 2 months now, but does anyone know what Jeff was doing months ago, did he seem to be a net buyer or net seller?
If he was a net buyer than maybe he was acting as a conduit for Urban or the CMKX treasury to accumulate a good piece of the naked shorts and now, through the directives of the company, is allowing the other MMs to cover in an orderly fashion, so as to avoid a chaotic market and timely future litigation.
If JEFF was short then by sitting alone at the ask he would be increasing his short position and putting himself even more at risk when there is a squeeze. Right now he is a net seller and has to be selling shares from somewhere. Maybe, all these shares were purchased @ .0001 and are being sold to cover shorts and make the company/urban a %400 return in the process.
The reason why I feel this is not urban 'dumping' or 'diluting' is the fact that over the last couple of weeks JEFF has probably sold over 100 billion shares, probably a good deal more. If you are going to dilute, and raise capital, you would allow the market to push the price up and you would slowly sell into the buying pressure...in short, why receive only .0005 when you know you could get .001 per share, and raise twice as much capital. Simple, there must be a reason for keeping the stock low? Yesterday, alone he probably sold close to 10 billion shares or $5,000,000 worth of stock... if this company is going to become reporting and be forced to issue the O/S in the near future to calculate the dividend why would Urban undermine everything that has been going on here by diluting this thing into oblivion, he knows the shareholders will learn the O/S sooner or later...do you really think he is the con men among con men and is here to royally screw us all? IF he were, why would he draw so much attention to himself with a racecar, personal meetings with shareholders, cmkx hats & t-shirts, a CEO webcast with the green baron etc etc. Scammers usually work in the dark, with little to no public exposure...
who knows, just an idea
ya, shorted it @ 13 and acidentally put a limit order in instead of a stop/loss and it was immediately covered...
lost about $3/shr on that mistake...
covered pbt for a small loss....
still feel like its near the top of its range, might give it another go tomorrow.
all the more reason to go short imo... those trades above 10.05 were small retail orders...no momentum left
lowered my stop/loss to 10.20 just in case.
my morning so far:
tried to short MSO @ 12, comp froze couldnt get the order thru, it then preceded to drop to upper 10's
Shorted ntmd @ 13.05, accidentally put a limit order in instead of a stop order and was immediately covered; stock is now in the upper 11's
just went short PBT @ 10.00 with a stop/loss @ 10.35; with my luck this morning it will probably move up...
watchin pbt closely for a good point to go short...
looking for it to break thru the wall of bids @ 9.95
was gonna short MSO this morning @ 12 but my comp froze...a little pissed
picked up a couple mil more @ .0005
looks like an interesting short to me...
watch for the stoch to cross 20, macd to move over 0, and RSI to break 50
last couple times have preceded runs...
how much is everyone buying tomorrow morning?