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Kastel: NatGas Robry model
Robry model is not a prediction of actual natgas storage levels but rather an extrapolation of supply/demand to its reasonable or unreasonable conclusion. Back in April-June 2003, the model was predicting NEGATIVE natural gas, and natgas prices and stocks soared. Now the model is predicting more natgas than we have actual places to store it..., and natgas prices and stocks are sinking....
You need to read this:
"Robry Comments: This "longer-term model is not really intended as a prediction but a tool. It is an extrapolation of the supply/demand balance of the past 10 weeks, extended out with seasonal factors & degree-day-norms, to its either reasonable or unreasonable conclusion. If it gives an unreasonable conclusion (ie fall storage peak of 1200 BCF) then it is used as an indication of an impending price change for natgas which would be required to correct that unreasonable conclusion (ie higher natgas prices).
See link here:
http://amarks.homestead.com/robrymodel.html
FWIW, Alamos is my favorite (along with GBN, with CBD third) and bought more Alamos today (repurchased all my shares sold at C$1.80 plus a few more). Continue to believe that Alamos offers substantially better value than CBD... and that AGI will outperform CBD in 2004...
Current Valuations:
Alamos fully diluted market cap = $14.65 per resource ounce
Cumberland fully diluted market cap = $27.45 per resource ounce
Alamos will be in production before mid-2005 as planned, likely in 1Q 2005, feasibility study out in early 2004. It will take CBD a bit longer to get into production. My understanding/calcs show recovery rate will be 74.1% rather than 66.2% which has substantial impact on mine profitability... What I prefer about Alamos is its proven mining expertise (rather than exploration expertise only). With CBD mining expertise is largely unknown while with Alamos you have Chester Millar... Also, mining in way northern Canada will be more challenging than in Mexico... Just some thoughts, comments appreciated...
CBD is 61,380,619 fully diluted, which is what I used.
Market Cap per resource ounce = $24.93
Considering MFN is selling at $49.36 per resource ounce, CBD may have more to go, BUT I agree with you and believe AGI and GBN offer the most bang for the buck. With GBN, one has more country risk...
For the past week, gold has consistently had a spike move right at midnight, usually down. You can look at the kitco 3 day chart to see it... Wonder what that's all about, could be a kitco error...?
Ain't going to happen:
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B248256DA4001194E7?OpenDocument
"Bullis writes: The size of annual production of the VLGPs [very large gold producers], coupled with short mine life of the proven and probable reserves, presents a significant issue for those companies. Presumably, the VLGPs will have corporate exploration objectives that will include some or all of the following: finding or buying deposits that will add significantly to reserve life; ensuring that the the discovered or acquired ounces will be ‘low cost production ounces (i.e. be in the lower tier of production cost per ounce); and, also ensuring that targeted deposits will have an acceptable cost per ounce to find or acquire (i.e., having an acquisition or discovery cost below $20-30/oz of gold as either a resource or a reserve in the ground). Corporate guidelines will undoubtedly also include a minimum size of deposit as a target.”
These companies will be acquiring ounces at $35-$50/oz via acquisition, $20-$30 is just plain wishful thinking with price of gold over $350. These same reserves are valued over $150/oz on the majors metrics and this will increase as well, they can well afford to pay $35-$50/oz... and they can only hope to get these ounces "in the lower tier of production cost".
As posted previously, CBD has a combined 5M ounce resource deposit (both properties), and given its advanced stage, $50/oz would be a bargain to a major such as NEM, GG, or GFI (GFI already has adjoining CBR JV%)...
We will really start to see the junior share prices leap if and when the majors start paying above $40/reserve ounce in a flurry of deals...
CD, re: GLG, see:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1442782
FWIW, purchased an initial position in RIC today and added a few Alamos shares, which I continue to prefer over CBD, but I own both...
Calculate RIC at $49.36 per resource ounce, fully diluted... RIC is an interesting company but they must replace reserves or they will have to close one of their mines, also may have start-up problems getting another formerly closed down mine reopened... Only 760,500 resource ounces and production is currently around 100K ounces, closure of the one mine (by end of 2004 unless identify more reserves) would take production back down to 55K ounces, but RIC may well have their new/refurbished mine operating then to replace. Just took a quick review today, but RIC seems a reasonable bet at under $50 per resource ounce...
RIC=$49.36
GLG=$146.26
GG=$299.20
NEM=212.55
see additional comments at link above...
Market Cap per Resource Ounce RIC
Share Price-US$ $4.25
Warrant & Option Shares 17,993,700
Shares-Fully Diluted 76,473,225
Working Capital + Exercise 38,935,849
Market Cap-Adjusted for W/C 37,537,376
Gold Ozs/Measured & Inferred 760,500
Market Cap/Resource $49.36
Cash Costs/oz.-June 2003 $219
Market Cap per Resource Ounce GLG
Share Price-US$ $12.88
Warrant & Option Shares 133,666,378
Shares-Fully Diluted 1,721,622,949
Working Capital + Exercise 181,900,000
Market Cap-Adjusted for W/C 1,539,722,949
Gold Ozs/Measured & Inferred 10,526,980
Market Cap/Resource $146.26
Cash Costs/oz.-June 2003 $169
Market Cap per Resource Ounce GG
Share Price-US$ $13.69
Warrant & Option Shares 191,039,000
Shares-Fully Diluted 2,615,323,910
Working Capital + Exercise 326,000,000
Market Cap-Adjusted for W/C 2,289,323,910
Gold Ozs/Measured & Inferred 7,651,400
Market Cap/Resource $299.20
Cash Costs/oz.-June 2003 $75
Market Cap per Resource Ounce NEM
Share Price-US$ $38.59
Warrant & Option Shares 408,242,000
Shares-Fully Diluted 15,754,058,780
Working Capital + Exercise -1,930,303,000
Market Cap-Adjusted for W/C 17,684,361,780
Gold Ozs/Measured & Inferred 83,200,000
Market Cap/Resource $212.55
Cash Costs/oz.-June 2003 $212
sold additional 25% of MOY at US$1.24...
then sold additional 25% of MOY at US$1.27...
covered NEM short at breakeven (loss of commission...), there goes the hedge...
Have 20% of MOY left, will hold this...
At NEM = $39, value of MOY for NEM distribution alone = US$1.15
Will look to purchase MOY again if and when it starts selling to a discount to the NEM distribution...
FWIW, John Embry was not using fully diluted shares when he cited his $1.20 distribution (actually $1.13). Further, at C$1.70 there are more warrant shares that can be exercised at this price, further diluting the distribution...
Sold 30% at US$1.225, over my $1.22 ask..., thank you John Embry!
Still short NEM which hedges my position in another 25% or so...
Could not agree more, Claude is an invaluable resource in answering my fundmental questions on a gold stock... He replies timely to my stock specific questions... Well worth the subscription price to Ormetal, and getting him on your payroll...
METALLIC VENTURES INC. (MVG : TSX : C$5.35) - BUY -
12-MONTH TARGET PRICE: C$6.50
Brian Christie
Comment: Metallic Ventures announces positive production decision at Esmeralda
Metallic Ventures has announced a production decision at its Esmeralda property in Nevada. Two veins (Prospectus and Martinez) are being developed to feed an onsite 350 ton per day mill, which is currently being refurbished for startup in November 2003. The project is fully permitted and is expected to reach commercial production during the first quarter of
2004. Production is expected to be about 5,000-6,000 ounces per month, with cash costs of around US$175 per ounce. An ongoing drill program on the Prospectus vein continues to yield positive results and confirm strike and dip extensions of known ore shoots. Highlights from the drilling include: 8.5 feet grading 0.28 opt gold in hole PUG-14, 5 feet grading 0.74 opt gold and 4.0 opt silver in hole PUG-16, and 7.5 feet grading 0.36 opt gold and 3.4 opt silver in hole PUG-19. With this drilling and ongoing underground development, we expect to see a significant addition to the 92,000-ounce underground gold resource at Esmeralda, when a new calculation is completed later this year. With the production announcement, Metallic continues to deliver on its business plan. We are maintaining our BUY recommendation with a C$6.50 target price.
Sold 30% MOY via NEM short at $39.05
Gold - Turk...
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current
in regard to GBG/GBN...
Fundamentally, I think you will be okay..., IMO in 15 months this stock will be much higher, i.e. by Dec 04.
Technically, think we get a fib retrace down to $1.38 to $1.41 level.
FWIW, purchased 10% of my AGI.v back (sold 25%) at US$1.20
And another thing, if GG management was smart IMO...
They would buy Cumberland at $50/resource oz. via a pooling of interest share merger, i.e. CBD shareholders get shares of GG, for CBD's 5M mineral resource ounces (proven + inferred). That would value CBD at about US$6.00 share. It would be a win-win merger for both companies, I believe...
When your shares are selling at such a high premium such as GG, it's time to use your shares as currency to buy additional gold reserves, IMO. GG has been paying cash to earn JV interests in certain gold companies which is okay, but really believe they should be buying reserve ounces via share for share swaps... Just some thoughts...
A peek at The Gold Majors Valuations...
GLG=$148/resource oz.
GG=$299/resource oz.
NEM=$212/resource oz.
FWIW, it certainly appears to me that GLG is the undervalued major compared to GG and NEM..., but you would not know it from the last several days trading and/or the Weiss recommendation...
Now, GG should be valued higher than GLG or NEM because its cash costs are much lower and because its Red Lake reserves are likely understated (no need to prove up more reserves, enough for next 8+ years production). Nonetheless, I do not think GG will be proving up double the amount of reserves on their books from Red Lake (to justify their 2x GLG multiple), and what they do find will be at a higher cash cost... NEM has a higher valuation than GLG and this does not appear warranted either...
Not that any of you torque chasers are interested..., but if you somehow slip up and decide to invest in a major in the near furture, my opinion is GLG should outperform GG and NEM...
Looks like the fib retrace is about $12.38 on GLG, will be looking to add to my GLG position should it get there...
loantech:
Look forward to reading your posts... Glad you are posting here AND glad to have another fundamentalist view on i-hub...
Welcome aboard!
For all you gurus chasing torque..., good luck!, hope you time those moves right...
As for myself, will be more conservative and try to follow Richard Russell comments...
September 9, 2003 -- Let's start with the relative strength or ratio chart seen below. This chart shows the ratio of HUI, the Amex "gold-bugs" (unhedged gold shares) Index as against gold. What this chart reveals is simply a normal stock market function. Just as in a bull market rising common stocks "forecast" a forthcoming improvement in the economy, rising gold shares in a gold bull market can forecast a rise in the basic product -- gold. And this is exactly what I believe the gold shares have been telling us.
On the chart below we see the recent surge in the relative strength of HUI (representing gold shares) against gold the metal. The talk I've been hearing is "Aren't the gold shares getting ahead of themselves compared with gold?" And my answer has been, "Yeah, it's possible. But this is a bull market in golds, and it's also possible that the gold shares are simply telling us that a rise in the metal lies ahead."
It all boils down to this. We're in a primary bull market in gold and gold shares, and no one know exactly how the bull market is going to work out. We'll see times when the gold shares outpace gold, we'll see period when gold outpaces the gold shares, we'll see time when both correct, and we'll times when both push higher. We'll see corrections, we'll see consolidations, we'll see exciting times, we'll see scary times.
The trick will be to refrain from trading in and out during the gold bull market. Because if you continue to trade, you're almost surely going to end up missing the big moves and having to settle for a little here, a little there -- and somewhere along the line you're going to take a big loss, a loss that will have you sitting on the sidelines and "cursing your rotten luck."
The best way to handle the bull market in gold is to take your initial position in gold and gold shares, and then add to those positions during corrections....
So here's what I'm saying. This is a confirmed primary bull market in gold. Either you believe it or you don't. Ninety-nine percent of the population isn't even aware the gold is moving higher. The one percent that do know that gold is moving higher don't understand how primary bull markets work. They don't understand the power of a true primary bull market.
Therefore, these people never take a major position in gold. Most of the bull market in gold passes them by. They're lost in a maze of disinformation from analysts who continues to spout stupid statements about gold in the media.
But slowly, as the bull market moves into its second phase an increasing number of people note the price action -- and they will be buying gold. As gold via ETFs become available to the public, people "discover" an easy way buy gold, and they move to buy small quantities of gold as "hedges."
OK, I show below another relative strength chart. Do you remember when they asked the famed bank robber, Willie Sutton, "Willie, why do you rob banks?" And Willie made his famous reply, "I rob banks because that's where the money is."
Relative strength charts can show us where the strength is -- which is where the money is. Here's a relative strength chart showing HUI, the gold index vs. the S&P 500. You don't have to be Stanford math professor to read this chart. The trend has been steadily up in favor of HUI and the gold shares. So at least up to now, this is where the money's been. To put it briefly, the money's been in buying and holding gold shares.
Spike volume on Endeavour Mining Capital - EDV
NatGas - Robry Charts and comments updated...
http://amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html
Francisco gold cash cost is $110/oz., so that was worth $60/oz back at $300 POG, with a bankable feasibility study. Randy knows how to find that cheap gold... Would probably be worth over $90/oz today...
It's all relative, especially incest... I am most interested in this metric in regard to Alamos where the cash cost is much higher than $110. Nonetheless, I believe the Alamos gold reserve is still way undervalued, just look at the recent Wheaton Mexico acquisition at $30/oz-$37/oz.
My calcs show GLG paid about $62 per proven ounce for Francisco...
Remember, Francisco had a bankable feasibility study at time of puchase, hence the higher valuation..., cannot find inferred ounces which would lower the $62...
Paid C$200M = US$124M (using .62 prevailing exchange rate)
Proven Ounces = 2M
Paid per ounce = $62/oz
This would explain MFN's current $50/oz valuation (but this includeds inferred ounces) and MFN will have bankable feasibility study completed soon.
"Glamis Gold agreed in early March to acquire Francisco Gold in a deal valued at just under $C200 million. Francisco Gold's El Sauzal gold project in Chihuahua, Mexico was the centerpiece of the transaction. Capital expenses to develop El Sauzal is estimated at $100 million."
http://e-mj.com/ar/mining_glamis_agrees_acquire/
NatGas-Robry is doing some fascinating work on degree days modeling, should be interesting.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7081371&tid=cwei&sid=708...
Thanks for your comments, I think...!?!
I'll let you gurus chase after the torque, I am out of the more speculative issues for now... I prefer proven reserves in politically safe countries... and/or clear value. FWIW, 15% of my CBD is on my sell list at a bit higher prices. Will likely wait until 2004 before selling any GBN depending on the timing of Ivanhoe permit/HL mining (if permit approval comes during a POG above $400 spike, it will be a candidate). Right now am thinking this will happen in November or so, too late for the POG spiking...?
Yes, I love those Eric Hommelberg charts and comments, saw that article on gold eagle the day it was posted and began loading up even more gold shares...
here is my current favorite, the ol' 27/8 chart:
MFN still cheap, surely you jest... IMO, Alamos will outperform both CBD and MFN going into 2004. FWIW, my understanding is Alamos will be trading on the AMEX before too long, 4Q03?..., there 20-F has already been filed as of June 30 and believe the AMEX review process is underway...
As for your comment "Not all ounces in the ground are created equally", I agree. Here is my full post at bearforum which went with the spreadsheet chart...
_____________________________
These are fully diluted shares adjusted for cash proceeds from options and warrants and working capital as of 6/30/03. Also referred to as Enterprise Value per Reserve Ounce.
GBN and Alamos still look attractively valued, IMO. It was painful to sell some of my Alamos As a rule of thumb, $30 per resource ounce has often represented fair value for past acquisitions, but this amount should be rising to over $50 given the current gold price. The same reserves bought by a major for $30-$50/oz are valued at over $100+/ounce by large cap gold stock investors. Also as a rule of thumb:
1) US, Canada, and Mexico ounces are worth more than S Africa ounces- political factors
2) Gold reserves per a bankable feasibility study are worth more than those with a pre-feasibility study (and espeically an in-house resource estimate)- quality of reserves factor
3) Cash costs to produce also important as is silver vs. gold content of equivalent ounces
4) Percent of reserves in measured and indicated (i.e. proven) vs. total reserves.
Thus, Minefinders currently is priced above $30 because it is not in S Africa, has a bankable feasibility study, has lower cash cost relative to CBD and Alamos, and has high silver content which is currently in fashion. Notwithstanding the above, GBN and Alamos are still better vaules relative to Minefinders, IMO, especially if you believe price of gold will remain above $380.
Just my opinion...
Me too, firmly in the gold bull camp...
Think we go up until Spring 2004..., but 80% gold stocks is still a bit high for my liking... Really hated to depart with Alamos, but I had some AGI trading shares from a few weeks ago at C$1.10 level and so these were jettisoned... Also, have a tax payment to make Sept 15...
My gold stock portfolio is currently (by $ amount):
Great Basin
Moydow (may short NEM @ $42 as a 50% hedge, maybe not!)
Alamos
Cumberland
Endeavour Mining (effectively a closed end fund selling @ 20%+ discount)
Chesapeake (of which about 25% freebie via Francisco)
PAAS warrants (freebies via BAY)
Glamis
GoldCorp
Your comments on this portfolio welcomed... These are my tried and true gold stock favorites, all my more speculative positions have been sold (except for MOY, which is really NEM nowadays, and a few hundred remaining shares of Minefinders).
Primarily, I like to invest based on Market Cap per Reserve Gold ounce (fully diluted) for the juniors... Here are the current numbers:
Based upon the above GBN and Alamos appear to offer the most value... MFN appears relatively overvalued, especially relative to Alamos. FWIW, believe GBN will be the outperformer in 2004 as Ivanhoe permit is approved/HL starts mining, coupled with the added resources of Burnstone Area 2 (believe 10M ounces gold resources will more likely be above 11M ounces...) (The only thing I am worried about with GBN is private placements raising cash they don't need...)
Wheaton bought Mexico mine at $30/oz-Canaccord
This would value AGI at US$2.11 fully diluted:
Share Price-US$............... $2.11
Shares - Fully Diluted........ 57,772,878
Market Cap-Fully Diluted...... 121,900,773**plug to get $30
Working Capital + Exercise.... 17,538,335
Market Cap-Adjusted for W/C... 104,362,438
Gold Ozs/Measured & Inferred.. 3,480,000
Market Cap/Resource........... $29.99** gets to $30/oz
WHEATON RIVER MINERALS LTD (WRM : TSX : C$2.76) - BUY - 12-MONTH TARGET
PRICE: C$3.00
Jim Taylor
Comment: Wheaton to acquire gold development projects in Mexico
On September 3, 2003, Wheaton announced that it intends to acquire gold development projects in Mexico, for which it is to pay a total of US$87 million in cash. The assets being acquired are: 100% of the Los Filos heap leach development project (total resources, 2.2Moz, of which 1.8Moz are in the measured and indicated categories); 21.2% (including 14% free carried) of the El Limon advanced exploration project, (total inferred resources are 1.7Moz); and 100% of the small 0.3Moz Nukay gold mine. Wheaton is acquiring 2.9 million equity resource ounces of gold at a price of US$30/oz. We anticipate that the impending resource increase at El Limon has the potential to decrease this to US$27/oz. The strength of the acquisition is that it provides the potential to increase forecast gold equivalent production in 2006 by 32% to 732Koz (at cash costs of less than US$140/oz). There is also the potential of resource increases and the subsequent development of El Limon. We are maintaining our BUY recommendation but increase our 12-month target price from C$2.10 to C$3.00 per share.
NatGas - Robry +92 this week, +100 next?
Gas Flows
by: robry825 (M/Michigan) 09/10/03 01:25 am
Msg: 16077 of 16101
Gas flows for last week were consistent with an injection of 92 BCF. Flows suggested 71% of operators increased injections over the previous week, 25% decreased injections, and 4% maintained the previous weeks activities. Flows also suggested 92% had net injections for the week, 6% had net withdrawals, and 2% were full.
I do not have baseline comparisons today as those models are being replaced this week with a set of interim models (I am in the process of replacing the old NOAA data with a model of my own- the temperature portion of which is now complete, with a UV module to follow).
This week is also "Anomaly Week" (See posts 10534 & 10535). However, the EIA report two weeks ago (for week ending 8/22) had all the characteristics of the anomaly, and coincided with the EIA's early release of its monthly data, so the anomaly may already have passed.
NEXT WEEKS EIA REPORT: A "Hundreder" on the way? Gas flows suggest 49 BCF injected thus far (through Tuesday night), which given NOAA projections puts us on track for a 100'ish build in next weeks EIA report.
-Robry825
Still short the QQQ and SPY for 10% of my portfolio. Small 4%-5% loss or so... Nonetheless, good insurance/hedge because if the stock market goes down, then gold stocks likely will as well. This is my biggest fear, i.e. broad stock market decline takes gold shares with it...
Get this, after selling 25% of my Alamos today, 5% of my total trading portfolio for cash, my total allocation to gold stocks increased from 80% to 81.5%!! My gains in GBN, CBD, and EDV offset the measly cash received for Alamos...
Looks like it's going to be difficult to cull my gold stocks to 50% of my portfolio...
Sold my first Alamos shares today at US$1.31 ; Sold 25% of position for over a double (US$.60 basis), hanging on to the rest...
METALLIC VENTURES INC. (MVG : TSX : C$5.35) - BUY - 12-MONTH TARGET PRICE: C$6.50
Brian Christie
Comment: Metallic reports drill results from Converse project
Infill reverse circulation drill results reported from the Converse deposit in Nevada, which currently hosts a resource of 2.6 million ounces. This recent program produced some of the best holes ever drilled on the property including: 310 feet averaging 0.03 opt gold in hole NK-118, 640 feet averaging 0.024 opt gold in hole NK-122, and 295 feet averaging 0.032 opt gold in hole NK-129. The company has observed erratic sample recovery from several holes in hard, broken ground within the deposit, and as a result, it plans to carry out a program of core drilling that will begin within the next 60 days. The core program should help with sample integrity issues. Once the core drilling is completed, further infill drilling will be carried out, which will allow for an upgrade of the resource base and the start of a feasibility study. We are maintaining our BUY recommendation and C$6.50 target price. We may further revise our target once we complete a planned site visit later this month.
Turnaround at 15:30 Greenwich mean time...
gold back up, 30 yr treasury down, euro up ==>fundamentally perfect
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1333466
Stop that! Keep those energy stocks a secret until I have sold some of my gold stocks! Not to mention those CHK covered calls I have out..., don't want to buy those back for real money... We should have some 90+ builds these next few weeks, hope those energy stocks get beaten up a bit. My favorite natgas plays are: CHK, XTO, and XEC.
Also, be sure to check out EDV.v Endeavour Mining Capital trading tomorrow. Pre-released earnings, trading under 2x PE ratio... One of my larger holdings, have some for sale at US$2.22, trying to raise cash as a % of portfolio...
Gabriel/GBU
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/030908/gabriel_financing_1.html
C$45M is not quite enough to carry GBU into production, but this is a significant amount and vote of confidence.
If and when GBU gets beat up again and selling below C$3 I will consider repurchase...
Could be a NEM takeover target..., but I sold the rest of mine on Friday for a near double...
Like MVG a lot, and management's large ownership stake, but it appears to be fairly valued now especially relative to the risk of their not hitting their 1Q04 mining production goals. Hoping this one goes back down, because I do really like the company, but will not be afraid to buy back at higher prices if and only if they start meeting mining production goals. Eagerly awaiting their first full quarter of production (likely 2Q04) to review income statement and profitability of their first mine.
Am also looking to increase Alamos position BUT not until a few more weeks, have more than enough right now...
Reason to wait, is that potential warrant overhang:
487,663... $.82... 9/21/03
(that 1M trading today may have been these...?)
2,562,500...$.90...10/11/03
If Alamos behaves as before, then the time to buy would be around 2 days before Oct 11th..., but if I had no position in Alamos, then it is very safe to buy at current price, IMO, for a long term value play and then possibly add a few more on Oct 11th...
just some thoughts...
thanks, but that link is what I currently use...
sure would like a daily summary, rather than have to review that link every 5 minutes...
option shares:
my understanding is Alamos did in fact issue 680,000 or so option shares at C$1.13
______________________
from prior post:
Comparing to 6/30/03 quarterly, appears management has granted themselves 682,343 additional stock options??, or otherwise someone was granted these options if not management?? Wonder who and how...
2,647,381 - 1,964,898 = 682,343
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1378541
Can one of you non-guru's help me out...
If you have access to daily trades for GBG (Great Basin Gold) on the TSX, please advise how many shares Loewen has sold over the past 2 days and could you update this information each week...?
FWIW, GBN likely uses Loewen for their option sales and likely many of the warrants as Loewen is the lead for all GBN's private placements... Specifically, am interested in large crosses (none so far?). Am looking for when Loewen sales to exceed 3M shares or so...
Thanks!!
here is the option/warrant schedule:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1379517
Wheaton bought Mexico mine at $37/oz...
Alamos valued at $13.34** per ounce at current US$1.10 share price (working cap now includes deduction of US$3.75M to pay off note)
Thus, that is about a triple from here, i.e. values Alamos at about US$3.20
Assumes cash and production costs are comparable between Wheaton's new Mexico acquisition and Alamos Salamandra mine..., believe they are but do not know for sure...
_____________________________
Barry Cooper, an astute gold mining equity analyst at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, says Wheaton River likely will thrive because its executives know how to buy cheap.
"Wheaton and others are out to snap up gold in the ground with the expectation that these will become mineable reserves in the current bull market that we are experiencing," Cooper told me Friday morning. "Wheaton's purchase of gold was transacted at a price of about $37 an ounce compared to an average trading multiple of about $48 for the group. The acquisition price compares with successful explorers who claim a discovery cost in the range of $10 to $15 per ounce and the unsuccessful ones where the cost of discovery is infinite."
____________________________________
**
Share Price-US$................. $1.10
Shares - Fully Diluted.......... 57,772,878
Market Cap-Fully Diluted........ 63,550,166
Working Capital + Exercise...... 17,141,520
Market Cap-Adjusted for W/C..... 46,408,646
Gold Ozs/Measured & Inferred.... 3,480,000
Market Cap/Resource............. $13.34
CUMBERLAND RESOURCES LTD. (CBD : TSX : C$3.98) - SPECULATIVE BUY - 12-MONTH TARGET PRICE: C$5.30
Graeme Currie/Canaccord
Comment: Revised valuation of Cumberland's key assets
The results generated over the past quarter from Cumberland's 100% held Meadowbank gold project have, in our view, pushed this project over key economic hurdles. In particular, the expansion of the Vault and Portage Pits coupled with material improvements to the metallurgical recovery, along with resource expansion, should allow this project to be viewed solely for open pit development over a minimum ten-year mine life. In fact, given the expansion of in-pit recoverable resources to 3.0 million ounces of gold, it is our contention that a revision in the base-case operating through-put parameter of 4700 tpd could be revised upward by 15-20% and still allow for a ten-year mine life. We derive a target price of $5.30/share, up from our previous target of $4.25/share. Maintain Cumberland as a SPECULATIVE BUY and Top Recommendation with a new target of $5.30/share.
Robry Graphs updated, awaiting 9/4/03 comments...
http://amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html
this shows prior month's comparisons and explains the model methodology a bit...
http://amarks.homestead.com/robrymodel.html