Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Why do the new investors deserve anything!? I mean, sure, they're bringing ~$100B in new capital to help bring the GSEs back from the brink.
But why should they get a large chunk of ownership and also demand gains on their investment?
It doesn't seem "fair & balanced" for existing shareholders who bought distressed stocks very cheap and did nothing to help recapitalize the companies by doing anything other than complaining on internet message boards.
If the GSEs raise capital, we will have to file more lawsuits.
Don't worry, we will file more lawsuits if Calabria does anything that benefits Preferreds and hurts Commons.
Excellent post. Lots still needs to happen for Commons to hold their current price.
It's quite possible (likely?) that Common shares are over-valued as things stand
Moelis is not a shareholder, Common or Preferred.
Well, not openly. But I'm sure they own Preferred by now since they met with the FHFA last summer.
You are wrong
That 12 cents obviously ruined someone's day. No candy from the gum ball machine for that poor Lemming.
Will $FNMA recover from this blatant manipulation?
Low volume, lack of buyers. $FNMA looking weak. Very weak! Potential break-down to low $2s seems all but guaranteed pending any news from the Admin.
No bueno amigos.
Is $2.73 the low-end of AJP's proposed range? I was pretty sure $1,000 was the bare minimum we could all expect (and that doesn't even include the Treble Damages!). I'm not sure why folks are cashing in here when there's still another 350x up-side.
Unless, of course, the Lemmings are starting to realize there's no other way to raise $100B without significantly diluting existing shareholders.
Outlook negative. Sell the pops because ... <eom>
Not off the Lows! No bueno amigos. Commons are really starting to struggle as they come to terms with the massive dilution that's going to cripple their future EPS.
Say it ain't so amigos!
Good earnings. Looks like Commons aren't getting Cancelled. Not here at least.
Preferreds can't be forced to do anything -- Contract Rights as per Lamberth
So there won't be a "bummer exchange" unless 2/3rds of the Preferreds vote for terrible conversion terms. That won't happen. Why would they be spending all this money to fund lawsuits only to take a large haircut?
I agree we all need a positive ruling in En Banc; otherwise, we're looking at a long battle in Court which could easily go on another decade all while share prices languish.
Unless the Admin decides to settle with Preferreds and let the Commons bring new lawsuits (Statute of Limitations?). Then the Commons can battle it out in Court against the Government for the next decade or two.
Capital Retention/Raises are enough to drive Preferreds much higher. Commons will be stuck waiting to see what price capital is raised at.
So I don't agree with your statement.
Option 2 -- Commons are worse than Preferreds.
High likelihood Commons could still get Cancelled, especially if a Draw is required on Calabria's watch.
So Michael Bright gets to tell us what's going to happen? Oh boy! I can't wait to hear what he has to say about the upcoming GSE Reform
Quite likely. But that doesn't factor in the multitude of other Rs that need to fall in line
All in all, it seems likely Calabria will get the Senate confirmation. Let's just hope McConnell whips the R's and makes them fall in line.
Even assuming Calabria gets the nomination, there's still far too many questions that need to be answered before Commons can rally from these prices.
That's just Committee votes. Senate Votes matter more
How about Crapo? He's an R that might not want Calabria going through. Republicans can really only lose 3-4 R Votes; otherwise, Calabria won't make it through the Senate Confirmation.
And you know what that would mean for share prices! Curtains!
Where's all the buyers? You would think with the reassurance that $FNMA will soon be double-digits, and triple-digits shortly thereafter, folks would be lined up for miles to dump all their cash into Commons.
I'm bewildered no one else sees the potential of $FNMA outside the ~50 Average Joe's on ihub.
#YAWN
Calabria confirmed. Sell the News.
$FNMA doesn't know what's good or bad anymore. Lemmings just do what the person in front of them is doing
How exactly do the GSEs get $100-150B Capital? Oh wait, let me guess -- "Retained earnings!" Am I right!? That will only take another decade or two.
LOL! I hope you have a better answer for how the GSEs will get enough capital to be adequately capitalized enough for the Conservatorships to end.
You might want to hedge like Ackman did. I sense a lot of concern and hostility in your posts. It's quite easy for anyone to buy Preferreds rather than being stuck with the massive dilution that's about to slap all Common shareholders in the face.
There's no reason for anyone to be 100% Commons at this point, besides the few gamblers that only have a small amount invested. Those with large holdings should absolutely be hedged with Preferreds!
I'll stick with Preferreds and do the Conversion to Commons. This way, I still get the security of being in Preferreds (Contract Rights, etc.) and I'm protected against Calabria doing anything crazy. But I also get to participate in the ride to $100 ($1,000?) per share once my Preferreds Convert to Commons.
I get to avoid the bulk of the dilution current Common shareholders face by going this route.
#Winning!
Technical break-down confirmed. $2.40s coming! Don't buy the dip
The churn continues. Without news, BIG TIMBER coming for $FNMA.
$FNMA delisted to the Grey Sheets? No Bid/Ask there. Is this for real?
$FNMAQ? Anything is possible
Are those all not possibilities? We shouldn't turn a blind eye to them just because we don't want them to happen - Sr. Preferred Conversion, Warrants, JPS Conversion, Massive Dilutive Capital Raises, etc.
Those are all strong possibilities, yet too many here choose to ignore them and call those that address these possibilities as Bashers, TBTF Trolls, and so on.
This is a community forum, we should openly discuss all possibilities.
#Teamwork!
Coming from a technical trader, I'm surprised you're calling for a break-out. The technicals look like they're about to roll-over. Prices near the old highs while technicals aren't justifying it (lower highs on MACD, RSI, etc).
So what suggests to you that $FNMA is going to break-out? I'd actually play devil's advocate and say it's going to break-down back to $2.30 or so.
Oh no! That doesn't bode well for Common shares at all. If their debt is rated as Junk, Commons are truly worthless.
You just convinced everyone to sell Common and buy Preferred so they could be higher up the totem pole.
Scary stuff my friend. Great research though.
LMAO! If JPS fall to under a buck, Common shareholders might owe their broker money as their shares would likely be trading below Zero.
#Yikes!
Why are JPS listed as Equity on the balance sheet? You keep referring to them as Junk Debt. I don't think you know what that means.
JPS are actually Sr. Equity, with Commons being Jr. Equity. If Sr. Equity is Junk, I don't want to know what Jr. Equity is. Dirt? Worse than Dirt?
Lots of resistance in this area. Day Traders (like the "Commander") aren't going to let this past ~$3 without something concrete from the Admin. The Lemmings will keep piling on until the bottom drops from under $FNMA.
No Sweep = $4, Sweep = $1.60s
Very doubtful. Maybe in another decade. Once you add up all the dilution from the Warrants, JPS Conversions, and Capital Raises there's very little left for existing Commons (~6%).
Commons are likely capped at $6-7 per share. Very limited upside from today's prices.
Wrong! No guarantee of that price action. Could hit $3 and collapse back to $2
No Sweep = $4. Sweep = $1.60
The consensus says Q1 Sweep will not occur. Place your bets!
It's coming amigos! Life is good.
Q4 2017 both GSEs required another draw on the Treasury's commitment. So it was not that long ago. And if they have another bad Q this year, they may very well need another "bailout" so to speak.
Let's hope that doesn't happen once Calabria is confirmed, as we know he will push for Receivership this time around.
Whole lotta churning! Is $FNMA gonna roll over?