Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
VIX is ticking back up from a very OS level. The market/IBB needs to retest the recent sharp sell off. Until then, I think stocks will slump
It is a product offered by Tradestation. Each of the indicators listed are my own custom programmed indicators. However, the platform/program comes with hundreds of indicators that are easy to configure to the real time scanning radar. It’s a great tool for filtering a watch list while waiting to be alerted for turning points. You can change the interval to whatever time frame; monthly, weekly, daily, or intra-day.
Here’s a link: TradeStation RadarScreen
Here's a description of what I posted earlier:
Also, an updated RS after today's data:
Notice 2 new pullback patterns that triggered: NMM (strong bounce off the 50EMA) and MNDO (a cup and handle setup).
Finally, a RS of all the stocks in the Drugs sector/group:
You can see how it effectively identifies the best trade gems, like AKRX, CBM, UTHR, CTLT, and ENDP (my favorites from this scan).
Cheers,
FFS
Thanks North. PPHM is a good technical comparison to AMRN. Both are rising on increasing EPS with news events on the horizon and gaps to fill overhead.
The only TA difference I see is that AMRN has very little resistance above its current consolidation pattern, whereas PPHM has stiff overhead.
I would be careful of a bear raid on a breakout. The stock has been on a tear up +175% in 2 months without a retrace. FWIW, here's how I see it playing out:
Zip, a buy is a buy(bullish), but in this case I think the reason was necessity and not demand. I think what we are seeing are the footprints of Hedge Funds who are buying long range out-of-the-money calls for insurance, while naked shorting (3 days ago on 3-21-17). To bypass the need to report to the SEC, they must cover 3 days later. Their orders to buy-to-cover get executed near the close on day 3 (today).
Perhaps (hopefully) it will rise tomorrow since they've taken their foot off AMRNs neck.
Thanks for the heads up. If the need arises to lighten up, it is a good time to sell into that late day surge.
LOL. If parking $$ in the bank versus doubling down is wrong, well then I guess you're right.
You two boys won't think it's very funny when you discover your IRAs have been chopped in half.
I hope you didn't discount my warning, cuz it could cost you,.. unless you plan to "buy the bottom." But how will know when to do that if you can't tell a top from a bottom?
The proverbial switch has been tripped (for the general market). Volatility is on the rise, now in full functioning mode to erode support levels. What was 2 steps forward, 1 back has now reversed. The trouble with most retail investors is the “one step” which keeps them clinging to a losing investment while it melts away before their eyes.
Be careful, it's getting interesting.
what predictions? Like a major downturn I warned about a few weeks ago? Is that what you mean? Remember the phony jamie Diamond article you cited in response?
KIWI, you follow Robert Shiller. You should know value metrics don't change simply based on the source of revenue.
BS JF. Emotions are triggered. Potential is contained energy. At issue is how much energy and whether or not what didn't trigger it last month or yesterday will trigger it today. Serendipity works for me. Tipping points work accurately and predictably in physics. Emotion, not so much...
Charts capture the very footprints of participants (humans) and thus measure the oscillation of fear and mania. As such, and if used correctly, they can indeed identify tipping/pivot points when one emotion engulfs the other in a flash and vice versa. It's very predictable. The technical tipping point always precedes the magnification of fear that follows on a failed retest of breakdowns (to follow.. ie short the pullup).
Bolio, Ask JF... He thinks it's all based on serendipity. Maybe he can help you with those MOST IMPORTANT($$) questions/answers :)
KIWI, here's your volcano.
Most investors have a herd mentality (like sheep) which tends to blind them from warning signs at market tops. They buy in to the complacent rhetoric that “this market will continue to climb based on continued growth prospects,” etc., while ignoring the extreme valuation levels.
I just read, “The US stock market was valued at 50% of GDP in the 1980s. Ahead of the dot.com bubble burst it peaked at 146%. Today it is 167%.” That folks is unsustainable and should be cause for serious concern. Markets always over-react. Is it not better to miss the first 20% of a market crash than catch the last 5% of a rally?
As investors, we are wired to buy vs sell. By inverting charts, it can help us judge the quality of the “buying” opportunity. So in this case, if it looks like a screaming buy (it does), it’s a good idea to run for cover (sell equities).
(Per your request Kiwi I have embellished it with a colorful volcano)
">
" />
Serendipity LOL
Kiwi, By the way ...this is a correction ...not a 1987 redux ( at least not yet The passage of Trump's tax plan is conditional on the effective repeal (and/or replace) of Obamacare, which is set for a vote on Thursday. And yet, it was only today that the market, and the press, appeared to notice that the biggest threat for the market - a market which has long ago priced in the successful passage of Trump's tax cuts - is that Trumpcare may not pass not only the Senate, but also the House, which in turn would stall Trump's tax plan schedule well into fiscal 2018 (if not later) as the following Reuters headlines confirms: "Worries about Trump tax plan sink stocks."
It's neither yet and could merely be a knee jerk reaction to today's political events. Let's all hope it doesn't become too severe or drawn out.
That being said, the market is extremely vulnerable, having priced in Utopian expectations:
And, unfortunately for Trump and bulls, despite the president's trip to the Capitol this morning, he failed to whip holdout Republicans. In fact, according to the latest NBC News roll call, there are at least 26 Republicans who as of this moment, 48 hours before the House vote to repeal Obamacare, are either opposed, or lean "strongly against" the health bill despite its recent revisions.
Then there's this:
Marko Kolanovic has done it again.
Last Thursday, one day ahead of the massive quad-witching where over $1.4 trillion in options expired in relatively tame fashion, the JPM quant warned of "near-term market weakness" and suggested "reducing US equity exposure. And, sure enough, JP Merlin's Gandalf timed it impeccably yet again. To be sure, the jury is still out on what caused the selloff - lack of votes to repeal Obamacare, fears about Trump's fiscal policy agenda, the market's sudden realization that it is at 30 CAPE, or just a technical revulsion - what matters is that once again, like clockwork, Kolanovic called a key inflection point just days in advance.
agree HR. A declining general market/IBB will delay a breakout and be a drag on any upward AMRN progress pre-R-IT. However, I don't believe the pattern will break.
Zum, yup, the chart agrees!
A few weeks ago I highlighted bullish MACD crossovers that indicated sharp, sustained turning points. Take a look below at the price response to crossovers that were also ‘centerline rejections’ (x-over above the centerline, green highlight) and notice the magnified price moves. Once again at the right edge, we are poised for the same technical event that should, once and for all, launch us out of this squeeze pattern. There’s no telling how high it might go once it sheds resistance. The new recent price targets will certainly help define the next trading range.
While aligning preferences for a halt vs continue, have we considered the patients in the trial - particularly those in the placebo arm whose doubts are growing stronger by the day as to the efficacy of what they are taking? They likely have failed to notice or feel a positive effect from the add-on to their statin meds and are looking forward to the finish line (80%). What if the 80% look results in a continuation, forcing them to give up / drop out? To compound things further, what if there is a spike of events in the treatment arm over the subsequent 6 mo. period due to unexplained circumstances impacted simply by horrible timing? Adding insult to injury, what if the broad market sells off sharply and continues to erode as results come in later versus sooner?
There are multiple uncontrollable factors that could combine to spoil such a finale.
Squeezing the golden goose just to make it “very convincing” versus “convincing” could backfire.
Exactly. Their strategy is to stall and take their time because they have learned of a rapid acceleration of events. This might enable them to bypass the the 80% altogether if they delay long enough and monitor enough events. It is within reach so they remain silent with all cards down.
TA is doing just fine.
Remember, your gains (unverifiable/debatable) are on paper :(
My gains are in the bank :). Thank you TA!
No, it is not impossible. Right now, there is insufficient confidence in AMRN stock to push prices into a higher trading range. We should be seeing a breakout / run up to the 80% look, but it seems as though the AMRN market is indecisive and senses something isn’t adding up to what they’ve been led to expect. So we entertain possibilities as to why that might be.
The lack of 80% news isn’t necessarily bearish or this pattern would bust. I believe if they were to announce a bypass (no pun intended), it would surprise the market in a very bullish way. I don’t think investors ever really embraced the idea of an IIA look anyway. The strategy was engaged to keep them in the game in hopes there ROI could be realized sooner.
From a management perspective, why risk a potentially bearish setback of an “80% continue” announcement (enabling the likes of Pyr to profit from a bear raid) when the trial completion is around the corner in a matter of months? After all, hasn’t trial completion been their intention from the beginning?
Switching to such a strategy gives them the best of all worlds. They save precious cash, the market perceives it favorably – igniting a run up, and they don’t have to face the potential ethical ramifications of continuing a trial that needs more time to bake the SEs while the PE is/was worthy of a stop.
Perhaps, on the heels of the recent CC, the Baker Boys and other moneyed interests decided to put pressure on the board to consider this??
That statement does not make it "impossible"
Management's statement is vey vague. Vague enough to change without ramifications, so I think anything is possible.
Is it possible that they are closer to 100% then they anticipated? Are they delaying an announcement of foregoing the 80% in lieu of a final assessment earlier than anticipated? Benefits: saves expenses, surprises the market, enables expanded indication earlier than planned.
Remember the placebo arm is full of sick subjects getting sicker/older each day . Massive amounts of mineral oil are not helping them with endothelial repair and elevation of mood, energy and overall outlook on life. Perhaps, in response to these efficacious properties, the separation of the two arms has gone exponential?
Caddie, Clearly you've chosen a strategy of holding through thick and thin and when the price moves against you, you double down for more payoff at the end. I respect that. This board is a free board for discussion of anything related to Amarin and or the market forces that might impact prices short and long term.
I have chosen a different strategy so why does it bother you so much?
Don't confuse me with fishyfingers. His supply, demand, 'smart money' arguments don't always fit depending on changing conditions, consolidation periods/patterns, etc. Sorry, sorry,.. I know you don't want to hear this TA circus trash.
BTW, I thought you said you wouldn't respond to my posts anymore?? Why is it you break your promise on down days?
Cheers,
FFS
Seriously, you spent a few days digging for a casual response I made to a smart-A poster who does nothing but harass? Your life has been reduced to " going postal?"
I will pray for you....
You're right, the underlying rules do change based on volatility induced market conditions. Precisely my point. So many fail to realize when the switch gets tripped and selling at resistance trumps buying at support, leading to a lower market. I have specific monitors that identify those changing conditions and specific checklists for each trade condition. The colors on the spreadsheet represent those respective periods.
No, this is an IRA account that auto-trades a set amount each trade based on this new model I developed. It does not include other stocks (AMRN, etc.) or ETFs that I trade in my margin account. It operates based on backtested rules for each Market season/pattern signal, with specific rules for varying exit modes, all automatic which removes emotion. It is a beautiful system, but very boring!
No, this is not my total trade history.
This is a new model called TreasureMap that I implemented at the first of 2014. It is a pure timing based system using 3xEtf of the indexes
each time you foretold doom and gloom for AMRN.
Please provide quote of me foretelling doom and gloom for AMRN.
Let me quote what I said, "What will happen to AMRN? Good news, bad news. Good news is the 6 month long Ascending triangle pattern is still in play (marked by higher lows). The bad news is it looks like we will test the demand trendline near $3 before we see a substantial bounce."
I can understand why some can lose so much money in the markets when they explain away all warning signs.
TA is about reading the people behind the number
The people behind the number don't contribute to your account balance. Numbers do; price x shares. Don't make it rocket science
haha,.. what the heck is that supposed to mean? If you understood just a little about TA, you would realize that sometimes "good news" is "bad news," especially when the rumor has been so far overbought that we have smashed all records - including those just prior to the crash of 1987. Now we sell the news because this short term trend is no longer sustainable
Not true. Blow off the top action kills markets
LOL. Priced in. What it unfortunately means is that the fed will most certainly raise rates again.
That's all you have to say regarding my analysis? This quote has already been shared. IMO, the statement is no security blanky or excuse to cling to longs as the bottom falls out.
Look,.. I'm long AMRN, believe in the science and fully expect this beautiful pattern to resolve up in a big way. I hold a substantial position and trade a percentage of it. I am a trader thru and thru and if trendline support breaks, I will not hesitate to sell AMRN, despite what JL or his alias HDG says and has been saying since $19.00 a share. It's all great science but most of you are under the ice line, sitting on enormous losses because you've refused to embrace the technical message.
Right now that message for the general market is saying we have bumped our head on the ceiling and it is awakening the bears. When/ if the general indexes evaporate, nearly all stocks get hammered regardless (especially bios). So if you are holding a 'diversified' portfolio of small microcap bios, you might be wise to at least appreciate the warning rather than dogmatically throw out a broad Peter Lynch quote in response or some story about how easy it is to make a fortune buying bottoms like 1987 LOL.
Nope, holding 120k shrs. unless and until the trend is broken.
Just trying to be objective. Numbers don't lie.
I totally agree with his statement, especially since he has an eye for minivans and is probably not as astute with TA. There is a saying in TA: bottoms are clean, tops are dirty. The key is to recognize the big wave change and ignore the ripples.
There's always early symptoms and leading indicators of a sea change when investors switch to a preference of selling at resistance versus buying at support. If you can be unbiased and heed those warnings, I believe it can protect against 6 months of pain. Besides, I make the most with least shorting the market because stocks 'climb up stairs and fall out of windows.' To each his own
But hey, thanks for your concern.