Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
My take on what is happening in the market: OT
First, I think that Jim Cramer should stop bad-mouthing the market. He has a large following, and we might be seeing a self-fulfilling prophecy here. Or am I being too naive? IMO the guy made a fool of himself touting AAPL for the past couple of weeks. He should have waited to find out what the reaction to the 10Q was going to be before he opened his oversized pie hole.
Second, I figured that as the U.S. finished filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil prices would drop. Next week should tell the tale--whether this drop is real or not.
Third, I think that lots of traders have been distracted this week doing their taxes.
Fourth, I'll post over the VMC the big-cap stock that I believe is showing a lot of strength.
Have a good weekend.
niles_crane3:
On 3/20/05, DCTH closed at $2.90. I just picked up 1K at $2.05. Plan to get some more if it goes any lower.
If the Phase II results are good, things will move very fast, imo. Sure looks like a ZC changer.
Your okay in my books.
bbotcs
ksuave:
Let me play the devil's advocate. If the company has such good prospects, why is the stock price so pitiful? I've have seen this stock thrown around on these boards for a while, yet it has gone down.
bbotcs
wadegarret or whoever mentioned CKCM awhile back:
It has been moving up lately. Looking strong, imo.
Someone must have liked the annual report.
whyme2005:
This is a whole lot of nothing, man.
Thanks for keeping us up to date.
Bobwins:
Thanks for the state of the union address on EGY.
It is a great synopis for anyone thinking about getting into the stock.
bbotcs
lentinman:
tsunomey, I'll take a pound of baloney.
Many thanks for the fine post on WTO, COS and SU. Much appreciated. I admire a guy who knows his tar sands.
Len, do we know the price oil would have to go to before they would start using tar sands as an oil source in a major way?
This fascinates me and makes me think that the U.S. of A. wouldn't go down the tubes if the price of a barrel of oil went too high.
Also, there is lots of oil to be had in Utah
--oil shale. The technology doesn't exist yet that would allow profitable extraction.
bbotcs
rrufff:
This company looks interesting. Sitting here with a sore throat and reading about that African virus that has killed 155 people already, not to mention SARS and everything else out there, I am thinking about getting one of the masks.
This looks like a smart area to be in. Whether your company is the one to pick I don't know yet.
Would someone or someones give me some Canadian tar sand plays.
TIA. bbotcs
lentinman:
I disagree that there is a housing bubble. I think that we are close to seeing a top in what is a normal real estate cycle.
If personal income does not increase at a rate sufficient to offset the increase in mortgage costs resulting from the %rate hikes, boom, Joe Blow can no longer afford to buy the house of his dreams. Housing at the moderate and lower price levels might actually continue to increase in cost, since people will be forced to trade down. For example, if Joe Blow no longer can qualify for a mortgage on that 3-bedroom house with a garage, he might have to go for something smaller,--say a townhouse or a condo. I think a leading indicator of this trend is the fact that the prices of resale condos have been rising for the past year. (I am not talking Florida or Arizona here, Len.)
There are going to be some sad sacks who will end up selling their residences for less than what they paid. That is the pits, but it is going to happen. Stocks aren't the only thing that you can buy at too high a price!
bbotcs
Rainman:
I'll buy PAR.OL this summer, after the U.S.'s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is filled. The price of oil should back off significantly. Significantly could be 5 percent or better.
From now until early summer might be a good time to take profits in oil stocks.
bbotcs
whyme2005:
I agree with you that IPT seems to be a great buy. I have not visited a I-Party store, but I assume that they sell a lot of junk for Easter--and I do mean junk. Visited a Wal-Mart the other day, and they have aisles and aisles of Easter crap. In markets where IPT is competing with Wal-Mart, they ain't gonna do so hot.
The next quarter should be good since there is Mother's Day, Father's Day, graduations, and lots of spring birthdays.
April is going to be a very slow month, imo.
I like that management is not growing the business faster than they can manage it.
I only wish that you had kept your mouth shut about IPT. I already own and am looking to add at an even cheaper price.
bbotcs
You need to be diversified to stay in the game when things go bad. That is Cramer's advice. Just got my copy of his new book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an InSane World."
Well, the Sheriff already knows about diversification.
I'm convinced that you can make money more than you would want to spend by investing in 5 good micrcos and watching them like a mama bear watches her cubs. Five--that's it. You read every filing, every PR, memorize the websites. Okay, so what are those 5 stocks?
Anyone? JMIH? IPT? Probably some nanotechs that we never heard of?
OT: will be interesting to see how the oil prices affect the economy. Definitely inflationary. Greenspan continues to raise interest rates. People with 1-year ARMS pay more. Marginal-income people pay more at the gas pump--result: less money for beer, movies, and shopping at Wal-Mart.
I am guessing that we'll be in a recession within 6 months. A very wise man recently suggested avoiding retail stocks if the economy is going to tank. I am light on retail; heavy on O&G.
Will tech stocks take off in an inflationary environment? Good question.
roguedolphin:
The oil/gas sector might be happenin' for the next 20 years, with peaks and valleys along the way. I'm in the Bobwins camp. It is the place to be.
bbotcs
Okay, cosmodius, you're on:
If the politicians keep piling up the budget deficient, while simultaneously allowing the trade deficit to climb, our investments in American stocks ain't gonna be worth much.
Think what the trade deficient will be if the price of oil climbs to say, $60 a barrel, which isn't so crazy a thought.
Faith in the American economy is eroding.
Now we are going to lose U.S. jobs to China in the textile industry. Asia and India (which really is Asia) are hammering us in technology.
If anybody knows of a good IH board on Indian stocks, please let me know. Sadly, the U.S. ain't where it's happening.
Americans are turning into dumb losers. We have the potential to be number one and stay number one, but look at the school system. We are not competitive in science. Just ask Greenspan.
I am apolitical. Blaming the ills of this country on one political party is idiotic and unpatriotic. Also, we aren't going to get anywhere running overseas starting wars. It just ain't gonna work. Make American strong at home--values, discipline, good education system, access to medical care for EVERYONE, and respect for our fellow citizens. And we need to do something about a culture of suing-the-azz off of everyone who looks at you the wrong way.
We have a lot of problems, but they are solvable.
bbotcs
Where's the sheriff? Politics don't belong on this board.
researcher59:
I am loathe to buy pinks. The antics on the OTC BB provide enough excitement for me. The pinks are the Wild West of investing.
bbotcs
researcher:
You cannot get information on this company. If you try to register out their website, you get a message saying that the URL has expired. The lack of info ain't exactly going to attract hoards of new investors.
kozuh:
Don't believe everything that you read.
bbotcs
Bobwins:
I'm looking forward to the conference call on Thursday.
bbotcs
Bobwins:
Great board, even if 60 percent of the posters are you!
You have done everyone's dd with that intro to the board.
I have gotten a family member in, and I've told a stockbroker and a friend about Callon Petroleum.
Wonder what the price of CPE will be when the thousandth post is made--$50?.
c'mon people--find us!
bbotcs
TGA: I'll go out on a limb. The volume isn't spectacular, granted. Up, but not wild. I have seen this pattern in stocks where it is being bought up for a buy-out offer. Kind of stealth accummulation.
Honestly I don't want to see a takeover. Pumping oil out of the ground in Yemen with that high profit margin. It doesn't get any better than this.
Bobwins has good taste.
bbotcs
BIPH: I don't get it--no revenues, 60-plus million in the float. This looks like a medical company that will not turn a dime for years. At 50 cents--maybe. At current level, it doesn't look like a deal from my chair.
IPT: Retail is an area where you can make enough $$ to change your zip code. You have to be there when a business with a good concept is young. That is where IPT is.
The number to watch is the same-store-sales growth. It will take time for IPT's stores to catch on. What it will take is word of mouth. Somebody throws a party, a woman asks the host or hostess, "Where did you get these nice things", and the word spreads. That doesn't happen overnight, but women do have big mouths.
I do think that RAWNOC was as transparent as glass--agree with that.
Sorry, guys, I'm gonna watch this one. Promise to report back on it only when the same-store-sales figures come out.
bbotcs
IPT: 4.6 percent same-store sales increase is pretty good. Personally, I'd like to see this one go down to about 60 centavos. I'd add to my position. Here is the rub, though. If it stays under a buck, could it get kicked off of the AMEX? That would be the kiss of death in the short term. What am I saying? I might get it for 10 cents if that happened! TIA if anyone can tell me.
bbotcs
OTCbargains: IPT
It could be a home-run in the LT. You start out at a high PE, improve your profit margin as you add stores and the COG's becomes lower, the PE goes down and attacts the attention of guys like us on this board. Of course, if you buy at this stage . . .
It's no big bargain--right about that--if you expect to get a good return within 6-9 months, like you could with say ASPN, or BWLRF, or ALMI (LOL on the last one).
I bought ALMI and IPT this week. This could be my sucker-week of the year. Time'll tell.
bbotcs
IPT is a zip code board stock, imo, unless the Q4 earnings come through with earnings. I checked out their website and my wife, a professional shopper, feels that their prices are competitive.
The more they expand, the cheaper the COG's sold. That should improve the margins if management doesn't blow too much money on promotions and high rent for new locations.
This is the first flyer I've taken in retail in a long time--check it out. Bought 4K at 99 cents. Might sell 1K if Q4 surprises and it runs. Want to hold 3K for longer term.
bbotcs
Wadegarret:
You trying to change my zipcode to the poor house? I bought some ALMI today at $1.41 (purely as a momentum play), and it closes at $1.38. Are you underwriting my investment? LOL!
Maybe you'll be my temporary new best friend by Friday.
Seriously, the 52-week low is way low, and if you got in at that level, congrats big-time. I took a flyer because I see lots of stocks that started out under 50 cents and ended up 20- or 30-times higher during the past year.
bbotcs
monsteryear1:
The hype is nice and I do like the company, but when a retailer is expanding like this one it is hard to get a handle on how they are doing. Revenues will be up due to new store openings. The thing to watch, imo, is the gross profit margin.
By the way, do you know whether they sell discounted greeting cards? I am trying to figure whether they can compete with WalMart on price. WMTS's greeting cards ain't all that cheap. Cheap greeting cards might be a good customer draw. WMT cannot carry the inventory that IPT carries, so WMT shouldn't be a threat. Which is good.
Please keep the board updated. Early days, imo.
bbotcs
Marvelmeister2002:
First thanks to Bob and you for first class posts on this company.
Just a thought--what might be in the back of the minds of the institution guys (and gals) is a Stage 5 hurricane--maybe Ivan has a big brother we haven't met yet (Nicolai?). People are very freaked out about those hurricanes.
Would a Stage 5 wreck oil rigs? I guess a hurricane expert could tell us.
Tnanks again to Bob and you. Definitely will start a position. Still ain't as exciting as TGA pumping black gold out of the Yemeni desert.
Kicking myself for not buying more TGA when I found this board a couple of months ago. A whole 500 shares. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.
bbotc
DON'T RIDE AN ELEVATOR WITH KOZUH!
Wade, another thing re CKCM:
I wonder whether management has the experience needed to integrate the acquisitions successfully? The OPTUM deal means assuming $4+M in debt. Deals are diluting O/S to a significant degree, though the new total still will be moderately small. 2005 could be a tricky year for these guys. The stock price indicates to me that not everyone is impressed with what they are doing.
bbotcs
wadegarrett CKCM
I couldn't really figure out the RFIC connection by visiting their website. Had totally forgotten that you mentioned an acquisition.
Management seem pretty young but obviously know what it is all about. Maybe mid-30's is the perfect age to run a company like this?
You an get info overload at that website. The list of customers knocks your eyes out.
Thanks--bbotcs
kozuh:
Hope you're getting rich at this game, cause if your putting your mother's IRA money in stuff like ALMI, you might end up supporting her someday. How old are you? Were your around in 2000?
bbotcs
Zen lunatic420:
MMRK is not long on stock performance. Also, the business is not exactly vertically integrated. Unless you like the dividend, there are far better plays offered here--far better. JMO.
bbotc
DON'T RIDE ON AN ELEVATOR WITH KOZUH.
msgi: BWLRF
Especially since I ponied up $3k for some. lol
nothernlightsk05: OVTI
Thanks for posting the upgrade. I am thinking that this thing could go back to the 52-week high if we get some more upgrades. This one belongs on the ZCC board I think? Definitely not a VMC.
bbotcs
RRainman9999: Congrats. The "R" must stand for "rich" rainman.
Bobwins: TGA
PE seems to be kinda high. Comparing its and EGY's PE--guess I would put new $ into EGY.
bbotcs
OVTI:
I have made a watch list of stocks mentioned here.
This one looks like it is trying to break out. Any comments?
bbotcs