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Idcc many more people are losing in a delay than just ERHC investors. All of the companies associated in this process are losing. The Nigerians are losing. The Nigerian EEZ is losing. The people of Sao Tome are losing. The credibility of Sao Tome for future business dealings is losing. The reputation of Sao Tome worldwide is losing.
Its a lose lose all the way around except for people who you mentioned who are winning ie Trovado, etc.
Nigerian press does not report on the events in Sao Tome because they do not view them as their equal. The Nigerians have an arrogance about them when it comes to all things Sao Tomeans and to report on the going's on there would only give Sao Tome more visibility and more stature. Neither of which the Nigerians feel they deserve.
Well I got that translation off of the blog. So blame him, everybody else does lol. He was overly positive with his interpretation. I wonder if anyone will blame him for being too positive. I doubt it.
Mabenn, what do you think will be the end result of all of this? For some strange reason I believe everything will work out. The reason I feel that way is the World Bank supported the choices that were made by the JDA.
That is why I believe the Nigerians have taken such a hard line in this recent meeting. It is because they know they will win in the court of world opinion.
The Sao Tomeans have one of two choices. They can either save what face they hve left and sign on. Or they can refuse to sign, take this to arbitration, and get humiliated on the world stage.
Either way ERHC wins. It jst might take a little longer than I had hoped.
Mabenn, also, do you think it possible to have some of the blocks awarded even without de menezes signing on as sme have alluded to?
Did menezes sign Prophetti? I must have missed the news release? And the fact that he didnt sign is that LUSA's fault?
So why bust on Lusa? Dont you want to hear what is going on good or bad?
By the way, Im done debating what newspaper is bad and which is good and who we should be listening to.
I want to debate why de Menezes refuses to sign off on awards.
Is he getting background support from third parties not to sign (ie Exxon, Travado, etc.)
Is he a weak leader who refuses to make a decison?
Someone on RB said he believed de menezes had no intention of ever signing.
Why would that be IF that is the case?
What do you have against LUSA prophetti?
Stockhocker you are correct. Although I dont believe the Nigerians do it maliciously. I just think it is in their culture as Rancho noted earlier today.
They want you to think everything is going well when in fact there are still some bumps in the road. They are trying to put on a brave face to the rest of the world.
The mistake they make is the constant promise of awards on a given day. That is where they lose major credibility.
Having said all that my problem is with the Sao Tomeans and not the Nigerians.
Carvalho, the STP Oil Minister was also quoted as saying the Nigerians would withold Block 1 money in addition to demanding repayment on the $10 million debt if no decisions on awards are made by Sao Tome.
So the pressure is definitely beginning to be applied and the Sao Tomeans know it.
These are the two most positive and relevant points from the article. This source is on the National petroleum Council and he stated the following:
1) There will probably be a decision within 15 days.
2) He had formed the impression that the Sao Tome side would yield.
"The same source stressed that while the Joint Ministerial Council had not resolved the questions in disagreement between the countries, there will probably be a decision within fifteen days by the heads of state, Olusengu Obasanjo of Nigeria and Fradique de Menezes of Sao Tome and Principe."
"The same source revealed that although he had formed the impression that the Sao Tome side would yield, Nigeria had presented to Sao Tome an ultimatum to pay its share of nearly $15 million resulting from the serviceces of the Joint Development Authority of the two countries."
27/05/2005 - 3:15pm
São Tomé: Nigéria e São Tomé em desacordo sobre venda de blocos de petróleo
Sao Tome and Nigeria in Disagreement Over Sale Of Oil Blocks
São Tomé, 27 Mai (Lusa) -- A Nigéria e São Tomé e Príncipe discordam sobre o processo de adjudicação de blocos de petróleo de uma zona de exploração conjunta entre os dois países, revelou hoje à Lusa fonte oficial.
Nigeria and Sao Tome are in diagreement over the the process of awarding blocks of oil in a joint exploration zone between the two countries, an official source revealed to Lusa today.
Segundo uma fonte do conselho petrolífero do arquipélago que pediu anonimato, a reunião iniciada terça-feira em Abuja, capital da Nigéria, entre as autoridades do petróleo dos dois países, foi infrutífera, por falta de entendimento entre as partes sobre as propostas para a licitação de cinco blocos da zona de comum acordo de exploração.
According to the source on the national petroleum council who demanded anonymity, a meeting that began Tuesday in Abuja, the Nigeran capital, between the authorites on petroleum from both countries, was fruitless, as it failed to reach an understanding between the parties on bids in the auction of five blocks of their agreed-upon exploration zone.
A mesma fonte sublinhou que não tendo o conselho ministerial de exploração conjunto resolvido a questão de desentendimento entre as partes, a decisão será, provavelmente, tomada dentro de quinze dias pelos chefes de Estado, Olusengu Obasanjo da Nigéria e Fradique de Menezes de São Tomé e Príncipe.
The same source stressed that while the Joint Ministerial Council had not resolved the questions in disagreement between the countries, there will probably be a decision within fifteen days by the heads of state, Olusengu Obasanjo of Nigeria and Fradique de Menezes of Sao Tome and Principe.
A fonte acrescentou que a discórdia prende-se com o critério de selecção de empresas concorrentes aos blocos, com São Tomé e Príncipe, de um lado, a defender a proposta monetária apresentada pelas petrolíferas, contrariando a posição da Nigéria que dá prioridade ao tempo estabelecido para produção do petróleo.
The source added that the discord was fanned by the criteria for selection of companies competing for the blocks, with Sao Tome and Principem on one side preferring the monetary bids offered for the oil, and with Nigeria in a contrary position saying that the priority should be based on the time needed to produce the oil.
A mesma fonte referiu ainda que, como forma de pressionar a parte são-tomense a ceder, a Nigéria teria apresentado um ultimato a São Tomé e Príncipe para pagar uma divida de cerca de 15 milhões de dólares resultante dos serviços da autoridade conjunta de exploração entre os dois Países.
The same source revealed that although he had formed the impression that the Sao Tome side would yield, Nigeria had presented to Sao Tome an ultimatum to pay its share of nearly $15 million resulting from the serviceces of the Joint Development Authority of the two countries.
A delegação ministerial de São Tomé e Príncipe, que regressou esta tarde desta falhada missão petrolífera em Abuja, não prestou qualquer informação à imprensa, relegando os jornalistas para uma posterior comunicação ao país.
The ministerial delegation that returned to Sao Tome and Principe this afternoon from the failed oil mission in Abuja would not lend any insights to the press, directing journalists to a later national address.
Além do ministro dos Recursos Naturais, Arlindo de Carvalho, integraram a delegação são-tomense, o ministro dos Negócios Estrangeiros, Ovídio Pequeno, o ministro da Defesa, Óscar Sousa, o ministro de Plano e Finanças, Adelino Castelo David, e um assessor do Presidente da República para o sector petrolífero.
Beyond the minister of the Natural Resources, Arlindo de Carvalho, included in the Sao Tome delegation were Minister of Foreign Commerce Ovidio Pequeno, Minister of Defense Oscar Sousa, the Minister of Planning and Finance Adelineo Castelo David, and the advisor to the President of the Republic on the petroleum sector.
Esta reunião sem êxito que aconteceu quatro dias depois do Presidente da Nigéria, Olusengu Obasanjo, ter efectuado uma visita relâmpago a São Tomé e Príncipe, surgiu na sequência de um pedido da parte são-tomense no sentido de se rever o processo de adjudicação de blocos da zona de sobreposição.
The unsuccessful meeting happened four days after Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo had put in motion a stormy meeting in Sao Tome and Principe at the request of the Sao Tomese, who felt strongly that the award of the of blocks in the zone had to be reversed.
Há quase duas semanas, as autoridades de São Tomé e Príncipe, sobretudo, a Assembleia Nacional, exortaram o Governo de Damião Vaz Almeida a rever as propostas do documento antes da conclusão do processo de adjudicação de blocos face à denúncia de irregularidades.
It's been two weeks since authorities on Sao Tome and Principe, especially the National Assembly, implored the government of Prime Minister Damiao Vas d'Almeida to reject the bid document before completing the process of awarding the blocks in the facce of criticism of irregularities.
A denúncia de irregularidades na adjudicação de blocos foi tornada pública há três semanas na capital de São Tomé através da imprensa por alegado favoritismo de petrolíferas, nas quais, alguns dirigentes são-tomenses são accionistas, envolvendo figuras próximas do Presidente da República, Fradique de Menezes.
The criticism of irregularities in the award of the oil blocks has generated a public tempest in the press for three weeks in the Sao Tome capital over allegations of favoritis, springing from t some Sao Tomese directors and shareholdders involved who are close to the President of the Republic, Fradique de Menezes.
No âmbito da polémica instalada em São Tomé, o Movimento Libertação de São Tomé e Príncipe-Partido Social-democrata (MLSTP-PSD) no governo acusou o Presidente Fradique de Menezes de estar a violar a lei-quadro das receitas de petróleo em benefício próprio.
In the ambience of controversy prevailing in Sao Tome, the ruling Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and Princiope and the Social Democratic Party accused President Fradique de Menezes of violating the law by having benefitted himself from oil revenues.
Assinado em Fevereiro de 2001, o tratado de exploração conjunta entre os dois Países estabelece 60 por cento de receitas para Nigéria e 40 para São Tomé e Príncipe.
Signed in February of 2001, the joint exploration treaty between the two countries provides that 60 percent of the revenues go to Nigeria and 40 percent to Sao Tome and Principe.
RCN.
High hopes, what are you going to do next? Show us an article that Richard Nixon was impeached?
That article is old news. We saw that a couple of days ago.
Well time to leave one frustrating situation (the JDZ) for another frustrating situation (my awful golf game).
Hang in there everyone.
Almost time to go golfing so one last point. Sao Tome right now is absolutely embarrasing themselves on the world stage. I recall someone posting several months ago on RB that Sao Tome is not ready for the world stage yet and whoever that person is they could not have been more correct.
I do not understand why de Menezes is not taking a stand and signing off on awards. Why is he letting Patrice run the show? Is de Menezes just a puppet? He is the President of Sao Tome, unfortunately he never acts like it.
It would be like George Bush being President and letting Bill Clinton make all of the decisions. I just dont get it.
I do agree with you on some of Joe's Headlines. They are schizo to say the least. But he is just trying to stir things up to bring more readers to his blog. Controversy sells.
Well we can agree to disagree. I hardly think Joe Shea is in cahoots with anyone nor does he have the money to purchase vast quantities of shares himself. Radio Africa must be in cahoots to pick up cheap shares as is Lusa using that line of argument because that is where the news originally came from. Not Joe Shea. Joe Shea just reported the news that was already out there.
Now if you want to claim that the Sao Tomean officials who made those statements are in cahoots to bring the share price down I guess I could understand that. I dont believe it but I could understand it.
The bottom line in this whole thing is that the Nigerians see things one way and the Sao Tomeans see things another way. When we hear from the Nigerian side they tend to paint a rosy picture so when someone reports what the Nigerians say (ie Mark) it would tend to make the person reporting it (ie Marvol, Swinging K) sound positive and hence makes the share price go up.
When we hear from the Sao Tomean side they tend to be negative so when someone reports that (ie Joe Shea or Homeport) they are themselves percieved as negative and the share price tends to go down.
But in both instances it is not the messenger (ie Mark, Swinging, Homeport or Joe) who is the cause of the problem. It is the source of the message (the Nigerians and the Sao Tomeans) that are effecting the share price.
I dont thinks its any vast conspiracy. I think when news is bad the share price goes down and when its good the price goes up. Its really that simple. And yesterday was not good news by anyones standards so the price went down.
Im not saying that this thing is going to arbitration. I really hope it doesnt come to that. If it does I hope the anonymous poster was right in saying that they could still award blocks right now even of there is to be an arbitration meeting in Paris in the summer.
By the way, if we dont make money on this stock we could always make a made for TV movie on this whole awards process. No one could even have dreamed all this up in Hollywood with all the twists and turns and all of the different characters.
And dont think for a minute that Sir Emeka Offor didnt see this whole thing coming a long time ago.
Why do you think he put such a strong lineup of partners together with the best technical offers?
Because he probably is two steps ahead and knew that if this thing were to be held up and go through arbitration that he would need to have the best offers on the table. And that he does. That way he doesnt lose in the court of world opinion.
By the way, IMHO Patrice Trovoado is the main problem here. Barry morgan said as much two weeks ago in his last update so Im not saying anything new here. Its amazing this one person apparently carries so much weight. He apparently is the one fighting for Anadarko and EEL and according to Barry was the most difficult person to satisfy in this whole thing. Whether that is actually true or not is anyone's guess.
I think the Nigerians are aware of this and that is why they have not budged an inch. And to that I say, good for you Obasanjo! The Nigerians know that the companies they selected would stand up through any arbitration process and they would win the arbitraton. That is why they dont feel the need to change "even a single comma". Even the World Bank agreed with the Nigerians in Noble over Anadarko.
So IMHO Sao Tome doesnt have a leg to stand on.
I disagree with those crucifying Joe Shea, Homeport, or Markvol for that matter. To assert that Joe was responsible for the sell off yesterday is just plain wrong.
There was a selloff yesterday because de Menenez did not sign. And then two other things occurred: One, that the Sao Tomean delegates said in mid afternoon that the Nigerians are difficult to negotiate with and that the block selections favored Nigeria at the expense of Sao Tome. And then later in the afternoon word filtered that the major hang up is still technical competence vs. higher signature bonus. IMHO that is what really sent the price into a free fall. That issue was supposed to be resolved months ago. The good thing is that there was some heavy buying right at the end that lifted the share price.
To blame Joe or Homeport for that matter is as ridiculous as blaming Mark that we dont have awards yet. Actually homeport and mutwadadi are the only people that have been proven correct thoughout this whole process. So why should they be hung out to dry? So homeport, thanks for your input, I greatly appreciate it even though its not always something I want to hear. And obviously Mark thanks for taking the time to update us.
Which leads me to my next point. What do you think of this anonymous message posted on the blog last night. I realize it could be a prank but it would be quite an interesting conlusion. Here is the post:
Watch very closely this weekend for the news.
I`ll site my sources as very close to the lastest meetings. Saturday, around 11:00am Pacific time release for those looking for PR`s, if not leaked sooner.
I`ll state simply, that one of the principles was told they`ed be cut off completely, and all bank funds withheld if they didn`t fall in line with the agreed upon awarding and the awarding of some blocks would go ahead without the sign off.
It will be dealt with in due course to all objections, but the majority were in agreement that the awarding must be completed.
Both principles likely will be in Paris to make their case this Summer, but that will not impede the progress for awarded O&G`s companies in the interim, they`ll have complete reassurance of this with backing of U.S. interest.
By Anonymous, at 9:49 PM
I wouldn't call the UN if I were you. One of the Sao Tomeans warned against doing that a few days ago.
GEE, thanks for the input but how would they go about adjusting those percentages now? Shouldnt that have been done at the JMC Meeting?
Personally it seems as if everyone is a little bit to blame.
Are you talking about EEL or ERHC? Huh Patrice??
Im assuming it was a big buy. The price was close to .60 and then went to .6250.
700,000 shares went through in the last 15 minutes. Someone either bought alot or sold alot.
Hopefully it was a buy.
Rancho,
The JDA is always going to make everything sound as if it were ok. They dont want the outside world to know how far apart things really are. So they put a positive spin on everything. In fact the JDA told us several months ago that the issue of high signature bonus vs. technical competence was over and done with and had been resolved.
How many times when people have called and asked "are awards this week?" they answer with "well certainly" as if the person asking the question is dumb for even asking only to see that no awards took place.
Thats my answer.
Yes but the JMC always tries to put a positive spin on everything.
Even though the World bank tried to explain to Sao Tome that the selections made were to their benefit. They are still arguing for the "high signature bonus."
Unbelievable.
Noble is up because someone issued a buy rating on them. Pioneer is up also. Most mid tier oil stocks are up today.
His public comments about ERHC to the press.
de Menezes certainly doesnt seem to be too appreciative. He seems as if he dislikes ERHC greatly and loves Exxon.
Its not Obasanjo Im worried about lol.
5. On the issue of block awards of the 2004 JDZ Licensing Round, the JMC adopted a harmonizing position on all the blocks subject to the endorsement of the Heads of State as provided for in the JDZ Treaty.
6. The JMC wishes to extend its sincere appreciation to all the companies that participated in this exercise, prospective partners, and all the stakeholders for their patience and the sustained interest in the activities of the JDZ. JMC appeals to all concerned to exercise more patience and understanding while spirited efforts are made to secure a speedy endorsement by the States Parties.
CNR is a totally different animal IMHO. First of all they were basing everything on ONE high impact well. So it was all or nothing. Whereas ERHE will have multiple high impact wells on multiple blocks. Secondly, they (CNR) tend to issue gawdy press releases and overpromised while underdelivering. ERHC rarely has done that. CNR has that kind of reputation in the industry thats why I always avoided the stock. This stock has much more potential. I actually believe ERHE will be undervalued after awards. It will take time for it to reach a price level that reflects the enormous amount of oil and ng potential it will have percentages in.
Having said that if awards dont get done this will all be a moot point.
Mark,
Thanks for the communique. Did Sam offer any other info with regards to timelines? Such as when they expect the heads of state to sign off?
Im assuming he didnt. He is probably sick of promising things as well.
Thats no excuse. Dont they read the content of their own articles. And of course it mentions ERHC, so that it shows up under ERHC anytime someone looks up stock information on them on yahoo. So tomorrow when someone looks to see their ERHC stock quote on yahoo, that article with that ridiculous headline will be fully displayed for all to see.
Im not into conspiracy theories but that seems awfully shady to me.
The headline doesnt match up with the content. Felix, makes it sound as if the JMC could have awarded the blocks tonight without the signatures of the heads of state. That is simply not true.
"Reuters.com - No Spin. No Agenda. Just the Facts. As they happen."
Thats what runs across the top of the headline....
How ironic........
Alsoer then why was the headline so negative?? What is it with journalists and their penchant for bi-polar headlines? This Felix Onuah is a perfect example. He goes from one extreme to the other with his headlines.
Kind of reminds me of someone else we know lol.
j/k Joe
What needs to be known is:
1) Did all members of the JMC come to agreement? Last JMC meeting one of the Sao Tome delagates was not in agreement which led to it going to the Sao Tome Oil Ministry and Parliament. If they are all in agreement than they can bypass those entities and go directly do the heads of state for signature.
2) Will de Menezes sign off on awards? Or will he say they need to do a further inquiry? Hopefully he is operating in good faith and will sign off.
The content of the article sounds positive but the title of the article is obviously negative.
"A communique issued after the ministerial meeting in the Nigerian capital said the two parties had come to a "harmonised position on all the blocks," but added that this was "subject to the endorsement of the heads of state."
I was under the impression that the heads of state had to sign off no matter what. So why is that viewed so negatively?
"Two parties had come to a harmonized position on all the blocks."
Maybe that is just spin to make it seem like everything was smoothed over. But harmonized means "in agreement".
Anyone have any thoughts.
Sao Tome/Nigeria fail to award oil blocks again
Thu May 26, 2005 05:46 PM ET
By Felix Onuah
ABUJA, May 26 (Reuters) - Sao Tome and Nigeria failed again on Thursday to award oil exploration licences after a two-day meeting that sought to end five months of delays plagued by discord and corruption allegations.
A communique issued after the ministerial meeting in the Nigerian capital said the two parties had come to a "harmonised position on all the blocks," but added that this was "subject to the endorsement of the heads of state."
At the previous ministerial meeting in April, the two sides also said they had forwarded recommendations to the heads of state for endorsement.
The offshore blocks are in deep water in the Gulf of Guinea, one of the world's exploration hotspots since a series of huge oil discoveries over the last decade.
Sao Tome, a tiny and impoverished nation of 170,000 people, has been rocked by coup attempts and accusations of corruption as it prepares to become the latest African petro-state. Minister of Natural Resources Arlindo Carvalho tendered his resignation last week, saying it was not possible to work in a climate of allegations of irregularities in the oil talks.
But his resignation was not accepted by President Fradique de Menezes, who sacked his petroleum adviser over the delays earlier in the month.
The two countries are engaged in their second licensing round for five oil blocks. The first round was aborted after just one exploration contract was awarded, for $123 million, to a consortium led by U.S. giant ChevronTexaco (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) .
The second round went through the bidding stage in December, receiving bids as high as $175 million, but officials have been squabbling over which companies should have how much of each block.
QUESTIONS
Nigeria said at the start of the latest meeting that the prolonged delay was calling into question the integrity of the licensing and the partnership of the two countries.
"If we continue to allow extraneous factors to guide our thoughts and decisions it will seriously affect the bond of partnership," junior minister of foreign affairs, Abubakar Tanko told reporters on Tuesday.
In a treaty signed in 2000, the neighbors agreed to jointly administer the formerly disputed offshore area.
Nigeria is the world's eighth largest exporter. Sao Tome produces no oil, but geologists believe its offshore areas could contain giant new fields.
The United States hopes to import a quarter of its oil from the Gulf of Guinea region in a decade, up from 14 percent now.
Some political forces in Sao Tome are not happy that a little-known U.S.-based company ERHC Energy (ERHE.OB: Quote, Profile, Research) has obtained preferential stakes in many of the blocks on offer.
President Menezes survived a military coup in 2003 by giving the military rights to oversee oil deals. Last year, four ministers were reshuffled in a political row over allegedly shady oil deals.
Last June, Sao Tome sacked two senior members of the joint development authority for unspecified reasons and nominated one of its citizens to replace a Nigerian at the head of the body. The authority released a statement in the same month saying bribery of licensing officials would not be tolerated.
Obviously an attempt at a hatchet job on ERHC.
Of course de Menezes would like to exclude ERHC from the rest of the JDZ. That is costing Sao Tome signature bonus money. But that is water under the bridge and that is not the main hold up.
This part is also comical:
"According to investigations by Nigeria's independent press, a company belonging to Nigerian businessman Emeka Offor holds around 50 percent of the shares in ERHC."
Oh duh, really? Boy that was some investigation. Who would have known Chrome Energy (aka Emeka Offor) holds around 50% of the shares?
About 1000 posters on RB thats who.
Hi Curt.