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If it won't be stopped it will mean - for me - that the result - at least / especially the SEs - aren't overwhelming / robust & consistent.
- the median follow-up will be enough / massive
- if 80% isn't overwhelming , the remaining "20%" won't change it
Thanks. That makes sense. Based on HDG's opinion, not everything. but a lot is riding on the 80% look. The results have to be overwhelming / robust to stop. If they are,.. then there is a strong likelihood we will see some robust price action (data leak) 1 week (at least) before the announcement. That's the time to load up on calls.
I can't wait for Marzan's call options to skyrocket :)
CB,
AMRN option volume has come to life for the 80% interim look...yet the stock price has remained depressed
I would not play the options because any sharp move up on positive news, will in the very short term after such an event be beaten down by short-sellers.
What do you mean they had nothing to PR back then? Ever heard of Vascepa? How many off label promotions have you read about - other than yesterday's PR about ANCHOR. They could have released that 2 yrs ago. If you think this last minute fanfare is effective then you are up at night. Cuz I got news for you. Their only objective is to force a pop in the pod so they can dilute.
Why can't you comprehend that Mr. Positive?
"CURRENT STATE OF AMARIN's AFFAIRS
There has been a lot of misconception lately and I want to set the record straight. Some posters have said that Amarin is doing nothing - that is BS.
Yesterday's bell ringing, today's AHA hosting, creation of a StockTwits userID, pop-up ads, etc. are Amarin's attempts to get their word across - I previously criticized them for not stepping up their PR game, but the above paragraph certainly takes care of that. Great job, management!"
BB you should stop with the ANCHOR nonsense, it is beyond repetitive and does nothing positive
Amarin ringing the bell is like a touchdown dance after a fumble
Haha,.. good one. How does a company get to ring the opening bell after missing their recent earnings call?
Stuck in the corner of an apex, on light demand volume.
Thinking like a criminal,.. if there is a cabal who is out to destroy AMRN, they'll probably emerge to upstage tomorrow’s event ceremony. Amarin rings the bell, stock rallies, followed by a nasty bear raid. It wouldn’t surprise me:(
Maybe it will be different this time (fingers crossed)
Options are a terrible play simply because when they announce the trial is going to be continued the volatility in those calls is going to disappear along with your money..Buying and holding shares is much safer because there is little baked in anticipation in the share price.
You're hardly one to advise Marzan. Options limit losses. Holding shares until the bitter end of a company's existence can create a much bigger loss. Fact/not opinion.
JL, James Murphy brings up some good points:
•Amrn down 73% over the last 5 years
•Amarin Ceo said on conference 1st quarter call that a lot of imformation will going out to media and investors from here on .Now I know what he means,great to see they are standing up for investors and keeping pps up.Dont be quiet John we can take all the good news you throw at us.
•Read My Lips.Ceo will do damage to Amrn pps tomorrow by just repeating same bull
•CANT UNDERSTAND why amarin wastes time and money on doing these conf as he has nothing to say for the next year of ANY interest to move the share price
•I don't need to run a company to know it has board members and a CEO who over the past 3 years have done nothing to get a partner in the USA or Europe or any investment just millions in options for themselves and more dilution of shares from a company that was $19 and now $2+.
He’s absolutely right (nobody else here plays the Devil’s advocate). You, on the other hand, pump the science until there’s no tomorrow while technically ignoring any warning signs. You did the exact same thing with GTCB. You slammed other board members when they so much as mentioned the poor PPS performance. Unfortunately that strategy couldn’t stop the inevitable demise of GTCB.
I’m not saying the same consequence will unfold for AMRN (it could/ I doubt it) but it bugs me how you continue to trash others for raising legitimate concerns.
Two times, in as many months, prices were squeezed on support and management had an opportunity to affect + price movement. They didn’t. The street is losing patience with the company’s continued failure to support AMRN SP in any fashion.
If in fact they do continue the trial (I doubt they will), it sure would be nice to see the PPS trickle up on positive developments induced by management. Instead, any prospects for higher prices simply won’t be on wall street radars for the next 8 months. Translation: dead money.
If you want to be objective/constructive (instead of ganging up on James), why don’t you turn your attention to these questions and provide us some answers:
• Why wasn't the company more vocal about the Cherry results and
the other supporting trials/research? All they seem to say is,
“Things are tracking as expected.” (Yeah,.. their compensation
is tracking as expected)
• What happened to China?
• Where’s the X-US deals?
• Why no partner to promote RXs?
• Why no buyer?
• Why is the Street so ho-hum towards the company?
• Where are the off label coupon promotions?
• What has been gained by the IA lawsuit?
• Why are there only a handful of “regulars” on this board who
rehash the same thing over and over and over?
• What has Management done to support shareholders?
Finally, if the future's so bright, why no insider purchases and why doesn't Costco ever have Vascepa in stock?
Losing money sucks. It's a shame that your apparent enjoyment of that attempts to rob James from his own expressed opinion.
FFS
Rose,
"No question I think the odds are that the trial continues (hope not) and again cannot believe the RRR at final would be >35% and yet not stopped at IA 80%."
"So while 4gm worked in JELIS, maybe those very sick need 5gm to offset all above?"
And maybe they only need 2G. Remember the futsu Nihonjin with a 2G base level has much better CV health than those who consume little to no fish products.
Raf, I agree. In addition, lest we forget the other pleiotropic effects, many will become somewhat addicted to taking V once they realize they don't feel well, or can't breathe as well or their IBS starts acting up, etc., etc., if they stray from their dosage. In other words it works and the effects are felt immediately, but are short lived if the drug is discontinued for a matter of days. I'm not worried about compliance in the tx arm.
The placebo arm, who knows. Oh(oil) well...
Kiwi, true, but not at the expense of the research participants. JL and others might disagree, but not the Bioethics committee.
They state that once a trial has demonstrated a statistically definitive and clinically significant difference between the control group and the experimental arm, it should be terminated to protect the research participants, even if continuation of the research would be of interest to the medical and scientific communities.
The JUPITER trial was stopped early at the recommendation of its Independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board after a median follow-up of 1.9 years (maximum follow-up 5 years)
Oh come on Kiwi, you can't compare the two.
Stoppage at year 2 our of 5 (Jupiter) is not the same as year 4 out of 4.5 (Reduce - IT)
JL, Sorry if this is over your comprhension level..
Hey Genius...
Running a "RWE study on Vascepa" is not the same as running a "RWE on R-I"
My point was Amarin had hired a company to run a RWE on Vascepa and that might give them some insight as to how the R-I trial would turn out..
Sorry if this is over your comprhension level..
":>) JL
Re: rafunrafun post# 91730
Post # of 107251
raf...
My 70% estimate simply means that I believe the trial is more likely to be halted than not...IMO there is a lot of ignorance about the trial and opinions based on misinformation or poor reasons like 'there have not been many CVD trials that were stopped early...or that it is too tough to beat the statisical hurtles...
Just do not buy those arguments..
JL,
There is no "ethical" principle requiring R-I to be halted simply because the risk reduction in the active arm is very high. Fact is the medical profession demands that risk reduction be shown over a period of time to dispel the notion that the effect is not a short term fluke.
...trials may no longer be considered ethical because they have no reasonable hope of leading to an unequivocal result, or they have already demonstrated a statistically definitive and clinically significant difference between the control group and the experimental arm. Trials that are deemed to be unethical should be terminated to protect the research participants, even if continuation of the research would be of interest to the medical and scientific communities. Because clinical trials often require several years to complete, it is important to monitor them regularly to safeguard the best interests of the participants.
https://bioethicsarchive.georgetown.edu/nbac/clinical/Chap2.html
"Amarin's RWE study of R-I Excuse me. Let me rephrase with your words, "Amarin's RWE study how R-I turns out has hopefully led them to this level of confidence:"
Good point. How do they have confidence to take such a chance when they're blinded to the results?
Answer: RWE
Maybe Kiwi should ask his wife whether he should reenter his posn or not (in front of the 80% announcement)? Wouldn't it be a shame for those who actually took management's words at face value by exiting in hopes of a cheaper entry closer to the final readout? Then BANG, the volcano blows!
Now consider these 2 JL posts:
Does shortening the trial by 6 months make a big enough difference for them to be forced to dilute, encounter ethical liability risk, and push the explosive growth of their company(and/or buyout) further into the future? Does this new patent change their strategy by mitigating their urge to complete vs halt the trial (assuming the results are positive)?
Another reason to "push their chips all in" (Re: R-IT) as Raf said, and follow through with this new patent.
Wouldn't strategic marketing of SE effects and other pleiotropic benefits help compensate for potentially lesser RX's if the RRR is 25% vs 50%?
Other CVD drugs don't share the same advantage of broad based benefits.
don't have time to argue for the sake of arguing. LOL.
I repeat,
"Most analysts consider the most SIGNIFICANT performance time frame to be the current rally since the latest bottom.
For you to disagree or have an issue with that only exposes your ignorance and/or obstinance . "
You can pick any time frame to paint a picture to meet your agenda. What about the last 30 months, or 6 months... what is the significance in the 18 months that you chose?
we could also wake up and see it go down to $1.
Nice reversal:
comparison with AMRN:
AMRN has shown much better relative performance to the Biotech index since the beginning of 2016. Hardly supports the notion that someone has their foot on AMRN's neck.
Y'all ready to wake up soon one morning and see AMRN at $10.50, one month later $20.00, then buy out 3 months later at $36.00?
HR,
"how do you see this playing out?"
"It's like comparing a rookie in the NBA to Michael Jordan."
That's exactly what it's like, especially if the rookie was a collegiate star who took his team on his back and led them to an NCAA championship. Has a 40" vertical, smooth pull up 15 footer, can dunk from the foul line, juke you out of your socks and has a quiet fire to win unlike any other rookie.
Will he succeed in the NBA? I'd bet on it. Are there other examples? Yep; Kobe, D-wade, T-mac, G-Hill, etc.
AMRN has many similar comparisons to other companies that began small.
Anything COULD happen, but You failed to follow the logic of my post. IF R-IT is successful and the stock gaps to the same average as others, such occurrences rarely pull back to fill the gap.
The point I was conveying is that the price continues to climb 2x the closing price on the day of the gap up and it does so (on average) in 1 month.
How to manage a runaway gap on +R-IT results? Don’t sell too soon..
AERI is another recent example of how a simple TA rule can maximize gains vs "selling the gap before it pulls back."
If you refuse to sell until a lower high is followed by a lower low, you would be up +450% since the bottom.
If you were to have executed the same strategy with JAZZ, you would have gained approximately +4,865% more than selling the initial gap (+488%), for a total return of +29,000%.
Nearly all Bios that gap on news display this huge difference in profit when this strategy is employed. Check em out: ACAD, AMAG, ARIA, BCRX, BIIB, CPXX, EXAS, KERX, QLTI, etc.
Using a few of these as expamples, when averaging the respective gap gains + post 1 month gap appreciation,
we see the huge difference in the pps rise. If applied to AMRN (assuming a gap at $3.45, based on these averages) the price would gap to $10.75 and further rise to $19.01 1 month later. Very realistic considering rumors of a buyout on the heels of good R-IT results.
You can see, the biggest gains don't come on the gap. Rather they occur in response to and on the heels of a gap up.
Looks like we get to test $2.87 after all??
I respectfully disagree. Here's how the price action unfolded last week on an intra-day chart:
Conclusion? Bleeding has stopped, buyers are nibbling. If this current turn in momentum can push prices through the down TL and falling 50 day EMA, then I think we've seen the lows and hopefully some fire starts spurting out of AMRN's belly.
By the way, PBYI is a good example of manipulation, followed by massive buying in front of an FDA panel vote.
Perhaps AMRN missed by a penny for the same reason?
Still valid until it takes out Wednesday's low. Attack next time when you have somewhat of a clue what you're talking about.
Thank you. Shocking numbers! Hoping they are in the ball park :)
What is the consensus time frame guess for 80% IA? Middle of July? Earlier? Later?
TIA,
FFS