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natgas: robry graphs updated...
http://amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html
comments below (in quotes) are in regard to reclaimed gold mines in general, hopefully not applicable to KGI...
FWIW, believe KGI has much blue sky from its mines (review analyst report link in i-box), but do not believe 20M ounces per E Charters post is likely. FWIW, KGI management comments to me indicated they hope to find up to 5M ounces within the next 3 years... This seems optimistic but certainly possible given the new 04 break and new Three Year CAMP-WIDE Exploration Program (see http://www.klgold.com/news_releases/oct_08_2003.pdf ). Nonetheless my projection is for 3.5M resource ounce total within 2 years which I think is achievable...
"Sat Nov 1 13:53:46 2003 [FROM: ManitobaBlackBear] -- A mine that was closed, was closed for a reason - cost, low grade, unstable, environmental, etc. Usually it is cost. So, these projects have to have high stable gold prices to get their return. Not to say a stock such as this cannot do very well in a gold bull. But there is usually a cap as the resource base is well known - lacking in blue sky if you will. The projects such as Minefinders have the low cost feature and the blue sky as reserves are consistently moving up (we hope). As the gold bull moves up (i think i talked about this in one of the old junior mining updates) we will see a lot of these reclamation stocks as well as many "gold in dirt" stories. For me this is really a risk/benefit question. What if POG drops? Would you rather own an old, uneconmic mine or an economic resource? "
natgas: good article...
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2003/1030.html
updated market cap per resource ounce...
added KGI to the list...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1669855
Market Cap per Resource Ounce
few notes justifying higher KGI market cap per ounce:
1. KGI is already in production vs. the others (and fully permitted). KGI produced 25,000 ounces in fiscal 2002 and will likely have 40,000 oz annual run rate by end of this year. Already producing justifies a somewhat higher price (less discounted cash flow). Plans are to increase production to 120,000 ounces per year by calendar year 2006.
2. Believe it is much more likely for KGI to double their resource ounces than AGI or CBD. In fact the majority of KGI 1.77M resource ounces are in the proven/M&I reserve category (under 15% in the inferred category), and all reserves are only from the Macassa Mine. Proving up reserve ounces of 3.5M ounces seems reasonable during the next 2 years, IMO, but cash costs will likely be higher at US$205 than the others.
3. KGI already owns a mill capable of producing over 250K ounces per year with minor capex $ modifications as well as a tailings pond with over 10 year capacity.
4. KGI drilling/finding cost will be substantially less than its peers, IMO. It is cheaper to drill from existing pits underground than to drill from the surface.
5. Have not fully calculated in KGI's proceeds from options, should be a bit higher reducing the market cap per resource oz $.
Another plus is that this latest PP included no warrants (i.e. not even a half warrant, just gave the underwriters a meagre amount of 2 year options @ 3.60). Hence, not as much dilution as with full or half warrants. KGI Management owns over 25% of KGI, British institutions own over 20%, and RBC and Sprott also have decent size positions...
purchased more KGI @ C$3.50 and TanRange @ US$1.22
sold a bit of AGI @ C$2.95 to fund these purchases...
both have found support it appears and WmR and MACD have turned or appear about to... we'll see...
that article was rather feisty..., liked it very much as well...
1.75M ‘flow-through’ shares C$4.00 10/27/03
Date of Issuance: October 27, 2003
Place of Issuance: Vancouver, British Columbia
4. Summary of Material Change
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has entered into an agreement with Fort House Inc. and Octagon Capital Corporation (collectively, the “Agents”) with respect to a private placement financing on a best efforts basis of up to 1,750,000 ‘flow-through’ shares at a price of CDN$4.00 per share for gross proceeds of CDN$ 7,000,000.
http://www.sedar.com/csfsprod/data41/filings/00583583/00000001/C%3A%5CFilings%5CStacey%5CKirk%5C53-9...
created new board for KGI...
also, news on KGI, 1.75M PP flow thru shares @ C$4.00:
http://www.sedar.com/csfsprod/data41/filings/00583583/00000001/C%3A%5CFilings%5CStacey%5CKirk%5C53-9...
New board created for Kirkland Lake
well sort of..., Kitco has not posted the market lease rates for today, 10/30, still has yesterdays 10/29...
looks like the rising dollar is whacking gold today...
http://fast.quote.com/fq/cts/livechart.html?symbols=DX00Y&wd=750&ht=460
natgas: covered my XTO short for beer money
short at $23.33 and $23.55 and covered at $23.30
natgas + 55, bullish
many expected +75
Storage Highlights:
Working gas in storage was 3,121 Bcf as of Friday, October 24, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 51 Bcf less than last year at this time and 82 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,039 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 8 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 30 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 48 Bcf above the 5-year average of 830 Bcf after a net injection of 19 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 25 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 6 Bcf. At 3,121 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
Squanderville to issue new debt Nov 10-13
US will try to keep POG down coming into this auction...?
Posted By: amarksp
Date: Thursday, 30 October 2003, at 9:31 a.m.
In Response To: WARREN BUFFETT (amarksp)
that's the schedule for 3,5, & 10 year notes...
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf
kastel link on Buffet's squanderville...
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19444320
copper, okay I'm game to consider a short...
ticker PD
Phelps Dodge is a large, purest play copper stock (also BHP and RTP have exposure)... Released earnings tonight and trading over $60 (52 week high), hefty debt @ .73:1, no dividend...
Any other copper companies to consider...
great day, even KGI woke up today..., with a 4.5% gain
a month ago or so, cut back my gold stocks to 54% of my portfolio (and really have not added, just rearranged) but now gold stocks are over 72% of my portfolio just on price rise alone of my core GBN, AGI, and CBD positions (my 3 largest) and still retaining smaller core positions of Chesapeake Gold, Endeavour Mining Cap, and newbie KGI; --INM and a small bit of Tan Range still in the trading account...
"stay long on gold stocks"
what is really going to prove interesting is the 4 month hold period expiration on most every junior that conducted PP in July and August. two of which are AGI and CBD...
CBD $3.75 wt, 4 months end 11/27
AGI $1.75 wt, 4 months end 12/19
am wondering whether "da Vancouver 2 step gold boyz" ramp the market into Dec, sell their shares/exercise their options, and leave a few bagholders...
anyone else share this concern..., or will it be different this time?
thanks for the CAZ chart, your viewpoint much appreciated...
appears to me that C$1.09 level offers support and that is also the 50% fib re-trace...
Regardless, fundamentally like CAZ and will add to my position if it goes under C$1.00. FWIW, have hedged my current natgas via covered calls. Thanks again for your comments...
"got stopped out of CAZ"
do you have a re-purchase strategy on CAZ... continue to like this stock since it's oily, but only have a small position...
looking to add, what would be your re-entry point, accumulation still appears evident to me...
gold alert... lease rates...
may be wrong, but do not like this lease rate rise
sold a few positions, waiting to see what POG does after London close...
TGX, recollect one of you gurus like this one...
TRUE NORTH GEMS INC. (TGX : TSX-V : C$1.34) - SPECULATIVE BUY - 12-MONTH
TARGET PRICE: N/A
Graeme Currie
Comment: True North's blue beryl discovery confirmed as unique to Canada True North Gems is a Vancouver-based junior focused on emerald gemstone mineral exploration and development. Their primary asset, located in the Watson Lake mining district in the Yukon Territory, is called the Regal Ridge Emerald property. In August, the company also announced the discovery of a rare blue beryl gemstone on their True Blue property. Yesterday, it was reported that consulting mineralogists and gemologists have confirmed the blue beryl as a unique type of aquamarine, with the release noting this discovery as the first of its kind. Thus it may represent a new gemstone discovery in Canada. Such a find will require substantial follow-up work in our view. However, it does certainly enhance the exploration leverage that this unique exploration junior provides. The True Blue property is located some 100 kilometres north of the Regal Ridge property. The company indicated to us that the discovery is from an area of roughly 600 by 100 metres within which outcrop of blue beryl is identified. As of yet, no work program has been defined for next year. We recommend the shares for risk accounts, and we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation. No target price can as yet be estimated due to the early stage of exploration.
Frank: get rid of the No-Bozo icon... here is a much better board picture... :)
Just change Clifford Pickover with Mostly Classical...
from bearingup @ bearforum regarding ORN
I had a little of this one when it's predecessor company died and was reverse split 100 to 1. I read that the geologist in the new company was good and it would rise like the phoenix but I didn't really believe it. But I held on to the stock since what I had was virtually worthless. Well, I was wrong. It has risen from 3 cents and stands at 1.70 today - a rise of over 5000% since July.
thanks for that link...
let us know whenever Weldon updates this... thanks!
natgas - robry...
Gas Flows
by: robry825 (M/Michigan) 10/28/03 11:20 am
Msg: 19567 of 19573
Gas flows for last week were consistent with an injection of 73 BCF, which would be strongly bearish against the baseline (45 BCF on 87 demand-days). I also am looking for an additional increase to stocks of 37 BCF from EIA backdata revisions, elevating total estimated storage to 3138 BCF as of 10/24/03.
Flows suggested 26% of operators increased injections over the previous week, 68% decreased injections, and 6% maintained the previous weeks activities. Flows also suggested 80% had net injections for the week, 16% had net withdrawals, and 4% were unchanged. Postings also suggested 8% of storage operators were full at weeks end.
Most types of postings/methodologies fell in close allignment with the gas-flow model, with the dailies also forecasting 73 BCF, downstream modeling 72 BCF, and the old gas-flow methodology 69 BCF. Only capacity postings bucked the trend with 80 BCF in estimated injections.
NEXT WEEKS EIA REPORT: The beat goes on! Gas flows suggest 24 BCF injected thus far (through Tuesday morning) puting us on track for an 50-60 week in next weeks EIA report as we slowly pinch out injection season.
-Robry825
gold - goldensextant...
good read...
http://www.goldensextant.com/LandisAMA.html#anchor537636
Nov03 NatGas with open interest
futures expire tomorrow, will be interesting...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1644871
natgas, put in a few stinky bids on the light traders...
natgas: watch out...
short XTO at $23.33 , 1/2 position..., scenario below seems reasonable, hedging my other natgas positions...
_______________________
NatGas Setup - Listen Up
by: trevormore03 10/27/03 03:00 pm
Msg: 19496 of 19497
Very interesting situation that has developed in the November natgas contracts. I want to point this out now because there is a very distinct possibility that tomorrow could be Natgas doomsday. Here's why:
Tomorrow the options on Nov natgas expire. The last trade today for this contract was 4.515. The settle price will be close to this number and will be posted in about 15 minutes.
There are approx 10,500 calls outstanding at 4.50. There are only about 24,000 contracts left trading the November contract, so the calls at 4.50 represent almost half of the trading volume left in November. Now, look how close the current price is to that huge open call total. Virtually right on top of it. It is highly likely that the bears try and push the contract price tomorrow below this 4.50 level, at which point an extremely large volume of contracts will need to cover. If that happens it would not be surprising to see natgas literally fall thru the floor as you will have all these contracts being sold at whatever price they can get.
This is exactly what happened 3 weeks ago when the market went the other way....all these shorts needed to cover at that time. The only difference (besides being the exact reverse) this time is that option expiration is staring everybody in the face at tomorrows close, so unlike some shorts who decided to tuff it out three weeks ago (and thereby saved themselves a bunch of money, lol) the callholders will have no choice but to sell. This could get really nasty. Really, really nasty.
Anything could happen, and maybe it comes off as a non-event. Maybe a new weather forecast comes in within the next 24 hours calling for a massive blue norther. Or maybe the bears just don't care and will wait until later in the year to attack that $4 mark. Maybe. But I will be very interested to see where gas opens up tomorrow....if it gaps lower it all over but the crying for the longs (especially if they hold Nov contracts).
See you guys tomorrow at the ballgame. Might be one helluva day.
I got in DEF at C$2.45 a few months back, put in a stop profit at C3.10, interesting company....
Kirkland Lake, two 500K blocks, large cross and another 500K
13:06 3.390 500,000 -0.160 RBC Canaccord
12:53 3.400 12,000 -0.150 Octagon Canaccord
12:53 3.400 5,000 -0.150 Octagon Canaccord
12:53 3.400 3,000 -0.150 Octagon Wolverton
12:51 3.380 10,000 -0.170 Canaccord Canaccord
12:51 3.360 500,000 -0.190 Canaccord Canaccord
added to Kirkland Lake, now have full position..., @US$2.58
Octagon was a heavy seller this AM...
here's a dated article, April 03 which is of interest...
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/april-2003/kirklandlake280403.htm
chart of the year...
"reason I increased my position in Kirkland Gold"
Is this one of your core holdings? What other gold stocks do you own that I don't know about...
What are your core gold/silver holdings?
agree T/A seems favorable for Kirkland
also note institutions (RBC Sprott Tice}:
http://www.lionshares.com/details.cfm?SEARCH=symbol&CUSIP=49740P106&SID=DSUD001%206213275003....
FWIW, KGI will only hit 40000 ounces annual gold production this fiscal year..., problems with dewatering, recommissioning these mines...
looks like the hot money is abandoning INM...
>
may be a good time for further accumulation now for intermediate term invesors waiting for January 04 drilling results...