Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
ok - thanks.
what type of envelope - who was the sender? mail takes a little longer to get tome where i live. I will look for it.
i havent seen it yet but it could be buried in my inbox. when did you receive it and what info was it asking for?
if not comfortable sharing on here - you can email me at thesmalls on yhoo.
thanks
my local package store in the small town in Michigan i live (45-50 min NW of detroit) had it restocked last week. not a huge mover but far from any target demographic the company ever had. owner had no idea how many cases the distributor had but said they had a small number of customers who go through it regularly.
company went dark on Twitter and then came back last week and then dark again. they still appear to be doing promo work so the lights are still on. last event on Twitter was Aug 7 and they had several tweets last week on Wodka feed.
my guess at this point is it is all tied up with Consilium. company stopped reporting and they were into this for $4-5MM.probably have had a couple lifelines since. distillery looked like it should start contributing significantly to top line with contract packaging. since consilium is primary shareholder/lender - my guess is they are looking to find a buyer and keep expenses very tight until then. if they were looking to continue, i would expect the promotions and SM to be considerably more active.
hopefully they pull it out. thought the brand/company had a lot going for them in terms of quality, pricing, marketing, and background. guess Dale got a little too comfortable and/or in over his head with other people's money.
nit2winit - would like to discuss TBEV share structure with you offline if you are interested.
thesmalls on yhoo if you are interested. make the subject TBEV so i can search for it.
thanks
R/s isnt guaranteed but the likelihood is much higher than not. when fishing in muddy waters, you have to expect the majority of fish caught will be bottom feeders but there are plenty of other fish swimming around.
the company/founders have a shaky record at best with shareholders. timing with PRs/announcements are suspect (certainly can be coincidental - i have been in business and dealt with manufacturing a LONG time and know first hand how even the best plans can go off the rails with even the seemingly meaningless interruptions), one devastating R/s already this year, a rather quick notice to increase AS back to 5BB, and what appears to be runaway dilution occurring again the last few weeks with almost NO direct communication from mgmt addressing it and putting that negative speculation/fear to bed.
on the flip side, since earlier this summer when i really started following the stock closely, mgmt has delivered on most of its promises: website, endorsements, Amazon placement, restocking, finance announcement. so - when does the "believability measurement stick" start? how much does past failure (product and company wise along with stock performance) weigh into current deliverables?
the company remains in a precarious debt position and dilution continues. someone/CD holder could dump and take out the entire offer on the BID at $0.0008 at EOD just like they did yesterday. new $5MM agreement may be kicking the can down the road in terms of dilution and/or may not provide capital to remove the toxic debt and solidify share structure. if it DOES provide that capital and mgmt clearly articulates that intent (or already has removed it when 8K is finally filed), then the risk/reward scenario change instantly.
just because the company/mgmt has failed in the past or have done R/s' - does not mean they will fail in the future.
just because it is a pink sheet stock - does not mean it can not make it to a full fledged, profitable and large cap entity.
just because the balance sheet is a train wreck now - does not mean that another entity sees inside information on sales/trending and believes the risk is worth taking out toxic capital and funding it under traditional/more favorable means.
conversely - just because the product is selling out quickly on Amazon does not mean that it is a true measure of consumer demand. if i am converting a couple hundred grand of CD into shares - it would be well worth me to dump a couple grand into buying product off of Amazon to give the illusion of future success and keep demand for the stock/new shares as robust as the demand on Amazon.
just because professional athletes are endorsing this - does not mean the company isnt a scam. ever take a look at the ratio of professional athletes that file for bankruptcy and often around those closest to them scamming them? football players get hit in the head for a living and most of them werent exactly financial advisers in college while getting their Comm or general studies degrees (i knew a bunch of them at Purdue while getting my engineering degree and playing sports there). if they are young and have non guaranteed contracts, $50-100K endorsement means a lot more than Peyton Manning's "brand" being damaged by a scam.
throw in the sophisticated trading practices by the toxic lenders, market makers, hedge funds, naked shorting, and relatively lax/ineffective regulation - it is not easy to make a completely legitimate company in this realm look like a complete scam.
one has to start very slowly trading these stocks and learn the painful lessons with small amounts before scaling up and taking advantage of momentum runs and those below them that refuse to learn, educate themselves, or get their heads out of the clouds.
the company has a long ways to go and that 8K detailing financing and removing risk/uncertainty on share structure going forward could be a turning point for the company. it could also kick long term investors square between the legs with a concurrent R/s announcement/AS increase with the "sorry we tried but this is necessary to keep the company moving forward" line from mgmt that leaves ardent believers holding the bag (maybe again) and wondering how things went south.
investing at any level, with any investment (whether time, money, or emotion) is a series of risks and rewards and there is no absolute measure for what works as personality, financial means, risk tolerance, and education/experience are different for every investor. the market is about spreading risk over a larger pool to drive results forward. we have a very efficient system for doing that and arguably the reason we industrialized faster than any other country ever. it also leaves plenty of room for scams as those that want the easy money without the hard work, sacrifice, painful lessons, and due diligence are easily suckered.
i cant tell you where TBEV falls. for me, i made some good trades as i detailed prior and made my money and playing on house money. i wont give it all back but i am willing to risk taking a look at the financial agreement and seeing what kind of integrity the mgmt has. it is MUCH easier to do that in my position since the risk capital has already been secured. judging by the trading the last week or so when i have been able to more closely monitor it (i have a full time professional career and it isnt trading/financial markets) the sentiment suggests more investors/traders are pricing in risk associated with a negative event with the financing than positive. the lack of mgmt support is not helping that.
best bet is to take these boards as a very cursory starting point for DD or potential trades and then start ones DD in earnest on their own.
"TBEV IS UNDERVALUED, A RATIONAL LOOK WHY:
Three months ago, there was no TBEV website, very few updates from management, and the big one, there was NO product.
Today, we have all of three of those things and photos of pro athletes drinking the beverage. The financing news we've received maybe is not the most ideal, but it's more positive than negative.
Three months ago, TBEV was trading around .0004-.0006. Today, we are pretty darn close to that.
Something is not right with that. Do not panic, we will head back up! "
...yikes... is this what passes as DD on fair value...? to compare relative value of an investment/security to itself at different points of, one needs to take them both to the present value and then compare and contrast intangibles. it is difficult to pin the exact share count when it was trading at $0.0004 - $0.0006 but lets say 1.5BB for sake of argument. what is it now...? how can you compare relative value of share price without knowing market cap which requires the OS?
when considering the intangibles and RISK being lower now due to having active website, endorsements, and most importantly product selling - the company is better off. however, you are completely ignoring the risk associated with the burning dilution that has occurred the last month and there simply is not good estimate on how deep that went or will continue to go. is the OS 1,9BB or is is 3.9BB? all the people following this stock very closely cant even come up with a conservative RANGE on what it could be. if they are forced into a R/s - todays price/value becomes virtually meaningless.
unfortunately, the PR and financing announcement did almost nothing to mitigate/remove the risk associated with the ongoing dilution and R/s. if anything, it increased risk since it wasnt addressed and is currently the biggest factor in both long and short term decisions affecting the stock.
in light of that - how can you say the stock is undervalued? if you compare $0.0006 to $0.0009 - the stock is up 50%. however, is the OS up 50%? 100%? 200%? that would at least give you PV to compare and then add back the intangibles.
the company has still provided nothing solid on R/s, revenue guidance, or any details on the finance arrangement. stock continues to price in that added risk as well as the apparent continued dilution from VFIN with VNDM still on the ASK at $0.001.
still very speculative at best even with sales being restarted on Amazon.
I dont have a lot to compare it to directly in that segment. It really isnt in a Vitamin Water/Gatorade class because it is more an energy/workout recovery drink as well as hydration/rehydration. As an all in one - I like it better than anything else I have tried but for me - I wish it had protein. However - that completely changes the taste profile and hydration aspect so igs tough to accomplish. I needed to dilute it at least by 30% but tastes better for me at 50. Then I lose half the benefit. There again - doesnt matter much as I will drink roughly 4 times one bottle in a workout so I would still get the full benefit of the bottles contents.
Will I reorder - probably. I still am evaluating it and sending it to a couple colleagues and friends for evaluation to see what kind of legs it has in the market. It definitely has a place in the market and I think the formula, taste (for most), and looks are appealing. I like the endorsements lined up. The share structure and past SG&A expenses give me serious pause. If the $5MM loan is clean and non convertible and will eliminate the R/s - I would become a much more aggressive investor. Right now - I only have 4-6 MM shares for the long term potential.
TBEV remains extremely speculative despite the appearance of being on the verge of breakout.
the company did nothing to clear up or even address the potential or likelihood of a R/s in the last PR. the verbiage used on the loan conditions and future production roll out was filled with vague conditional phrases none of which were resolute. those that are confident picked out the wording on the bridge loan and those negative on the lack of concrete timelines/guidance (or at least blacktopped - nothing is ever concrete).
conversions/dilution still appear to be going on today with VFIN constantly on the ASK and VNDM although they have moved up a little - is still waiting int he wings. on the positive side, most of that is being absorbed at the ASK except for a few large hits on the BID that i noticed while checking in. i am generally not able to follow closely enough. however, i would not say the float is locked up based on what i am seeing.
produce is still not available and this should be addressed with updates via SM at least every other day if not daily. takes seconds to put out a tweet. what is the specific delay? product not being scanned in? Amazon being cautious or following process due to quick sell out and not sure if it is legit demand (not a stretch for someone to use intermediaries to buy product up quickly to create the illusion of demand)? logistics? etc? they do not need to throw Amazon under the bus to provide updates.
still a big question mark on how the $5MM will be structured. with the dilution going on and the ambiguity with the PR (especially around the no CD taken in 2015), it does not instill confidence that this $5MM will be non CD or what amount of dilution it will require. while it may be fixed - will it trigger an R/s with liquidity issues? is the $450K enough to wipe out existing CD positions AND increase inventory until the LOC becomes available on the rest of the $5MM?
on the positive side - professional athletes are signed and have endorsed product. it does NOT make sense for them to be pushing this hard now when no product is available or at best - very limited. company needs to build inventory online first and then do a sustained, systematic retail market in select markets while they ramp up unless they have the numbers to support a national chain taking on the brand. the $5MM should be enough for a national launch.
the company has met most of its timelines and commitments since they revamped earlier this year. they have gotten the product approved, moved through final stages of production, got post production approval, got it on Amazon and sold out twice. some of the athletes endorsing the product are having pretty solid seasons so far and can be huge, immediate boosts if/when product becomes nationally available (company is still talking early 2016).
if the $5MM loan is favorable terms with minimum dilution and/or will NOT require or will specifically ELIMINATE the threat of a R/s - a lot of risk will leave the risk/reward scenario and investors will quickly invest, reinvest. however, with the risks above, this still remains very, very speculative due to the uncertainty with the R/s. for those contacting IR directly, ask them to address this broadly and make a definitive statement to remove uncertainty. i have had Joe contact me back quickly by phone but NOT email. that is a little concerning as email is more efficient and can be done during non business hours.
at 62MM shares traded - that is around $68K. if half of the volume the last three weeks has been CD/dilution - it should run its course shortly if volume remains (next couple of days based on notes coming due). however, the company should be more assertive and resolute about the remaining CD and how the $450K bridge loan will be immediately used and not so mushy. until they do, this will continue to be dictated by the dilution and not the potential.
as far as the product, as i posted before, it is too sweet for me but when i diluted it 50-50 with water, it was MUCH better (for me). i did not get the same effect though. i did notice less soreness/muscle fatigue the day after and second day after workouts that are rather consistent in length and intensity vs normal water/Vitamin Water Zero (which i also dilute 50-50). I have never done the Monster and Gatorade is about useless due to the sugar. it does give me a boost of energy compared to normal V water but i havent used it long enough to discount placebo. i want it to work and that alone makes a powerful stimulant as anyone that has dealt with medical trials/patients know. the mind is the most powerful stimulant.
i still have a couple million long term shares on house money and consider this a swing trade until the company removes uncertainty that is "should" be able to confidently do so at this juncture.
Company seemed pretty clear they wanted to target that $3/bottle price range for retail. Amazn is retail. Any dealer cost would be at wholesale and they would not be paying $3/bottle wholesale. To sggest that one buying by the pallet or LTL would be paying the same retail price as off Amazon is silly or purposely misleading. The company also was clear on its intention to roll out via Amazn and build brand awarenss prior to retail launch. That also makes sense. Now - whether they will be able to secure capital and enact this strategy before the CD lenders force them into a RS for liquidity reasons is a completely different argument. The stock/company still remains highly speculative due to that very real and potentially imminent issue. Any investor at this juncture has to be keenly aware of that potential and fsctor risk accordingly.
Thatsmynutttoo - I would like to discuss a couple things offline if you are interested regarding your order and retail plans and if any POS items are available for in store marketing. I am not really comfortable asking in this open forum and I am pretty sure you wouldnt be comfortable answering. You can email me and then decide how/if to answer when I reply. You can reach me for now at thesmalls on yahoo.
Thanks
thisismynuttoo - if you get a chance - post some pics of the pallet and the loading slips. i would post it on here and Twitter/FB
i ordered the product within an hour or two of it becoming available on Amazon and just received it yesterday afternoon. i have posted my actual amazon order previously (sans address) and pics of the product yesterday.
the original order had a very long delivery time frame for Amazon in general. i am not sure if that was because it was a new product or other reasons. normally an item like that would be at my place within 3-5 days with normal free shipping. 5-8 days tops ona west coast shipped item.
that joint dismissal has nothing to do with whether or not there was an out of court settlement. if there was one, both parties STILL need to resolve the suit formally. now, whether or not there was an award settlement to HJOE or both parties agreed that it did not make sense financially to continue - they still have to formally close/resolve the court case. reading that dismissal has nothing to do with any potential out of court settlement that involves money/NDAs.
with PLN changing attorneys several times, HJOE continuing to spend precious cash they couldn't afford to lose, and then the joint dismissal coming shortly after the PLN debacle with Dr. Oz (who still isnt backing down), it is reasonable to assume the potential for a favorable settlement to HJOE.
even if there was no cash settlement, HJOE still wins as it was facing a $600K suit that obviously PLN didnt have the stomach to pursue. more than likely, it will never be formally disclosed what actually happened due to the likelihood of an NDA. if PLN did settle, they certainly dont want it out in the public domain that they are a target for these types of claims.
as far as underwater shareholders, most of the traders at this point have largely left and long term investors generally remain. i also imagine a fair amount of those like myself bought heavily in the trips to provide cost bases far lower than today's price and thus are not underwater.
"I think someone from management is reading the reviews both pro and con and the ingredients can still be tweeked to everybody's pleasure I would imagine at the bottling plant..... so let's just give it some time to get everyone's reaction again AFTER they tried it a few different ways........ "
the company can not arbitrarily "tweak" the ingredients when the formula went through an FDA approval process for both pre and post run validation. further, they will require continual pre and post run evaluations 9meaning a sealed bottle sent to 3rd party for validation). they can change down the road but they will be required to reapprove formulation. flavors do not require a reapproval as long as it is just the flavor changed and not the mix of vitamins/supplemnts.
Received order today. Put a couple in the fridge and tried one after I worked out around 10:30. For me, it had a funny taste - couldnt quite put my finger on it but it was definitely too sweet for me. however, i have to dilute the Vitamin Water Zeros as i do not like sweet items. not sure about the energy kick or hydration as i was doing weights and not aerobic and it was late at night. will get an idea on the recovery side tomorrow to see how it affects soreness.
box shows an expiration date of 8/2016 and has Amazon SKU on it as well as "New Item".
trying once again to attach/embed pics. not sure in the age of copy and paste why this is such a chore here.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2015/10/5/ldfnc1444099726878.jpg
"HJOE ended up with paying their attorneys and not getting anything.
As usual it was clearly overblown by a few shareholders. "
it was equally overblown by bears that the $600K lawsuit filed by PLN would sink/crush the company and that would be it.
the company most certainly had to respond to the lawsuit and they ended up NOT paying the $600K and they validated that there were REAL and legitimate issues with PLNs handling/manufacturing of the product which the bears also dismissed as company gibberish. if there was no valid claims frmo HJOE - why would PLN agree to dismiss...?
the dismissal does not eliminate the possibility of a settlement. one could have been reached that was not disclosed due to normal NDAs and would be filed by the company if/when they resume normal filing.
my order shipped 9/28 and should be here sometime this morning per the details from UPS tracking below which matches the update from Amazon. i will take some pics and post later. i am still surprised people do not believe Amazon is shipping product/that it exists. i havent been successful at posting pics prior so if someone can send me a reply and let me know easiest way to do it - i will.
company should be putting out a statement via SM outlets and update Amazon availability. if the expectation was this past weekend - they should follow up and address accordingly. is it going to be one more day, two, week? costs nothing to blast out an update via SM and inform. the issue could definitely be with Amazon. despite their logistics - it is still a VERY large company with an absolutely insane amount of SKUs to process and turnaround.
lot of "investors" were clamoring for those $0.001 shares last week while waiting for funds to clear or for others to sell. roughly 15MM available right now with no one chomping at the bit...
order details from Amazon below:
Your Account
›
Your Orders
›
Order Details
›
Track Package
Track Package
Performance Punch, 16 Ounce (Pack of 12)
Expected by Oct 9
It’s out for delivery
Ordered Sep 17
Shipped Sep 30 Expected by Oct 9 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Get shipment updates with the free Amazon app
Send a download link to your email
Send
Prefer to get text messages instead?
Shipment details
Latest update: Today
7:40 AM
Out for delivery
Wixom, MI, US
Carrier: UPS, Tracking #: 1ZE1014V0313115303
Show more
Shipment actions
Contact seller
FROM UPS site 2 minutes ago (which matches up to AMazon tracking on last update which they pull electronically frmo UPS/shipper site)
Your parcel information
Summary: Wixom, MI, United States 05/10/2015 7:40 A.M. Out For Delivery
Details:
1 - Wixom, MI, United States 03/10/2015 2:01 A.M. Arrival Scan
2 - Maumee, OH, United States 03/10/2015 12:27 A.M. Departure Scan
3 - Maumee, OH, United States 02/10/2015 8:53 P.M. Arrival Scan
4 - Hodgkins, IN, United States 02/10/2015 4:09 P.M. Departure Scan
5 - 02/10/2015 2:37 P.M. Arrival Scan
6 - Hodgkins, IL, United States 02/10/2015 1:49 P.M. Departure Scan
7 - 02/10/2015 12:47 A.M. Arrival Scan
8 - Portland, OR, United States 29/09/2015 1:26 A.M. Departure Scan
9 - Dupont, WA, United States 28/09/2015 4:13 A.M. Origin Scan
10 - United States 28/09/2015 7:24 A.M. Order Processed: Ready for UPS
a question for the accumulating longs: why would you not aggressively be buying the $0.0011s being offered right now if you are accumulating? why wait for $0.001 and miss a quick move and just chip away at the $0.0011s on the ASK? besides ensuring you arent chasing, you also increase the value of your overall holdings. besides - what is the difference in $0.0001 if you really expect it to go to multiple pennies or over a dime...?
the posts about being upset about not getting $0.001s have to be taken with a grain of salt because long term investors would not even be concerned with the rounding error.
i have purchased shares at $0.001 today and yesterday but i still consider them swing shares at best until there is something more concrete with funding. while one can not compare the company today with that two years ago on an apples to apples basis, one also needs to appreciate history and the remaining CD which was NOT addressed in the PR. while traditional funding/capital eliminating that WILL dramatically change the entire risk/reward scenario going forward, until then, this is extremely speculative at best. so, if one is comfortable with that risk/reward, why risk losing out on increasing your % holdings significantly for $0.0001/share...?
"Well I believe the important part of marketing your product is too make sure you can sell it before you promote it! I will bet you now that AMAZON has removed the new marketing rules for TBEV, they will get the story out! Never spend money on marketing unless someone can get it immediately! Cardinal rule in marketing of your product introduction!"
this is absolutely essential! you cant hype/promote a launch and then fail to deliver. same thing applies with athletes promoting on SM/elsewhere. once throughput through Amazon is rateable and can be counted on to be consistent - the company can enact the launch blitz accordingly.
further - the throughput through Amazon adn specifically -the reorder rate - will be critical for traditional lenders/private investors to take the plunge and invest. just wiping out CDs would probably providean instant 500% return on their investment (not liquid).
the misunderstanding at Amazon may have been what got Toby's ire if he really does have private investors waiting in the wings and were put off by Amazon showing product unavailable. it is always a rather intricate dance aligning private capital in a fledgling start up when the company has virtually no leverage but the promise of success.
"Chobrown, too many here looking to get rich quickly here and expect the impossible.
This is a marathon, not a sprint.
WE will get the financing finalized and product will be nationwide in stores by Christmas.
This is a great long term investment!
One of the few really good ones in one's lifetime!"
while i generally agree with the statement when dealing with long term investments in start ups - unfortunately that does not apply. in this case - it may be a marathon and not a sprint - but you have a grizzly bear in the race and you need to be fastest than the slowest runner or else you are getting taken down. when dealing with convertible debt from toxic lenders - time is not a luxury you can afford or ignore when dealing with the long term. if they do not get it under control within weeks/the next month, they have another round of debt that will be coming due and that WILL force a R/s due to liquidity issues with current AS increase and that will wipe out a large majority of current holders as it did last time.
to ignore that possibility is being irresponsible. it is your money but to say it is a marathon and not a sprint when the dilution monster is chasing you down is not being an honest broker in the conversation. that is the main issue with the PR today and fuel for the bears. the company gave no firm timelines or guidance on when funding will be in place. just very mushy verbiage such as "they have been successfully making progress with their commitment to providing better funding opportunities" - what does that mean? that they have a follow up appt scheduled to resume discussions...? that is not exactly comforting when the company is seeing OS increase 100-200MM in a day for consecutive days and there is a real and meaningful debt limit ahead.
the long term success of the company is NOT the argument to be made. the argument is whether todays shares (share structure) will be the same/valued the same as when(if) the company does become successful. unfortunately, for me, the PR did nothing to clear that up nor to improve the risk/reward scenario for buying now instead of waiting. sideways trading suggest the market in general feels the same. i still believe the MMs will take advantage of that to create some runs. if the diluters show back up - they will need to to create volume to allow them to unload.
i should be receiving the product i ordered tomorrow. i am interested to see how it tastes and works both as an "energy" drink and as a recovery drink. i will also be passing out some bottles to colleagues and friends that train heavy to get their thoughts. that will go a long way in determining whether or not i become a long term investor or remain here for the swings.
news today was validation. validation for both the longs and shorts. if you are sold on the company - the PR validated youre reasons for being long: additional product goign to Amazon, sell out was not company's fault, launch remains successful, and long term financing that eliminates the toxic debt is on the way.
if one is short/negative - it validates that the company still has no timeline for eliminating debt and does not have the cash to do larger role out. the verbiage in the PR about financing is squishier than a campaign promise in January. there simply was no meat to it.
as i have stated prior - i have made two short term trades and then held a position waiting for the Amazon launch. this PR did nothing for me to consider this (yet) a long term hold. dilution/dumping has been continuing and no reason to expect it will slow any time soon based on the news. further, i thought it was poor form or poorly worded on McBride's part about Amazon. with all of the handlers and edits - i dont think he misspoke. i think those words were chosen carefully. HPB may be the customer but Amazon certainly doesnt "need" their business. i shed "nuisance"customers all the time if the time/aggravation of dealing with them is an opportunity cost of gaining better business. the company needs Amazon a lot morethan the other way around right now.
it could have been worded in the following manner that got the point across without throwing Amazon under the bus: "while there were some issues on both sides in the understanding and process of the merchant agreement, Amazon has worked closely with HPB and removed the obstacles going forward that will ensure inventory will remain available as demand continues to increase. We appreciate Amazon working with us as a start up with pent up demand and creating flexibility to allow us to meet that demand within their normal terms and conditions." that is a win-win for both. as written, it makes Amazon look incompetent and HPB as whiners.
"I am buying today. I could care less if it is .001 or .0009! When they roll the Punch out in retail, no one will care about the difference between the 2!" at the time of that post - there were 10.6MM shares traded at an avg of $0.0015. that is only $15.9K worth of stock. that is not exactly a ringing endorsement of buying in general. for the many posters on here that are bullish - it doesnt appear you are increasing your positions with any fortitude this morning.
if the diluters stay off the ASK today, i would expect a small run. i still dont see anything being maintained until there is something more concrete with respect to financing and eliminating the variability/unknowns in the share structure. if one is interested in going long - there is not much of a difference with respect to long term reward whether you get in at $0.0005 or $0.0015 if you think this is going to multiple pennies or beyond and want to drastically minimize your risk in doing so.
16MM buy to wipe out $0.0004s on ASK. only $6500 worth of stock but generally not the type of purchase by a short term trader in a stock that is not actively moving. too hard to dump. suggests it is more of a longer type hold.
i picked up 2MM earlier today.
may see a quick run through the $0.0005s before the eventual sell off in the $0.0006s. this would be independent of any news/announcements by the company.
amazon just updated my order (from 9/17) and it now shows as shipped. shows it left the carrier facility in portland, or at 1:32AM per tracking # provided. site still shows product is not available.
as far as cost to serve through Amazon vs HPB direct - it is all about logistics and economies of scale. there is simply no merchant anywhere that does more retail cc transactions than AMazon (at least in the US - alibaba does more WW). in terms of shipping packages - they have to be close to the top in the US as well if not the top. hard to confirm that #.
regardless - both of these statistics give them enormous leverage in costs when it comes to credit cards and shipping. the throughput alone lowers cost to serve by UPS (or any of the carriers in general). if you can keep that brown truck full/moving with Amazon orders at or just above cost - your gross margins dramatically improve with every other package/customer served. same thing as airlines. if you can cover your fixed costs (primarily fuel) with passengers - all of the airfreight and remaining passengers drive up GMs.
with credit cards it is a little different. they get little economies of scale with more transactions (as it is mostly digital with little human interaction). however, there it becomes competition. if they do NOT provide attractive merchant fees - Amazon could partner with Visa, MC, AMEX, etc and lock the others out. Costco did that successfully with AMEX for years before AMEX became arrogant and lazy and were dropped flat because they felt they couldnt be replaced. the were wrong.
when you consider the automation at Amazon, UPS/FedEx, and the credit card companies - the 70% number becomes very realistic when considering the economies of scale and purchasing power/leverage that Amazon has over a direct retailer. for a large manufacturer - every invoice/PO that is processed by a human has a cost (in my industry - that is estimated to be around $40-80 depending on customer). if you eliminate that and "contract" all of the human element to Amazon and take advantage of not only their leverage but their retail reach - it provides credence to 70%. if the actual UPS cost to ship a ground package is around $4 - they are going to be charging residential customers and small retailers probably $8. Amazon is probably paying just over $4 strictly because the volume drives down the cost to serve on every other package deliver because the trucks fixed costs are being met.
it would be tough to pin down the exact % but just from my industry - the premium to a retailer of HPB's current size i would guess the number to be pretty solid. the company should focus on marketing and production and let the logistics companies do what they do best...
strong revenues. improving gross margins. MUCH wider diversity in their customer base. net income could have been higher but it appears they increased R&D expenses which is not a bad thing depending on how that money is being spent.
would like for the company to be more verbose and do at least a little cheerleading about themselves.
two individual investors that took over (basically stole?) the previous MobilePro shares need to be understood about their long term intentions. between them they own 1.5MM shares which is a large part of OS
better read/reread that last 10Q. chinese government has basically put a gag on online lottery sales while they clean it up and license/relicense the players. XCLL commented that they have suspended revenue operations in the online lottery business until this clears up. not good. between having no forseeable revenues (and they didnt ramp up in over a year with the acquisition) and the tremendous amount of convertible debt coming due end of this year and next - not looking promising. every time the ASK has been hit - large offers start appearing.
"no shit 'thesmalls'"
maybe this isnt the best medium for not so subtle sarcasm. but my inane response was a direct counter to the inane question. whining about the stock price is a useless post though most on this forum are.
CD notes continue to convert and buyers are being much more patient and taking a wait and see attitude. longer term investors have already created positions and the short term traders are very anxious with the notes being converted and the buyers being less aggressive. everyone is waiting for "the big news." in the meantime there is a stall. the expectations are that the news will be significantly better for company/stock price than worse and that is causing some traders who normally wouldnt still be in to remain holding until there is clearer direction or news is released. the result is a stalemate that will cause the stock to move generally sideways. better...?
"I got a question wtf is gonna make this stock go up because product being sold out on Amazon is not it?"
when there are considerably more shares trying to be purchased than trying to be sold - the price will go up.
"Pennies are not good long term investments mate. Trade this sucker. 5 billion shares O/S and VFIN sitting on top.. What more is there to say? Don't be a dreamer.. "
most arent - i agree. this one may or may not be. i dont know. i certainly am not a dreamer and more than understand share structure, CD, R/s, real valuations, etc. but that doesnt mean all of them are. there are plenty of legitimate companies in the OTC realm it just takes a lot of effort to find good ones that might be long term holds.
there is certainly a place for this type of drink/product in the marketplace. most sports drinks are NOT good. they either taste bad, are loaded with sugars/chemical derivatives that are counter productive, or only focus on certain elements requiring multiple drinks/supplements.
this does NOT replace water as the main source of hydration. nowhere does the company suggest that. however, anyone that has trained at a high level knows that the body needs significantly more than just water during intense sweating. that is why gatorade was originally developed and took off. the study of electrolytes and the effect of massive swings in their concentrations and the ability for the body to react/snap back. the market has become crowded and most of those product are glorified sugar water. if this can deliver on its potential/hype - than it could be a genuine longer term play. again, one still has to be extremely leery of the share structure/debt issues.
however, if initial sales/reorders are promising and the launch produces favorable results tied into athlete endorsements - legitimate capital can come in and replace the toxic debt and eliminate further dilution. can the company ramp up revenues and viable capital in time before the notes force a R/s? i dont know. it is a very speculative risk. but assuming that every company is pure trash in this realm because that is where they trade is a poor assumption.
Bearing down on 200 cases sold in less than 12 hours and there has been ZERO advertising or marketing outside of a couple player tweets and investor PRs. there has been no media launch yet. what do people expect sales to be when very few people know it is even available outside those invested and those following some of the players/endorsers?
i dont know if the product works or tastes like goat piss but for $35 - i am going to try it and see if this short term investment should turn into a long term one. i am an athlete. no longer ultra competitive but still above the weekend warrior. i train hard and have used various products over the years when i trained heavy and hard (consuming 6-8K cal/day). everyone's biochemistry is different and not all shakes, powders, supplements, etc will work the same or for all. but if i notice a difference and there is none of the crap in it - i will use it (post workouts, after long mountain biking runs, when doing extensive yard work/splitting wood, etc).
history is certainly a guide and one to be very mindful of when concerning the past attempts and R/s. but it does not predict the future. any stock in this realm should be considered extremely speculative with only high risk capital employed. but - if you are thinking seriously about investing or have a long term position - it certainly behooves you to buy a case and promote the product. it does exist. it is selling. to suggest otherwise is simply silly at this point. that doesnt mean the stock is going to $0.005,$0.01, or a dollar or that they will ever turn a profit. what it does suggest is that the risk/reward scenario continues to improve with the chances of success being higher than they were a month or two ago when the SP was in trips. the price is reflective of that improved risk.
most of the posts on here are white noise to boost read through/exposure in the trading realm. most OTC stocks are shells or pipedreams. however, few present opportunities where one can actually touch the product or try it and then make an honest evaluation about its market potential and then apply that potential to the share structure, mgmt acumen/integrity, etc and invest accordingly.
Amazon order placed last night:
Order placed
September 17, 2015
Total
$35.99
Ship to
Order # 107-1172768-1840256
Order Details Invoice
Preparing for Shipment
Shipping estimate: Monday, September 28, 2015 - Friday, October 2, 2015
Track package
Performance Punch, 16 Ounce (Pack of 12)
Sold by: High Performance Beverage
$35.99
currently 362 show available.
http://www.amazon.com/Performance-Punch-16-Ounce-Pack/dp/B014Q64HEI/ref=aag_m_pw_dp?ie=UTF8&m=A1026ID36U3QVS
Product Description
High Performance Sports DrinkTM was carefully formulated to hydrate, support mental focus, increase blood flow and muscle recovery, thereby, giving the body the proper fuel necessary to power through a sporting event and throughout the day. Whether an athlete is looking to achieve optimal performance in the ring, on the field, or in the workplace, our High Performance Sports DrinkTM will help give that "competitive edge" that all athlete's are looking for!
Product Details
Shipping Information: View shipping rates and policies
ASIN: B014Q64HEI
UPC: 854824004023
Average Customer Review: 4.9 out of 5 stars See all reviews (22 customer reviews)
Product Warranty: For warranty information about this product, please click here
Would you like to give feedback on images or tell us about a lower price?
Important Information
Legal Disclaimer
Actual product packaging and materials may contain more and different information than what is shown on our website. We recommend that you do not rely solely on the information presented and that you always read labels, warnings, and directions before using or consuming a product. Please see our full disclaimer below.
Customer Questions & Answers
"cousin says people in bottle plant now buying they no when new batches r being discussed"
sutter - what is the size of the second production run? same, larger, smaller? same flavor?
"I already pre-ordered five cases and I am going to put them in a busy convenient store in southern Oklahoma to see how they move will also price to break even on my cost "
i would be very interested in reading how the bottles sold, what types of questions consumers had about the drink, who responded to them (you or a clerk that you prepped with some basic info), and what they were planning on buying (if you/clerk asked them what they normally would have purchased).
i am still trying to wrap my brain around how this will be positioned retail. it really isnt a direct comparison to Gatorade even though that is who they are going after. it will be at least double the price of that or a Vitamin Water in normal c-store formats. as a recovery drink for athletes - do they normally purchase their products in a c-store? when i trained heavy, i bought powders and mixed them and when traveling for work - got the Muscle Milk or other types of shakes. they tasted like chalk but they had what i needed (and a lot of stuff i didnt).
i did similar things with HJOE with the recovery and energy shots. i dont own/operate c-stores but i have a lot of customers that do. got some interesting and pretty telling feedback that was comparable to what the company reported.
wow - and i thought the HJOE board was insane during the dilution phase.
i spoke with Joe Vazquez earlier this morning after we traded messages this weekend. i asked him if the delay was something that could affect the current product that was bottled and ready to ship. there is pre and post testing done. FDA rules have changed the validation/certification process for the post testing. samples have to be sent of sealed, finished production product for 3rd party validation (which is after the original batch is certified/validated prior to bottling). this prevents a company from doing a bait and switch prior to having blend certified 9a company could have the batch certified and then dilute it with water by 30% and then package it under old guidelines).
the issue was in one of three tests completed by an outside lab and they were hoping to have results today so they could specifically state when the existing production run could be cleared and shipped. he told me that either way - they would put out a PR stating the new date or when they expected to get the results back and then ship. but either way - they would put out a PR. he also said that was the primary intent of the PR so i am not expecting anything earth shattering.
he did acknowledge the notes that were converted last week were being sold en masse yesterday. that was somewhat obvious as was stated on here. the usual MMs were dumping and we saw more of it today when VFIN entered into the mix later on this afternoon. now one can argue whether the timing was suspect and the company deliberately planned a launch date around the conversions. however, as could be ascertained by the previous PRs pushing back the launch date (after FDA approval) and then the follow up stating "on or around the 5th" - it seems the company was trying to get the product to market as fast as possible and it was an unfortunate coincidence it coincided with the notes maturing.
it is always a gamble with these companies when toxic debt is around. much like HJOE. the company needs to execute, build cash flow, and retire debt through cash flow and/or traditional financing before the dilution monster hits. there looks to be anywhere from 300-600MM shares that were diluted over the last two days. not the end of the world if this round is mostly through and they are able to restructure debt with more traditional financing that is not toxic. this can happen with initial production run being well received and a second one following up quickly. depending on how the news is received and when the launch date ends up being - we may continue to see dilution that outpaces demand.
i have followed this stock for several months and took a trading position with @4MM shares at $0.0007 and closed it at $0.0019. i then bought back at $0.0012 and closed it at $0.002. i then bought in again at $0.0013 and made several purchases with a basis of $0.0015 and did not sell when it went to $0.0029. at that point, i wanted to see the actual launch go through last weekend. i left the position open through yesterday and today and bought again at the EOD with another couple MM at $0.0009.
i expect it to remain volatile. however, if the launch is only delayed several days to a week and the market/investor base is shown it was a routine delay that neither TBEV nor SBC could foresee - my guess is the demand will once again pick up as the product gets to the market.
Joe could not comment on pre-order sales/numbers nor could he address any financing.
FKWL should be reporting their best year in upcoming 10K since the short lived Sprint year when they launched their USB modems. have a much more diversified product base and doing hardware and software for end to end solutions. Africa results should continue to be strong. Verizon in the US continues to provide scale and appears better margins than what they had with Sprint.
very little stock for sales and a couple of groups continue o increases their positions per the SG13s. very small float doesnt do it any favors but if/when it does become in favor - should be an interesting ride.
as of a couple months ago - the distillery was still running per a colleague of mine who went by. i asked him to stop by and make a call on them and see what was going on. he didnt get very far but at least confirmed they were open.
i am in the ohio, indiana, michigan areas. i only saw it in a select few stores as it was never a target area for them starting out. the store in Michigan i had found it in still had it as of two weeks ago but i didnt ask the owner how well it had been selling.
they are still doing events as of last week end where they tweeted about one in NYC (i think - might have been Miami).
does anyone know the distributors that carried the product for the stores in FL? ask any of the stores why they no longer carried it?
i thought Romer was turning it around. thought we would see an update to shareholders by now with an update on the two primary brands, the distillery operations, and where the company is at with Consilium. the longer it is dark the worse it gets for the outside shareholders as uncertainty mounts.
website is still active and while their SM is more intermittent - they are still doing events and tweeting.
hopefully they were able to keep Consilium in the game and/or find alternative financing as a bridge.
this may or may not be a big seller/very profitable but comparing it to HJOE with the below statement is not accurate. HJOE has two products - an energy shot ala 5Hr and the recovery shot which you are referencing below. the energy shot is specifically and enthusiastically endorsed by Larry The Cable Guy which is currently one of the highest grossing entertainers and most recognizable personalities in the business (entertainment). further, the energy shot business (90%+ through 5Hr) is currently $1.5-2BB in revenues/year and growing. THAT market/product is truly an everyday product for everyday people where this drink is geared more to those with high intensity training. certainly many average Joes will drink it thinking the mere act will make them a better athlete but it does not have the everyday reach of a 5Hr energy shot which is HJOEs target market with theirs.
i am a large investor in HJOE and very minor one in TBEV. i have over 80% of my shares in HJOE at $0.0002-0.0003 and all of my shares (just under 5MM) of TBEV at $0.0007. i just started following/doing DD on TBEV a couple of weeks ago so i am new. however, just wanted to point out the off base comparisons.
"'-DRNK, THCZ and HJOE are very niche audiences and not mainstream. ie: People who get hammered and smoke pot. They never had celebrity endorsements of this caliber, like $$$TBEV has. A few of these guys are household names.
Let's see $1.00 by the end of the year. Very optimistic. ":
that isnt me selling. i have sold 15-20K in the mid thirties but the rest of it is not me.
They have to get current to execute their monster R/s. The convertible debt seems to be getting much hwrder for them to come by now. Have to get the R/s instituted so there is liquidity. I inagine the BS PRs will be timed accordingly and more newbies will be sucked in and help carry the bags for the long termers.
thought the sellers were gone. keep waiting to see if they push it back below $0.03 or if they keep it at the $0.039/$0.04
with 2Q ending today - it is time for an update from the company on how the first half of the year has gone.
they have resumed tweeting and are sponsoring events. distillery is up and running. new web site promoting both and specific attention on the production side.
time to update shareholders.
And what is the penalty for that breach?
What are the damages from said breach?
Was the breach deliberate or out of their hands (force majeure)?
If they are sued on the breach - these will be material questions a judge/jury will consider ehen awarding damages if they exist.
There is considerable shorting when there is a known supply of stock to cover the short position. That is the way it works. Paid on both ends. They drve the price down with shorting and then cover the shorts with the issued shares. They ensure payback/ROI while minimizing risk. If they are prevented from converting and have open short positions when the tide turns - oops.
I would rather tske my chances in court on the breach then have them diluting the hell out of the stock.