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Reposting the analysis below because it's worth noting that dilution can only be partially blamed for price performance since June 30
If we had kept our market cap at $11.5M since June 30 (and really should have gone up)...we would be 3X+ the pps where we are today with 1/3 more shares outstanding.
Market Cap
30-Jun $11,446,668
30-Nov $3,488,371 -70%
PPS
30-Jun $0.0044
30-Nov $0.0010 -77%
O/S
30-Jun 2,601,515,456
30-Nov 3,488,371,109 34%
PPS at June 30 Mkt Cap and Nov 30 O/S $0.0033
Less than 400K per year or about 10% of the revenue now.
I still think they are better off selling this...it's not a major revenue producer anymore now that ARIA is operational, does not seem to be included in any future expansion plans, and they need to reduce debt even a couple of million in incoming cash would help.
Also, we know from the current lease terms that the tenant has the option to purchase for $10M when it expires early next year...so $10M is probably a good estimate given inflation and property values skyrocketing the way they have
They would report a gain after the sale...and cashflow would be positive after settlement of debt...unless you think that propoerty is much less than $10M market value
Same experience on my side...I sold early by a few months on a similar situation....to find out later than the pps had run well past my WA. And that stock was truly a P&D (no material revenues) and not a growing business with debt issues
This same statement is a staple of every OTC..with the exception that most don't even have a real business associated with them. Many have worst share structures than this one and dilute just as much if not more..yet they aren't in trips or near there. Difference is the CEO in all those cases and how he/she communicates future plans/expansions, etc. You can call it pumping, but that's the lifeblood of the OTC
Mortgages nowhere near market value at this point.
They have a $2M+ book value on it if Im not mistaken which couldn't be greater than the mortgage. ...so they have an $8M unrecognized asset on their books.
Just waiting for this shtt to get to whatever the MMs are wanting it to go...to load up for hopefully the last time here.
CEO could right this ship literally overnight by announcing the Canada property on the market for $10M and taking offers. The cash could be used to pay down debt and reduce/eliminate future dilutions and pay for expansions in the Fla site.
The fact that he won't sell that property and has no plans to anyone's knowledge of developing a business there (it's already occupied by another HC provider) just tells me he cares little about share price even if it's hurting his own family..which is downright diabolical if you ask me
No rational explanation for a company that has a operting business spinning off $4M per year in revenue and $10M dollar property in Canada to have a market cap of $3M. Dilutions don't get us there...this goes way beyond that. We should be 3X the market cap we are today even with dilutions
Looking to buy enough shares on the next purchase to bring my WA down by 50% or more..be prepared when this finally reverses which it should despite this CEO
I'd have to agree this is the most undervalued stock I've ever been a part of in the OTC..I've bought and sold P&Ds...this one has a real business behind it but somehow has little interest to investors
I think I have undervalued the need for a pumping CEO in these stocks even if they have good technicals like this one...not enough to deliver fianncial results in stocks like these. A stock without a driving CEO that can effectively "recruit" investors goes nowhere no matter the financials
Waiting to see how far down this goes before averaging down again.
Toxic debt/conversions/dilutions is a factor but can't be used to explain away the drop in PPS from June 30 to where we are today (my earlier post proves that)
Can't imagine there would be a law against anyone posting on a public board like this one.
Quick calculations that show that more than dilutions are driving us to this level of PPS
Since June 30 (pre-ARIA Close announcement) we have dropped 63% in market cap and 73% in PPS while increasing about 1/3 more in shares
If our market cap had held at around 11.5M (you would expect it should have gone up after ARIA)..we would be at $.0033 today allowing for the extra shares.
Instead we are sitting at .0012 and near trips at times.
So, dilution is not the only factor here as some on this board are constantly harping on. The difference from .0033-.0012 in driven by the inaction/inability of the CEO to communicate the value of this company to investors. You can call it pumping if you want..really don't care at this point..but this guy needs to get with it and soon; he's costing us share holders quite a bit by the way he's handling his investor relations area
Market Cap
30-Jun $11,446,668
30-Nov $4,186,045 -63%
PPS
30-Jun $0.0044
30-Nov $0.0012 -73%
O/S
30-Jun 2,601,515,456
30-Nov 3,488,371,109 34%
PPS at June 30 Mkt Cap and Nov 30 O/S $0.0033
CEO is the worst communicator I've ever seen in the OTC
He stepped all over Q3 good results (10X revenue growth and 14% operating margin) by talking about buying real estate through some obscure consortium that won't bring one more patient through the door.
Like I said, I hope the creditors are lighting his arse right now for this ultra low and ridiculous PPS ($4M Mkt cap for a $4M annualized revenue company)..even if they can covert at advantaged pricing, there comes a point of diminishing returns especially if we get into trips..they will have less and less room to make profit per share, so they will need to covert more and less chance to dump the larger quantities required to get their money back
That's the most important factor in the decline here. Lack of frequent updates means going months between financials where the manipulators can have a field day here
Broken clock is right at least twice a day
Yes..I sure creditors will be delighted if the stock goes to $.0001 and they get worthless shares for their investment.
We need 200-500M daily volume here to get out of this mess
The CEO better get with it and start communicating (pumping) the results we see in the #s and any expansion plans to grow the revenue base here. Also, there's alot of opportunity here to restructure debt now that there is operating revenue/profit...he could announce some plans around this area, could also help. How about a nice PR around applying for government funding under the trillion dollar Biden Boondogle...I'm sure there is money in that bill somewhere for drug addicition treatment.
I think if share price were a worry for him, he would have already done something to prevent us from getting this far down.
I hope it's worry for the creditors thinking they are gonna cash in on covertibles..can't do that and expect to get any return if the stock is near trips. Let's hope those creditors care enough to push this guy to pump this shtt some and get the price up.
I've never seen a stock so underperform it's own financials like this one. I mean $4M annualized revenue company@14% operating margin in Q3... selling for $3.5M?? Just doesn't make any sense.
Good business model (reported $866 Qtr Revenues @14% operating margin) underperforming horribly on share price.
Why?
My take IMO
1) CEO seems to care little about share price or communicating (pumping)
This is my #1 reason for such a dismal pps for what appears to be a good operating model. This leads to low trading volumes and lack of investor interest. If we have a healthy volume here say 200-500M shares traded daily..other problems would be much easier to handle
2) MMs Manipulation - facilitated by factor #1 above and low volume. They have been relentless here in helping keep this pps from running at times. Just hoping that they have had enough shares accumulated now that they will want to make a return on their investment at some point.
2) Debt and Dilution - the subject of constant bashing on this board by those that will remain nameless here. They are right..this can't help..BUT IT's NOT THE MAIN REASON. Dilution occurs in the OTC as often as the second hand on my watch moves. You see stocks with NO ACTUAL BUSINESS OR REVENUES (many OTCs BTW don't), doing much better than this one and some with much worse share structures. What's the difference you say? ..See factor #1 above.
All that being said, I'm still holding on this one because I believe this is a 1/2Cent-One Cent company that at some point will reverse...and I don't believe that Leon will fold house and leave ..and I don't believe that having a price this low will sit well with note holders for very long that want their money and not 10cents on the dollar by trading in trips. Whether he likes it or not, Leon will need to pump here soon.
Thanks for posting. ARia is the only reason I remain hopeful here..and willing to wait for the market to catch up
For that very reason if nothing more leon has to figure out how to get volume up or further dilutions at some point are worthless to note holders. I hope he's getting heat from them on this pps
Yes thats hurting us if you couple it with the low volumes. However let's just take 4bn o/s (looking ahead) x .001 still 1x annual revenues for mkt cap...still ridiculous
He stepped all over the financials of 10x revenue growth and operating profit of
14 % by talking about buying real estate.
Hoping the mms what to let this run at some point and will shutoff their share spikett.
There is manipulation no doubt. But that is only possible because the investor interest is low (volume). Ceo needs a better communication approach to change that. Last earnings pr was uninspiring at best and too much focus on r/e transactions that don't drive revenues.
Mkt cap = 1x annual revenue.
Incredible.
Ceo said they had sometimes insufficient capacity to fill demand. Doesn't sound like they have any trouble helping clients if that's the case
Just means I may need to shop early for Christmas here
I still think it's a bot that mm's have released on us ..sort-of like the ccp with covid
Waiting to buy 20 million in trips..hope I never have to
I'd say more like a duck that can't quack very well
Too much for me invested in this "marriage" to walk away right now.
Don't forget this stock was at .015 earlier this year and had a run into the 3s just recently over a short period of time.
I've been in worse before and bought my way down to a lower WA and eventually made money. This is one of the worst undervalues I've ever seen in the OTC. Time will tell if the market corrects or not.
One of the few with a real business in a needed service.
Really boggles the mind we have gotten to this point where a $4M annual revenue company is selling for approx 1X revenue.
IMO...It's the confabulation of several (devil's brew) factors over time
1) Silent for the most part CEO - very ineffective communicating at best when he does. Last earnings PR almost spent more time talking about buying real estate through some consortium than talking about growing the business
2) MM's actively manipulating this (CDEL, NITE, PAUL, etc). Constant bane here that will not go away
3) Dilutions - we just don't have the interest here /volumes here to really overcome this constant drip, drip.
4) CEO refuses to sell the Canada property which would help wipe out more debt and/or provide growth capital for West Palm Beach. The tenant has right of first refusal on any third party sale (I believe)...but that shouldn't stop him from trying to sell it. Badly needed.
All that being said, this just makes the longs timeframe for a return here longer than most of us would want. Also, I think we are all ready to buy in buckets if this gets to trips because this CEO and his family have too much invested here to ever let this go under. So patience is the key here more than ever now
Newest O/S and Dilution Trend Month over Month
Looks like in November we are slightly below the last 5 month avg per day dilution (average 5.2M vs 5.7M per day); however, the last 75M dump showed up as of 11/23 in the O/S didn't help the previously much lower avg per day in November up until then.
Date Shares O/S Change in O/S Change O/S/Day AVG
Dilution/Day/Mo
30-Jun 2,601,515,456
12-Jul 2,813,515,456 212,000,000 17,666,667
24-Aug 2,899,848,789 86,333,333 2,007,752
24-Sep 2,959,108,419 59,259,630 1,911,601
5,866,640 SEPTEMBER
27-Sep 3,051,047,811 91,939,392 30,646,464
29-Sep 3,111,047,811 60,000,000 30,000,000
13-Oct 3,173,047,811 62,000,000 4,428,571
3,894,160 OCTOBER
18-Oct 3,181,270,033 8,222,222 1,644,444
26-Oct 3,231,766,761 50,496,728 6,312,091
1-Nov 3,315,538,708 83,771,947 13,961,991
15-Nov 3,315,538,708 0 0
16-Nov 3,354,944,018 39,405,310 39,405,310
5,200,241 NOVEMBER
23-Nov 3,429,944,018 75,000,000 10,714,286
5,674,168 JULY-NOV
If you were an mm, could you resist this ticker?? I mean where do you find such a cheap and undervalued stock tha they can manipulate and accumulate to eventually make a killing. Patience and buying more if you can at these levels is the right strategy
Let's hope that the short timers and day trader crowd exited yesterday when they saw this didn't gap up
Real company , real operations, real profits from operations..and REALLY REALLY undervalued now. Bottom line. Can hold as long as it remains undervalued.