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Old largest holder sold 100% of their 24m shares right before R-IT results. I could easily see the BB sell 7m shares the day we got FDAapproval, would make a lot of sense.
In fact, selling 7m shares for $24 or $25 pays for their entire investment lol. I actually was short some 23 and 24 calls that I got called away on up there (25% of my position) so I had a similar selling situation, fortunately given current spot price.
If they dropped under 10m shares I would worry
Sorry are you buying or selling that level?
I believe they have rights to another 15m shares or so as well....they probably bought some puts or sold calls and had them called away. They still have a huge interest, not a super bearish sign imo and this reduction happened 2-3 months ago
Where do you see this?
That’s been the reason for this downtick... not super concerning tbh
Hm it did go through, more curious about the science/drugs.
The Dutch auction was fine at $30 a share...more asking about technicals
OT- anyone knowledgeable about XBIT? If so, bring discussion to that board please, another BB holding I’ve liked for a while
Very respected fund. Extremely bullish, to me there will be the #2 baker bros in terms of strength and conviction.
They aren’t biotech specialists, per se, but outside of bios hold a ton of weight. Much better holistically than BB
Kiwi,
Surprised amarin hasnt gone back and locked up basf to be honest. They seem like the most capable/largest supplier
Last 2 reports he put out the stock tanked. This is a good sign NO ONE is taking him seriously anymore. Future is getting brighter.
I don’t know who would be selling here tbh. I’ve accumulated/own so many shares, and right now is the least I’ve wanted to sell them to be honest. Pretrial when we were trading $24 I was concerned generics would pull a rabbit out of their hats, but it didn’t happen. As far as I’m concerned, this/last week is the most underpriced the stock has ever been
Your link is dated 2/3/2020
JL-
Curious about why sell now and not when the stock was 20+ or even 24+? This trial has always been an overhang and a big asymmetric bet (while the odds favor amarin as does the price, I understand the urge not to sell lottery tickets to the market as you are comfortable financially).
Why sell @18 when we’re at 3 month lows? Anything particular about the trial scare you or just a realization you don’t need as much upside on amarin as you have if all goes well?
Hahaha omg too good. Very nice comparison.
Only 20% of my position is covered so I’ll be happy to burst through the $25 line for good!
Yes, my point was were relatively closer to our real value now than we were pre reduce it, and all we can do is bridge the gap. We’re not going to $50 overnight, but multiple little things from here can gain us momentum. I don’t think we’re in a bad spot at all, some people seem to think we’re back at $3 every time we dip below $20. I’ve been selling covered calls weekly on some of my position and that takes away a lot of the stress for me haha since I know it will go up in the long run
I think 2018 low was 2.38. And 2018 high during market hours was like 23.5.
How are we not above there? Maybe my math is funny. Are we a stronger company since then with a more coherent and furthered plan? Yes. We have made tremendous strides since 2018 and I would say so far each instance has been best case scenario.
Imo we’re less undervalued now than we were in 2018. When the shares went 4x in one day I was looking to buy rather than sell. Right now if the shares went 4x, I think I would take some off the table. If you’re unhappy with share price sell, I’ve said that all along. Especially if we GIA, this won’t be a get rich quick stock. This is a value play now
Last 18 months amarins high to low is over 10x. These things take time. We’re sitting 6x from when the trials were successful. We’re fine, just need to wait a bit to see 30s/40s. Doesn’t happen over night and need to get more buy ins.
This board acts like this stock has never been under $20 before. Long term amarin just gets more and more bullish
Or 20s? Or 30s? Lol this is randomly bearish
My opinion is so many people beg their docs for Xanax, Vicodin, and all these other drugs that they “need,” while vascepa is a huge no brained. Blows my mind how easy it is for anyone to get a script for the hardcore drugs but you have to show your doctor AHA and NEJM data to get something with no sides
The doctor is making your dad 25% more likely to have a stroke or heart attack.
That would make me pretty upset. I got my dad to push his primary to prescribe since he was unwilling to leave. He simply asked him “if I have a heart attack, please remember you did not prescribe me vascepa because you ‘disagreed’ with the data, FDA, and thousands of cardios who already prescribe.” He got his script that day, and apparently the doctor has really changed his tune.
I think at this point in time, pharmacists are more on board, while doctors are more stuck in their ways/do less reading on new stuff (at least from who I spoke with). As insurers come around, I’m sure doctors will.
No, but I assume if we can grow at this rate for 2-3 years that would be peak BO range....and that’s why I assume we’ll get bought this year haha
Yeah I think you answered your own question?
To find annualized return just take the % per week, add 1 to it (so 3% per week would be 1.03), and take it to the 52nd power.
So 1.025^52 is 3.6 (representing 360%) and 1.03^52 is 4.6 (representing 460%). This produces exact annual returns
2.5% weekly growth is 360% per year and 3% is 460% per year. I’ll take those numbers for the next 2 years please lol
They didn’t want to share names. But it was 20 minutes after the report came out, and the advisor advised a sell while sending the acst bull article
No that would be interesting though
Easiest way to really get sell pressure is to hit a stock with sells on a day the market is weak. S&P down 1.5% pre-open so makes sense they’d try to pound amarin in the AM. Like you said, not enough volume to be real news, seems like 1 guy sold most
They most likely sold their shares...I think the opp report came out after 9/30.
Invesco has a few ETFs, that may be the reason they own shares, but also could be an investment, I don’t know.
Long term not worried about those fools
And they would have to sell in the next year...I don’t think they’ll get anywhere near 10-20b for Europe buyout in the next year, and they cannot do it themselves
Yeah they do. To be a financial advisor you need to pass tests and are held to certain responsibilities.
Complaints have been filed
Haha but he raised his price target almost 100%!
Amarins latest press release addressed this. Insurers are catching on and happy with new indication and dat, just takes time. I assume Jan 2021 we’ll see a huge uptick in coverage
I have friends who I advised to buy amarin sub $3, and they use Oppenheimer advisors. The day he put out his “research,” their advisor called them and told them to look at this report, may be a good time to “take profits.”
I strongly encouraged them to leave the advisors and file a complaint to the sec, which they both did.
Moreover, at the same time, the “advisor” pushed two stocks on them, one of them acst, the other was a small tech stock down 50% since. The small shops often get away with even crazier stuff than the big banks because they sell “we’re family and friends” vibe so well.
Because his position is to short, so the downside would be if amarin did well. He’s clear he likes selling amarin to buy acst. His first report he set amarin and acst both to $7 targets. Amarin is unchanged and acst is down 70% since then...uh oh
I’m saying if results/outcome was obvious why would BP not have been doing this a long time ago (this being pure epa scripts)
I think the point is they will make something that is mostly EPA and earn the generic vascepa tag, regardless if it’s as good or not effective at all!
I think the fact not one BP produces pure EPA is a clear enough statement that they didn’t see the benefits vs the current market combo. But doctors and patients, for the large part, will do a generic version if possible. That’s why lovaza is still being prescribed at all. Remember, V is already ahead of lovaza in many insurance covers.
These were most likely rolling long Jan calls. Don’t think these were real opening positions. The April 30 calls were probably openers though
Hence 7-8
Amarin right now does not have infrastructure set up to be successful and maximize Europe. JT has said so. All countries have different systems and sales forces, not feasible for a one drug company.
Correct me if anyone has ever done this in just Europe to scale
I think the biggest amarin bulls would project lower if amarin loses the patent case. Not sure the stock could really trade above 7-8...as they won’t be able to ramp up sales enough to drive off competition.
The key is if they have 9 years, it will be hard for generics to enter at that time. If they have 2-3 years, they will probably not succeed in making billions a year. I think they will win this trial, but a loss would not be trivial
You think 1000-2000 trigs would represent a patient who should not be on vascepa for more than 12 weeks simply because it stabilized the trigs a bit and one episode of acute pancreatitis lapsed?
No one with cardiac/health problems serious enough to see a doctor every 12 weeks would need vascepa for only 12 weeks haha. Who goes to a cardio 4 times a year but doesn’t have chronic CVD or symptoms??