Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Silver and Sabre, are you the same person?
wlbne: 2121
Penny Stock Contest
wlbne: AMEP,IVGR,MKGP
Today, Sat, Apr 21, 2007
• INVICTA GROUP INC Financials
EDGAR Online Financials (Sat 9:04am)
simplegreen, your TRIX 7,4 is pretty darn interesting. I have been looking at several of my favorite stocks, eg. CALVF and IVAN; it really works nice! Thanks much.
Simplegreen posted a chart on the Technical Analysts Ihub site:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18954528
Thanks a lot, SimpleGreen. Your chart set up provides a comprehesive picture.
Any thoughts on IVGR? TIA.
Exxon is unlikely to obtain a company in the Barnett Shale
April 12th, 2007 at 10:30am Under Barnett Shale
Exxon Mobil bid for Devon Energy unlikely.
Exxon Mobil, the US oil major, is not likely to get hold of Devon Energy, despite industry hearsay to the different, sources said. An industry source said he heard from a floor trader that there was market thought that Exxon was looking at Devon. In Print reports also cited the rumors. But according to a person with some fluency of Exxon’s stratagem, Exxon does not characteristically buy companies, and would not pay what would likely be a steep price for Devon. Devon, a principal producer in the Barnett Shale has a current market capitalization of USD 32.65bn. Secondly, even a large independent producer like Devon wouldn’t move the needle for Exxon, he said.
Three bankers and two industry executives also said Exxon is unlikely to obtain a company in the Barnett Shale, and is more to be expected to pursue organic growth. A more likely set-up, according to the first executive, who is also household with Exxon, is to grow organically in the suburbs of the Barnett Shale. Exxon, with USD 28.24bn in cash, proclaimed in January it would extend eight counties in the Barnett Shale, through a joint venture partnership with privately held Harding Company.
The first executive said Exxon signed the JV with Harding to get its feet wet in the Barnett, and to partner with a company with many years experience in the play. Harding is helping to obtain the permits and to do most of the grunt work, the executive said. While Exxon could make acquisitions down the line, and Devon, EOG and even EnCana could all be possible targets, it seems Exxon is looking to grow organically, the executive said. The JV with Harding will develop natural gas in the Barnett Shale, in the eight-county area of Tarrant, Johnson, Ellis, Dallas, Denton, Collin, Navarro and Hill. The formation of the Barnett Shale reaches those counties, the executive said, but it is not as good as the core of the formation. He explained that in the core of the Barnett in Denton, the formation is from 800ft to 1000ft thick, but in Erath, it is 80 ft thick, and even thinner further out. Exxon will probably avoid the hot counties, and will instead go to the outskirts and use its technology to prove up the outside play. Exxon would be the first to move to that region, and could accumulate some decent acreage, the executive said. A company cannot aggregate significant acreage
Expert: Bob Von Rhee
Date: 3/20/2007
Subject: Lease My Mineral Rights
Question
So I live in Forest Hill, TX and this last week we had tons of companies asking us to lease them our mineral rights since they are very interested in having a well 2 miles way from our properties, we had meeting in city hall and all that but they don't give you more information than you would find in the Internet. I own .5 an acre so I know I'm not getting a big bonus at first round $1500 and then 25% royalties from this company. I know I have to get a surface use waiver so they don't put a rig in my land, but this is the question no ones seems to answer, is there any damage to my land and property? Is it worth it to go over the trouble of researching other companies and their going rate? Anything bad I should know? I know big companies have been relocating to Fort Worth since it seems the barnett shale it's pretty big and lucrative, are we the property owners getting screwed over? Being underpaid for the good and being left over with the bad like water pollution?
Answer
Pamela. It's unfortunate that the oil industry has been and probably always will be poorly characterized in the media. It's a very foreign industry to most folks and for many, the only idea is what they see in movies or on TV shows. I can tell you - - they never get it right or even close to right. It's true that the early explorers for oil and gas of 80 years ago did not care for the environment and took little steps, if any, to protect it. But then no industry did back then. But many people still think that this characterizes today's industry. Most oil companies today are highly professional and highly regulated by the states they operate in. The Railroad Commission of Texas at www.rrc.state.tx.us is the regulatory agency for the production of oil and gas in Texas. Visit the website and you will get an idea of this. They stipulate how close wells may be drilled, who can become an operator in the state, how deep must surface casing be set to protect fresh water aquifers and a host of other things. I don't mean to rant, but I wish to reassure you that you are very likely dealing with a reputable firm. Also, with competition so keen in the Barnett Shale play and with the operations in and around the urban Fort Worth area, you can bet that your offer is a good one, and that the oil companies cannot afford to mess up and operate outside of the state regulations.
As I said, since competition for leases in the play is so hot right now, it's probable that you have been offered competitive terms. In fact, a conventional lease in the MidContinent might normally go for a bonus of $100 to $300 and a 3/16ths royalty. You say you're not getting a big bonus "at first round $1500" for your half acre? This would equate to a $3000 per net mineral acre lease bonus. By nearly any industry onshore leasing standard this is a heck of a high bonus.
I don't know for sure, but it's likely that a company will need about 2 to 5 acres for drilling and completing a Barnett Shale well. Once the well's been drilled much of that land is restored. The long term footprint for a gas well will be much smaller.
I'm not a Barnett shale player and am not up on the going lease terms, but I'd say you are looking at a respectable offer. Keep in mind that your royalty will be proportionately reduced according to the amount your net mineral acres contribute to the total spacing unit acres. So although your lease says you will be entitled to 25% of the revenue stream, it will be proportionately reduced. For the sake of an example, lets say that the regulatory unit needed for a Barnet Shale well is 640 acres (a square mile). First of all, this means that if the operator leased everyone in the unit at a $3000/acre bonus they will have paid out 1.92 million bucks just to be able to drill a well! Anyway, back to my example. If the spacing unit is 640 acres then your 25% royalty will ultimately be 0.5 acres/640 acres X 25% OR (0.5/640)X.25 = 0.0001953 or 0.01953%. Put another way it means that you will get $0.01953 for every 100 dollars of revnue. I'll put this in some possible real terms. If a well is drilled and it's capable of producing 1 million cubic feet of natural gas per day - which is not impossible for a Barnett Shale well, then your potential revenue could be as follows. Gas is marketed in 1000 cubic foot increments, or "mcf" pronounced "em-see-eff". So if a well makes 1,000mcf gas per day, and sells it for $5.00 per mcf, it will generate $150,000.00 per 30-day month. Your share of this would be $150,000.00 X 0.0001953 = $29.30 less a deduction for the Texas Severance tax that every owner must pay. So I wouldn't quit your day job!
I suppose you can research this more and try to get a higher price, but quite frankly your 25% royalty positions you to share in the success of any well or wells drilled better than the up front bonus money. Texas has a strong regulatory organization that will ensure the wells are drilled properly, safely and with adequate regard to the environment. I obviously cannot guarantee that an uscrupulus company will appear in the process, but most of these type of players cannot stay in business very long these days anymore.
I hope this gives you something to think about, and perhaps allays your fears a little.
Regards.
Bob VR
Geologic framework of the Mississippian Barnett Shale, Barnett ... events along the Ouachita thrust front and Mineral Wells–Newark East fault system. ...
aapgbull.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/91/4/405
redneckwoman, the post LTG reposted was by Joe, aka "Goldrunner" and "Nelderand". His writings are worth reading. You can check out his ediorials on precious metals at http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/goldrunnerndx.html
How does AMEP look under your STI microscope?
tharmon said it best in the first sentence of post 20516. Today news, the N-54C filing, creates a new reality and a backlog of production reports should soon begin to flow.
Load on Tuesday; RSI (14) 28.10 and CCI (48) -213.36. It doesn't get much better than that with a PPS way undervalued and oil/NG going north. I last bought in the .03s (with similar RSI and CCI numbers) when most posters were singing the blues like today.
Here are three: INXR, AMEP and HEGP
futrcash, Thank you for your PM. Due to my membership level I'm not able to respond -- perhaps some Friday afternoon during the free full membership trial period. I have you member marked as I share an interest in many of the same companies you have been following, including MKGP. GLTY
In regard to undervalued nature of Maverick, I agree. I have found only one other O/NG play that was similarly undervalued and that play will finally be self-evident in April, IMO.
A new proposal for the "No Brainers": AMEP (a start-up oil and natural gas company that owns two large rigs and has significant leases in the Barnett Shale -- a domestic O/NG play at a time when things are heating up in the Mideast) presently at .069. Short term indicators don't look so hot; intermediate time frame indicators look good-excellent. I am proposing AMEP at this point based on the backlog of significant production and related PRs -- soon to be released -- that have been tabled for many months (upon their attorney's advice) during the SEC review which has just been completed (with no fines, penalties, or disciplinary action). AMEP is way undervalued on what they own and they have little debt. AMEP shareholders recently (March 13th) voted to withdraw AMEP's election to be regulated as a BDC (Business Development Company). They have 50% ownership in a NG line that goes under the Brazos River. Their annual report is due at the end of March. Despite the PR freeze during the past several months, diligent investors have found valuable information on production at the TRCC website. Here is a list of PRs that should soon be released:
1. Hart 8
2. Hart 2
3. Padgett 2
4. Padgett 11
5. Padgett 12 -- a horizontal drill
6. Nash Murphy 1
7. Vivian Murphy 1
8. Challengers Debut (one their bigs rigs -- have you checked out what rigs are renting for? AMEP owns two)
9. Otis pump update from Oklahoma
10. Otis pump update in Texas
11. Existing lease consolidation
12. New leases aquired.....
12a) W. I. COOK CHILDRENS HOSPITAL, Lease No: 28955
12b) Evans Overstreet lease
13. New drilling permits....
13a) Evans Overstreet permit
GEH, just a note of thanks for your well written and informed responses to Mongo on the RB board.
The next two weeks are critical days in the history of AMEP. They will tell us if AMEP is willing and able to establish regular communications of any real substance with its shareholders or if the attainment of information will continue to be through secondary means, creating wild ups and downs in PPS. If it is the latter, "the last one to leave turn out the lights". One hopes that there is still some "Communicate Now" in AMEP.
futrcash, I, too, agree that MKGP is undervalued and that is why my two primary plays are here and in another O/G. I like the proven reserves especially in view of the Mideast situation, which will likely, IMO, bear significantly higher oil prices in the near or immediate term.
Simple, I've been watching DVNTF since you mentioned it a few days ago. As I noted in the earlier post, I've been using Wm%R (4)/(10) overlay along with your great STI setups. I've noticed that the Willy 4 shot up to oversold just prior to the last move and it has just done it again (a prelude to coming action?). The CMF is starting to turn up (I like to use (20)/(5) overlays), along with an upward movement of STO and the CCI (48) just touched the oversold area. Enjoyed watching DKAM make the projected move today. I don't own either of these stocks at the present time. Keep an eye on AMEP tomorrow. The stockholders meeting is at 10:00. I don't look for a big move now; that will probably come when the backlog of PRs start coming. I need to get a IHub subscription so I can post charts for your review.
I was looking at DKAM earlier using your STIs and another setup I like to use. See this setup here:
Magic Box,Fairy Square,Knight's Crossing,Money Mountain,Landslide are all inside this link.
http://www.stockseasonality.com/setups.htm
I have been looking at using Wm% R overlays of 4/9 as well. Thoughts?
Ken, in looking over my earlier post, I see I made a mistake. I meant to reference DKAM as looking good in the coming days. It is close to completing a Magic Box and it also looks good using Simplegreen's RSI 2/5 and 6/14 overlays (what he calls STI=Simplegreen Technical Indicators).
No problem. After you submit your federal owed (with all of your STI gains) our national debt should be pretty well taken care of! Thanks!
Any of you Dallas-area folks ever get out to Mineral Wells to talk with the people "on the street"? I'm invested with Maverick along with AMEP (which has 7,000 acres of leases in the Mineral Wells area). AMEP has a shareholders meeting on March 13th and they have a boat-load of production reports which have been held up pending the change (if voted in by shareolders) from BDC status to a more transparent company. From what I have gathered "from the street", they have some excellent producing wells (e.g. the Padgett lease, among others) to report. DYODD -- the next weeks will tell the real story (if, indeed, there is one!). Sure would be nice to see Maverick in the Barnett Shale.
I'll give the chart thing another try:
Thanks, Ken. That must be the reason it is not posting. Anyway, the technical indicators developed by Simplegreen uses overlays of RSI(2) and (5) along with RSI(5) and (14). The two overlay versions are necessary since the 2/5 shows "anticipated" PPS rise/fall short term while the 5/14 provides the "anticipated" PPS rise/fall long term. DKAT will be interesting to watch (as I noted before, I am not in it now) as a learning experience. Most of my "chips" are presently in AMEP where I am awaiting the outcome of the March 13th shareholders meeting and subsequent back-log of PRs. The coming weeks will show whether this was a good decision!
Thanks for your review and comments, Ken. Here is what I am using as a set up (first time I have posted a chart, so hope it takes!)
Hey Ken, take a look at this post; I've been using the STI setup in conjunction with your tools and it really works nice:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=17727339
You've gotta like the way DKAM is set up for Monday. I'm not in it now, but hope to be.
You can add another 720K; I voted this past week.
Thanks for your work on the STI. It is a facinating tool. I look forward to studying any charts you post with annotations for the purpose of demonstration. I also appreciate your comments on the other aspects one should keep in mind, e.g., support and resistance.
Simplegreen, take a look at EFJI in the November/December 2006 time frame in relation to your STIs. This looks like a classic -- what do you think about it? Based on your indicator, one could have sold and rebought for a significant gain (44% gain by my quick calculation).
Hey JCC, anything going on these days?
Thanks, again. Just took a longer term view of DVNTF. Looks like the bottom channel is around .54. Do you think the MA 200 will act as support or will we see a quick drop down into the bottom channel?
Gottcha! Now I understand (or better understand) what you meant when you wrote in your description above "a smooth rounded rise to trigger is very effective for prediction and you will also find strongest runs". Thanks much for that explanation SG. I look forward to learning more.
And, I should have added in my AMEP chart request: is it showing a potential cup and handle formation (using the STIs) between early December and February 20th?