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this chart is from tonights Larry Katz interview on marketviews.tv, the insider selling is approaching the levels of peaks seen at previous at bear rally market tops, at the same time mutual fund inflows have reached the levels of March 2002.
so the insiders are selling hard, the public his buying hard.
it's probably time to reign in the horns an donn one of zeev's bear suits.
Deuce is wild, ho ho ho
i just found out why the perma-bear threads are so quiet lately, they all moved here -g-
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=54049&ff=false&startid=6
Today, the only certainty is that . . . <<<
i guess that 'certainty' terminology was the deal killer, because very few people are certain at great all time tops or all time bottoms going against the crowd and those certain few were soitionly wrong a number of times before the turn, woob woob, woob.
prechter tries to be too much of a philosopher and big picture quant, the simplest thing in the markets is the 10,20,50,200 dma, if your taking a position against those trends, your chance of being wrong is much larger than your chances of being right. - his ST service is better at trending following.
wild ass predictions about the future, usually make you a wild ass idiot, i read that interview, the sentiment was indicating we were nearing a bottom then, and prechter's proclamation was part of that mix, now the sentiment is completely the reverse of that, the poor bears don't know waat hit em -g-
prechter did call the great bull market in the late 70's though, i believe in 78 he posted a chart showing the dow breaking out of the trading range with a parabolic upmove, but that was 4 years before the turn.
I nibbled a bit long at the close, to see if my range theory holds true, we'll see.
If he's right with his 2-3 day soft forecast, we take wing after Honorary Sir Al's Wednesday announcement. <<<<<
we'll have to see what happens, looks like 1600 is a given now on nasdaq, there was a spike in call buying late in the week, the perma bear threads were quite silent over the weekend, and this anecdotal sentiment sometimes telling, i was listening to a couple of bearish analysts on marketviews.tv on sunday, who have been fighting most or all of this rally, they sounded almost in tears, and it sounded like their subscriber base was up in arms -gg-
one of my favorite traders for the last couple of months, sunw left an island reversal today with the gap down.
(1) Almost anytime, such as today, that the Bull/Bear Ratio is greater than 2.0, it seems to be a warning to bulls to be very careful<<<<
I don't disagree with that, i was only pointing out periods in the past where the bull bear ratio was showing excessive bullish sentiment coming off bottoms, where the market continued up, there were several in the mid 80's after the 90 bottom and after the 98 bottom., some continued up for several months before a significant correction took place. The market normally would have rolled over during previous bear market rallies at II levels we saw over a month ago, so we'll see, bears need to take out 9000, 965, 1500 on the downside to get the ball rolling in their court again.
here is an interesting chart, showing that there have been periods extreme bullish sentiment off major bottoms, that have lead to only pauses.
The last time was after the 98 bottom, the sentiment was so strongly bearish at the bottom there were days an weeks of coverage in the newspapers about the asian crisis and the russian default, i believe there were at least a half dozen bears on the covers of weekly or monthly magazines, by november only a few weeks off the bottom, the surveys were showing extreme bullishness and the call buying was rampant, the market paused for a couple of weeks and then just kept going.
The meat (Cramer) is the main ingredient, but you have to add a dash of this, a dollop of that, a smidgen of something else, etc. Then you have to know how long to cook it and at what temperature<<<<<
-lol-
but then you have to throw in an abby joe ice cream cohen for dessert -gg-
it does make me nervous that he's screaming bullish, as well as the sentiment surveys, but the trend is still up, the 10 is still moving up but just turned slightly flat yesterday, and the naz is stalling here at the reversal peak of two weeks ago, and there is a chance we are now in about a 80-90 point trading range and the summation indexes are now rolling over so the trend is weakening a bit.
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the spx formed a contracting triangle trading range at the bottom of the summer 02 pole, in most cases trading ranges after long directional markets are consolidations and the former trend should emerge from that consolidation, it's the most probable,
and it didn't, so most people have been caught off guard by this uptrend, and despite some of the bullish surveys, there is still probably a lot of money on the sidelines to fuel this thing.
the trading range on the spy, targets us back at the 2002 highs.
there's nothing special about being right "at times". a monkey throwing its own sh-t at the WSJ will be just as right "at times".<<<<<
yep, and that sh*t might outperform most market timers.
if this signalwatch trendline is in place, i might have to prepare my 10K party animal --gg--
JCCI stood for Jim Cramer Contrarian Index. <<<<<
-lol-, i remember a tome by cramer around august-sept 00 titled 1994 redux, that was the consensus at the time that the trading range of 2000 was going to be like 94 -lol-
but there are times he has been right, he got bearish just as the market was topping out in march 00, you really can't count on anybody as an indicator because anybody that calls the market is going to be on the wrong side of it a fair share of the time, the only way to stay on top of it is too manage risk and cut your losses quick when your wrong.
he's been screaming bullish lately, but things look much different on this rally, than they have in a long time.
here is an interesting look at the vix consolidation
http://www.traders-talk.com/site/mb/show_topic.asp?id=41595&folderid=1
if i understand your charts/boodicator correctly, your sell signals are lagging and not coincident, right?<<<<<
can you show me any sell or buy signal that is 'coincident' that is anything other than a wild ass guess.
there are 3 types of markets, uptrending markets, downtrending markets, and sideways markets,
there are no "coincident" indicators that tell you when one type of market is going to change on a dime to the next type of market.
Here's todays chart of the day from the cotd folks, i added my own chart, but it looks like so far what looked right for a good reversal for at least a couple weeks correction, was just a retest of 9000, these kind of reversals would have caused the market to fall apart in most recent periods during the bear market (other than in early stages (a couple of weeks) off the bottoms of previous bear market rallies)
and the key words "until proven otherwise" are still in play, as they have been for a number of weeks now.
I just thought i'd put this chart up, there are a lot of bullish developments, breadth indicators are similar to the rallies off the 74 bottom, the 82 bottom and the 94 bottom, so during recent history these developments look quite bullish, but this market broke all records on the upside into 2000, nothing should surprise anyone, and people should be prepared for anything and keep a trading mentality, and stops.
Now there are a lot of skeptics of elliot wave, and there should be, because sometimes the wave counts are accurate, and sometimes not, but that goes with any indicator, sometimes the stoch's are overbought and the market continues up, etc.
I put this potential elliot count on my C chart a week or so ago.
and the bkx and the naz hit some pretty hot resistance areas on the gap up friday.
so there is the potential that this elliot count is still in effect and it could be the ending phase of the bear market rally from the july lows,
or it could be the first leg of a rally off the march lows, or the count may be wrong,
if the bears start loading up on puts on the pullback from this possible reversal day on friday - like they have on recent pullbacks, we probably are headed higher.
unless he defined a way to make those exits at the right time, the percentages are strictly hindsight wins.>>>>
trading the markets or speculating on tomorrow's temperature is pure gambling.
These chat rooms are a convenient conversation around a blackjack table at las vegas.
Looks like the former rather than the latter now, eh? {ng}<<<<
ya i wish i woulda listened to him more, but you know there is always somebody who is right and somebody who is wrong, and labeling them guru is misdirected, because guru is as fleeting as the top weekend box office gainer at the movies.
ya augie, i made big bets on the upside at times on this rally, but took profits too soon and at times bought in back at higher prices, still making money is better than loosing money, and i did have some downdrafts trying to catch the bottom in feb and march -ng-
I really hope we get a 200-300 point rally to break out on the dow now before a pullback, i hope the dow will follow C, but we'll see -g-
Overall failure rate 5%
Average rise of successful formations 39%<<<<<
augie doggy, is that why you bought LU at the retest of it's neckline breakout.
I traded that one during the breakout out of the triangle in april and may, but haven't touched that one lately because of the volume to the downside and the news, but it could really work anyway, a lot of these penny stocks could make real comebacks much farther than they have already.
of course no pattern, whether it's an H&S or a shooting star is going to guarantee you a trade that will make you enough money for gold crowns on your back molars -g-
there are no guarantees about the future, there are only speculations based on past behaviors.
If this game was a slam dunk, we would have nuttin to chat about -g-
Marc, i remember your posts about that, you were early on in noticing that, congrats.
way the neckline is drawn in the last version of the chart posted, wouldn't we at least expect something interesting on the volume when breaking through the neckline? or is that also regarded as unnecessary?>>>>
now if you want to see and inverted H&S that has a ripe chart encyclopedia volume pattern (though the neckline is all over the place, not a straight line) look at the nasdaq, which had big volumes into the june/july low, and decreasing volume at the subsequent lows and now is breaking out on expanding volumes.
the nasdaq is making higher highs and higher lows for the first time during the bear market, this could be a sign of speculation, or it could be the high beta index leading the pack into a cyclical bull that will last longer than most expect.
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i posted several days ago the citigroup chart stalling at the downtrend line which had repelled it at every bear market rally, it has taken it out convingly in the last few trading sessions, the whole pattern set-up looks like a potential for a run to new all time highs in C.
america great country, god bless america -g-
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Huge smile looking at your DOW9000 party card.<<<
Thanks George, I had fun making it.
If the Dow gets 9900 i'll have to search for a new party animal, a bear predator -g-
LG, i haven't tracked this indicator for a long time - though have looked at it at recent top areas, like last november, but after seeing that QQQ june put / call make-up from impristine, i decided to check this one out, it's a rare occurrence that has only happened at major turning points during the bear market (cfz posting <50), on Saturday the clown free zone had 41 posts, on sunday 35. Though I don't track it that carefully and i could be wrong there may have been times in between then and now (i doubt it) the last time posting had reached these meek levels was on the Saturday before the March 2002 top =g=
You may have seen this chart I posted on zeev's thread.
Well today the dow did a tail off 9000 and C did a tall tailed doji, so no cigar for the bulls, maybe you caught a top, as they say, we shall see, i did read on one of these threads today that richard rhodes was the last bear to capitulate in some goo-roo trading contest -g-
Well I'm partial to Tim Salmon batting in the 3rd position.
I tried to short this thing last week on what looked like reversal day but decided to leave the fish to people with better bait than me, when the fish wriggled off the hook -g-
I saw this from impristine today, kind of jaw dropping.
http://206.163.128.245/cgi-local/bang/qqq06.cgi
Added another 20% to my short position<<<<<
elgeeee, you tryin to be a salmon -g-
Thanks Lee Kramer.
Here's something for the bears, C has been a great indicator for bear market rallies and has been repelled at the downtrendline everytime, and we are sitting on it right now.
the only thing different is the huge panic volume trend changer that happened in july, so we'll have to SEE if C can break out and make the bulls HAPP-EEEEEEEEEEEEEE -g-
If you're going to claim to have a better 'mousetrap' for reporting sentiment, by all means, lay your cards(to switch metaphors)on the table. <<<<<
Sentiment is one of the squirreliest indicators around, i would never claim to have a better mousetrap, it's highly subjective and works best in trading ranges where you have a benchmarke for tops and bottoms,
and using contrary sentiment during trending markets is an exercise in futility, because crowds create trends, the question is have we entered a bullish trending market or is the nasdaq bull trapping everybody, while the dow is failing to break the range, and that can only be answered in the fullness of time, place your bets and make sure and use stops -g-
somebody else thinks the rumpus rooms have cute little teddy bears all over the walls =gg=
http://www.traders-talk.com/site/mb/show_topic.asp?id=38896&folderid=1
The market right now reminds me of Japan in 1999<<<
I don't think i can buy that analogy, in 1999 the nikkei was riding the nasdaq new economy wave like all world markets.
what may be a better comparison may be the initial bottom phases of the two bubble markets in the last 25 years, that would be the initial bottom of gold in 1982 and the initial bottom of the nikkei in 1992, the market bottomed last year 2002, maybe a pattern, they all bottomed at 4 year cycles.
It's fairly obvious right now this is not the 30's, with home prices skyrocketing and unemployment still in the mid single digits.
Gold made a slightly above 50% retrace of the drop before it rolled over, a coincident rally on the Spx would put us at around the 1100 something area.
the nikkei had less ooomph and probed into that big H&S top and rolled over,
pick your poison, which one, and of course this market may not act like those previous bubbles at all.
I think there is the potential that the major markets could break out and follow the nasdaq, of course i can't tell the future, nor can anyone else on these boards, or anywhere on WS, I just see a LOT of charts rolling up, and they haven't rolled over yet, they are making high lows and higher highs, the 200 dma is moving up, that's bullish until it changes, these boards are wallpapered with bears, sentiment is not as bullish as it's reported, the cboe p/c ratio has gone no-where in the last month while the markets have gone up, the rydex-ursa-nova ratio just a few days ago was near the march bottom.
How often has the Nasdaq gone up ~20% and then continued to go up without a significant, ~10% say, correction?<<<<
there are some other questions to ask, when was the last time the nasdaq (or $spx) 200 dma was in a nosedive for 3 years, when was the last time the $vix traded in a range from roughly 27-50 for about 9 months (june to march). When was the last time all the major averages were on top of rising 200 dma.
from a wychoff view the nasdaq has jumped the creek on expanding volume (broke out of a base) and backed up to pivot the 1500 area turning resistance into support, with 3 bell ringing days of cboe p/c ratios over 1 no less (1500 is a significant pivot going back to 1997)
a lot of people have been calling a top or expecting a correction for quite a while, me too, but at this point i wouldn't rule out the market continuing to go up and the dow & $spx breaking thru and following the nasdaq out of the trading range.
well besides having the hots for one legged gals.
i really am fascinated by the name deuce bigalow.
thats all, i like the way it rolls off your tongue, it's a perfect chat room alias -g-
it promotes the aspect of technical analysis that i subscribe to, that nobody knows manana, and we may fall into hell or heaven depending on our luck. =g=
although a little sweat may turn luck your way.
Arch Crawford???????????????????? <<<
no, I wouldn't subscribe to his newsletter, i prefer the direction of the 20dma to the alignment of venus and mars -g-
"you got to guess that one, i'm not giving it up"
I bet it's da cheif! {G} >>>>
-lol-
no, it was Sy Harding, that signal was also published on CBS Marketwatch in the newsletter section.
I am just a "I don't get paid for my stuff" anonymous poster on the internet...gg<<<<
LG, you should go primetime, even after the litigation meeker, blodgett, and abby joe are livin large in Bel Air -g-
the pivot and trend calling i leave to you smart guys. -g-<<<
us bigalow's have never been known as very smart -g-
damm i thought i'd take a few days off from the market, where it would probably go no-where and it catapults to the upside,
if miss cleo would have been around she would have told me that was just another pullback to 8500 support, not a trend changer -g- craps.
everythings on the table,
however there was a volume break on a big candle of an uptrendline, at the top of a trading range, probabilities are that it is an initiation of selling.
There are only a few guys that religiously follow seasonal cycles, you got to guess that one, i'm not giving it up -g-
He has both seasonal cycles and an independent market timing portfolio, based mostly on macd and rsi timing.
he's not always right, he has no more edge than you or me.
it's just another interesting, maybe distracting fact here.
there is no doubt that the market is ripe for a correction, if you put an elliot count on the $vix, you have 3 drives to a top from the july lows, the bears have been really killed over the last 9 months, lucretious has been advocating calls, that poor bugger could never muster enuf hooyas to go long during the greatest bull market in history.
it's quite possible we have seen the completion of a consolidation off the july lows and now a new impulse segment to new lows, the pattern off the july lows was an inverted H&S pattern, sometimes in bear markets these things make a minor breakout and reverse quickly and go to new lows, sometimes they just go to the breakout point and fail, and disapoint all the hopeful players, which are now 55% bullish on II>
fwiw, one of my newsletters (who shall remain unnamed because i pay for this #), who follows seasonal timing cycles, went on a major sell signal today.
So, now the question is have we completed a major consolidation off the july lows and are beginning a new downtrend to new all time lows or at least near the bottom of the range from last summer, or will we have a minor pullback for a couple of weeks and the market will regenerate and attempt to assault new highs.
what does your crystal ball say,
As I used the gas tank analogy for my multiple time frame analysis over bought and over sold models allow me to use a race car drivers use of speed to suggest when to use more or less of your capital, exposure and risk to the markets if you will.<<<<<<<
That's good LG, however you know we are emotional creatures and as the race is getting hot sometimes you want to speed thru a turn and risk possible flame-out skid into the wheat bales, you know that the biggest gains are sometimes as the trend is near an end. Not everybody has the mentality or aptitude or the time to scale in and scale out.
I've watched and participated in several types of trend following and trend changing methods, nothing works all the time, but i've come to regard trend following until a recognizeable trend change and letting the market take you out, is better than anticipating a trend change and as i posted here there have been a plethora of top calls since late march not just from these boards but from a lot of market timers who spend all their time watching the markets.
From late march to early april, and getting in this rally WELL after the bottom, there were many stocks you could have gotten into that were 1.5x, doubles or triples. I caught a few or parts of a them (damm i left the big fish on the table though -g-)