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Smooth,
I think the In
Hans,
I guess the most important question for all of us investors is simple: Who will be the first company to turn the technology into real money (i.e. $B's)? My bet is on Intel because I believe IBM will repeat their Cell disaster. It's typical IBM, develop a great wiz bang technology but not the ability to produce it in any volumes in TTM to make real $.
Snow
Agreed. The FA would only show Frenchee the debt burden AMD will be carrying in 2007. It wouldn't show him that the only hope AMD has in 2007 is K8L and even that will be extremely limited in volumes, only targeted at the server market, and not due to release until 2H07.
Snow
Frenchee,
It may always be darkest before dawn, but the sun just set for AMD and there's a long night ahead of them. Time for you to do your due diligence. You may want to include fundamental financial analysis with your tech analysis.
Snow
Looks like The Fool is being foolish again.
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/01/31/the-best-tech-stock-for-2007-amd.aspx?source=ep...
Idiot deserve what he gets in 2007. Kate or Alan, you still on MF? Ever see this editor post?
Snow
And yes, i think of Penryn in the same way i thought of Willamette
Interesting thought process considering Willamette (P4) was a significant archticture change from CuMine (P3), while Penryn is a process shrink of the existing NGMA. Seems to me it fits in the Willamette to Northwood analogy a little better than the P3 to P4 analogy.
Snow
Chipguy said celeron "CLASS"
Snow
That said, I expect the ATI acquisition and investment in manufacture will show positive returns in the long run
Perhaps, but the real question is whether or not the Net Present value of those positive future returns are greater then the present value of the current investment.
Snow
I'll admit, you have me on that one. I'm sure NGMA was getting pretty annoying to hear about, but at least Intel "put up" and did so ahead of schedule. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that AMD is doing more talking lately and less execution. This isn't the AMD of 2004 and 2005.
Snow
I am probably one of the only Intel longs who truly sees K8L as a threat
Nope, I do too and so does Intel. Only the Paranoid Survive!
Snow
I think they would if they could. But working overhours during pregnancy does not deliver the baby sooner.
ROFL, that's the first time I've heard that saying. Love it!
Snow
IMHO, I think it's time for AMD to "put up" or "shut up". I'm tired of hearing about how good AMD's non-production products are. They certainly don't help AMD financials.
Snow
Randy Allen is happy to claim 40% performance over Intel, but he clams up when asked about specifics.
Of course he didn't provide specifics because he assumed everyone knew that he was talking about a 40% improvement over Intel's chips running Windows Task Manager! ;)
Snow
what will happen to the current 90nm fabs producing chipsets?
Retool for 30nm?
Snow
correction 19% unit growth for the mobility group not severs.
Snow
Joe,
You said Intel units went up by less than 12.3% (Info from quarterly releases and conference calls)
Here is a link to the INTC CC Transcript.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/24326
I read through it and couldn't find any mention of a 12.3% unit growth. I found a 19% increase for server units but that was it. I also went through the earnings release and couldn't find that information either. Perhaps you can point out where you found or derived the 12.3% unit increase for INTC.
Thanks,
Snow
Duke,
What you're seeing is the difference between the old CEO, who was an Engineer, Craig Barrett and the new CEO, who is a Salesman, Paul Otellini. Paul is focusing the company on finding new and innovative ways to meet the customer's need.
Snow
Smart man!
Snow
Keith,
I understand the point you are making. Basically, HP sells both Intel and AMD so we can't assume all the HP sales increases were due to Intel. I agree with this assessment. However, you are using faulty data to prove your point. Using HP's broad AMD product offerings doesn't mean that HP sold those products. Personnally, I'm going to wait for the 3rd party companies to provide MS data.
Snow
Joey,
Just a speculation, but I believe the strategic driver behind keeping the flash business is Samsung. As long as Intel has a flash division they can fight Samsung on their own turf rather then letting Samsung get a foot hold in the CPU market.
Snow
You're right Ron and I think that's the real source of passion behind Mas's statements.
Snow
It appears you're right. In the conference call, the analysts are really focused on the start up costs and how they affect future earnings.
Snow
Appreciate your humility. I'm surprised by the after hours movement...hmmm
Snow
Fab 8 = 150MM, 6" Wafer Fab and they actually sell mostly to the automotive industry not flash or comms. Enough said.
Snow
I hope you're right. I would hate to see inventory write offs.
Snow
Hey everyone, check out the AMD board. They're getting a few TA posters there too. I'm a little curious why all the sudden both the INTC and AMD boards are getting blitzed by TA investors we've never even seen before.
Snow
I just hope Intel's inventory is in better shape and their ASPs remain healthy. I'm hoping to see inventory at $3B or less. I believe it was at $4B last quarter.
Snow
I guess I get what I pay for. Thanks for validating.
Snow
Dude, go away or get banned. You're obviously a spammer, so scram.
Snow
LMAO....Thanks!
Snow
That's terrible news for AMD. A 3% sequential gain between Q3 to Q4 is very weak. Also, if you look at YoY figures, they declined significantly. AMD earned 1.83B in Q4 05, that's a $500M drop YoY.
Snow
BUGGI,
It's not a matter of right or wrong, it's simply an incomplete picture. Intel has a mobo manufacturing plant in Malaysia. They used to have a mobo tech development center in Oregon, but I don't know if it exists anymore. Additionally, you need to add Foxconn to your list of FEM's. I believe the majority of Intel mobo's are built by Foxconn. Especially the mobo's that Dell uses in their systems.
Snow
Dell has shown (and now HP too) that SFF systems are popular for business desktops. I like the concept for home systems where there isn't a lot of space and where high-powered computing isn't needed.
But how much volume is there in this space. From what I see, in coporate america, a lot of businesses are moving to laptops.
I wish that they'd put a little effort in making a faster notebook chip instead.
Agreed, because I think this is where most of the future volume of business purchases will be.
Snow
I don't think AMD will settle for the low end. After all, they didn't invest so much into the server market to let it slip away completely. AMD's problem right now is execution and poor timing of the ATI purchase. 2007 is going to be rough on AMD's financials.
Snow
Next week is going to be a good week...fingers crossed:
Jan 15 - Payday
Jan 16 - INTC Earning Announcement
Jan 17 - Worlds of Warcraft Burning Crusades is released
Snow
This (20$) is bottom for AMD
I think the investors on this board are a little too smart to believe that.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amd
Snow
Thanks kpf, now my brain can start processing facts rather than itching... :)
Snow
I can well imagine Barcelona will regain the Halo: Barcelona is a Vista-Product - and the benchmarks will be made on Vista.
This statement implies that C2D is not a Vista-Product. You have me scratching my head. I really doubt MS would release an OS that isn't supported by IA. Especially considering 75%+ of the market runs IA. Please clarify.
Snow
but what was TWY doing out there in the rain?
Ask IBM Management, they would know, they canned his ass.
Snow
I guess that's what happens when you don't have to put two IBM CPU's in the box to be competitive :) Apple made a really good decision switching to Intel and I think Steve is very happy about his decision. He couldn't have timed it better. As IPod sales begin to level out he can increase growth via PCs.
Snow