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This is not the lemmings...
I would wait till next week to buy, going under $2 this week...
JPS collapse first, commons follows soon after as usual...
JPS crapping blood tells you what you need to know...
Mnuchin lost the battle in the adminstration, his friend Otting floated a trial balloon and then Mnuchin lost the battle...
Calabria and FHFA want something to happen, but Calabria is a politically inept and unconnected flunky
Mnuchin told the WSJ nothing is happening -- you might listen... They pled before SCOTUS and they will wait for judgement, ergo nada in this Presidential term
Hmmm, I guess I will come back Tuesday and see if you guys are still waiting for SPSA amendment...
They should label it "ELECTION CHALLENGE" and maybe Trump reads it -- plus tell him that SPSA amendment negates the electoral college certification... then *maybe* he pays attention...
SPSA amendment is not imminent lol
I would expect JPS sell-off to accelerate today... we shall see
Next Tuesday I expect a rout to start or be ongoing
But I am not invested (obviously!) but I will sniff around when we hit the $5's and 20% par -- tho I think maybe might get illiquid issues way, way lower
I will think hard about taking a gamblers stake below 20% par on JPS and a SCOTUS hail mary...
What happened yesterday to change your mind?
It confirmed my thesis that Trump has left the building politically -- Trump does not care about anything now. PLUS Mnuchin is in a tight spot, he does not have Trump's backing (cos he does not care) and even if Trump backs it Mnuchin would be in danger since now Trump has lost support across the poitical spectrum -- they are talking 25th amendment on both sides of the aisle
I don't think admin action is coming in any shape or form
BTW Mnuchin was VERY wise to go off on a foreign trip at just the moment of the rally... that boy is a survivor
It is his tattoos that he is more worried out, I hear there is not much room left on his arm after all the crossed out years and months -- he may go for a spider's web to join them all up...
I liked a "Decemeber to Remember" and you can stick with it -- deadline is now only 11 months away again
Our Friend in Miami, and I always assumed Glen's mentor, has made out with St. Joe which boomed on the housing surge.. since he has the whole fund in that one stock basically lol. Not sure what our Friend in Miami thinks about FnF now?
The bottom is coming next Tuesday, like I said .. please keep up
I am doing well with the percentages lol
I am more confident that next week, absent admin action on Monday, will be a blood-bath from Tuesday onwards (but maybe next Friday is the rout?)
I do not think they do a PSPA amendment at the last minute -- the optics would be suicidal... midnight dealings etc
Not even close, wait for Monday if there is no admin action... going to be brutal
(On other hand, admin action might get you $4... not my trade tho)
I agree about that, but I think Monday 11th is the bid day -- nothing by then and it is over
Mnuchin is not going to pull a stunt on 18th or 19th, since it just makes it look even worse -- midnight shenanigans are not a good look when you know they will scream "hedgefund payoff"
Monday is the moment of truth imho
Well, just the little matter of SCOTUS's ruling coming up as the highest and final court of the land...
Curious what the hell that would lead to if they rule positively for plaintiffs
And still going -- personally I think this gets a lot worse for JPS. Wait till Monday and no admin action, then whoosh...
Commons usually lags JPS, so I think it is going to $1.50 or lower next week on the big volumes we see when they short it with impunity
Well, we ALREADY hit the $5's, so maybe we do see 5% of par and that $2.50 mark... when folks all try to sell this illiquid crap with no buyers, well... LOOK OUT
Told you to take $7.41 on FNMAS, now $6.80 and dropping like that stone...
And it ain't ugly yet, but it is coming...
Incoming fast...
Wow, I am behind about Court of Claims...
So, I assume you all know that Margaret Sweeney is no longer chief judge of court of claims (since Trump appointed a ex-Pence counsel)
And you also know that Sweeney is no longer the judge for Fairholme case:
Re: Fannie/Freddie-New COFC Judge. Judge Stephen Schwartz, a Trump appointee, has been reassigned the NWS cases previously heard by Judge Sweeney. Remember, we have multiple backstops especially since SCOTUS seemed to level up takings claims.
— Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy) January 5, 2021
I would sell at that $7.41 price while you can... by Tuesday next week with no administrative action, then... LOOK OUT
GL to all longs...
BUCKLE-UP, this rout is just getting started...
Maybe a buying opp coming -- buying targets for me?
Start thinking about buying at $5 for high yield $25 JPS
Start thinking about common at $1.50, start buying when we get near the doller holla: $1
This will unravel REAL fast when she starts to move...
$5's for the $25 JPS is incoming. Why?
Cos NOW you have a Democratic senate and house and president -- Jim Parrot or Mark Zandi can now press their crazy "reform" schemes...
Look out!
No administrative action by next Monday and we will see some really low prices for JPS... I mean people piling on the exits
The clever folks are the ones today taking something of a loss while they can, by Tuesday you will be getting a pittance...
Well GA is over, congressional circus finished today -- so no action on Thursday or Monday and you can kiss it goodbye
We have not hit the skids yet, wait till Jan 17, 18 and 19... then we see some capitulation... or more likely Jan 12th and no action
So FNMAT already hit the $6's today, so maybe we do see 10% on some of the JPS?
Once they start hitting 20% I will take a look, the more illiquid ones could really really tank on no action
The far simpler hypothesis is that they are not doing anything at all...
Ok then lol, I mean 20% -- thinking $5
But if there is a rush to sell it could go lower
If we go through inauguration with no action, then I think JPS is going down to 10% of par -- so $5 for FNMAS... I *might* take a gamble at those prices on SCOTUS doing the right thing AND a right thing that benefits shareholders
At $8 is way overpriced for no action, it is starting to melt but going to get ugly if no action as people try to sell illiquid stuff...
We will see, I don't see any meaningful action so no amendment -- to act meaningfully they need to settle with shareholders or give them what they want, but they would not have gone to SCOTUS if they planned to do that
Calabria and FHFA clearly want action and have been feeding the press stories -- BUT Mnuchin has said he is not acting... so...
We wait on SCOTUS imho, but as you say we have 14 days to wait to find out.
BTW The reports of Mark Zandi as a possible new FHFA director under Biden should scare the crap out of anyone invested...
Glenn sounding desperate and being called out devastatingly in the comments (ie it has been "this year" six times, it has been "this month" five times, etc):
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397273-final-countdown-to-inauguration-for-pspa-amendment
Sad stuff
Very good questions -- and who does she actually know amongst the decision-makers?
The new claim is they wait till after GA elections -- but those voters don't care
The Donald makes all the final decisions and he is focussed only on his election loss... This has been done for two years, there is no administrative action coming which is why they pled before SCOTUS whose decision they are now waiting on, ergo no action
Yeah, we are in uncharted territory with crazy cheap money all around the world...
FFFActs, who knows? But the US markets look like a house of cards to me... I prefer a few value stocks in Europe and Asia, and some I find in USA
I think that is the preference of FNMA common holders, right?
They have enjoyed it for years...
I read his stuff having a good grip now on who he is as an investor... I do not think he knows how to spell risk let alone assess or mitigate it
It takes all kinds to make a market...
yeah, Glen seems to want to get rich quick, so he keeps finding any and every special situation -- but he does not seem to have very good judgement
Can pick 'em... GNW was always a disaster
I followed this cos I researched it a couple of years ago and decided to leave it well alone - so many red flags
Yeah, I listened but I have learned that why Federal judges ask questions is far, far from clear
I hope you are right, but we shall see
I do not think there is any administrative action coming, Trump is otherwise occupied and cares about not domestic policy issues
I am just not tempted to bet on a Federal court ruling at these prices given the possibility of a "clever" AIG-style ruling with no payoff for shareholders...
GL to all longs
I missed SCOTUS saying that, can you post a link? lol