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Take your grammar exercises elsewhere. FF was on point with his 'supercharged' comment and backed it up with a very damning citation.
Got some anecdotal evidence I dug up for EPA. Not deeply compelling of course but just trying to bring some fresh material to the board.
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/790971
"Kiribati's ischemic heart disease mortality rate was the lowest" in developing nations.
http://globaltableadventure.com/2011/09/27/about-the-food-of-kiribati/
"At the end of the day, if I had to sum Kiribati’s cuisine up with one word, it would be FISH."
Great post, I've had several people warn me about 'the bubble' that article expresses the counterargument very well.
Here's another interesting read regarding placebo rates in trials:
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34572482
Fortunately I don't think it pertains much to us, seeing as this isn't a pain, depression, or anxiety based trial.
Raf, great point... Management is being very opaque about the trial to prevent any further investor suits. They would not be stating 2016 for interim without some sort of buffer.
Having wine on your 6th birthday?! Yeah you certainly are bending the rules, youngster hahaha
Interesting, I've always ruled out juicers as unhealthy but never considered this. Even if you keep the fiber, by emulsifying you increase the surface area for absorption in the stomach, increasing the glycemic load. Basically shredded ice vs ice cubes in a cup of water. Thanks for the tip!
I don't understand JL's concern about that. If it were a juicer, I would: removing the fiber increases the glycemic load, as I understand it.
But if you're just chopping this up super-fine with a vitamix, the fiber is still there, increasing satiety and decreasing glycemic load.
As long as you're doing it in moderation (juice diets sound like a great way to get diabetes) and not removing the fiber or adding sugars, it seems healthy to me. But I'm no doctor, as you know.
Curious to hear from the real experts.
I've tried talking him onto V. I was very excited to send him the JELIS subgroup paper because he's T2D with a prior low-grade MI. As far as a know he isn't on it yet; I'll be more persistent when I'm home for the holidays
thanks Kiwi, I'll give it a look
30 years?! wow. Seems like you're doing just fine then! My old man went on them a few years ago. I noticed a slight decline in his... acuity, for lack of a better term. I always chalked it up to his retirement, never considered it was the statins until I got on this board. A shame, since I was just starting in the same career he spent 30+ years doing, but couldn't talk the jargon with him bc his memory was hazy.
Thanks! Not so sure I would want it published though; it has a weird creative writing vibe to it because I didn't have enough time to develop the arguments. And I agree 10% was a high number but I wasn't able to verify with sources, so I erred on the high side.
I'm sure the Clinton campaign thinks it's > 50%, like you just walk into White Oak, pop a pill, and if you don't die in 15 minutes you get a stamp with your approval and indications on it.
Walsh, I dig it. I did it with CRIS and I'll do it again with AMRN if things get weird. Happy trading to you too!
Yeah I thought the analogy was weak and cheesy too. Wish I could have though of something better.
The Hatch-Waxmann thing's a bit embarrassing, but it was closed book,closed notes.
My DD is as thorough as my day job allows. Thanks for the feedback!
so you suffer from mild cognitive impairment? hahaha
I hope 'improve it' isn't leading to a bad pun. Bear in mind I only had 90 minutes to compose it.
Raf I disagree: this isn't a bar fight, and we shouldn't stifle negative perspectives on AMRN, so long as the points are salient.
Look if Mog was out there making wildly negative conjectures about AMRN like BB does in the positive sense, I would disregard. (No hate BB, you've done more awesome DD contributions to this board than me, you're just too much optimism for me). But his points are reasonable: the company IS burning cash, even JT himself ISNT certain of the RI outcome (why else would he hedge in the CCs?).
And before anyone makes absurd accusations that I'm a hedge short, all of you have seen my personal contact info and identity. I'm not hiding behind smoke and mirrors.
My grad school midterm, critiques welcome :)
It's already turned in so don't worry you're not helping me cheat :P
3. What role does government play in fostering innovation? Is it necessary to have government involved to have innovation? Why or why not?
A common misconception is that a good government makes a good economy. In reality, a good government makes a great economy possible. Government interactions with technology are like a plow: if it tills the right spots, at the right depth, it will make the seeds that fall so much more fertile. But should it not till, or till too deep, or till without guidance, it may flood the field and suffocate every seed of innovation.
The government that tills too deep floods the field by embracing innovation at any cost. Tax breaks, grants, and lucrative contracts without accountability or moderation are the characteristics of such a government. For examples of this government misstep, one need only glance at the renewable energy policy embraced in the 2000’s. Firms like A123, Solyndra, and Fisker Automotive, and numerous others received massive grants and loan guarantees, totaling billions of dollars, yet never turned a profit. The result was almost no technological innovation, at steep taxpayer expense.
Government is leadership, and apathetic leadership is doomed to failure. The government that stands aside, refusing to till the field and taking no sides in the process of innovation will leave innovation stunted by lack of stimulus. In this scenario the innovating company is struggling against mighty and formidable odds. They have a powerful idea, product, and innovation that may change the world, but their industry imposes high barriers to entry. A perfect example of this scenario is a small biotech company. They often begin as off-shoots of university research, with compounds licensed out for commercialization. Such companies face crushing odds. They must somehow gather the funding to push their drug through three separate phases of trials, usually costing hundreds of millions of dollars and taking about half a decade. If the FDA decides that their drug is both safe and effective after all these expenses, they may market it. Less than 10% of all drugs entering clinical research reach this point.
The battle doesn’t end there: so-called “generic” manufacturers would mimic the active ingredients of the promising new drugs and sell them for pennies on the dollar. The firms that spent millions of dollars proving the safety and efficacy of these drugs would lose market share and their potential profit. Clearly such innovations were a perilous investment.
In 2004, the Hatch-Waxmann Act was passed by Congress and signed into law. It stipulated minimum periods of “exclusivity” for manufacturers of novel drugs, rendering them temporarily immune to competition from generic drug manufacturers. The law helped de-risk investments in new biotech firms, promising them a short-lived monopoly to recoup the expensive research they had undertaken to prove their drug. This proactive government move fostered a boom in biotech innovation, with biotech IPOs reaching record highs in recent years. The result of this government policy will be reaped in the years to come as novel and highly effective drugs survive a process that otherwise would have smothered them.
The final way a government can affect the growth of innovation is to till the field in an arbitrary, wandering manner. This occurs when government directly imposes unnecessary burden on innovators, whether it be financial, legal, or otherwise. To return to the realm of healthcare, the Food and Drug Administration has recently fought a series of legal battles involving “off-label” promotion of drugs. Doctors are permitted by law to prescribe any FDA-approved drug for any use, even if it was not the use originally approved by the FDA. This allows doctors to be innovators in their field of expertise without being micro-managed. “Off-label” prescriptions are particularly common in oncology, as physicians furiously seek innovative ways to fight a myriad of unique cancers. Often these cancer drugs have properties that allow them to help fight other cancer types, and it is not uncommon for multiple drugs to be used simultaneously in so-called “combo therapy”. These life-saving treatments would not have been possible if the FDA imposed rigorous rules which dictated a drug could only be used for its FDA-approved indication. In this respect the government is still placing unnecessary burden on innovation by restricting “off-label” marketing, but not “off-label” use. Restricting “off-label” marketing which is truthful and non-misleading denies healthcare providers the most current information about treatment options for their patients and stifles innovation.
To make a prosperous tech-based economy, a government must incentivize and de-risk innovation, but must be wary of spoiling industries with lavish reliefs, or smothering it with burdensome regulations. Such a government needs rigorous internal review, diligent public scrutiny, and executive responsibility, but its reward will be golden fields.
I'm not "emotionally attached" to this thing either. But I see your point, this is a little too deep down the rabbit hole for them to bother with: they probably aren't going to change the minds of anyone here.
I'd say welcome aboard, but you've been here longer than me!
Walsh you misread me. I'm not blaming shorts for PPS, I'm saying I wish that we had a few resident shorts of JL or HDG's caliber. The exuberance and confidence on this board makes me uneasy at times, and I'd like to hear some darker analyses.
Unfortunately, I think he said and meant 100, based on his 'toxic' comment. Blatantly irrational.
Where are the shorts?! I want to hear counter-arguments about RI, dammit!
Kiwi can you lure them over here from YMB?
"A yellow bird
witha yellow bill
sat up upon
my windowsill
i lured him in
with a piece of bread
and then i smashed
his yellow head"
:)
JL is smart as a whip, but I think he over-simplified this one. I can't strictly rule his idea out. Divergence analysis seems plausible... but the simple fact that enrollment fluxed over time plays hell with the math.
Kiwi, my condolences... I worry about my old man all the time. He's already had an MI and is on statins now. Based on what I've read here and seen in interactions with him, I understand the disdain for statin treatment... it is a bit of compromise...
I totally agree with your posts in regards to geography affecting likelihood of MACE. I'm familiar with Eastern European health habits, or the general lack thereof. I just don't think it will affect RI outcomes much.
'the opposite occurs in your town', huh? I really do need to pay a visit sometime ;)
but Kiwi if I'm understanding JL right, I think what he's saying is reasonable. The assumption that RI subjects will exhibit equally healthy behavior in active and control arms is fairly safe. Their health behavior will likely be normally distributed, regardless of which arm they are. I suppose it's reasonable to entertain the idea that V will boost the mood and health habits of the active arm.
JL, do you really think the company hasn't seen this? The disclosures tie the researchers to the company pretty well
Hypothetical questions for you reflect on, because this is way off-topic and I don't care enough but...
How is it different? If your company fails to fulfill its contract, won't it also lose its "guaranteed" revenue?
GTAT had a contract too.
HDG I agree with everything. Scripts ramping up in conjuction with ending enrollment and litigation should alter the CF.
I'm relieved someone here can acknowledge that Mogwai is bringing up some very valid points without simply name-calling and dismissing him as a hedgie short.
First saying '100% chance' of R-IT success is pretty much akin to sts's claims that he 'knows' UA will be higher in 6-12 months. I understand these statements as assertions of the highest confidence imaginable.
Second, Amarin is hemorrhaging money. Not exactly a shocker for a small biotech, but the financing question is going to raise its ugly head in a few more quarters.
Third, anyone who hopes for a BO before interim is delusionally optimistic.
isn't it the same dose used in JELIS? Granted there are dietary differences...
Not just a single stock... a single stock undergoing Chapter 11... 0_0
Raf those numbers add to 100. Maybe HD is playing editing tricks on you.
"We look forward to discussing this with you and are committed to working with you as we strive
to protect the public health without unnecessarily imposing regulatory burdens on the marketing
of products of potential clinical importance."
Good find BB; certainly sounds like a different tone...
awesome post, JL. Now I want to go find some horse races haha...
The last paragraph reminds me of the only poetry I've ever really liked:
George Gray
I have studied many times
The marble which was chiseled for me—
A boat with a furled sail at rest in a harbor.
In truth it pictures not my destination
But my life.
For love was offered me and I shrank from its disillusionment;
Sorrow knocked at my door, but I was afraid
Ambition called to me, but I dreaded the chances.
Yet all the while I hungered for meaning in my life.
And now I know that we must lift the sail
And catch the winds of destiny
Wherever they drive the boat.
To put meaning in one’s life may end in madness,
But life without meaning is the torture
Of restlessness and vague desire—
It is a boat longing for the sea and yet afraid.
Raf, I agree. Love the poker analogy.
Interesting quote on SEC's definition. I guess I was wrong.
Of course is potential 'for you to lose it all'. This potential always exists, in any company. Like JL said, don't fool yourself:'investing' is 'gambling'. The question is are you 'investing' like a drunken sailor on shore leave, or like the MIT Blackjack Team?
To be clear, I'm not 'betting the farm'. AMRN could go to 0.00 today and nothing about my lifestyle would change. I have 3 retirement accounts (only 1 is invested in AMRN) and almost no consumer debt.
I hope no one here is 'betting the farm'. Reading that GTAT board is sobering. Making a few bucks isn't worth putting your family, health, or sanity at risk.
Kiwi,
I'm just having fun about the ROI thing... I would gladly take your 13% across 20+ years over my 200% in 2.
I share raf's doubt about investing 5k at 13% and never investing more. That's just weird.
If my investment strategy was 'limit losses' I would be in bonds not equities.
It's a silly debate really; the issue is that for me time is too scarce a resource and outweighs the risk reduction gained from following five companies.
Warren Buffett is NOT someone I aspire to be. Nothing against his character, but I have no idea how the hell his family tolerated his obsession so long. I don't want to live for money, I want money so I can experience new things in life.
Walsh,
I regret referencing Warren Buffett. While I understand that there was a time when he hunted down paper stock certificates for some obscure lumber company or such with a massively undervalued inventory, he did mostly deal with very large, recognizable brands like Coke, BP, Gazprom, etc. I don't like his lifestyle anyway. The workaholic part, not the modest way he lives.
But Bill Browder did make billions in what were essentially Russian 'penny stocks'. He only 'diversified' because by the end he had more money than one company could handle.
below $5 is a penny stock? You could have a company with MC of 50M with shares at 7.50 and another company MC of 2B with shares at 3.50... Berkshire Hathaway could split its stock to fifty cents apiece if they wanted... who cares about share price(unless talking about delisting) ?