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TED- also you to consider, ISC has reached the end of their rope- going it alone on DM loans that simply keep the company afloat so DM can convert-dilute does NOT advance their goals nor nourish their aspirations.
I see ISC as an innovator with true aspirations for the benefit of this country and ROTW. They cannot do it on their own.
So perhaps, if a BUY IN or BUY OUT cannot be struck, the best way to handle that would be to keep talking and to talk to US about their continuing discussions. This could be a very positive development that sort of loosens the SP straight jacket.
Converse to that idea, all talk stops, DM re-ups on same terms, SP tanks and discussions begin again in a few months but the SP Straight Jacket will be much tighter, not looser.
All of the tough negotiations go down to the wire, according to the Great Orange Chimp...
I don't know that I agree with you:
Mar 28, 2016 0.32 0.32 0.28 0.31 225,100 0.31
Mar 24, 2016 0.32 0.34 0.30 0.32 147,300 0.32
Mar 23, 2016 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.31 156,400 0.31
Mar 22, 2016 0.30 0.35 0.30 0.30 440,400 0.30
Mar 21, 2016 0.28 0.31 0.28 0.30 72,600 0.30
Mar 18, 2016 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.29 84,000 0.29
Mar 17, 2016 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.28 83,300 0.28
Mar 16, 2016 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.30 86,300 0.30
I think AVE VOL is about 160K...
Pat- the company played its part in painting the drama into the 3-31 event. They addressed all 4 strategic tracks as "in play" just to let every know that things are complicated and to NOT tip their hand. So the build up continues.
While ISC is a very small company and a semi-secret company, good news always leaks...so a big push up in volume on NO news could be telling.
IMO, ISC has everything going for it right now EXCEPT the SP...that is a bit of straight jacket in any forward valuation determination.
TED- I agree that allowing DM to reprice their 1.18 options lower is a good compromise IF they are going to pay DM out via part of an equity buy in by partner.
The market would respond very well to any indication that DM is moving OUT and a lower convert price for those options helps to do that...IF...they have enough to pay them out on all their other loans.
That is a good way to begin to gain some of the glory due to ISC for all they have accomplished. As it is now, the more they accomplish, the more they are punished via SP disdain.
In terms of deadlines...well its rare to go to the wire on a simple refi so I think you can assume that there are plenty of moving parts making 3-31 a kluge-like event.
I think Buffalo hit the solution on the head, a stock for stock event is easy and painless for the buyer and offers nice upside for we the lowest of the low, ISC Loyal Longs.
Buffalo- stock for fully converted stock certainly is an easier way to go if say L-3 investors see the deal as accretive in year one. A $168M IDIQ and pending Euro sales certainly make it more acceptable, imo. I would be very much in favor of that at $350M valuation. ( who wouldn't?)
Pat- when you said this: I did suggest that I might take advantage of "overreactions" to a disappointing PR
You triggered more idle speculation, I guess.
But speculating about optimistic speculation would amount to what? Harmless idle chatter about equally harmless idle chatter? Everybody has a motive and a guess.
I have made my guesses but I won't be joining you as a POTENTIAL buyer if they re-up on same terms and do NOT speak to other strategic alternatives in a positive manner. But heck yes, its possible. I am guessing you give it a high % of likelihood?
Why is it taking so long? ( that would be the followup if your guess is re-up on near or same terms)
SHAD- I disagree that a R/S would lure in new investors IF DM is still converting debt to shares at the pro-rated 8 cent level. THAT is THE problem with ALL investors- why buy a 40 cent share today that comes with debt that will turn that 40 cents into 20 cents....that is it in a nutshell re: SP decay.
Now if the serial dilution stops at a low low low 8 cent level, well, the SP can handle some dilution from time to time.
IGH/BUFFALO= that is a tactical nuke of sorts. Not sure how TSA views the reliability of a key provider during that process but it is happening more and more.
But would not DM move to claim all assets and thus gum that up for a while thus repelling TSA B-220 purchases AND all other events?
Larger point- a smart creditor does not kill the golden goose nor injure it in any way but it may tighten a lesh. I think DM would be smart to run a few scenarios because right now their dilution is taking from the net gain on their converts that are diluting. If they can't see that they are their own worst problem, then its hard to see anything getting done.
suk - integration in its final form depends on the integrator. As it was shown, it simply meant a unit behind ( not in) the EDS machine...the assumption, the EDS machine's mechanisms trigger-control the ETD unit down the conveyor.
McGann spoke about this in revealing detail. Regarding your doubt in "5 to 6" companies showing interest- well that would be the company's statement so only they can clarify THAT.
Regarding your point that ETD-EDS is "many years away", well I think NOT, 1St Detect and Smith's have claimed a pole position of sorts in this race.
One thing this mgt. has done well/not so well--is inform investors as to their progress. Is the non-contract multi-headed vortexing inline ETD unit that ISC developed/ is developing a weak offering? Hard for me to say YES...they would be fools to present a weak product...but a nearly finished product- sure.
But if you think the rest of the EDS makers are going to pull back and wait and see-- well, you just took a ticket to the tar pit. IMO.
PAT- so let me get this straight re your position-- you own the stock, you doubt a buy in / buy out is going to succeed at this time and you think a re-up with DM on the same terms is likely but don't have an inkling as to the effect that type of re-up will have on SP direction/velocity?
Joe-- TSA has actually illustrated an inline ETD unit behind the AIT. They want it for passenger baggage-carryons(?) and certainly cargo.
And this is the long shot- they will eventually screen 100% of airport workers and all of their "bring to work" things.
The ETD-EDS integration is the grand daddy of the TOT which TSA has pointed to as 5 years out. The TOT is the be all / end all of screening modalities that do it all with a zero human error rate. ( operator error is human error).
Put it this way, if you are an EDS maker, what do you have that makes you different than your AIT competitors? If you say NOTHING or "our algorithm", you can leap into the tar pit of Dead companies.
ISC-RIGHT TECH-RIGHT NOW !
Pat-- the company has spoken to this: all solutions are being discussed.
BUT the company has also mentioned that 5-6 EDS makers have visited and or been in touch with ISC potentially in regards to its INLINE AUTOMATED ETD product and or other technologies.
WHILE this has been in play, 1StDetect and Smiths have announced a tie-up for potential ETD integration-development with a 2 year timeline. Why does this matter? Well it gives Smith's a tech. mode they are currently do not possess thus making Smith's w/1stDetect far more formidable than just 6 months ago.
While "no one knows" is the only known in all of this, there are obvious reasons why 5-6 EDS makers would take a meeting w/ ISC ( this is one great reason why YOU should be an investor in ISC- right product / right now).
I think a re-up on same terms hurts the potential value of DM's future converts and they know that, I also think it means a sell off of the stock fairly quickly/steeply IF no other guidance is given...which leads one to believe that a down to the wire negotiation is in progress...I strongly doubt it is a POOR TERMS FOR ISC negotiation, don't you...?
Strategic Alternatives, the odds (add yours):
1. Re-up with DM on same terms: 5%
2. Re-up with DM at lower interest: 15%
3. Temp. re-up with DM, while OTHER discussions continue: 15%
4. Equity buy in by EDS maker: 40%
5. Buy out: 25%
Reasoning: discussions are proceeding down to the wire...so SAME TERMS is unlikely, and LOWER interest is also.
#3 is a solution that solves artificially depressed SP issue as SP will likely move upward a bit based on this news.
If I was looking at ISC, as and EDS maker I would want the following: a real sense of what the market wants to buy from EDS makers, a position that pays out DM perhaps leaving them with a small convertible that gives them under 20M shares and of course first rights to integrate ISC technology ( inline ETD) in my EDS systems at a special price.
Buy out is less likely because some of the future market opportunities are somewhat un-known...this factor is the "brake" on the entire discussion/negotiation...So the EDS maker buy in or buy out partner looks for insurance of sorts-- like a lower price or a partial involvement and of course getting the dangerous convertible loan shark out of the pool.
While many here think ISC "can't shoot straight" and they are right, they are also wrong in overlooking the IP stash, the potential NOL,the evolved product offerings and the current IDIQ+ EURO opportunity.
Europe is really a mess and will continue to be a mess...if they don't increase their secure and snoop tempo by 10Xs their current pace, really tragic events will unfold. The crazies are using Africa as a plane-bomb testing for their newest methods and substances. I can't say for sure but it looks like they have a clean room somewhere-- that could be catastrophic for the free world.
Buffalo- a buy out on a stock for stock basis would allow a fairer price for ISC and a de-risking for the buyer. I would be totally in favor of that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TED- broadly speaking, everyone on the company side, meaning owners and debt holders, wants the SP at real valuation as opposed to artificially deflated due to ongoing 8 cent converts.
You used to claim that "why would DM sell their 8 cent converts for 60 cents, they want the most for those converts." The company stupidly let them dilute at will all the way down to 25 cents and both DM and the company turned a blind eye to awful SP decay.
Now we are in a hole of their doing. I fully expect them to work UPWARD on any discussion about a BUY IN or BUY OUT and I think they are doing that.
ISC can't stop DM from doing whatever it wants to do but in my view DM has to stop dumping and be part of the solution IF there is a real interested BUY IN or BUY OUT close to a signature. As Sgt. Schultz would say: I know nothing.
TED- more angles here than the average pool table. I think a lot DM's actions depend on BUY OUT or BUY IN.
Which ever it is, they have to be smart and part of the discussion. I doubt anyone would have any discussion if they were NOT in the loop or the room.
One thing is apparent, a re-up on same terms without ongoing strategic discussions / negotiations would take us down to "sea level"...part of me thinks they don't care and part of me thinks they want to avoid that. So really, how does DM leave this company with the most cash? That of course collides with a "buyer on the cheap".
Many angles. Not many days.
AHOOT- I think we can guess what DM wants;
- as much as possible without killing the goose
Problem: How to squeeze the goose without breaking it?
They have to be part of discussion or their actions can become most unhelpful...so say they are, say they are transferring the cheapest shares in volume that a new buyer will ever get for as long as they can. Then, the buyer or partner moves and sort of pre-cost averages...if this is true, it could mean a much higher share price.
A re-up with DM on the same terms means the floor drops out ( like it already has). One might think, a big buyer would enjoy that...but that has consequences.
It smells ODD and has been going on for a while now.
Its like a GTC order for 900K...it never ends and when it does, a new one pops up.
A few days back, 400K traded in one day, about 2-3 times the daily average. All without a sound...nor an obvious reason.
KI- there could be a situation where party A agrees to party B's qtr worth of dumping for the benefit of party C...somebody is capturing nice sized bites. Today could be telling it the tempo picks up and the bites grow...
IMO- those lot sizes are NOT retail.
AHOOT- it helps give Daesh something to consider. They read everything. Glad TSA did NOT go to ISC- that would have been a huge mistake.
We know what is going into the inline and the "E", they shouldn't know ever as they adopt quickly when they are found out.
IMO, the problem with Daesh in Raqqua/Syria- they have the money and the cover to build a clean room. THAT is a huge consideration that needs to be addressed. But they still have to move what they make.
I think their trial runs ( somalia-egypt) should have everyone concerned...they passed thru a rudimentary security system either by disguise or bribe or both.
This should be a huge alarm for second tier EURO airports,IMO.
FANT- no offense but I take Liscouski's word over yours. You should too. Re-up would have been done by now, could have been done by now and usually HAS been done much before similar deadlines.
The question is will ISC be successful on their terms?
I don't see the company rolling over and doing a weak deal...faced with that prospect, they would have simply re-upped by now. We have Liscouski's word that discussions continue.
I believe DM wants a deal to get done too...and they are the backstop to ISC's position. Their role could be very helpful and very profitable for them. And I do not doubt that the company has integrated their positive role into the negotiations. Nothing moves if they are not in the loop and not going to profit greatly.
When you think about DM's risk/reward-- they took a big one and they are due a big one. So being helpful right now= being more profitable this April or June or sometime in 2016.
TED- DM hardball is simply MORE OF SAME. I think everyone, DM included would like to see a BETTER solution.
Since we are approaching the DUE date and have heard QUIET PERIOD/BLACKOUT continues, the only deduction we can make: its a complicated negotiation with at least 4 parties. And maybe one party playing the deadline edge while the company wants that party and everybody else to know DM wants ISC to continue to dull that edge.
And if a deal cannot be made by deadline, but everyone is still hot for a deal, then a PR extending deadline for another 60-90-120 days is appropriate.
Note to Buffalo- feel the same- it is time on every aspect. The RIGHT NOW in question is ideal for all parties. But again, the circuit of review/amend-re-review/approve is complicated-lengthy.
One crazy aspect is the appearance of large blocks for sale. And the speed at which they are absorbed. Plenty of angles but QUIET CONTINUES!
FANT- they told us they were speaking with DM a while back. Along with other Strat. alternatives. They could easily have re-up'd by now so to say that ;NO OTHER STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVE IS IN PROGRESS IS FALSE. LISCOUSKI SAID IT WAS. THE COMPANY SAID THAT 5-6 EDS CO. HAD VISITED.
Do not doubt, something is in progress...what the outcome is shall be determined.
During these negotiations, DM is ISC's lever, as in, fine we have a way to continue via DM's financing and RCA's pay day loans to minimize DM's financing impact.
The company wants its products to find the frontline. Do NOT doubt their resolve in finding an EDS maker in need of an automated ETD solution and or ETD products to add to their screening suite of products.
If I knew the ending, I would have bought a few million shares, since I don't my buys are small but steady. I believe it is time.
KI- only one way that many shares show up instantly- DM DUMP INC.
Oddly or Nicely, they were scooped up almost like it was pre-arranged.
OR, DM fears a re-up with ISC will trigger a landslide of selling, which I believe would happen IF no other details regarding Strategic Alternatives was included in the Re-Up PR.
The company has guided our expectations to this point and rightly so as 2015 was not just a sell-produce product year--as they have said in 2015, R&D is our focus NOT refi or cap structure.
What does that R&D yield?
1. a hand held non-contact ETD unit that also can work with a swab add on
2. inline ETD unit that can back end an AIT unit and thus deliver what TSA wants right now in its EDS.
Both of these R&D developments make ISC a ripe apple for picking but if NOT an outright acquisition target, then an equity partner would be ideal as it gives that partner first seat at the integration "table".
Could the worst, as defined as a RE-UP w/DM on same terms, still happen?
It could, but re-ups on same terms could have been achieved two months ago, this points us back to BUY OUT or EQUITY PARTNER as likely outcomes as ISC is a prime acquisition target and or a timely partner for a large EDS maker with NO ETD non-contact capability in its quiver.
KI- yep, there are shares showing up like crazy. I doubt very strongly that shorts are dumping but the never-ending short- DM, could be transferring shares to a potential new owner and not know that.
OR DM could be transferring shares into the "inside" demand ( it always leaks).
A bump in the volume during a quiet period always speaks very loudly that SOMETHING is happening.
I wouldn't mind hearing that ISC-DM re-uped for 2-3 months and that strategic alternatives continue.
DO NOT GIVE THIS AWAY. DO NOT. DO NOT. DO NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Current terror-scape already baked in, which is EXACTLY why a deal may be taking place or maybe coming back from the lawyers.
Every peaceful gov. wants an automatic solution to screening. The TOT is the end goal, the component where ISC contributes ( non-contact, super high resolution)is unique to ISC. A deal will get done. ISC will be re-born and will contribute greatly.
Until all of islam becomes a religion of peace, terror will continue to expand-contract but will be omni-present. Remember, we are on the 7 or 8th Calif with 3 or 4 to go. They all begin to understand this as they talk outside on a moonlit night...
A-Hoot--contemplating follow on's to a non-contact INLINE ETD component within an EDS are part of this discussion also.
So the question is, what makes the system buyer happy today and how is that a forerunner to tomorrow ( tunnel of truth concept system)?
Automation. Multi-disciplined modes of detection. Highest resolution. Highest Thru-put. Human error minimized. Price is a concern but IMO, not the real driver of happiness for the buyer in the USA.
You point to a systemic screening weakness that must be addressed, thus the requirement for automation goes us, as does highest thru put.
IMO, ISC is a jewel in search of a crown. If it takes a 3 month, sort of short term re-up with DM to get a better deal done, then that is route to go as it will improve the SP if DM lets the SP float appropriately.
Ted- fair questions/concerns.
What's the value locked up inside ISC...?
PLENTY-to an EDS maker, who pays keen attention to TSA's desires for an automated inline ETD solution to backend it's AIT component.
Low hanging fruit, right now, for an ETD INLINE, world-wide is 400M -600M within 1.5 years of a buyout. What would you pay for that bolt on component?
If I also included an active-filling 168M IDIQ with TSA for Desktop ETDs, what would you pay for that stand alone product? Plus ECAC opps that have to fill within a year!
These are real opportunities right now, around the world. But the bigger picture is what does your product/solutions offerings become once you can offer a real world class, category leading, bolted on ETD component...would your sales team close more product suite sales...?
Note, all investors usually over-value their investments and under-estimate the problems involved in finding a buyer for their company. But the category is speaking loudly via the 1StDetect/Smith's tie up---they intend to present a real ETD solution. Competitors are now more "tuned" into what they have to do.
McGann has a huge amount of category credibility...this is a factor in all of this.
KI- totally agree w. your message. How they ever let THAT post pig slop posing as pink sheet wisdom is a laughing stock of any message board, let alone one that is populated with investors keenly aware of where we have been and more aware of where we are about to go. ITS CLOSE. IMO.
TED- problems vs opportunities.
A year ago I told Buffalo-- its NOT time for a buy out. the tech needs to be fully born, not simply pregnant. It is alive today, as I typed this.
While you may not understand the cycles in security product sales, many others who live on top of those cycles DO understand them quite well.
And while you may not fathom the depth and value stored in ISC's IP vault, many others do understand that value place against a buying season.
We are IN that season and the value for non-contact ETD has never been greater nor in as much demand as it is right now- TODAY!
But then again, you never bought into the premise that DM would sell one of their 8 cent shares for 45 cents. No Easter Egg for you!
Good point Buffalo--I stand corrected and sort of befuddled ( the state over from New Mexico, which ever way you roll).
ISC is making money on the B-220. Not enough. But a shrewd partner solves that lickety-split. HAND-HELD/INLINE at LUMPY TIME!
TED- you try to operate a SECURITY PREVENTION OPERATION under the microscope of idiots in Congress, threat-scape evolving/changing against the whims of the US traveling public-- it ain't like patching a hole in a highway--and THAT isn't getting done either.
LUMPY- yes, and NOW is BIG LUMP TIME ( see threat-scape), a selling time that we don't want to miss.
NEXT LUMPS- sooner than later...TSA has about 400M to 600M to award to next gen. baggage screening that integrates ETD with EDS. THIS IS THE SINGLE BEST TIME FOR ISC TO BE SELLING-DEVELOPING AND LOOKING FOR PARTNERS.
Consider the first flight of .78 cent buy options are in mgt.'s hands, strong motivation to do what is necessary to turn the dilution tide thru either a favorable buy out or a strong first-purchase EDS partner.
We all look for easter eggs...become disenchanted...frustrated...and then we forget what an easter egg looks like--EVEN-- while sitting on the biggest Easter Egg of all...smarten up TED, you deserve a break yesterday, like all shareholders, but that doesn't mean you get one. In this case, there is ONE. NOW IS GO TIME!
SHI- plenty of cross currents pushing - pulling on/at ISC right this second.
And I will guess a "last stand" dump or two, spilled into the hands of the "faithful" or "the peanut gallery".
1ST Detect/Smiths tie up is part catalyst/part warning to a buy-out event.
We also have a potential TSA shipment to digest and a likely freeze on PRs / except for material events during the "talks". I know its hard to imagine a nano-cap dragging around 30M convertible shares plus 60-75M in debt as having "leverage" but ISC has some if that INLINE is ACES. Is it? Today it is. Two years from today it is. Three years from today it may not be.
As I said, I am a buyer here not a seller and will stay on the buy side till this gushes or crushes the "peonic" faithful. MCG knows what he owns and he knows the near term future of the market size for ISC's tech. Can he make a deal that wins for everybody? I think he can.
Buffalo-- that scenario is more realistic than you think...because the SP is in a total rut, it has to be within reach of the deal points (40-120% of deal point) BEFORE the deal can be announced.
A certain whack job on here has tried to scare shareholders with the threat of BK-- sad tactic by a sadder person. Common stays WHOLE to protect the NOL. That little rhyme is sort of a back end mantra for this stock but really, I don't believe that BK exists in any scenario but a disaster.
Back to Buffalo--so yes, deal pending sends SP up to deal plateau where it launches upward/ happens from there. Its obvious that ISC cannot work out of the rut, develop product and pay out debt at the same time. Thanks to 1ST D and Smiths tie up, we know the size of a head start ISC and its future owner have.
Lets get this deal done, let the loyal faithful enjoy our rewards and lets get the ISC INLINE into the market faster and further than anyone imagined.
Also pending, the next follow on of TSA's order. And remember, the first TSA shipment is likely to be the smallest as TSA was running the B-220 up the flag pole ( again) and now we know-- it works very well.
1ST DET and Smiths partner up...which I view as a typical TSA event-- develop at least two competing options for any desired solution/product/layer.
BIG DEAL? Nope.
By the time they reach market, the market they intend to address will have purchased and next evolutions from "those" that captured that market when it was wide open will have Stage 2 ready and in place.
This is a message for CLAMS...Smiths has shown that it does NOT want to share tech. developments with other EDS makers. This should be a clue for YOU. However, if you cannot make the number, then a re-UP with DM with language from DM that points to a near term product breakthrough, and it would be exactly that, will sober up/ liquor up all potential parties. Surely, you can work out a short term exclusive for the equity buying EDS maker? SURELY!
Sometimes the round peg fits the square hole when it gets whittled down to size.
BC- there is a time to sell and right after THAT time, comes the time to watch. This niche cycles on- off and right now it is ON. Three years from NOW, it could be OFF for 5 years.
So mgt. knows this, the technology they own has a place in this market right now. They can really work wonders in the right hands. So let the deal happen, everybody wants it to happen, just a question of "what price".
SHI- the tech was done, for all intents/purposes while GB was running things. So the little greed monster got rid of GB.
Agree that current mgt. should not be given a lemonade stand to run...BUT...we have zero choice. What we do have going for us are: BMG options at .78 and TSA wants an inline ETD "unit" backing the AIT within a smooth automated EDS system.
NOBODY ELSE HAS AN INLINE ETD THAT CAN DELIVER WHAT ISC CAN.
So I guess what we have in front of us is a MGT. TEST. Can this mgt. turn incredible tech., in demand tech., without competition in sight, into a winning deal for the company. I define winning deal as a buy out for at least 280M$ or a buy in for at least 60M$ in shares at FAIR VALUE, not 78 cents.
A re-up with DM is OK as long as it is predicated on getting a deal done shortly thereafter. Anything else and the SP goes to 7 cents.
$1.25 is just a way-point on the way to fully realized value.
Beaten/downtrodden investors are so odd: they believe at first, then the SP tanks ( for other reasons than why they invested) so they don'e believe when just the opposite is true: THIS TECH WORKS. IT'S THE MGT. PULLING THE LEVERS ON THE SP THAT HAS NOT WORKED.
GB: we need gov. approvals for swab product: DONE
GB: we need sales around the world to grow quickly: DONE
GB: we need follow on products that the market demands: IN PROGRESS
So the bet, does ISC follow up on the success of the B-220 with a better non-contact product than their current non-contact product ( QS-150)?
You have to have a modicum of trust for the science brain-power behind ISC at this point in time. They are NOT bluffing, they have a product evolution that works and one that the TSA wants. And SURE, they could fumble on the goal line or call a pass when they should have just run it in, but they won't as long as they are alive and DM almost guarantees that. Be Happy, the "Enterprise" is about to make the turn.
SHI- sure could and for good reason-- to give ISC back some leverage. Re-up w/DM extends out two things: product development of inline ( this is the value driver) and the negotiations over value. Actually,in this scenario, re-up would be a value driver for DM and ISC.
It could happen and it could be a good thing. Matter of fact, MGT. knows this and can easily play it this way for a while. I think the one oinment-fly is the delay in processing TSA's first development payment for the inline CRADA.
Re-up is really nothing if it gives the company some time to capture full value.
But then again, a partner could cut the knot and place themselves at the very front by buying in, gaining first use, paying OUT DM and capturing the advanced tech. that lies within this little gem.
OR the really smart player knows that the low hanging fruit ( TSA's expressed desire to put ETD inline w/EDS) is there for the taking ( come on, they visited, they saw, they know the specs., hell they may have brought a test package?!?!?!?!?!) Mgt. has to be smart enough to know that everybody has to be happy--not just a few parties. Doing a dour-deal is problematic for everyone else. Its about to get real interesting...you could see the SP sink to 18 cents ( re-up w/DM drives it instantly down) or soar to 1.25 cents on a sale of shares to a partner).
Here is the comforting part: BMG is not a bluffer. He is scientist that likely talked peer to peer in any product test, presentation or review. ISC has the real goods that are proven/purchased/performing products. Hard to line up the SP next to the PRODUCTS and guess they are attached to the same company, IMO.
WINT- MCG and DR.J have large option events coming their way and they are driving the deal. My guess: they have a buy out offer and they have a partner offer.
Their motivations are driving how this deal shapes up and happens OR drops backward to a re-up with DM. I certainly hope NO re-up, they make the deal at $2/share,min.,plus debt.
Or they smartly do this: offer a partner a mound of shares, pay DM out, then based on achieving certain milestones, that partner has the right to buy the rest of the company--but that last part is kind of tricky so the deal is taking more time than it should for 99% willing and compatible partners.
I think ISC has some product leverage and some big baggage (DM) but they also are working this deal at a very favorable time across the globe. They have to make it now or potentially be victimized by emerging future technology...as Rumsfeld would sort of say: we don't know the unknowns but we know they exist.
I have been a buyer from 32 to 29...could be a banana upside the head or a smart move, don't know anymore than the ave. ISC owner.
Plenty of clues distributed in the recent CC and shortly thereafter. The DOTS are there for the taking, or not. I certainly don't blame any owner for NOT buying nor do I congratulate any buyer for seeing opportunity. This mgt. team has to close the deal and Dr. J. is the only one I trust to have the skills ( and motivation) to do just that. BMG and BL- meh.
TED- totally agree that TSA has been unreliable w/ "their" timelines. But what you are missing is this: the missed timeline spend outs have piled up a small mound of money to be spent. Why hasn't it been spent? The product has NOT arrived in the market to make TSA spend. Will they spend? Gee, I think they might--hell yes they will spend.
What does TSA really want? They have told the market over and over again- fool proof automated screening that is also future proofed, to a certain extent.
Does the inline ETD unit deliver this? We owners cannot fully say. BUT mgt. seems to think that the ISC INLINE merits a look by some 5 to 6 EDS makers.
Who else makes an inline ( re-automated, conveyor enabled, high resolution ETD unit that features a non-contact method to gather a sample from perhaps 4 to 6 inches from a variety of surfaces)? I don't know of any that reliably do this and can meet TSA specs. for non-contact. ISC has achieved many things recently but NONE more telling than their insights into TSA specs for a variety of modes of screening for trace&vapor.
Summarizing- TED your very questions are your answers in this case, IMO. Again, I don't know anything, just guessing outloud instead to taking my daily ISC ROLAID. ( humor).
Also, always always always rely on a huge option opportunity to drive mgt.'s interests in a deal that is gathering speed. We will know all by St.Pats!IMO. Again a total guess.