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TOMZD Mine still look like they are untradeable at TdAm. Hopefully that uplisting to nasdaq happens soon.
MDC This homebuilder is up 6% on news that new home orders for July and August are up an amazing 75% yoy. No wonder lumber prices have been so strong.
LEN came out with earnings and a nice beat: Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.12 beats by $0.56. Revenue of $5.87B (+0.2% Y/Y) beats by $340M. They also increased guidance. Buy the rumor, sell the news though as this one is down about 2% now.
Lennar also has an interesting price anomaly on its two classes of stock. LEN and LEN.B. Both are exactly the same except that LEN.B has 10X the voting rights of LEN. One would think, if anything, LEN.B might trade at a slight premium. But no, it trades at a 20% discount to LEN. A couple activist groups who hold LEN.B are after Lennar to convert all B shares into A shares, so that could be a possible trade although Lennar has resisted doing this in the past. The CEO owns most of the LEN.B shares so he would ironically benefit the most if they did consolidate them.
Good article about the rapid increase in lumber prices. Now, the huge wildfires on the west coast are also crimping the supply too. Lumber price increases have already raised the cost of a house over $16,000. This may be why home builders are mostly flat today. LEN, an industry leader, announces earnings today and I suspect they will be a big beat. That could trigger rally mode for the group again tomorrow.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumber-staggering-rally-homes-selling-110023301.html
AMRK went to place a limit order with TdAm and was told I have to call it in with a broker. Weird for a nasdaq stock.
TOMZ Ha, good for you. The only thing I have been eating with this one is crow for dinner. Down to an annualized PE of 7 with a rapidly growing business....doesn't matter although it was about
the only stock I own that was up today.
Other than TOMZ, it looks like airlines and cruise ships were about the only winners today. Traders are a strange bunch.
HIBB Building nicely on its recent gains. Their guidance sure doesn't seem to bother investors. I've never been in a HIBB store, but aren't they more about clothing and apparel, where BGFV is also big in sports gear and supplies
Ha, in other words, Don't Fight The Fed.
BGFV I wonder how many of those short sales are from people who have multiple brokerage accounts with different firms. Many BGFV investors are generally sitting on huge gains and may want to lock them in, but not take all that gain now. Short it in another account at another brokerage and they lock in their gains while they wait for their long position to get to long term with a lower tax rate.
I know it's illegal to do this (wash sale) but I don't know that tax software would catch it nor would the IRS 99% of the time. No, I would not recommend trying this tax evasion strategy either.
TOL This high end home builder reported a big beat in earnings and revs along with a surge in new orders. Was up nicely premarket but is now down in early trading. Looks like another buy the rumor and sell the news.
Toll Brothers beat expectations in its fiscal third quarter. Shares of the homebuilder were rising in after-market trading.
The company reported July quarter earnings of 90 cents a share. Wall Street's consensus estimate called for only 69 cents a share, according to FactSet. Sales of $1.65 billion beat expectations of $1.5 billion. Total home sales of 2,022 units beat estimates that called for 1,853, while orders of 2,833 topped expectations for 2,082.
CEO Douglas Yearley pointed to a surge in demand, driven by historically low interest rates, a continued undersupply of homes, and consumers focusing on the importance of a home "more than ever."
That lumber run up in prices is amazing. I did pick up some RFP on the sell off last Friday. So far, it is looking good.
Toll Brothers TOL announces earnings after the close tomorrow. CC is Wednesday. No doubt there will be some discussion on how lumber prices affect that home builder.
Wade, Maryland has been and is expected to be a relatively weak real estate market. Maybe that has shaded your real estate agent's opinion?
Maryland home values have gone up 1.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -2.1% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Maryland is $186. The median price of homes currently listed in Maryland is $319,900 while the median price of homes that sold is $283,000.
SNFCA Wade is your real estate friend that called the earnings report a one quarter wonder, a realtor in New York City or near there? Just wondering because people are leaving big cities like New York in droves now. NYC rents are already down 10% with large vacancies.
I think the move to the suburbs will last for a long time. And also only a relatively small fraction of people have refinanced their mortgages at these record low rates.
I'm not saying that I think SNFCA will keep growing earnings but I expect them to remain strong for a minimum of one year.
FWIW, I've been involved in the real estate industry over 40 years too.
Homebuilder confidence index came out this morning tying the record high in 1998. Those lumber mills need to ramp up production!
Washington, DC, August 17, 2020-In a sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased six points to 78 in August, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI now stands at its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series, matching the record that was set in December 1998.
“The demand for new single-family homes continues to be strong, as low interest rates and a focus on the importance of housing has stoked buyer traffic to all-time highs as measured on the HMI,” said NAHB chairman Chuck Fowke. “However, the V-shaped recovery for housing has produced a staggering increase for lumber prices, which have more than doubled since mid-April. Such cost increases could dampen momentum in the housing market this fall, despite historically low interest rates.”
SNFCA PR out and still no pop. I guess traders are not interested in boring things like mortgage companies even with blow out earnings. They'd rather chase money losing sexy stocks. Oh well, I'll be patient with this one.
SNFCA I don't see any earnings estimates for them but it sure is hard to believe that investors are not impressed with those earnings. I've been buying ahead of the PR.
nelson, I realized that lumber chart was out of date right after I posted and edited it with a link to a current chart.
sorry for the confusion.
Lumber prices don't seem to bother the homebuilder stocks, at least not yet anyway. There are all way up from their lows and strong again today too. I also suspect there must be labor shortages out there with this building boom too. I'll watch them but so far their trend is still my friend.
Lumber prices are rising with the current building boom but they are well below record highs, In fact they are still under their average price for the last 3 years. Here's a chart:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price
Edit: Sorry I just realized that chart I linked to hasn't been updated since late May for some reason. You'right, prices have doubled since then and appear to be at or near a record high. Here's a current chart:
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs
He wants to keep the price over $1 or he can say bye bye to his nasdaq listing. Some, like Wade, did expect the stock to do much better than the 2.5c reported.
TOMZ Those fleas are biting. Already down 20% on that new position I've only held for 2 hours. Company doesn't give guidance but they see continued strong growth in the 2nd half. Also, they said more positive PRs are coming. Doubled down at 1.02 but may need to run to Petco for a flea collar!
TOMZ I see in the CC that th company plans to go on the nasdaq next month.
They are also doubling the size of their Frederick facility to meet demand.
I just opened a first time position as the big drop yesterday seems overdone.
TOMZ earnings were 3c basic and 2c fully diluted. They round numbers to the nearest penny. Rounding can make a big difference when the company only earns 2c. I calculated that the fully diluted eps was actually 2.46c.
DIIBF Maybe that was a bad print as the stock is nicely up today.
NMM I opened a small position in this one too. I was happy to see that they are not issuing K-1s to US investors which adds a hassle at tax time.
2019 Unit Distributions U.S. Tax Treatment
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. has elected to be treated as a 'C' Corporation for U.S. tax purposes (our investors receive a Form 1099-DIV and not a Schedule K-1).
BGFV Bought back more shares I sold at about 8. Looks to me like there is strong technical support just above $6 from a trendline going back to early July. I'm not really a chartist but there seems to be lots of people trading this off that.
HBP I agree but right now they are probably more concerned with the size of their golden parachutes.
DIIBF came out with blowout numbers, earning 48c and beating the analyst estimate est of -20c. Revs also beat by a wide margin. The stock opened strong but has since sold off. I added some shares on the sell-off.
DOREL REPORTS STRONG SECOND QUARTER
? Dorel Sports posts record operating profit
? Dorel Home records best ever quarter for revenue
? Dorel Juvenile segment sales and earnings affected by protracted
store closures in many markets
? Significant inventory and debt reductions
BGFV I bought back shares I sold a few days ago in the lower6.80s. I think the news that Russia has developed a covid vaccine is responsible for much of the sell off today. If there really is a viable vaccine (very debatable as Russia has not done adequate testing that I can see) people will no longer need to socially distance and buy so many sporting goods.
BGFV I second that, or maybe fifth that by now, lol. Well written and to the point. Makes me want to buy more tomorrow. Thanks, Gilead.
HBP I'm not listening because I don't own it but the Conf call should be going on right now.
HBP I didn't see anything in that PR about how new orders have grown since the end of the quarter. They should be. Maybe that is why they are down AH?
Maybe their CC will shed some light on it.
Merrill Edge, I know what you mean about that delay with some trades that require the confirmation code. I only got a part fill in BGFV at 5.21 yesterday because of it. I was surprised it is even required with BGFV.
It used to be that the big advantage with Merrill Edge was the commission free trades, Now others like TdAm offer that now too.
BGFV Looking at what it did after pre-announcing those blow out Q2 earnings, it bottomed at 27% below its high on the day of the announcement and that happened 3 days after. We are now 2 days after and a 27% drop will take it to a low of 5.07. (I'm ignoring AH trading in both cases.)
Of course, history rarely exactly repeats itself so I think we are close to a bottom here. I added here at 5.34
KODK 44 million shares outstanding and 154 million already traded today. AMAZING!
KODK CEO was just on FBN. I wasn't very impressed. He understandably had no comment on the stock price action. He said that they hope to provide 25% of certain drugs that come from China but didn't seem to know how big that market is.
SPWH stores have a completely different feel than BGFV. BGFV stores are small and cheap compared to SPWH. Although it makes sense on paper, I don't see a buyout potential there.
MHO NWHM
MHO had all kinds of great news in that earnings report. Besides that huge beat in earnings and revs, new contracts soared by 30% .their debt ratio dropped substantially and they have no borrowings against their $500 million revolver. Pretty amazing considering all the homes they have under construction now. Book value was up 21% yoy to $38.34, which is only a little below the current SP. This one remains cheap here, IMO.
I see NWHM reports tomorrow morning. Technically, this one is the cheapest builder out there at only .38X BV. Their problem is that they seem to consistently disappoint on earnings. They have taken steps to alleviate the situation by moving into lower price areas where they are building and expanding into AZ. It looks like the analysts gave up on them as I don't see any estimates out there. I took a gamble and did open a small position this morning to hold into earnings.
BGFV Looks like 30c is what they earned in Q3 last year.
CCS out with record numbers after the close. Earned 1.21 while analyst estimates were only 69c. New orders were way up too. Hopefully, MHO will be a repeat tomorrow as I added on the late sell off today.
And... woohoo on BGFV!
CCS Second Quarter 2020 Highlights Compared to Second Quarter 2019
Adjusted net income increased 71% to a record $40.3 million or $1.21 per diluted share and net income increased 148% to a record $38.5 million or $1.15 per diluted share Home sales revenues increased 23% to a record $747.4 million Home deliveries grew to a Company record 2,480 homes or 26% Net new home contracts increased 22% to a Company record 2,664 homes Homes in backlog improved to 2,778 homes with a value of $962.8 million, a 23% increase Adjusted EBITDA increased 50% to a record $74.0 million Quarter end total liquidity of $860 million, including cash of $220 million Net homebuilding debt to net capital improved to 37.5%
DIIBF Opened positions here on the sell off today. I keep hearing that bicycles are selling like hotcakes as people look to find ways to get fresh air and good exercise while maintaining social distancing. And/or they want to avoid public transportation as much as possible.
DIIBF is a large manufacturer/distributor of bikes including Schwinn, BMX, electric bikes and many others. While At $5.40 today, has had a nice run-up from its lows, it is still way below its $25 SP of 3 years ago. In fact, it reminds me of BGFV, trading at only 40% of book value and .07x sales.
Only 1 analyst follows it that I can see and he estimates the company willl lose 20c in Q2. I expect a strong beat when they report on 8/11.
The company has 3 divisions: The sports division makes the bikes. They also have a home furniture division which should also be doing well as 70% of their sales are online and include home office furniture (check out how well Wayfair is doing). The 3rd division is the junior division and the weakest link. They do lots of kids car seats which really went down last Q under stay at home orders but should be nicely recovering nicely now. It trades OTC in the USA as it is a Canadian company on the Toronto exchange.