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Linton at the Greenrush Conference.
For those who haven't seen it.. He comes on at 3:47:25 Wasn't able to say much, but still interesting. Good speaker.
Not sure. It is either from someones visual estimate based on video and/or pictures or from some older articles that were written before Tweed realized the demand was so much greater than they expected.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/140216/growing-medical-marijuana-big-business-canada
Even if it was only 50 kilograms, they sold out in what, 24 hours?
At an average price of $8.80 a gram that is $440,000 revenue in 24 hours. That is pretty amazing considering the number of patients is small and growing extremely fast.
Once production levels are up and harvest times are in sync with demand... the potential is amazing.
Even selling half of what they did in that time frame averaged out over a year would be over $80M. They will have no problem selling out their current license limits in the second year. In fact, they will probably have their production capacity increased when they get their renewal.
All this shows is that Tweed underestimated the demand (which is a lot better than overestimating.) They will obviously expand and grow to meet demand, as we know the first phase of construction is scheduled to be complete by August.
I'm not sure if the rep you spoke with fully understands what he is taking about. There is no prescription under the MMPR for medical marijuana and I highly doubt there would be a DIN number on the package you get from the Licensed Producer. If it was a prescription, it would have a DIN number and I could see it being covered.
However, you can write it off as a medical expense on your personal taxes.
Yes, That is a common misconception about the new MMPR. That is maximum possession limits. For example, you could have a daily "prescribed" amount of 10 grams per day, but you can only possess 30 x your daily limit. This means that someone who is "prescribed" a daily limit of 10 grams per day can order 150 grams twice per month.
From HC FAQ:
"While there are no restrictions under the new Marihuana for Medical Purposes Regulations on the daily amount that you may recommend, there is a possession cap of the lesser of 150 grams or 30 times the daily amount."
Woohoo! Bought deal is a done deal!
This was the most interesting paragraph I had read in the finalized short form prospectus.
Would be interested to hear what some of you think about this possibility.
“In addition, from time to time, the Corporation may have opportunity to evaluate various potential acquisition or partnership opportunities, some of which could, if consummated, have a material impact on the Corporation. For example, the opportunity may arise for the Corporation to acquire or combine with one or more other Licensed Producers. There can be no assurance that the Corporation will be able to identify acquisition or partnership opportunities that meet its strategic objectives, or to the extent such opportunities are identified, that it will be able to negotiate terms that are acceptable to it. No commitments have been made with respect to any transactions. However, the Corporation cannot preclude the possibility that agreement on one or more transactions will be reached in the weeks or months following the Closing Date. If such an opportunity or opportunities are identified, a portion of the net proceeds of the Offering received by the Corporation may be re-allocated to effect such a transaction. See the discussion of risk factors under the heading “Risk Factors” below and under the heading “Risk Factors” in the Filing Statement, which is incorporated by reference in this Short Form Prospectus.”
Congrats to the Longs! Have a green day. I'll be traveling most of the day and will look forward to seeing a green close when I get home tonight. This is just the beginning of a steady growth period!
No. I have to leave for the day in a couple minutes so don't have the time to explain the grey market.
Check this link and do some other searches to understand the grey market. It's not a scam, although I am Canadian and am personally long TWD on the TSX not the Grey Market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greymarket.asp
You are looking at the grey market. Look at Tweed on the TSXV. It has traded roughly 210k shares this morning not including the grey market.
That is roughly $675k traded compared to FIT* which has traded roughly 8.5M shares at a price of 0.0815 is roughly $692k.
So they have pretty much the same volume in dollars.
L.A. Confidential or "Buddy" is already sold out lol.
Demand must be intense.
Agreed. Plus that was not an article. That was the first post I've written in my blog lol. And yes, I truly believe I will eventually see that pps of above $17. I project we will see that price once Tweed reaches full capacity of their license if market doesn't bring it their first. It will be a bit of a journey, but within 2 years maximum I can easily see us hitting that.
Of course, I am not a financial adviser nor do I have any "formal" education in finances.
Congratulations longs!!!
This is technically a historical day. Today we are all holding shares in the only company in the history of North America to be publicly traded while selling medical marijuana, as well as being federally licensed to do so.
This is the first day in the beginning of a major growth period for Tweed.
More food for thought:
Colorado dispensaries are thriving with an average price of a whopping USD$18.57 per gram after tax.
That is equivalent to roughly CAD$20.38 at today’s exchange rate. Tweed is expecting an average price per gram of between $8.80.
I understand that it is hard to compare Colorado with Canada (and that we have always had much lower street prices for top quality than the U.S.), but considering the small share of the market Tweed needs to meet limits on its license, 15,000 Kg’s annual production rate should be no problem, once the required stages of construction are complete.
Wow! L.A. Confidential... $5.00 per gram!!!
That will be sold out quick.
Beautiful!
Fighting fire with fire, eh. Good job. You have more patience than I do. lol.
Don't forget the interview on The Lang and O'Leary Exchange.
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV+Shows/Lang+&+O%27Leary+Exchange/ID/2440819939/
Food for thought with some back of the napkin estimates:
In 2013 there were 38,000 authorized users of medical marijuana in Canada with a combined prescribed 190,000 kg of medical marijuana per year.
Even without considering Health Canada’s conservative patient growth projections, Tweed would only need to capture 9.375% of the currently prescribed and regulated amounts to max out their licensing limits of 15,000 Kilograms. Health Canada projects there to be roughly 400,000 patients by 2024.
Although prescribed mean averages may be quite lower than what it was under the MMAR regulations, even at a conservative estimate of just 15% of today’s average prescribed amount (1.5g = 15% of current prescribed overall average of 10 grams per day), that would put the projected annual regulated amount at 600,000 grams per day, or 219,000 Kilograms annually by 2024. This would mean that even with these extremely conservative estimates and projections, Tweed would only need to capture 9.375% of today's prescribed amounts and maintain a market share consisting of 6.84% over the next 10 years, in order to reach and maintain their current license limits of 15,000 Kilograms per year.
Food for thought on the advantages of being a public company and being able to provide public updates (essentially a form of advertising) to consumers and share holders.
The Narcotic Control Regulations contain an absolute prohibition on advertising to the “general public” regarding narcotics (which includes marijuana). This would seem to conflict with the fact that licensed producers are permitted to have websites (since most would consider a website to be an advertisement to the general public). Thus far, however, Health Canada has not offered any specific guidance on what (if any) advertising to the general public will be permitted, beyond having a website. How will licensed producers be permitted to drive traffic to their websites? Can they purchase Google AdWords? Can they host discussion forums? Can they advertise their ‘brand’ without reference to any indications or the efficacy of their product? To what extent and in what manner can licensed producers market directly to prescribing physicians? Undoubtedly, some licensed producers will attempt to push the envelope with creative advertising and promotion. But remember that Health Canada has the ultimate enforcement tool to address those who cross the line...revocation of their license.
You have probably consumed goods within the last 24 hours which have been subjected to an irradiation process.
" It is important to keep in mind that the food never comes in contact with the radioisotope and is never at risk of becoming radioactive."
http://people.chem.duke.edu/~jds/cruise_chem/nuclear/food.html
Absolutely. Couldn't agree more.
I see said the blind man. I had thought you were speaking only of ON. That makes sense now.
Indeed, Very good guess. I believe your numbers are within a good range for back of the napkin type estimates. Just one thing that I wondered about.
1) Why do you estimate approximately 60% of the country's theoretical prescribing physicians are in Tweed's back yard? I know that approximately 36% of all physicians and 38% of all specialists are in Ontario. Just not sure how you came to that estimate.
Other than that I think your figures are within a healthy range. Although, in my personal opinion, still quite conservative. My estimates which I believe to also be conservative, will put the number needed to hit 15,000 Kilo’s in sales at 13,968 customers. This was based on an assumed/estimated average of 3 grams per day per client. The average under the MMAR was 10 grams (We all know the patients were not all consuming that much lol.)
I also believe the growth rates forecasted by health Canada are quite conservative. People will be signing up not only for medical reasons, but also as a means of avoiding prosecution and obtaining clean, quality smoke.
Food for thought:
I have heard that approximately 10% of Canadians are regular users (Probably higher), and this is based on those that are willing to admit it. That would put the estimated amount of regular Canadian users at roughly 3.5M regular users. Therefore, it would take only 1 in every 10 users to sign up at today’s numbers to reach Health Canada’s 10 year forecasts of patients.
Good estimate TMEvans.
"Only 7 per cent of all physicians and 14 per cent of family doctors support active authorizations to possess medicinal cannabis, according to Health Canada".
touche
Good thing those guidelines and illnesses have been scrapped from the new system. Also, doc's no longer sign prescriptions, it is a medical document and they don't have to diagnose you with anything. They are now protected. Do your homework before posting misleading articles which are a year old and not even under the same regulation.
Maybe there is a glitch in my chart, but between 1:30PM and 2:30PM on the 24th, Tweed traded between $3.45 and $3.48.
With a low on the day of $3.31 and a high of $3.48
You posted that on 4/24/2014. Tweed hasn’t even touched 3.25 since 4/17/2014
And you got back in at $3.25?
Would love to know how you did this. That is an amazing strategy, buying lower than it even trades at. Please share how you did this so we can all get rich.
Here is what I found under Production practices in the MMPR:
52. (1) A licensed producer must not sell or provide dried marihuana under subsection 12(4) unless the requirements of this Division have been met.
Marginal note:Prohibition — export
(2) A licensed producer must not export dried marihuana unless the requirements of this Division have been met.
Marginal note:Microbial and chemical contaminants
53. (1) The microbial and chemical contaminants of dried marihuana must be within generally accepted tolerance limits for herbal medicines for human consumption, as established in any publication referred to in Schedule B to the Food and Drugs Act.
Marginal note:Analytical testing
(2) Analytical testing for those contaminants and for the percentages of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol and cannabidiol referred to in these Regulations must be conducted using validated methods.
Marginal note:Pest control product
54. Marihuana must not be treated — before, during or after the drying process — with a pest control product unless the product is registered for use on marihuana under the Pest Control Products Act or is otherwise authorized for use under that Act.
Unfortunately, I don't have much insight into the regulations or Tweed's policy with regards to their grow process. I don know they have a ton of dehumidifiers as well as using beneficial bugs.
Wish I could be more help. I will try to find some of the regulations and/or company policies on grow procedures.
Little tour:
I agree somewhat. Although, it is a step forward and the alternative option is much worse. Without the regulation, you are forced to buy from sources who used who knows what chemicals in the grow process.
This is the best option available including the black market or compassion clubs imo.
I found the same on that link; however,it contained a lot of information that needs to be updated. Those category 1 and 2 conditions for example were under the old MMAR program and are no longer required under the MMPR.
There are a couple clinics which are opening specifically to profit off this. Also, as it is not a "prescription" that Doctors are signing, but rather a medical document in which they are able to charge whatever fee they see fit. Doctors are not able to charge for a prescription, but they are for medical documents. I am sure this will be quite appealing to some Doctors.
Interesting to note and compare with Tweed the market cap on a cannabis company (they are different in that this co develops and commercialize cannabinoid prescription medicines) with $44.2M in revenue for its year end.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GWPH
You pretty much hit the nail on the head.
As well, most of us do not meet the requirements for private placement investments in Canada. If I recall, the minimum requirements are $1M in net assets and $200k salary if single ($300k if married) for previous 2 years and expected to continue with that salary for the next 2 years. Then you have to get invited lol.
Keeps the wealthy wealthy and puts barriers against the poor. Kind of like the pattern day trader rule in the states.
Wow! I wasn't aware IHUB is showing 169M. That is not good. I hope no one is basing any decisions off that.
Has been updated to include private placements and links to quotes and sources of info.
http://seekingalpha.com/user/3082471/instablog
I am Canadian and have a little insight into the new process of obtaining the document needed to order medication.
Under the new legislation you no longer are required to have a prescription. The term now being used is a medical document. This takes liability off of the doctors and should help them to feel more comfortable in signing the document. You simply download the form from your preferred producer's website and bring it to the doc. Also, the doctor no longer has to diagnose you with any particular ailment (that is optional on the form) or send you to a specialist as there are no particular ailments or medical requirements needed to have the form signed.
Once the document is signed they no longer have to have it approved by Health Canada. You simply courier the document to your producer. Once they receive the document signed by your doctor (as well as a medical release in which you fill out) they will contact the doctors office and confirm they signed. Once this is done you can begin ordering your medication. Essentially, by using courier, you can be signed up and placing your order within 48 hours of downloading the forms from your producers website. This makes the process much easier than the previous MMAR program
You are correct that Linton is not CEO. He is most certainly the Chairman.
That was an error from reading the incorrect headline on an interview where Mr. Linton states that they could see as high as 80% margins when operating at 100% efficiency.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1fcku6_interview-with-tweed-ceo-bruce-linton-march-7-2014_news
A basic overview of Tweed and Some very basic truths and facts:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/3082471-omen/2830163-the-green-rush-tweed
I think you hit it on the head. This is getting quite dry with all the longs and such a little float. Tomorrow should be huge, if not Monday at the very latest.