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True to form, I've been hibernating myself lately and have had wonderful long deep winter sleeps.
The BKX bank stock index has dropped 18% since December 23 vs. 7.5% for the S&P 500 in the same time period. While all eyes seem to be fixated on Deutsche Bank’s stock, it would seem to me that we should be focused on the financial meltdown occurring behind the Fed’s “curtain” that is clearly going on in the U.S. banking system based on the sudden plunge both in the credit quality of the Fed’s balance sheet and the recent cliff-dive in bank stocks.
http://thenewsdoctors.com/did-something-blow-a-hole-in-the-feds-balance-sheet-dave-kranzler/
Good article. Jobs #'s down, now what does the fed do? 0% chance of rate increase in March?
I see that. Thx . I leave you with this today:
From time to time, I open a newspaper. Things seem to be proceeding at a dizzying rate. We are dancing not on the edge of a volcano, but on the wooden seat of a latrine, and it seems to me more than a touch rotten. Soon society will go plummeting down and drown in nineteen centuries of shit. There’ll be quite a lot of shouting. (1850)”
Gustave Flaubert
You are soooooooo right! Gold will be the buy of a lifetime. Two years ago it seemed so far away. Now like a rabid dog only a block away from the local butcher shop, I can smell the blood.
This is a great post. ! 45 years and now the countdown begins. I'll be curios to see if this totally unwinds In the midst of the actual election campaign what are the nominees actually going to say as the biggest market crash in history takes place?! And yet people will still hope! Lol
Gld- what do you think? Also, if it comes here, the helicopter drop is it inflationary?
https://www.facebook.com/RTnews/posts/10154035316514411
Up in atom takes on a new meaning with the Big Bang ! On another note:
Have you also learned that secret from the river;
I had been afraid of the awful presence of the river, which was the soul of the river, but through her [Ultima] I learned that my spirit shared in the spirit of all things.
Rudolfo Anaya, Bless Me, Ultima
Thanks. That's a precise summary of the book even w/o having leafed through it. I scanned it myself and put it back down. Instead I picked up: The Work of the Dead, a cultural history of mortal remains. By Thomas Laqueur.
Gld- so does the Yen's risk on/ off currency status change here?
Also, are you going to read Roger Lowenstein's book on the Federal Reserve? Cheers.!
Yes, many progressives were hailing him as a great man. The treaty of Versailles was a harbinger of bad things to come. I agree. Many Wall Street high ranking and powerful men were not too "enamored" with FDR and his socialist impulse. War brings with it winds of change that under normal conditions would be very difficult to implement when people are caught up in the tedium of daily life as they insouciantly sip their favourite Starbucks latte' gazing out into the empty abyss.
This would directly smack JM Keynes in the face. He spent his time defending his new macro theories by arguing to his fellow economists that the free market lacked an auto regenerative device to fix these issues. Debt financed spending was his mantra . Isn't it ironic that Oswald Mosley, England's leading fascist at the time was an ardent supporter of his policies. And here we are today...
How bout : Super Genius, at least it shows a modicum of humility. And you won't ruffle any feathers in the heavens. Lol
Thank you
Gld - at what point does the correlation between stocks and oil start to lessen a bit
McDonald's the golden child stock of economic calamity. I remember in 07-08 it did quite well. I wonder if any HFmgrs are long this shamrock shake of a gem. Lol
I think the Bulls are climbing a wall of worry. "Sweep the leg Johnny" - karate kid
Let's hope for the best.
I thought this analysis of China was a good review of what has happened in Asia and what we can expect.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-22/china-2016-us-2008-felix-zulauf-warns-outcome-major-yuan-devaluation-would-be-disast
I thought you would agree with Ray. He's one of the few who seems to be no non sense and tells it like it is. Davos is a beautiful place.
Too bad we weren't in Davos today with our Moncler Bubble down jackets on.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-20/if-assets-remain-correlated-theyll-be-depression-ray-dalio-says-qe4-just-around-corn
Sounds good to me. Thanks.
Gld, why are there those that believe QE doesn't push bond yields down. Isn't this what we are seeing. And they get really upset about it. End of day rally I don't get either. The euro was up and oil rallied a bit but still down overall.
Lol! I'm glad. :)
Thank you. An uncovered manhole can be a dangerous thing for a pogo stick.
Gld, correct me if I'm wrong, under the gold standard, exchange rates were fixed, so that the Balance of payments had to adjust through domestic deflation. ? Bubble pops are by their very nature deflationary
I went out last night as a good American and bought several winter sweaters as part of the post holiday sale- a- bration! That should pump up retail numbers don't you think?! Lol
I'm with you. :)
Love the Mary Poppins reference.
You reminded us of '29 last week with this post:
If you read 'Rainbows End' the story of the 29 crash, it was described also as slow motion. The crash wasn't a one day affair but stretched out over seven weeks.
One down, six to go.
Let's say : two down five to go.
Slow drip is fine by me...
Wow! That's one long winter cycle.
Kondratiev lives on...
An aging population who is dependent on government entitlements and is becoming a larger portion of the overall distribution curve of the current US population is also very deflationary and could prolong the winter cycle indefinitely.
Thank you
Gld- this continued dumping of treasuries by China, why hasn't it sent interest rates higher? An additional 20% currency devaluation would be scary. At what point do we see a negative response to rates here at home? Thx
Ming Pao Hong Kong paper reports: Shanghai residents are queuing at local banks to sell RMB for USD amid fears about more RMB depreciation.
As SocGen points in a note today, "press reports at the end of last week suggested that senior policy advisors would like to see a sharp one-off depreciation of the CNY. The theory is that once such a move had been accomplished, the domestic capital outflows, that are putting additional pressure on China's financial system and draining the FX reserve, would stop. The same policy advisors, however, recognise the dangers of such a strategy. First, domestic savers may not believe a “one-and-done” strategy, risking further capital outflows. Second, China's political standing in the G20 group could well suffer as a result, which is important point to the current administration. Finally, the potential disruption to financial stability outside China, and with the risk of an Asian currency war, would ultimately feedback negatively to China.
I hear there wasn't a winner. Jackpot now up to 1.3 billion
That sounds great! Same here! Good luck.
Got it. Btw the powerball lottery is now at $800 million. I bought a ticket. If I win you win
That's good news!
&also,Dow and S&P off to worst five day start to a year in history.
Maybe we should bring back the Clinton era slogan of the economy back in the 90's " it's the economy stupid". Of course, we know how that ended. Hahahaha!
I guess with today's job report it plays into the Bears hands.
We should look for further rate increases even though wage growth is flat.
That's great! Best of Luck!
Lol! A friend is on the retail (clothing) side of things told me; that a men's wearhouse suit costs $20 to manufacture and depending on the Ralph Lauren label blue- purple anywhere from $50-100 . Those are great margins ! Hopefully I'll be in a purple label Ralph Lauren suit sooner than later...
50k! Wow....,the gold bugs keep saying now is the time to buy. I really can't see gold dipping below a fine Italian suit per ounce. However I could be wrong. I just don't trust the dollar anymore. It may be the only game in town in terms of a viable currency and that's not a real vote of confidence in my opinion. At some point, as we all know, this deflationary spiral will have to reverse course. And then of course conditions will be favorable for gold.
But who knows what kind of social instability that will bring in to have those favorable conditions for gold.
In the meantime, I'll buy my suits at men's wearhouse.