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I've been seeing same freaking posts over and over again for years "there will be no dilution", "they have enough money", blah blah blah. Yet the company keeps diluting every time they get an opportunity. The next opportunity is good RI results.
No point to argue.
BO is never a sure thing. They will need money to expend fast in case BO doesn't happen. Both dilution and BO negotiations will happen concurrently.
Dilution is highly likely unless a BO happens around RI results announcement as BB is suggesting.
Amarin raised money in January to "jump start", now they will need money to keep it going full speed ahead.
And the sh.thead is back. "Let me tell you what I mean by 30min interval...."
I think DB lock will occur this Friday and top line results release next Tuesday in pm, so no one can take advantage of any possible leak.
Honestly those who did their DD on V don't need any leaks. The odds of RI success are overwhelming.
Judging by the questions some so called analysts asked during the CC, too many investors have no clue. No wonder they trade Amarin based on fish oil Meta analysis crap.
Sounds like DB lock by the end of this week and top line results right after the Labor day next week.
And if they disclose all this information tomorrow as you suggested what does it change?
You were going to hold through RI results anyway.
This info is relevant for DTs and shorts only.
I think we go up tomorrow and continue marching up all the way into RI results. Unless they are released tomorrow of course.
Yes, it does.
Mineral oil subject is dead. The most reasonable explanation is the Anchor trial washout period simply wasn't long enough which btw plays in favor of V.
If someone can't understand the difference between 465mg and 3,800mg of EPA, that 375mg of DHL in Lovaza raises LDL, that patients in ASCEND didn't have high trigs and other risk factors as patients in RI. Then they deserve to miss out on this opportunity. In fact, if they can't comprehend basic stuff like this they should not be investing at all.
The bottom line, RI will be successful. ASCEND failure will make V case only stronger. V will get CVD label and access to multi billion market which it will dominate.
Anyone have access to STAT? AF is out with a new article.
https://www.statnews.com/2018/08/26/negative-fish-oil-study-results-raise-stakes-for-amarin-capsule/
ASCEND
RESULTS
During a mean follow-up of 7.4 years (adherence rate, 76%), a serious vascular event occurred in 689 patients (8.9%) in the fatty acid group and in 712 (9.2%) in the placebo group (rate ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 1.08; P=0.55). The composite outcome of a serious vascular event or revascularization occurred in 882 patients (11.4%) and 887 patients (11.5%), respectively (rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.09). Death from any cause occurred in 752 patients (9.7%) in the fatty acid group and in 788 (10.2%) in the placebo group (rate ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.05). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of nonfatal serious adverse events.
CONCLUSIONS
Among patients with diabetes without evidence of cardiovascular disease, there was no significant difference in the risk of serious vascular events between those who were assigned to receive n-3 fatty acid supplementation and those who were assigned to receive placebo. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN60635500; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00135226.)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1804989
ASCEND: In this multicenter randomized placebo-controlled trial, supplementation with omega-3 fatty acid did not reduce the risk of serious vascular events in people with diabetes without CVD at study entry.
https://t.co/JQPUCmb9PM
ASCEND: In this multicenter randomized placebo-controlled trial, supplementation with omega-3 fatty acid did not reduce the risk of serious vascular events in people with diabetes without CVD at study entry. https://t.co/vmN1Zrqlv5 #ESCCongress pic.twitter.com/JQPUCmb9PM
— Michelle Flament (@MichFlament) August 26, 2018
"Fish oil or snake oil?
Sunday will see two separate presentations of data from the Ascend trial, which, though not testing Amarin’s fish oil formulation Vascepa, could nevertheless give insight into Vascepa’s approvability.
The first presentation concerns data from the aspirin arm of the study, but the second looks at the ability of the fish oil supplement Lovaza to prevent cardiovascular events in diabetic patients.
The primary outcome of Ascend is the rate of a combination of non-fatal heart attack, non-fatal stroke or transient ischaemic attack, or vascular death, excluding confirmed cerebral haemorrhage. It is doubtful that Lovaza will produce a definitive benefit, but if it does the fortunes of fish oil developers could be revolutionised. The win would likely be interpreted as a harbinger of success in Vascepa’s huge cardiovascular outcomes trial, Reduce-It (Sink or swim for fish oils, and Amarin, July 16, 2018)."
http://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/conferences/esc-2018-preview-getting-heart-pfizers-amyloidosis-data
JL,
I wouldn't call you a "moron". Period.
I'm with you on this. That's why I bought a sizable position again and holding through the results.
But as we all learned besides science there's also FDA, BP, Generics, ITC, dilutions, and God knows what else. That's why it's always wise to take profits off the table from time to time.
Maybe tomorrow around noon time if I'm not lazy.
JL,
You described only one reason why buyouts happen. There's plenty of other reasons. I do believe Amarin will be sold after good RI results if the price is right. However it might take some time. I would guess a BO would happen within a year from RI results announcement.
Buyouts are cool. Most of them significantly increase shareholders value almost instantaneously.
I'm afraid you are the only Amarin long who still advocates for a GIA. Honestly what would you prefer $20-$30 BO in 2012 or $2.77 in 2018. lol
Their Jersey HQ is 1 hour drive from my place. Maybe it's worth the shot...
Of course they do. If the DB was locked and representatives from Amarin are assessing the data don't you think they would let their fellows back in the office know how the things are shaping up. Obviously in informal conversations.
They don't even need to discuss it directly. Just state something like "everything is perfect" and wink answering to a typical question "how's everything?"
Yes, AMRN MB does look busy especially if you come from AGEN board. lol
Btw nobody is forcing you to listen/read posts on this board.
Btw if Monday's CC is about RI that obviously means JT and other executives already know results.
If the Monday's CC is not about RI results then why go above and beyond doing damage control in case of poor ASCEND trial results? Especially since JT already stated ASCEND results won't have much relevance to RI results.
Maybe because the higher the stock price the easier for the buying company to justify BO price to its shareholders. That fits into BBs theory on Amarin releasing RI results along with a BO offer announcement.
Here is what JT said in the latest CC conclusion remarks.
"So those were, I think, questions coming in from the outside. I appreciate the questions we had here. We’re beyond an hour at this point in time. I thank you for your interest and we look forward to continued update and in particular as I started with, I think our next primary update, will be a report of the results of the REDUCE-IT study and we’re very much looking forward to that and should have those to report to you before the end of September. Thank you everybody."
JL,
I think it's just a poorly worded paragraph. They wanted to emphasize that nothing like RI was done before and went too far. Also, how about Jelis? Or they exclude it because it wasn't a multinational trial? lol
The bottom line, as JT mentioned several times before, V isn't only about lowering trigs. If RI is successful other trigs lowering therapies aren't getting CVD label unless they run successful outcome trials.
I think this is also consistent with the current FDA stand on this.
If not RI results then something else. I find it very hard to believe management called a CC just to discuss this presentation. I don't recall them doing anything like this in the past.
Amarin is presenting these data in Munich today. Sending a PR on Friday ahead of presentation wouldn't make sense.
https://www.escardio.org/Congresses-%26-Events/ESC-Congress
I agree. They have something else to discuss. Could very well be RI results. If so expect a PR with top line results at 6am on Monday.
FFS,
Supporting your argument with your previous arguments. That doesn't make it any stronger.
Yes, I am in denial. I deny to believe a crappy fish oil Meta analysis has any bearing on RI results. I deny there was any leak for months now according to you.
Now let's see if my denial pays off.
FFS,
You possess logic of a typical day trader who never makes real money. You were wrong many times before. You are wrong again.
That's right. After ADCOM I said to myself never again. Yet here I am again.
Thank God FDA is not involved this time. Not yet.
Don't you think commercials promoting CVD risk reduction would make more sense than commercials about reducing very high triglycerides.
What a waste.
Anyone thinks V commercials were worth 40% pps haircut?
As I stated before it was a bad decision to dilute ahead of RI.
Who said smart money aren't in?
Not all money are smart. In fact, there's plenty of stupid money in this market.
The only good thing about today is we are one day closer.
That sounds like stock manipulation.
Jelis didn't fail...
I doubt they will raise before RI. But you can almost count on another round of dilution immediately after positive results.