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Well it seems like we’re in for the usual pattern this morning. Drive the stock up .20-.30-.40 then in about 45 minutes to an hour to start letting the air out of it and end up down $.15-.20. That is in a strong market today with the s&p up $3.76 right now. A normal pattern that steels a few shares from traders after they scalp their pocket money. I hope that I am wrong but this is what we have seen for months and months and months now.
Just to play devils advocate, if Jin started in January he has had 3 months to review. If he found that the data doesn’t jive well it will take him another 3-6 months to get his next job. So just because he hasn’t quit yet, give him some time. It’s early.
But I doubt that will happen.
Yes I get that but what you and Hoskuld fail to mention is that the stock is now in strong hands. They just keep buying more quarter after quarter. Blackrock didn’t start out with 7%. The larger the holdings for these guys the less there is for flippers,traders and retail. Hopefully what we see come mid May is more biotech funds jumping in, the likes of Baker Bros. Once we get the full data released and if positive all bets are off as to how high we trade.
Btw, anyone else find it interesting that Missling showed up in Australia for a simple presentation? Something else is going on. I wonder what other meetings took place. Who travels 24 hours for a single presentation? We already have staff in Australia that could have handled it. I wonder why the Childhood Dementia people said that they couldn’t release the presentation because it had unpublished information in it. What is that unpublished information?? How critical to our success is that information? Did he mention something about the 50mg dosage? Did he mention something about NDA submission to the Australian regulators?
I believe that institutional investors are closer to 37% not 30%. The turning point will be mid May when we see the next report. If we are closer to 50% that will be fantastic. That will put approximately 63% in stronger hands. 50% + 13%. If all of the block trades that have been going off over the last few months turn out to be selling we are in trouble.
Come on Dr. Missling say something please. Throw us a bone.
We are not a hidden gem. We are owned by some of the top institutional investors in the business. We have three or four of them that own over 5% each of our company. We attend every major Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and Rett conference that’s out there. We attend every major health care conference out there that we’re invited to. We are very well known in the CNS circles. If you’re talking about unknown from a retail investor standpoint may be so, but those are not the guys that are going to be driving the price up to $100 price per share. Not yet anyway. As soon as the institutional investors climb up to 60-70% then we can start seeing our little company get a lot more exposure and pushed out there by the big guys. Getting up to those levels might be when we see the reports in mid May.
They are having 10 block trades already in the first 20 minutes this morning. They range from on the high-end 13,600 to the low end of 4000. That is probably what we average over the last several months every day. To have that in the first 10 minutes seems pretty impressive to me. Hopefully some of the whales taking advantage of the low stock price this morning down about 3%.
All the secrecy’s lead me to believe that partnership talks are not happening but buyout talks may be. He has kept headcount very low when most of us thought he should have been adding. Could many of the key milestones been hit if we had a 100 more bodies on board. Say 150 total headcount. Probably but what would our financials look like? Any future owner of Anavex wants our technology not the employees. Or maybe just the top 20 who has all the knowledge. If we added 100 more players we would also be raising more cash and our outstanding share count would be around 100M.
I say we will be bought out by the end of the summer between $7B and $12B. The stock price recovers along the way as we release the Alzheimer’s, PDD and Rett data along with starting all the other trials they have hinted at.
If the company does not have a in person shareholders meeting in the coming months each and every one of us needs to write the board of directors and demand that our questions get answered on the conference call. All questions answered to the best of their ability. I believe that they are hiding information for strategic reasons which I believe are very positive. But….. I also believe that the lack of data to press release helps the company get the stock into institutional hands and out of retail.
This has been going on since the stock got hammered in December. They put out that they hit all endpoints, but came up with some sketchy data which triggered Adam Fierstein. The stock has been in serious consolidation since then. 9-12 for months now. Is this part of Dr Missling’s plan? Get the stock into the hands of people who don’t bitch every day? Keep the stock very low to get their shares on the cheap. Did he get his shares already for completing the Alzheimer’s trial? If I remember correctly he was to get more shares for completing Alzheimer’s trial, for starting the non disclosed trial and for completing the Rett trials. Did he receive any of the shares??? If not I am sure that might be part of the low price. He doesn’t want them at $30 does he.
At some point in time the powers that be will let this run. What triggers the run is unknown. Peer review? Alzheimer’s data? PDD data? Rett data?
Actually the volume is great along with block trades. Several large blocks this morning. 12,900, 9,228, 23,000,11,436, 7,448, 16,288 . I only track 4k shares and above.
We typically don't see this much in the first 10 min of trading.
George put Anavex into the search box.
https://www.svbsecurities.com/transactions/
Two transactions show up. Maybe the $150M that we recently announced is tied to SVB. They are co agents on the 2020 and the 2021 deals. They might have been announced with Lincoln Park but SVB could be a co agent and that could screw up our future financial plans for the $150m we just announced.
With $140m in the bank we are good for now but how much does it affect us if the $150m went away How much could it slow down our pipeline? Hopefully not at all. We need a press release to get the real exposure.
The guy has been on board for over two months and now they throw out a press release?? I think that they are trying to combat the stock purchase by the Sava executive and throw us a bone.
I just counted up all the shares on fintel.io that are owned by the institutions and I have found a discrepancy unless I am reading it wrong.
Institutional Shares (Long) 28,392,818 - 36.39% They are showing 28M shares being held but when I add up just the holdings of 100K or above I am getting over 40M shares in strong hands. If it is truly over 40M shares then the institutional ownership is over 50%. With Missling owning 9% and other insiders at probably 3% that takes us to 62%. Can anyone make heads or tails of this please.
I hope there are at least 100 of us that will be attending the shareholders meeting. If they choose to hide behind a virtual meeting as opposed to an in person meeting, I would also hope that everyone would try to raise your hand and ask questions because we are being shut out from answers that we have a right to have and if they are hiding from us, we need to raise the stakes. I would also go as far and say that the institutions are not interested in asking the hard questions because they are in accumulation mode and they don’t want to get the answers just yet to drive the price higher. I guess that is a good thing in the long run, but we have been harmed tremendously by this low share price, and we need to get the company to acknowledge that a fair value for the company is much higher than where it is today. Not just acknowledge a fair market value, but do something to drive the price to that fair market value.
If that is your perspective, then why are institutions loading up on our stock at these lower levels? I highly doubt they would be loading up based on a failed phase 2 trial.
My question is how does RETA get a P2 approval with just 102 patients patients for a rare disease and we just keep getting no love from the FDA.
https://www.reatapharma.com/our-science/default.aspx#pipeline
How in the world does this happen or do we have a management team that just doesn't have the clout that other small companies do. Can someone please give us an honest opinion as to why our Rett program is not approved for at least adult use but their P2 gets approval and about a $2B bump in market cap. Did the fda just kick the can down the road and said do the pediatric also which delayed us about a year? Why didn't we go for approval when we had the P3 data. Did we have to do the pediatric or could we have forced the fda to approve the adult first. This does not make sense to me.
So institutions now own close to 37%. Add on another say 13% for insiders keeping in mind that Missling owns just about 10% now that brings us to about 50% locked up in strong hands. So that means that retail still owns about 50% of the float. Still to high. Would like to see another 15% go to the institutions. That should keep the price firm without too much manipulation. Maybe when we see the reports for institutions on 5/15 we will see a much larger increase.
Index funds have now reported.
https://fintel.io/so/us/avxl
Lots of additions.
Why is this new Parkinson’s trial a p2 and not going directly to a p3? I don’t see a date on the attached press release so maybe it’s the old trial.
https://www.karaminds.com.au/clinical-trials/
A pdd trial shows up in the past trials category so I’m guessing this is old news but I hope I’m wrong.
You know what, I not sure I really are anymore about the SEC or the FDA or the Shorts. The shorts are typically the smart ones out there and if they are now covering then that is a great sign for upward movement. I know everyone wants a short squeeze but they are few and far between. If we have to let them cover, then so be it. Make it quick so we can move up. The deck is stacked against all of retail. We can only hope that in the end we made the correct decision and our stock will see fair value. To me right now that is at least $50 and probably much higher.
Yes saw that. Nice blocks, 50K, 30K 10,900 and 10K all just went off in the last few minutes. Not your avg retail buys.
So we are now up to approx. 36.5% institutional holders. State Street has now overtaken Blackrock with 5.812M shares vs the 5.578M for BR. Goldman has added 127% to their share count to over 727K shares. UBS added 556%, Bank of American more than doubled their share count to over 506K shares.
In total so far, we are up about 3.5% from last quarter with a few more to report. That is great movement and I look forward to the additions that took place this quarter that will probably get us over 40% when the next readout occurs in mid May.
https://fintel.io/so/us/avxl?d=2022-12-31
State Street just reported and they currently own 7.46% of the outstanding shares of Anavex. That would be approximately 5.8 million shares.
The only reason why you want a Goldman Sachs or a J.P. Morgan to get the deal is for the guidance that comes with it. Wouldn’t it be great to have a strong buy recommendation from a big name institution?? This where Missling is short sighted? He doesn’t care about the stock price today. He knows where it will be on approval or some other big milestone. Since retail is the majority of holders, he just doesn’t care. He would rather have us slowly turn our shares over to the tutes. And the tutes are happy because they are getting cheap shares.
Tens of millions??? You are way off. Try hundreds of millions if not a billion! He has approximately 7M shares
Mayo good morning. Quick question for you. Did either you or Dr. Grimmer need to gain approval from Dr. Missling in order for him to speak with you or was he just speaking from the heart with no requirements from Missling? Just wondering if he was speaking freely or if he was more cautious talking to you.
Also when do you think you will have the conversation documented and loaded onto SOTC? Thanks.
If the attached is true and some of these institutions have added as much as this article portrays, I think we are in for a big surprise as to the buying activity for tutes. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nasdaq-avxl-sec-filing-2023-01-30/
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC purchased a new position in shares of Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (NASDAQ:AVXL - Get Rating) in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor purchased 10,461 shares of the biotechnology company's stock, valued at approximately $108,000.
(From Investing Trends)pixel
[color=red]Other large investors have also modified their holdings of the company. State Street Corp grew its holdings in Anavex Life Sciences by 45.5% in the first quarter. State Street Corp now owns 5,577,256 shares of the biotechnology company's stock valued at $68,656,000 after purchasing an additional 1,743,222 shares during the last quarter. Renaissance Technologies LLC acquired a new stake in Anavex Life Sciences in the 2nd quarter worth about $3,582,000. Millennium Management LLC acquired a new stake in Anavex Life Sciences in the 2nd quarter worth about $2,616,000. ExodusPoint Capital Management LP boosted its stake in Anavex Life Sciences by 587.1% in the 2nd quarter. ExodusPoint Capital Management LP now owns 178,113 shares of the biotechnology company's stock worth $1,783,000 after buying an additional 152,189 shares during the last quarter. Finally, UBS Group AG boosted its stake in Anavex Life Sciences by 60.2% in the 1st quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 352,516 shares of the biotechnology company's stock worth $4,339,000 after buying an additional 132,474 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 31.22% of the company's stock.[/color]
I wonder if Dr. Missling is waiting for him and the rest of the executives to collect their stock before releasing any more data. I know he’s got about a half a million shares or so riding on the successful completion of a phase 3 trial and the starting of the other trials like fragile X. if that hasn’t occurred yet which we would have a press release if it was and maybe he is waiting until that kicks off to get the shares at a lower price. Maybe the FDA has been slow to move on getting the fragile X trial started. And on top of that if the Alzheimer’s trial is not considered a phase 3 does he lose those potential shares? Just wondering.
So why was it up yesterday after the conf ?
Forget about todays presentation, I'm more interested in the formal meetings and side chats that Dr. Missling will be having. I'm sure with this being a financial conf there will be several interested parties attending. How about all the institutions that haven't taken a position just yet like Baker Bros, etc. They are going to want in on the next big drug to treat CNS Disease. How about the meetings with potential partners. I'm sure there are a few interested potential partners.
I have a naive question. In what format is the TLR or TLD put out? Most of the time with any company providing data from a trial they put out a press release with the high level data from what the endpoints are and state if they made them or not. Also providing some level of detail from the trial. P values, comparisons on drug dosages, comparisons to competitive drugs , etc. How and when does the full data set come out from the company? Is that the peer review? Is it what they give to the FDA?
Personally I am expecting new data at the J.P. Morgan conference. Not “full “ data but many slides that give us some of the information mentioned above. Especially comparing blarcamisine to biogen and the 30mg to 50mg. Along with the path to approval. We also might see some of the Alz and PDD OLE data. Just as an FYI it also seems like we are seeing our name mentioned more positively in the press over the last days. By design or coincidentally? I’m thinking by design with upgrades coming by some of the bigger guys after the presentation. Maybe even J.P. Morgan. Thanks in advance for the responses.
If avxl has what dr Missling says we have and we beat Biogen handily on all endpoints we go totally frontal in our approach starting this coming Thursday. I suspect that we have a press release Thursday morning followed by some CLEAR unambiguous explosive statements/slides regarding Blarcamisine vs Biogen. What I hope and pray is that we ( the company), has the wherewithal and contacts to get the word out to the big publications this time. Since we were pressed for time at ctad we have had over 5 weeks to get our act together. We need to shout it from the rooftops and see the positive press that seems to be reserved only for the likes of the Biogens of the world. We need a full on marketing campaign now. I suspect we won’t get it since we do not have a marketing team in place but over the next few weeks and months we will get exposure. Maybe we get a surprise and they will have something bigger planned ie. partnership or TV ( CNBC, Bloomberg, cnn) exposure in the coming months but really not expected. After all that is what Biogen does. Why not us. It should be us. It should have been us years ago. Let’s hope that Missling has learned from past mistakes and has a better plan this go round. Anyone out there feeling the same way??
Well again, what does any of it have to do with getting an approval for a drug through the FDA EMA or the Australian agency. I don’t care if he shot someone on fifth Avenue and got off on a technicality, it has nothing to do with the science or the ability for the company to get the drug approved. What is your goal in continuing this thread?? Why don’t you put a call into Missling and ask him his thoughts on how to get around the perceived problem you are getting people worked up over. To me it is a non issue. And I’m sure to the ceo a non issue as well since he hired him. Unless they are both in on the plot to deceive you.
Red flag? What does this have to do with Anavex?? Nothing. Keep your eye on the science not the fud of the short crowd. Tell me what does this have to do with getting fda approval for Alzheimer’s and Rett? The only thing you are doing is continuing a BS narrative by responding to a BS short.
A couple of things. Didn't Missling state that he was going forward with all regulatory agencies before the end of the year and look for accelerated approval? I thought he stated that on the Monday call after the CTAD meeting. Second, I think that the FDA screw up with Biogen only helps Anavex.
In this article https://endpts.com/congressional-inquiry-into-highly-atypical-fda-biogen-ties-ends-with-damning-report-no-repercussions/ the FDA states the following: FDA reviewers and the agency’s report noted that these regular meetings between Biogen and the agency were “not typical of other development programs,” but FDA ultimately legitimized the decision by concluding that the interactions “were consistent with the agency’s public health mission given the potential for the first disease modifying drug for Alzheimer’s disease.”
What if all of a sudden the agency STOPS doing this for companies that have a better mousetrap and the real first disease modifying drug in Blarcamisine? That would look even worse for them and I hope everyone on all the message boards call their representatives and the FDA and scream. Meanwhile , a third wammy would be Europe or Australia approving Blarcamisine before them. I think Anavex is in the drivers seat once the full data is released and peer reviewed. Then the partner shows up along with a running PPS.
I made mention of this last week in my top 10 predictions. We have noticed as the price goes down avxl keeps ramping up in hiring. We just added a big hitter with the Sr. VP of Reg. Affairs role recently filled. I think to fix one of the problems we have as a company is to fix the Wall Street issues we have. One way to do that is to bump Missling up to CEO only. Let him handle the strategic nature of the business, all high level stuff. Bring on a new President to handle day to day. Someone who has gained the respect of Wall St. and and has brought new drugs to market. Someone who will automatically be a positive recognized face to the street and add street cred to the company. Someone who can step in as CEO when Missliing decides it is time to move on in 10 years. I see that happening in 2023.
This to me is the biggest problem we have as it relates to our stock price. Like many have been saying, if Biogen showed the results we have their stock would rise by $20B.
Just an FYI approximately 20% of the shares traded today are block trades over 5000 shares per trade. I’ve also noticed that the institutional ownership is going up over the last several days as well if you look at fintel. May be a small sign that we’re bottoming out and institutions are either coming on board or adding to their current shares. Tax selling only has a few days left.
Because once it reaches these levels and they have their fill the shorting games stop for the most part. They are considered the smart money over the short side with less shares to short. When the institutional investors latch on to avxl and realize they have the goods, they will set triple digits as their targets and will totally drive the shorts out. They can have a few of my shares at 50 , 75 and 100. But I will hold the majority for the buyout.
$AVXL Here is my wish list for Christmas and 2023. In no particular order. Feel free to add.
1. Filing of NDA for Blarcamisine for Alzheimer's by end of Q1 2023 and NDA for Rett Syndrome by EOQ2.
2 . Hire VP Sales and Marketing by EOQ2
3. As part of the new VP Marketing's role, hire a marketing company to help drive our brand. Nobody knows us.
4 .Start Fragile X P3 trial by EOQ1.
5. Hire new Pres. and bump Missling to CEO. Get him out of the day to day.
6. Approval of Rett by Q3 and Alz by Q4.
7. Partnership EOQ2. $1B upfront. World Wide
8. Add at minimum 4 new indications to pipeline by EOY 2023. 2 in the 1st half and 2 in second half.
9. Complete Fragile X P3 trial by EOQ3. Readout Q4.
10. Headcount grows to 200 by EOY 2023.
10a. 70% - 80% Institutional ownership with average price per share targets of $100 by EOY 2023.
https://flip.it/ak7NHZ Drugmakers Are Testing Ways to Stop Alzheimer’s Before It Starts
There is a lot to think about here. Anyone know Missling’s options schedule coming up. I would assume he is owed about 500k-1m shares for completing a successful Alzheimer’s trial and he wants those shares as cheap as possible. Thus why he gave a mediocre press release on trial results. Who wants shares at $40 when you can get them at $8. That goes for all employees as well. Especially to attract new executives. Everyone wants cheap shares except retail holders. Everyone meaning employees, hedge funds, institutions, etc. Retail probably has all that they can afford and wants their payday.
https://stocktwits.com/J60611/message/502364955