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We won't forget him when PPHM's day comes
Great guy - a real contributor; we won't forget to mention him nor think of him when PPHM's day comesl
Best wishes to the family - we are sorry for your loss
If pps hits $1.29, half the Board will sell
Heh, heh, heh... all part of the plan.
RETAIL GET OUT
Joe
Great molecule - side effects will destroy it
You can't play footsey with T-cells and expect everything to go smoothly. Ask Opdivo users.
This drug will flame out on side effects UNLESS Bavi is added to the mix - then it MIGHT be helpful.
Regards,
Joe
ku, de-listing is absurd; broader market correction
is more likely your culprit for the low PPS, as CP mentions.
Now, personally, I do think there is downward manipulation of the stock to put pressure on retail to sell quickly upon the first rise.
The only way PPHM can exchange 80 or 150 or 200 million shares in a few days time with excellent SUNRISE results, is if true longs cough up millions of shares at $5 or $8 or $10.
That's the only way. And it WILL happen. Personally, I think it'll be a big mistake to sell that low, but I UNDERSTAND it. We've got a lot of friends on the Board who have been underwater for many years and they're ready to sell and enjoy the green light totals on their brokerage accounts. They want money in the Bank.
Now, the science is stronger than ever, which the bears don't like to admit. There is simply no reason for the PPS to behave as it has, EXCEPT for the vagaries of the market, and of course the TONs of shorts who will continue to put more pressure than ever on the PPS as we advance forward.
Regards,
Joe (Six-Pack)
PURPLE - the psychological war is JUST beginning
I've been pushing the message for weeks on the coming war - RETAIL GET OUT.
There aren't enough free blocks. Look at the wooden liquidity. NO BODY is selling. Nobody.
This retail crowd 9meaning us)isn't going anywhere. That's the problem. So expect some serious turbulence directed at retail to cough up shares. The assault and maneuvers will be relentless.
$0.98 per share for no reason whatsoever, it doesn't make sense... more top-shelf collaborations than ever, more independent KOLs, more trials that ever... what gives? IT. MAKES. NO. SENSE.
Answer. This pps will go even LOWER. And it won't surprise me at all.
ANYTHING to induce FUD and selling, selling, selling.
Regards,
Joe
Paul, AZN and MSK and NCCN don't sign up with
losers. AZN knows SOMETHING. You don't just give millions of dollars of your own drug to some little Tustin, California biotech for NOTHING.
You just don't. They know something. Wolchok knows something. More and more KOLs know the cell membrane and PS are where the interface lies for immunosuppression or potentiation.
We control that membrane. Cellular life is IMPOSSIBLE without that membrane.
Not a bad place at all to place your bet.
Regards,
Joe
RETAIL GET OUT - the coming psychological war
How to pry those precious PPHM shares from Joe Retail?
Here's a list:
1 - Long-suffering underwater shareholders, (myself included) essentially already apoplectic, leap at the chance to "break even," after YEARS in the red. They jump ship at the initial break, $5 pps, and surrender their shares. Message? SELL NOW.
2 - Any SUNRISE success will surely be HEAVILY qualified; "PPHM can't market it, they can't make enough of it, they have no experience with a successful Phase III drug, they're too late to market now, other bigger players will out-maneuver them, blah..blah...blah... long and short it, SELL NOW.
3 - PPHM won't be able to market Bavi effectively, they're a small fish in a big ocean, by the time they commercialize more effective therapies will take over SOC, blah, blah, so SELL NOW.
4 - Lung cancer is just one indication, and that market is already saturated and carved up by multiple players (small-cell, non-small cell squamous, adeno, et. al.), so SELL NOW. Sure, Bavi might have other indications, but those are YEARS away, so SELL NOW.
Blah, blah...ad nauseam...bottom line: SELL NOW.
It's coming, brothers. Expect the e-magazines to go ballistic upon SUNRISE success. PPHM is a little fish with a big prize and a LOT of BPs are going to go seriously ballistic.
"Forewarned is forearmed." - Lao Tzu
Joe Six-Pack
Couch, good for you - wish I had more dry
powder myself at these prices.
Regards,
Joe
RM, don't worry too much. Soon enough, most investors
won't be able to buy 5,000 shares of PPHM. That'll cost 'em $250,000.
Don't forger Sunstar's solid cancer laundry list that he posts from time to time. PS is the apoptotic signal for the immune system to destroy the cell. The problem is that in cancer, so much PS is expressed that the immune system is overwhelmed and ultimately down-regulated.
Cancer occurs at the cell membrane. Peroid. We hold all the IP on the key cell membrane checkpoint. Don't forget that.
Many, many players will try to make you forget that.
Joe
"NO RISK IT, NO BISCUIT"
Monster, what has changed in the science? What trial result came out? Who pronounced that Bavi is no good?
Answer: Nothing, none, and no one.
You're panicking over....NOTHING.
You're being worked out. You think you have too much risk, and yet no data to confirm so.
NO RISK IT, NO BISCUIT, buddy.
Joe
Senrex, I hear you. If you've held on this long
then you know better than anyone that Biotech is a flaming rollercoaster with no seatbelts.
I don't think PPHM cares about retail. It's the MMs, the 'tutes, and the BPs that want us out.
I'm on YOUR side. Retailers must hold on tightly, for the psychological war will be relentless.
Joe
Nice post. Certainly a factor.
Either way, retail will be shaken to its foundations before PPHM really takes off.
The stock is just too heavily laden with Joe Six-Packs. BP doesn't like to make ordinary Joes millionaires.
So a psychological war is coming. In fact, it's already here.
Joe
I agree. Most will sell at $5
As many 'tutes can't buy in until that price point anyway.
The idea is to throw RETAIL a table scrap ($5 pps), and grab the golden cow and RUN. ($50-500 pps)
Either way, you're being worked on psychologically and prepped for the future.
That's all I ask you to consider.
Joe
Goat, no one will sell at $0.89, but they will
at $1.50, which is the idea...
Selling now would incur catastrophic losses. But it sets up retail for psychological relief, selling at $1.50, thinking they're getting out at a better price.
Playing us like a cheap violin.
RETAIL - GET OUT
Joe
The injection or WITHDRAWAL of liquidity
in a stock that is already petrified wood in terms of liquidity enables bigger shareholders to manipulate the pps however they desire.
FUDDER - Frustrated, Uneasy, Duped, Desperate, Exasperated Retailers
Ah, heck, I'm out", "I'm selling", "You never know with PPHM," "Time to cut losses" etc, etc, ad nauseam...
RETAIL GET OUT
North, "they" are the market makers (MM)
who can manipulate the bid and/or the ask with (very few) shares injected at the right time. If you follow Level 2, this stock's liquidity is kinda like petrified wood in Siberia.
An injection of liquidity (at times, a VERY small amount) timed correctly causes big swings in share price, that are quite often, otherwise unexplainable. Have you followed CPs thousands of posts on this?
Given the recent expansion and initiation of trials in THE MOST lucrative cancer markets (i.e. breast and lung), along with NCCN accepting to work with Bavi and offer it to 26 top cancer collaborators, I REMAIN QUITE SUSPICIOUS of this low pps exactly as the NCCN collaboration is announced.
Bottom line? RETAIL - GET OUT
Regards (and I enjoy your post)
Joe
Monster, the science hasn't changed at all
But everyone here is wiggin' out.
Walking right into the trap.
FUD = Frustrated, Uneasy, and Duped
RETAIL GET OUT
RETAIL - GET OUT
When the pps goes back to $1.50, watch the rats jump off the ship.
Just wait til it hits $5.00 - a TSUNAMI of rats will jump off.
All part of the plan.
Bottom line: Retail - get out.
They're playing us like a cheap violin.
Classic.
Joe
Board belongs to the bears...goodbye
Goat, we have predicted nothing on the Board
MSK? No chance. No one saw it coming, and no one here predicted it.
AZN? No chance. No one saw it coming, and no one here predicted it.
NCCN? No chance. No one saw it coming, and no one here predicted it.
See a trend?
Garnick clearly will have input into the BLA, but since it's a bear to put together, obviously he will guide the team who does it. That's what a seasoned supervisor does.
Your predictions have a certainly about them. They will all be WRONG.
Is Bavi Phase III a slam-dunk? Well, if you've lived long enough, you learn that nothing in life is a slam-dunk. But I like my odds. I like them even more now that MSK, AZN, and NCCN are on board. Clearly they see something you don't. Please, don't feel offended if I go with them.
Bears have pontificated here for years, brow-beating us for "external" validation for Bavi. "Only UTSW agrees, and they don't count." Well, when we get external validation of the MOA, when the number of literature citations continues to grow (1500+ papers), when researchers in other universities cite Bavi as a universal checkpoint inhibitor, when top-notch research labs want access to Bavi, what do we get? Well, more FUD.
I know the ol' Volgoat is in there somewhere. Hope to read him soon.
Regards,
Joe "Six-Pack"
North 40K and Sunstar, you must remember
patient. People don't get cancer and then get sick. They are sick for a very long time (or receive a sudden, terrible shock) and THEN get cancer.
Bavi and chemo, or Bavi and downstream checkpoints, may help eliminate a cancer, but if the substrate, i.e. the human platform, in which the neoplasm is engendered does not change, then the environment is there to re-introduce the cancer.
All cancer treatments must address the physical, mental, and spiritual (soul) aspects of the person being treated. What provoked the cancer in the first place? What permitted it to take hold and grow? How can the immune system be rebuilt through organic, non-GMO wholesome home-cooked nutrition shared with loving family and friends? How can it be rebuilt through prayer?
These are crucial questions beyond the mechanisms of pharmaceuticals. The terrain that allowed the cancer to grow must be dug up and renewed, and re-tilled with wholesome, sustained love.
Only that will confer the final cure for cancer that has eluded us for so long.
Regards,
Joe
Garn, you might consider
that you're holding on too tight. We're really not all kindergardeners here, naive to the evil machinations and prognostications of CP, as you might prefer to believe. Please.
We understand that Bavi's potential is based on extensive literature supporting its MOA, supportive studies, as well as the recent surprising collaborations with major players in the I/O field.
You make many good comments in your effort to contribute to the Board. Being a nanny with other people's money isn't one of them.
Joe
sale if you want a stable MC;
I think that's a good play for investors with similar concerns.
In all seriousness, it's a play to consider.
Joe
Mowns, Proctor and Gamble stock is for
Agarn, when the PPHM pop comes, it's doubtful
the pps will be $1. It will move up as results from the multiples collaborations start to roll in. So your math is wrong. The multiple of MC won't likely be "500-to-1."
Did you call the MSK agreement, MSK being the premier cancer research center worldwide, that accepted to work closely on Bavi? No, you did not.
Did you call the AZN collaboration and free provision of anti-PD-1 for PPHM to run important trials for Bavi? No, you did not.
Did you call the NCCN invitation that offers PPHM tremendous opportunities to combine Bavi with other (very expensive) IO agents? No, you did not.
All thought leaders in the IO field KNOW the future is in COMBO therapy. And they're ALL extending invitations to a little micro biotech from Tustin.
In sum, you have predicted nothing, and can offer nothing more than we already know.
Bavi may very well prove to be an integral part of multiple cancer protocols in the next 3-5 years. If anything, Cloaked's number could be on the low side.
Joe Six-Pack (**grin)
North, the number of shares doesn't matter,
It's the idea of getting a few bucks for something worth hundreds.
Regards,
Joe
Don't think so. Cat out of bag now.
SK's best move is to shout Bavi from the rooftops. NCCN gives Bavi too much exposure. AZN involvement caught many off-guard. The industry is already shocked a little $250 million company pullled off an international Phase III with almost 600 patients AND can manufacture its own product in-house.
RRdog is right. The company is on track to support its PPS right now throught Avid ALONE. When Avid III opens (and you better believe it will), you're looking at $80 million in revenues with valuation at $300-400 million. Uh, that's more than we're worth now for the whole company.
So the RS, always the nuclear option near-and-dear to bears, has a bad trigger.
Retail needs to get out. And get out it will. For breadcrumbs. While 'tutes and the MM's make off with the Kruggerrands.
Regards,
Joe Six-Pack(grin)
How to get retail out of PPHM
RRdog mentioned that we kinda get the bears' message, after hearing it thousands of times.
But a good point the bears do make is what-in-the-world are they going to do with all the retail Joe Six-Packs in the stock. Is GILD or PFE or Roche really going to mint all those slobs (meaning us) as multi-millionaires?
I think not. So the plan will utilize the pressure-valve approach. We've got a lot of bitter investors here, and that's FULLY understandable, given what's gone down since bloodbath Monday, September 24, 2012. It's been a hard road.
But how many us predicted where PPHM is now? Answer: no one. Nobody called MSK, nobody called AZN collaboration, nobody called NCCN, nobody called non-UTSW researchers talkin up PS blockade.
So the ONE THING certain for our future is that NO ONE will call it here. Everything so far has come out of the blue. For those of here for YEARS, we talked so much more about NSCLC because we thought that Bavi was just a lung cancer drug. We were talking with each other and did not know Bavi's MOA nor did PPHM.
So when the big bolt comes from the sky, we'll be caught off-guard, that much is sure. Because we really haven't called anything correctly, so far, (with the exception of threshing out the MDSC-crushing, immune-stoking, adaptive-immunity talents of our little molecule, Bavi.
Caught off-guard, we'll leap for joy and SELL. Just like good little retailers. Give 'em $5 pps, or $10 pps, or $20 pps, and just watch the little rats bail. All those lovely freed-up shares, to be quickly snapped up by 'tutes and the big boys.
With a cornerstone molecule, $20 pps is truly breadcrumbs. $200 pps is getting there, for a start. But the pressure valve will clean out retail and much lower sell points.
It's just a matter of time.
Regards,
Joe (Six-Pack) (**grin)
Time for more "Gedanken" thinking
Einstein often did "Gedanken" experiments, i.e. "thought" experiments to play out possible scenarios in quantum physics. It's a way of flipping and rolling possiblities around in one's mind.
When applied to stocks, it's not "pumping," althought it could be interpreted as such. More so, it's thinking, "Hey, this Bavi molecule is becoming a bit more intriguing. The director of MSK invited Brekken to present Bavi at his colloquium, and MSK has taken a real interest in Bavi, as has AZN. Maybe this stock is going to move in 2016."
What are the possibilities, then? Well, let's start with another Gedanken experiment.
How many American men who normally watch Monday Night Football are drinking beer at this moment in a bar? (Monday, 1/4/2016 at 9:30 p.m. EST) OK, well the U.S. population is 307 million, and 144 million are between the ages of 21-54 (2010 Census). Now, about 49% of those are male, which gives 70.5 million men in this age group. This demographic is probably more likely to drink beer in a bar, than older men who are at home with their family. Not necessarily, but more probable. Now Monday night isn't normally a busy night in a bar, EXCEPT for Monday Night Football.
Of course, the season being over, there is no MNF tonight. But, let's pretend for a sec. MNF is ESPN's diamond. It averages 13.3 million home cable TV viewers weekly, capturing 7 of the 10 highest-rated broadcasts on ESPN in a given year. So it's a decent measure. So if we say 10% of this crowd actually goes out and watches the game in a bar, you've got 1.3 million MEN 21-55 in a bar at this time. Sure, some men go out EVERY Monday to a bar to watch MNF, but certainly no more than stay home and watch it on TV. Ah, but as we said, no MNF tonight. So, let's reduce that number by half (a big assumption, I know, but it's based on only 10% of the home MNF group). Now we have 650,000 men 21-55 in a bar right now in the U.S.
So how many of them are drinking beer? Well, bar sales are usually 50% beer, 40% liquor, and 10% wine.
So right now, 325,000 men aged 21-55 are drinking BEER in a bar in the U.S.
Is this number accurate? Probably not, but it's probably in the ballpark. Is it unreasonable to assume that 5% of the MNF demographic is at a bar right now? And 2.5% is drinking beer? Think of 40 of your guy friends in this age group - what's the likelihood that just ONE of them is at a bar right now drinking beer? Pretty good. That's 2.5%.
Now, fast forward to one week from now. Monday, January 11, 2016 at 9:30 pm. How many men will be drinking beer in a bar then? Answer: a HELL of a lot more. Probably more than a million, maybe 1.5 million, watching Clemson vs. Alabama in the college title game.
So, when an event happens, results can quintuple. OK, so let's say PPHM quintuples. That puts PPHM at $6.00 per share. Haha. Well, as we've said here for years, it's easier to get to $10 or $20 or $40 dollars per share for PPHM than it is to get to $5.
If we can just get Bavi approved, if we can just get affirmation, then the gates open. And the stock price won't be $5 for long. Just as the Alabama brand will command top dollar when they win title #5 under Saban, PPHM will take command top dollar at the negotiating table with SUNRISE. Roll Tide!
Regards,
Joe
Does coenzyme Q10 reduce PS exposure
Anybody remember where the article for this was? Any assistance appreciated.
Regards,
Joe
Mass, appreciate the industry insight
Immuno-onc is not a place for a plodding, slow-grinding mega-BP. The field is moving FAR too quickly.
Case in point. The SOC for melanoma changed so fast this year that PPHM had to axe their melanoma trial with Yervoy because Keytruda beat Yervoy in its head-to-head P3 that came out in 4/2015 at the AACR.
THAT fast. Keytruda (anti-PD1, which also blocks ligands PD-L1 and PD-L2) is now SOC in unresectable melanoma. Yervoy was anti-CTLA-4. So you can see that PPHM couldn't continue with that trial.
A nimble, lean, hungry BP that wants to beat the mega-BPs off the line may very well be completing their DD on PPHM.
Regards,
Joe
Sunstar, alway appreciate your solid cancer
lists that are in play for Bavi's MOA. The potential is clearly vast if we can potentiate and synergize with the other anti-XYZ and T-cell players.
The big BPs have already poured billions into their T-cell modulators and they want ROI. unfortunately for them, large groups of non-responders are emerging. Side effects are also a problem as T-cells get overstimulated and provoke auto-immunity.
If Bavi can get non-responders to responds, and smooth over some of these others Mabs side effects, then hold on tight.
To quote Warren Buffet: "Buy and hold...forever."
Regards,
Joe
Great work, Mass - GILD has 7,000 employees and a $146B market cap
while MRK has 77,000 employees and (a lower) $144B market cap. Whoa.
GILD CEO John Martin is quoted thus:
Yeah, wook, but GILD didn't have $25 billon "years ago"
They WERE however, looking for a "cornerstone" molecule "years ago," and they found 2, namely Viread and Sovaldi/Harvoni.
Guess what - they're looking for their next cornerstone molecule...and they're in the ONC space.
Got any ideas -
Regards,
Joe
Swg, I think Nuke is basically right
PPHM has made a number of moves (aggressive Avid expansion, AZN-assisted breast and NSCLC trials to be started QUICKLY) that would make one think they really want to package Bavi in gold paper.
Who knows, they may have already talked with GILD, and GILD said that's what they want. PPHM is playing standoff-ish with AZN, which makes me think someone else has whispered into their ear.
Now, while less likely, the new ISTs could provide some intriguing data. The new Breast IST is NOT the old one that showed 85% RR with 15% CRs. This is another one, and if it confirms the first, then someone could move on us. But Nuke is right - the enrollment numbers are small and thus underpowered.
Now SUNRISE is very nicely powered with its randomized 586 enrollment. If nice data comes out with the look-ins, well then, look out, the deal will be struck quickly.
Regards,
Joe
Great post, nuke, I agree EOM
I agree; GILD has a flat trailing and forward PE
this year and they're pissed. CEO Martin (compensation $43 million last year) is getting seriously rewarded for the 500% increase in Gilead's value since 2011...BUT this is a "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" cut-throat industry.
GILD's board has a stupendous track record. Their acquisitions of Triangle (think Viread) and Pharmhasset (think Sovaldi/Harvoni) have basically given them a license to print money. But I don't see them kicking back. Not in this industry.
They're snarling for a cornerstone molecule for cancer. They have $24.7B cash sitting around doing nothing. Heck, they're not even interested in buying back their own stock. Which means they're on the warpath. Their stock is cheap right now (which based on the stupidly low PEs is a great bargain even at $100/share).
Expect GILD to jump sharply in value in the next 3 years. If they get their cancer cornerstone molecule, and that molecule is Bavi, we'll all pass out.
Haha,
Regards,
Joe
Nice post Eb; I would only mention that Roche
kept Genentech in South San Francisco after the buyout in 2009, and did not move it to Nutley, NJ (where Roche's U.S. base is).
They also left the scientific bench labs alone and didn't touch them, leaving them with autonomy. While some scientists did leave, many remained. Roche has continued to do well, and is, in fact, the third largest BP in the world.
I like your idea that any combination of stock/cash/percentage buyout is possible. The cell membrane is the crucial communicator with the immune system. We control the key membrane PS-signaling checkpoint for IO.
BP will come up with whatever combination they need to get their hands on it.
Regards,
Joe
James, here's the GILD cash article
24.7 Billion says Gilead is up to Something
Regards,
Joe