Time for more "Gedanken" thinking
Einstein often did "Gedanken" experiments, i.e. "thought" experiments to play out possible scenarios in quantum physics. It's a way of flipping and rolling possiblities around in one's mind.
When applied to stocks, it's not "pumping," althought it could be interpreted as such. More so, it's thinking, "Hey, this Bavi molecule is becoming a bit more intriguing. The director of MSK invited Brekken to present Bavi at his colloquium, and MSK has taken a real interest in Bavi, as has AZN. Maybe this stock is going to move in 2016."
What are the possibilities, then? Well, let's start with another Gedanken experiment.
How many American men who normally watch Monday Night Football are drinking beer at this moment in a bar? (Monday, 1/4/2016 at 9:30 p.m. EST) OK, well the U.S. population is 307 million, and 144 million are between the ages of 21-54 (2010 Census). Now, about 49% of those are male, which gives 70.5 million men in this age group. This demographic is probably more likely to drink beer in a bar, than older men who are at home with their family. Not necessarily, but more probable. Now Monday night isn't normally a busy night in a bar, EXCEPT for Monday Night Football.
Of course, the season being over, there is no MNF tonight. But, let's pretend for a sec. MNF is ESPN's diamond. It averages 13.3 million home cable TV viewers weekly, capturing 7 of the 10 highest-rated broadcasts on ESPN in a given year. So it's a decent measure. So if we say 10% of this crowd actually goes out and watches the game in a bar, you've got 1.3 million MEN 21-55 in a bar at this time. Sure, some men go out EVERY Monday to a bar to watch MNF, but certainly no more than stay home and watch it on TV. Ah, but as we said, no MNF tonight. So, let's reduce that number by half (a big assumption, I know, but it's based on only 10% of the home MNF group). Now we have 650,000 men 21-55 in a bar right now in the U.S.
So how many of them are drinking beer? Well, bar sales are usually 50% beer, 40% liquor, and 10% wine.
So right now, 325,000 men aged 21-55 are drinking BEER in a bar in the U.S.
Is this number accurate? Probably not, but it's probably in the ballpark. Is it unreasonable to assume that 5% of the MNF demographic is at a bar right now? And 2.5% is drinking beer? Think of 40 of your guy friends in this age group - what's the likelihood that just ONE of them is at a bar right now drinking beer? Pretty good. That's 2.5%.
Now, fast forward to one week from now. Monday, January 11, 2016 at 9:30 pm. How many men will be drinking beer in a bar then? Answer: a HELL of a lot more. Probably more than a million, maybe 1.5 million, watching Clemson vs. Alabama in the college title game.
So, when an event happens, results can quintuple. OK, so let's say PPHM quintuples. That puts PPHM at $6.00 per share. Haha. Well, as we've said here for years, it's easier to get to $10 or $20 or $40 dollars per share for PPHM than it is to get to $5.
If we can just get Bavi approved, if we can just get affirmation, then the gates open. And the stock price won't be $5 for long. Just as the Alabama brand will command top dollar when they win title #5 under Saban, PPHM will take command top dollar at the negotiating table with SUNRISE. Roll Tide!
Regards,
Joe
