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Ad com will be mixed trigs and CHD! This is new and big, or am I missing something?
Just dont forget that when Anchor is approved, the guillotine falls on Lovaza off label reimbursement. It will be an inevitable bow wave of scripts coming to Amrn.
Sorry, meant Q1....
Also, don't forget that in q2 the company fully expensed the purchase of $3mm of API from suppliers who were not yet approved via sNDA at that point. The API was fully expensed instead of treated as purchase of inventory due to accounting rules. But it is still inventory.
Thus, that is $3mm of inventory which has no cost associated w it. The positive is that this will help cogs in the quarter, perhaps significantly. It also will drive a cash burn reversal from the previous quarter. Also, it gives the co another quarter to exert buyer power over the multiple supplier situation that is emerging. The negative is that the street won't give the co full credit for better gross margins until this zero cost inventory has been fully pushed out through the revenue line.
ajax - no reason enrollment will decel that materially. you cant really believe this stock is dead money until reduce it results?
And of course a global big pharma could also buy AMRN with their ex-US cash, which is more lightly taxed than the US domiciled cash. If a US based multinational wants to bring cash profits earned outside of the US back to the US, they will need to pay the difference between lightly taxed foreign earned money and the generally, more lightly taxed ex US profit. As a result, big pharmas are somewhat motivated to put that ex US cash to work in M and A.
these would be shares they bought from the company at $6.50. so not sure if exercising the over allotment would do anything but create more selling pressure as citi and jef attempt to resell them...
Either
1) Post PFE restructure, they are ready to put a partnerhip on the tape
2) Selling has finally dried up and someone knows it
3) Hedge fund trying to start a short squeeze.
we will see if there is any follow through tomorrow.
Trading just exploded to the upside. Something might be up!
When Anchor hits , I'm hosting a sail on SF bay for any of the regulars on my C&C 37...
ajax - i tend to agree that it was bought to be shot in the head. i was simply stating the only reason to buy it would be to milk the gsk omega three franchise post lovaza generic. because lets face it, its a big franchise no matter how much we believe vasecpa is a category killer. if they really wanted to launch epanova, they would have waited for drug approval and they bought it. epanova approval is no layup - higher side effect profile than lovaza with no increased efficacy, plus lovaza coming off patent soon anyway. why raise the cost of healthcare for no added benefit?
combo doesnt make great sense because managed care will see right through it and crestor goes off patent soon.
i have been thinking the same thing ajax. price paid for omth was chump change. its no given that epanova will ever get approved. the only real reason to buy it was to leverage the lovaza name. they can name it lovazatwo or something and leverage how slowly docs change their behavior.
exactly - lovaza = lower highs and lower lows... epanova no guarantee for approval either.
Thero is solid.
These are just days of meetings the brokers set up w/ institutional investors. It just means they are getting out telling their story to the buy side.
also makes it more difficult and expensive for generics to compete. which supplier will be able to be as good as the four suppliers that AMRN has locked up and make pure EPA?
thus where would a new generic supplier come from, how much would it cost to get that supplier up to speed to be able to produce pure EPA and have the FDA sign off and what kind of profit could the generic supplier make if they are sole sourced with that supplier?
another decent hurdle.
holy heck batman, amrn is green...
zoo, very good thoughts on the stock.
the only negative data point from a fundamental basis we have seen in this story is mgt's indication that lovaza off label in mixed trigs was higher than they thought going in. that means Marine is smaller and that Anchor isnt 10x of Marine, which you spelled out.
The one thing that could offset increase the size of the Anchor market - even before Reduce IT - would be launch of Vascepa + generic statin in one pill. Generic lipitor would provide Vascepa w huge pull through, as docs may more easily prescribe a combo pill for pts already getting Lipitor versus a brand new script just for Vascepa. Expect more movement on this front once Anchor is approved, as this is the power alley market for a combo anyway. Marine not a great combo market, as you know, due to pancreatitis issues.
JPM didnt do anything wrong. When analyst price targets represent multiple fold returns over current price the Street discounts the research as absurd. Analysts have no problem raising price targets once they get hit...
that low ball number is good. we want the company to be way ahead of consensus estimates.
I think the last trade before the deal was announced was $6.17 (shares of AMRN were just starting to get some momentum as whomever wanted to sell in Q2 punted and selling abated as July began). As this was a bought deal (the bankers actually take ownership of the stock, instead of placing shares based on a book of orders), the bankers were not going to buy shares from the company at last trade, so they priced the deal in the hole conservatively at $5.60 per share.
I dont believe that risk management at either Citi or Jefferies would have allowed this deal to happen unless it was indeed priced pretty deep in the hole (~9.2% net of fees). Whether or not they were privy to anything material which gave them extra comfort on holding shares, who knows.
I would imagine though, they dont want to hold this stock for that long. They probably were able to re-sell some of this stock above $5.60 and net a profit. Selling pressure here could be from them, or from the big volume that occurred post the deal, or from others who are sick of the downward trajectory.
Unfortunately, feels like we need one more puke to get to the dry heave, unless of course the company feeds investors some medicine to help reduce the need to vomit. Just still a lot of stock out there without a good home.
You are probably correct Ajax but I cant blame the company for warchesting up in the off chance they get the push out until Reduce IT. At that point, they will need to the cash to get to EPS positive and ride it out. Not at all saying that will happen as I think its a long shot, but need to have things in order.
On another note I wonder why, if there is going to be a partnership, the company just doesnt try to push one now.
I would think it wouldnt be that difficult to structure a dealto get in the Marine game, as clearly AMRN cant address all PCPs with patients w severe trigliceridemia. When Anchor is approved that could trigger a nice cash milestone payment and we are off to the races on a revenue ramp w a partner.
Obviously more bargaining power once Anchor is approved, or at least Adcom is complete but seems like the company is trading off time for the potential of a better deal later.
at this point one should be resigned to the fact that it may take 3 years to get to $25, gia.
why else raise $ and begin adding modestly to the saleforce?
its not all bad though, as the company now knows where a lot of the at off label lovaza is sold and can swoop in on it without 1000 reps. At that point GSK will be a buyer, but its not for a while.
Only saving grace on the GSK OMTH buy is that perhaps AMRN is already involved with another BP and they had no choice but to go w the n-3 that gives you the trots...
So at this point, does DHA have any benefits, other than helping brain development in utero?
Williams
Im pretty sure those two patents never had the code. There were always a couple without it...
A thousand reps for eight months of Marine would have been too big a cash burn, in my opinion. 275 blazed the main trails, now the others can come behind and blazes smaller tributary trails. Good move though to keep the hiring momentum going.
Joe Z will continue to up the ante and won't take yesterday's BO price based yesterday's business progress.
Me mayhave a two year plus ride ahead of us. If we do, I think we will all go crazy, but we may end up filthy rich...
If you run just 4 pct growth a week for new scripts and 10 pct growth a week for renewals you get to some very solid run rate weeklies exiting 2013
If we have figured out the Italian study and the Seattle omega 3/ prostate study are shams, don't you think
FDA has also?
People, this will work to AMRNs advantage over time.
Do think FDA wants the public to be influenced by this quackery?
NFW.
Amrn was doing a day of meetings w institutional investors today in NYC, so if it is true, it is possible this was confirmed in a meeting today...
not overhangs, catalysts...
The OMTH application could be rejected, but given it was done under SPA, seems more reasonable they would deny approval, rather than rejecting the application?
i would think that if the nda had been rejected, omth would have disclosed it as a material event...
Sorry Raw, I meant filthy, filthy rich...
Then please short more Raw. I mean to get filthy rich off your back...
$5.6 major resistance. This is where the underwriters must be unloading the bought deal. After this, we go higher.
Mgt doing a day of meetings w institutional investors w JPM on Thurs; Fri a monster script number, hopefully...
Buy all you can at $8.
I saw the note.
Stated just as I posted previously that mgt indicated to the citi analyst that they received what they thought to be a very clean day seventy four letter, cleaner even than for Marine.
Not necessarily unexpected information, just shows how starved this stock is for something positive...
Evidently Citi saying amrn got a clean Anchor Day 74 letter today. Even cleaner than Marine.... Breezing!
And let's not forget PCPs have zero interest in losing patients to cardiologists and specialists. They are motivated to get the very high trigs under control on their own. They want revenue also. They will prescribe Vascepa.
Would be great to be going DTC now, but doesn't make much sense till Anchor when tv commercials will be everywhere. They need to be thoughtful with the cash right now until Anchor approval. In the draconian scenario, they need to be modeling for cash flow positive on Marine and GIA.